Forecastingtechniques
AUDJPY - FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL BIAS#AUDJPY
Due to MARKET RISK being on in the previous days, AUDJPY is slightly UP. But even now we see that the MARKET is somewhat MARKET RISK ON. We expect AUDJPY to RETRACE to higher resistance.
Anyway, if AUDJPY goes DOWNSIDE again, VIX should go up, JPY should go up, and STOCKS should go down. The dollar should continue to strengthen in this way. If MARKET RISK is ON, you can definitely BUY at 96.21 LEVEL. Currently, MARKET RISK is ON. But somehow it may go down to 89.74 LEVEL before going UP. After that, AUDJPY may go up to 96.31 LEVEL.
To buy AUDJPY, VIX must be DOWN and SNP500 must be UP. Further, the TREND LINE should be BREAK. And COMMODITIES should definitely be UP. We are waiting for the change in the above mentioned MARKETS.
If the dollar is strengthened by the FED, MARKETS RISK should be off. Then after JPY STRONG, AUDJPY can be LONG TERM BUY.
USDJPY - CURRENT SENTIMENT , FUNDAMENTAL BIAS#USDJPY
- USDJPY is currently BUYing. The reason for that is that with US ECONOMIC DATA being POSITIVE, UJ was BUY very well until last week. And FED UPDATES were very POSITIVE. Another major reason was that the dollar continued to strengthen on Friday's LABOR DATA. So JPY went down automatically in previous days. But with the intervention of the BANK OF JAPAN, there is now a very good demand for YEN in the market.
- At the moment, the MARKET is taking a bit of RISK OFF, that's why the JPY is going up. According to the USDJPY ANALYSIS we provided earlier, the USDJPY UPSIDE WAVE is currently UP around 120 ++ PIPS.
- There is definitely a high chance that USDJPY will go down a bit more and move to 143.536 LEVEL. The reason for that is because the MARKETS RISK OFF is already happening, so it can happen. After that USDJPY price can go up to 148.194 LEVEL. We focus on MARKET UPDATES and MARKET SENTIMENT. Follow the given MARKET STRUCTURE.
Gold analysis and signal🧐No comment!
Everything is visible in the chart!
✅ ✅ Risk warning, disclaimer: the above is a personal market judgment and analysis based on published information and historical chart data on The trading view,
And only some of these analyzes are my actual real trades.
I hope Traders consider I am Not responsible for your trades and investment decision.
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✅ Please write any advice or suggestions.
Dear friends, request any cryptocurrency pair, currencies pair for forex, and any index that you want to be analyzed, and ask any questions about chart analysis.
Thanks for your attention
CADJPY : Current Situation & Technical , Fundamental View#CADJPY
- At this point, CADJPY is selling very well due to the current MARKET SENTIMENT. So CAD automatically went down. Also, unexpectedly, a JPY STRONG came in the last few days. This was because the Bank of Japan intervened to strengthen the JPY.
- But after that the price of OIL went down very fast. Due to this reason CAD was sold very fast before. You can check it by going to CAD CHARTS.
But now with JPY WEAKNESS, CADJPY is selling very fast.
- Currently, the MARKET is slightly RISK OFF, JPY is going UP, therefore, CADJPY is being SELL.
- Definitely CADJPY should be slightly DOWN until 102.91 LEVEL. After that, the possibility of moving to 110.06 LEVEL is very high. The reason for that is because even now OIL PRICES are going up a bit.
NG Backwardation PlayClassic backwardation scenario, a textbook move. Major supply disruptions at Prelude floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility in Australia, Nord stream at 20% flow, and a lag between demand and LNG deliveries to Europe will likely drive prices higher, but we are betting on what we know, the difference between spot and the August contract. We can expect the future price, to converge towards the spot price, making this position a long.
ABANDON SHIP! *Says the blind mind* - How to trade the bottomTL;DR - While the 28-32k resistance area was a very high probability reversal zone to form another lower range boundary for our big pappa Bitcoin (a range built between 65k and 30k), extreme market volatility has pushed prices much lower. Because of this extreme volatility and major bearish market sentiment you CAN NOT try to catch a falling knife and instead should wait for a retrace-off key resistance to enter give the wider bearish structure. Even though there is an extremely high probability this is the bottom, everyone and their grandma was saying that at 30k. Risk management and appropriate trading is the only thing that will keep you in the game for the long run despite how amazing a trading opportunity might be.
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Wow what a huge amount of panic there has been. Just half a year ago people were calling for 100k Bitcoin and now the whole world has collapsed. Risk management was the only thing that stopped players from getting liquidated and holy hell has this been a liquidation event.
