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Foreignexchange

Will the Australian Dollar Survive the Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate dance of global financial markets, the Australian dollar stands at a critical crossroads, facing a confluence of economic challenges that threaten its stability. The convergence of complex factors—including the Federal Reserve's cautious monetary policy, China's economic headwinds, and Australia's domestic economic pressures—creates a perfect storm of uncertainty that challenges traditional economic assumptions and investor strategies. The current landscape reveals a nuanced battleground where geopolitical tensions, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic indicators intersect with unprecedented complexity. Projections suggest the Australian dollar could potentially decline to 62 cents against the U.S. dollar in early 2025, a forecast that speaks to deeper structural challenges facing the Australian economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia's delicate balancing act—managing persistent inflation, maintaining economic growth, and responding to global economic shifts—epitomizes the sophisticated challenges confronting modern monetary policy. Beyond just numbers, this economic narrative reflects a significant test of resilience and adaptability. Investors and economic strategists face a unique moment of transformation, where conventional economic models are being challenged by unprecedented global dynamics. The interaction between U.S. monetary policy, China's economic challenges, and Australia's domestic economic strategy creates an intriguing intellectual puzzle that requires sophisticated analysis and a forward-thinking approach. As the global economic landscape continues to evolve, the Australian dollar's journey becomes a microcosm of broader economic transformations. This is not simply a story of currency fluctuation, but a testament to the complex, interconnected nature of global financial systems—where every decision, from central bank policies to geopolitical strategies, can send rippling consequences through international markets. The true measure of economic strength lies not in avoiding challenges but in the ability to navigate them with insight, agility, and strategic foresight.
Short
by signalmastermind
Will Most Stable Currency Pair Finally Break Its 20-Year PatternThe foreign exchange market stands at a pivotal crossroads as the seemingly unshakeable euro-dollar relationship faces its most significant test since the 2022 energy crisis. Traditional market dynamics are being challenged by an unprecedented confluence of factors: the return of Trump-era trade policies, escalating geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, and diverging monetary paths between the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. This perfect storm has pushed the euro to levels not seen since October 2023, prompting leading financial institutions to reassess their long-held assumptions about currency stability. What makes this moment particularly compelling is the broader economic context. While previous threats to euro-dollar parity emerged from singular crises, today's challenge stems from structural shifts in global trade architecture. Deutsche Bank's analysis suggests that proposed trade policies could fundamentally alter international capital flows, with the potential to drive the euro below parity to 0.95 or lower – a scenario that would rewrite modern forex history. This isn't merely about numbers; it's about a potential reshaping of global economic power dynamics. The most intriguing aspect of this development lies in its timing. As we approach a period traditionally characterized by dollar weakness – December has seen the greenback decline in eight of the past ten years – markets face a fascinating contradiction. Will historical seasonal patterns prevail, or are we witnessing the emergence of a new paradigm in currency markets? The answer could reshape investment strategies across the globe and challenge long-held beliefs about currency market dynamics. For investors and market observers alike, the coming months promise to deliver one of the most compelling chapters in recent financial history.
Short
by signalmastermind
USDCHF: Key Level Rejection, Retracement ExpectedPrice recently broke out of the daily (D) descending channel. It then pushed up to meet the daily (D) 50% Fibonacci retracement level, converging with resistance. Price then rejected this level and pushed down to retest support before breaking out of the four-hour (4H) downtrend line. Price then pushed up and reached the daily (D) key level and converged with yet another 50% Fibonacci level. Price seems to be rejecting this level, highlighting temporary reversal and suggesting a possible retracement. I expect price to temporarily retrace to around the 38.2% level before continuing to the upside. **Rationale:** ~ Breakout of Channel (D) ~ Retest of Support (D) ~ Break of Trendline ~ Retest of Support ~ Rejection Candlesticks ~ Break of Nested Trendline ~ 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement **Disclaimer:** My trading ideas are market predictions and therefore should be viewed as such. As an intraday trader (scalper), I use my observations to identify potential trade opportunities on the higher time frames. I then aim to pinpoint key entry points on the lower time frames. Entries should always be verified by additional confirmations. --- #scalping #intraday
Short
by Forexity