I am going to keep this post short:
My previous series of analysis pointed to the fact that bitcoin was building a large range between 65k (upper range boundary) and 30k (lower range boundary). As we were on the 28-32k support and at the lower edges of the range, this was a high probability area for bitcoin to reverse and make another attempt at the all time highs. Probability of this was heavily tainted towards a bullish breakout of the range as the previous trend (before reaching 65k in early 2020), had been bullish. But sometimes in trading, even if probability is in your favour that 10/20% thing can still happen and in this case... it did.
Given this we must start afresh with our analysis and start to find a new range low. The context for this is clear and the chart above shows this - On the higher timeframes (weekly and monthly) Bitcoin broke out of its range built between 2017-2020, trended to 65k in an epic bull run and is now forming an even bigger range to digest prices. We have built an upper range boundary at 65k and we are now searching for a new lower range boundary. As mentioned above, the probability is tainted bullish as price action since Bitcoins birth has consistently trended bullish, then ranged. This is not opinion this is technical analysis fact and so with probability in our favour we look for this trend to continue.
Within this higher timeframe range (daily/weekly) we have formed a bearish trend (4H/daily) that has pushed price down from 65k area to the 17k low. Here is where we start looking for certain price action that increases the probability that this bearish trend has ended and we are instead building a bottom. The process of finding this bottom / lower range boundary is done by first neutralising all the bearish pressure / sentiment. Markets never (or very very rarely) go from one extreme thought (trending bullish or bearish) to the other. Much like within life, they cycle through phases with a neutral point in between their ebs and flow (or oscilations). In this case, we have been trending bearish and so it is very likely that we will range or at least retrace heavily at these lower levels in order to build a bottom. As you may have heard, bottoming is a process not a single event - I know it sounds bad because its human nature to find the best prices but in reality waiting for the later stages of this bottoming process offers a significantly better risk/reward as you have evidence that price will not collapse and so your money is safer. Just like at 30k when everyone was calling this "the bottom", markets can go crazy and so waiting is always the best option even if you don't get the best prices.
The chart above (and the first one in this post) shows you what the bottoming process is likely to look like. It is not a certainty and with the lower risk comes the low probability that price just keeps chugging upwards. But to create a bottom it is very often that a retrace occurs after the first bullish price action starts following the bearish trend. In this case the 28-32k resistance area is the most likely candidate for that resistance to show up and push prices down somewhat for a better entry. Don't get me wrong, bullishness can go further but at some point there will be a retrace. We get two important bits of information for waiting for this retrace (and believe me, every professional trader will be waiting for this information as well):
1: Using Fibonachi levels we can find high probability reversal areas that allow us to watch for appropriate signals (with buying happening either at the 50%/61%/78% fib levels)
2: These high probability areas tell us the strength of the bullish price action - if we only retrace 50% of the bullish move from the bottom as opposed to 78% then that shows us that buyers are buying heavily and are in control. This gives a higher probability of further bullishness. With this information we can gauge where to take profits - a weak bounce off 78% fib will mean lower profit targets and a potential break of the 20k area towards 11k, where as a strong bounce off 50% will mean no profit taking until the 50k area.
That is it. It is that simple. The complexity in trading comes with controlling your emotional bias. How many people (including massive firms like 3AC) were unable to control their emotional involvement in the market and so went too big too quickly. Unlike them, you must trade in a cold hard calculative way, ignoring greed, fear and uncertainty and instead patiently waiting for favourable opportunities to emerge where probability is in your favour. Buying now is not favourable as, even though the bottom is in, we just don't KNOW that it is and so we must wait for a more appropriate entry where we can gauge risk. If you do that 100 times over your life you will be a millionaire, but if you mess up once you can lose everything. That is the game we play.
P.
BITCOIN and the 800 EMA- What You should know!Padawans,
Bitcoin has been reacting to the 800 Ema since the 24th of January 2022. Most people like to use the 50, 100, 200 day MA`s or EMA`s. However I like to use the 800 day EMA.
On the 9th of April 2024, Bitcoin broke the trendline formed on February 24th, it retested that trendline Yesterday on the 10th of April and was rejected. However what I want you to take note of something:
If we take a look at the chart we will notice on the 24th of January we had a test of the 800 EMA followed by the evaporation of selling pressure followed by a move to the upside resulting in a green candle
On the 24th of February again there was move downwards towards the 800 day EMA, followed by the evaporation of selling pressure followed by a move to the upside resulting in a green candle and a new trendline being formed
Take note that with each of the above mentioned events we are forming Higher Highs
So what Am I Looking For
First a test a retrace to $38735, which is 0.236 of the Fibs and also a convergence at that point with the downward trendline
Then I am looking for a wick to make a move downwards towards the 800 ema and if the same confluence of events happen as happened on the 24th of January and 24th of February
then, in my mind you will have confirmation of the resumption of an uptrend and is this happens
Padawan- Hand me my Lightsaber
SOLUSD Trend and Wave analysis (Wave Elliot + Divergence) Big drop in prices on cryptocurrencies.