How To Read Currency PairsHere's a quick and comprehensive guide on how you can read currency pairs as a forex trader! As usual my objective is to simplify all aspects of trading, so that even someone who has never seen a chart before, can make sense of the topic at hand. Let's get into it - Currency pairs are a combination of 2 different currencies and we can trade them based on how they are compared to each other in terms of price (weighted against each other). How can we use this to make money? 1. Understand the Exchange Rate Let's assume that the current exchange rate for EURUSD is 1.10, that means of €1 is valued at $1.10. 2. Buy Euros If you start with $1000 and you believe the exchange rate may increase in the future, it would be a good idea to convert your Dollars into Euros at the current rate. $1000 / 1.10 (exchange rate) = €909.09 3. Wait for Appreciation Now, let's assume the exchange rate increases to 1.15. This means that €1 is now worth $1.15. 4. Exchange Back to Dollars With your 909.09 Euros, you can convert them back into Dollars at the new exchange rate. €909.09 x 1.15 (new exchange rate) = $1045.45 So, in this example, you've potentially made a profit of $45.45 by anticipating and benefiting from a favorable change in the exchange rate. Major Currency pairs CAPITALCOM:EURUSD CAPITALCOM:GBPUSD FX:USDJPY OANDA:USDCHF OANDA:AUDUSD OANDA:NZDUSD FX:USDCAD Minor Currency Pairs FX:EURGBP OANDA:EURAUD FOREXCOM:GBPJPY OANDA:AUDJPY OANDA:NZDJPY FX:EURJPY OANDA:GBPAUD FX:AUDNZD OANDA:EURCAD FX:GBPCAD That's a mouthful to take in so I'll leave you there. Hope this post helps and as usual... Happy Hunting Predators 🦁🐯🦈
Education
by Apexfx_Alpha
Global debt hits record $307 trillion, debt ratios climb -IIFGlobal debt reached a record high of $307 trillion in the second quarter, despite higher interest rates limiting bank lending. The United States and Japan were the main drivers of this increase, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The IIF's report revealed that global debt in dollar terms rose by $10 trillion in the first half of 2023 and by $100 trillion over the past decade. This surge in debt has pushed the global debt-to-GDP ratio to 336% for the second consecutive quarter. The report attributes this rise to a slowdown in economic growth and price increases, resulting in nominal GDP expanding at a slower pace than debt levels. Emre Tiftik, Director of Sustainability Research at the IIF, noted that the debt-to-GDP ratio is once again increasing after declining for seven consecutive quarters, mostly due to easing inflationary pressures. The IIF expects the debt-to-output ratio to surpass 337% by the end of the year, as wage and price pressures continue to moderate. Experts and policymakers have been warning about the growing levels of debt, which can lead countries, corporations, and households to tighten their belts and reduce spending and investments, ultimately impacting economic growth and living standards. More than 80% of the recent increase in debt came from developed countries, with the United States, Japan, Britain, and France experiencing the largest increases. Among emerging markets, China, India, and Brazil saw the highest rises in debt. This is a notable shift, as emerging markets are exhibiting a better trend compared to developed markets for the first time in a while, according to Todd Martinez, co-head of the Americas sovereign team at Fitch Ratings. The report also highlighted that household debt-to-GDP in emerging markets is still higher than pre-COVID-19 levels, primarily driven by China, Korea, and Thailand. However, mature markets have seen the lowest household debt-to-GDP ratio in two decades during the first half of this year. Tiftik mentioned that consumer debt burdens appear manageable, and if inflationary pressures persist, the health of household balance sheets, particularly in the United States, will provide some protection against further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. While markets currently do not anticipate a near-term rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the target rate is expected to remain between 5.25% and 5.5% until at least May of next year. This sustained high rate in the U.S. could put pressure on emerging markets as investors prioritize the less risky developed world for investment.
by HiumanPre
2
USOIL:i think it will continue to fall Hello traders, I think crude oil will continue to fall, what do you think? From the 4 hour chart Near 79 is the support level of the last few rebounds. I think it can be regarded as a short-term watershed. If this support level is broken, the downside will open below. Conversely, if support is formed here again, you can wait to buy short positions near 80.7. From a margin perspective, the downside is significantly higher than the upside. Judging from the current K-line distribution, the signal of peaking at the high level is obvious, so I think it will fall below here, and then accelerate the decline. Therefore, in terms of strategy, 79sell tp is around 77.3, and it will be around 76 after breaking the position If you agree with my point of view, welcome to follow TVC:USOIL FX:USOILSPOT BLACKBULL:USOIL.F
TVC:USOILShort
by Gina-lovestotrade
XAUUSD:I think it will rise first and then fall Hello traders, I think gold will first go up to around 1966-1970, then if it can't break through 1970, it will start to fall, what do you think? From the 4-hour chart, there is a little pressure around 1962 above, but the upward trend is strong, so I think this position will still break through, and then look at the important pressure before 1970 above. It is more difficult to break through 1970, and it is an opportunity to short. The specific strategy is: if you want to buy more at the current point, please hold a small amount, TP1966-1970, or wait and see with a short position, and wait for shorting around 1970 Short near 1970, near tp1935 If you agree with my point of view, welcome to follow COMEX:GC1! TVC:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gina-lovestotrade
2
Eur/Usd: A sell-side trade for now. Hello traders. I have executed a sell side trade in Euro/ Dollar pair. This will possibly turn out to be a short term trade. As you can see, I've marked the areas clearly with several crosses signifying liquidity and order blocks sitting at those marked zones. The Euro/Dollar pair will grab and mitigate these zones before any move. The second reason for executing this trade is the Market shift which I've again marked for myself to see the reactions after the shift. The fair value gap has been created and now I've opened my short position from a discounted range. I can also see some sort of trend line liquidity which has formed.
Short
by YuaishQureshi
GBP / USD - Yearly Chart Concern!Today I am charting the GBP (Great British Pound) / USD (US Dollar) on a yearly chart over a multi-year period. I put it on a parallel channel and noticed on the yearly chart that multiple bear flags have been forming. The next bear flag formation measured move is around 0.78-0.80. Let's hope it reverses! This is a multi-year chart so don't expect everything to move quickly. When zooming out, the GBP / USD looks bearish. What are your opinions on this? I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
by MillionaireEconomics
1
GOLD - TRADERS WHO USE TRENDLINE, WHERE YOU GUYS AT?BUY POSITION ON GOLD I have seen this setup with the help of RSI, Trendline, and as well as Multi-TF Analysis. We have seen the price has bounced off on 1730 key support level yesterday and we took advantage of the bounce play in which we've made 100+ pips. I have put the SL just below the trendline in case price makes a u-turn. This is a quick play since my overall bias with gold is still bearish. TP on the retest of our 200EMA (our indicator for long term trend) 1.21RR
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JuanCrlsTrades
GBPJPY Ready To Burst Into Action!The forex market has been silent for many years now, so there haven’t been many opportunities to jump into trend-following positions. We have to remain patient during quiet times and keep an eye on the calm markets even when placing positions in more active markets. The GBPJPY is showing signs that watching the quiet market may pay off. Price is setting up for a potential long-term bullish opportunity. Price went into consolidation from the low in October 2016 at 124.78. It moved sideways for almost six years before finally breaking above the consolidation resistance level at 156.60. The breakout occurred in March 2022. Price continued up and then started to decline and came down to retest the consolidation resistance turned support in May. We then had a bounce off support and now price is looking strong and heading back to the upside. If a breakout occurs above the April high at 168.43 then we are likely to see a continuation to the upside. This could result in an uptrend lasting several weeks or months. Expect updates on this chart if we have a breakout. If you like enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Long
by Sublime_Trading
EUR/USD!Euro is weakening! What's NEXT?EUR/USD. The Euro began to fall against the Dollar due to Russia's attack on Ukraine. Conflict in Europe is a high risk and unpredictability of investment in the European economy leads to capital outflow to safer markets. The outflow of capital from the EU goes to the U.S. market, which causes Euro to fall against the Dollar. The price is now at 1.10 level and it is very close to the lows of 2016 when the price fell to a record low of 1.03. If the key level of 1.06 will be broken, a false breakout of this level is very possible, as it shown on the chart. Friends, push the like button, write a comment, and share with your mates - that would be the best THANK YOU. P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy. Always make your analysis before a trade.
by Yuriy_Bishko
5
DXY - D1 - DOUBLE TOP IN PROGRESS !The Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a potential double top formation in progress on a daily chart. DAILY (D1) Ongoing downside price action, after having, yesterday, broken both the Tenkan-Sen and the Mid Bollinger Band, this morning the DXY is attempting to also breakout the Kijun-Sen which should be seen as the last important support level in that time frame. A failure to hold above it (95.96) would directly put the focus on lower levels, towards 95.51 which is the trigger level of the double top formation in progress and if broken would activate this reversal formation calling for a technical target @ 94.09 which is, currently, also the clouds bottom support area on this daily time frame. WEEKLY (W1) Still in an ongoing uptrend but lack of follow through, confirmed by several "dojis" in a row is likely to trigger a trend reversal! In addition, the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 96.10 has been filled but, so far, each upside continuation attempt has been rejected. In that weekly time frame, the next significant support is @ 95.11 and a failure to stay above it would be an additional warning signal, calling for further downside towards the double top technical target @ 94'09 above mentioned, which also coincides with the weekly cluster support level of MBB and KS. MONTHLY (M1) The DXY failed on the last monthly closing basis (in November) to upside breakout the clouds resistance area ! Therefore, December monthly closing should be watch at very carefully and that will give more clues for the upcoming months on a long term view. Finally, watch carefully price action on shorter intraday time frames which will help you to validate or invalidate my technical view. CONCLUSION : Only a sustainable recovery, on a daily basis closing observation, above the 97.00 area would force to a reassessment of my expected bearish scenario.
TVC:DXYShort
by Ironman8848
AMAZING SHORTS ON NZDUSD!Here on Nzdusd we can see that on the 15min time frame price has formed a triple top. Price also struggles to break our previous resistance level and the descending trend line. Both moving averages are also bearish so we can see that bears currently have control of the market. On the 1 hour time frame price is also currently forming lower lows and lower highs and price has just formed a new lower high, giving us extra reason to believe price will drop and potentially create new lower lows. Hope you enjoy this analysis and check out my page for plenty more to come!
Short
by FOREXWITHD