It is in the C wave and initially the price fall with the Elliott wave. In this analysis, it seems that the price will move down. The Stop loss and Take profit are marked on the price chart.
The price trend is down and there is a divergence in the charts. In many cryptocurrencies, the price growth seems to be over.
The wave you see in the future price on the chart is a schematic of a possible price trend and will not be formed just to clarify the possible price movement.
This is a personal analysis and should not be considered a criterion for buying or selling. Please pay attention to the Take profit and Stop loss. Cryptos show emotional and unforeseen price behavior.
I use Elliott and Price Action in my analysis, and my analysis is based on that. The structure of the Elliott wave count is complex and different patterns are formed in the chart, so there is a possibility of a change in the price movement of the price.
Next 10 Days of BITCOIN Price PivotsExperimental Price Pivot Method.
The red lines are from a slightly different method than the regular ones.
There are some very important pivot dates coming over the next coming weeks.
Nov 30/Dec 1....and Dec 3/4 and Dec 7th ...you may want to pay particular attention to.
This isn't perfect or exhaustive but perhaps someone will find it useful. Good luck.
Click the play button to see how it goes.
I'll post a much larger and more extended one later...this isn't the one I work from, although that one is a work in progress as well.
AUDNZD POTENTIALAs we can see
Audnzd made falling wedge pattern and he was break it and try to making new bullish structure
here we go , we can see the first higher high and higher low after he breakout falling wedge
and also we can see the price still respect at support level as well
so for me , ii'l waiting for confirmation breakout and make next higher high
we can entry and waiting the best confirmation on lower timeframe
thankyou ~
EURGBP Long positionAfter sideway with a high ATR, I think EURGBP needs to do something truly huge. Maybe a pump wave or... dump wave? Based the basically to reading the Volume Profile, I think EURGPB has potentially to pump to the 0.868xx area. What is your oppinion. Let's share with me your view and following this trade together.
BTC near-term projectionHere in this simplistic post we are on the 1-Month chart. A proper Fibonacci retracement shows that the golden zone for longs has indeed been rejected once so far into this deep fall of BTC. Usually support is tested about 3 times before making a bigger move up if bullish which I believe it is. So far a very health correction to BTC long bullish blue candles on the month chart. I expect the currency to quickly recover lost ground in the coming weeks if it respects the 0.5-.618 zones. If .764 red zone is breached, then all is lost and further red candles will arise.
$UAVS AgEagle Aerial Systems, Inc. designs, develops, produces, distributes, and supports unmanned aerial vehicles for the precision agriculture industry in the United States and internationally. It offers FarmLens, a subscription based cloud analytics service that processes data collected with a drone for use by farmers and agronomists; HempOverview, a software-as-a-solution web- and map-based technology platform to support the operations of domestic industrial hemp programs for state and tribal nation departments of agriculture, growers, and processors; and ParkView, a proprietary aerial imagery and data analytics platform for assessing and supporting sustainability initiatives involving municipal, state, and federal public parks and recreation areas. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Wichita, Kansas.
GBP/NZDGood day Traders !! On this multi-timeframe analysis we will make a full breakdown of this pair.
Monthly : We have an "M" formation and we do expect a retracement to the neckline which is in confluence with the FIB level 0.618 .
Weekly : Wa are currently in an acsending channel and we are creating an overextended W formation and we expect price to move higher. .
Daily : "W" Formation completed after the retest of the neckline and we expect a continuation to the upside .
COT : Institution have been Increasing net positions in GBP since they added more than 6700 long positions and closed to 4600 Short position during the last report.
From an NZD perspective we are looking at a steady NZD against a strong GBP on the short term .
8H: Bullish environment . we are printing HH and HLs.
MACD: Bullish environment
EMAs : Cut for long
We have two trading setups with two potential targets in the mid-long term.
Now if you enjoyed this analysis smash that like button and share. If you have a different opinion please leave a comment below as I would love to get more insights and ideas. I also linked my previous idea about this asset. Let me know in the comment below which pair you'd like me to cover in my next analysis.
Trade safe !!!