USD/JPYUSD recovery lately on the DXY has seen price come back up to tough on previous highs, the double top hear could have been a great spot for a reversal to the downside or a break and retest long towards the next EQ around 112.
The short offers a much higher RR for the mid term but I cant ignore the fact the DXY was regaining strength and the volume increasing towards the double top and break.
Expecting to see this break out to the upside for a short/mid term run low R trade for me
Foreignexchange
GBFCHF Reversed Head & Shoulder and go up My advisor Marketmiracle generated a LONG signal on GBPCHF with a target of 1,2854
Although the previous signal has not yet given the expected results of this fact and this fact is a confirmation of the previous, analyzing the graph it would seem that even the premises of basic technical analysis are there.
The price seems to draw an upside down head and shoulders, is close to the previous lower support and is about to cross a dynamic support of much longer period.
If this is not enough, the moving average at 200 periods is immediately below the price.
As far as cash flows are concerned, these are increasingly being supported by large investors in favour of the GBP appreciation.
Let’s see if even this time the price will continue to fall.. I think not.
GJ Scalp to Swing BreakdownFundamentals: UK opening schools starting March 08, 2021 and ultimately opening businesses in summer. JPY is reporting double-digit GDP growth despite being in a state of emergency. A lot of optimism for GBP due to the economy opening up again.
Technical: Looking for partials at 150.100, reduce SL (not yet to BE), scale in as price retraces (which it will since there has been a huge rally up), take partials and trail SL for both entries with runners to 154.
GBPCHF POTENTIAL SCENARIOSGiven the recent market moves and macro economic factors surrounding the GBP, we have outlined two potential scenarios for GBPCHF given the current levels that are in play. The 1.22 level has not been broken since September 2019, if we see a bullish weekly close above the level as well as a retest, we can expect price to move (Long Term) to around the 1.27 region with areas of resistance coming it at 1.24.
If price is to respect the 1.22 once again as previously done, we can expect price to push further back down to our 1.19 / 1.18 region once again.
The first entry that was taken at 1.18 has been closed partially at 1.22, with currently 40% of the initial position running. (Stop Loss running at +200pips)
XRPUSD BreakdownSimple Technical and Fundamental Analysis. As I mention in the video several times, cryptocurrency is a very new asset class that has recently started to attract large/institutional investors. Alike any new asset class, cryptocurrency can be moved heavily by fundamentals. When I saw the three major fundamentals released along with the technical analysis alignment, a bullish movement was anticipated and I identified minor levels/zones that had to be respected to take entries. The last 4 entries were taken using the same indications provided by price action.
Who is behind the stock market rally since November?As the chart explains, US people made a historic dash for cash in November.
Foreign investors didn't gobble up US assets.
US bond prices trended down too, tracking the declines in USD.
So, who is buying stocks, and when do they run out of money?
Thoughts?
Turkish Lira sells the rumour of a rate hike: buy the news?Hello traders.
I have been in a bit of a pickle this month: between elections in the US and a stalling EUR/USD,
my demo took a bit of a hit (more than I care to tell) and one big mistake was to go long SP500
on the NYSE open the very day that a Covid19 vaccine was announced... There was optimism on
Wall Street and I was looking for some direction in anything that had candlesticks to its name...
I got caught out in a false move AND the platform froze for several hours, before I could work out
stops etc. I lost 75k of paper money, which really hurt my pride and my record.
I have gone about reconstructing my account and really giving myself a big talk about never trusting
the media on 'optimism' stories when it comes to my own trading. Sitting on your hands for several
weeks is indeed what you sometimes have to do, but it does become difficult if that has not been
necessary for some time.
I have looked at Bitcoin, again ignoring media stories but actually genuinely trying to get in on the
latest swing high, though now it is showing RSI divergence on the daily and looking like it is struggling,
thus I am staying out of that one for now.
My other two trades are: USD/MXN long, which looks to be worth holding on to for a wide target, as
it is quite oversold and testing former resistance (now support) from 2018 and 2019, around the 20,000-20,100 mark;
the second trade is EUR/TRY long, which takes me to the topic of this video.
In the rate hike of today, what did the Turkish central bank hope to achieve? Stem inflation and rescue the ongoing
currency crisis. Erdogan is somehow changing his tune with the newly appointed governor, probably tired of watching
his beloved Lira falling by more than 30 percent this year alone (on top of more losses before that) and forcing a rate hold
on the central bank.
My contention is that the last few days we say a 10,000+ pip sell-off that was on the anticipation of the hike, whereas action
today was quite muted (although still bearish) and that seems to suggest that Lira buying is done - buy the rumour, sell the news -
thus it is back to business as before, selling Lira (and watching the decade-old USD/TRY uptrend continue).
I go into more detail, so please look at my volume analysis through MSCI iShares Turkey ETF to get a sense of how I am looking at
this long trade as a goer.
Thanks for watching!
See you in my next
Francesco (FreeFX)
USDTRY Supported By The 20sma Again!The USDTRY has consistently been using the 20 simple moving as support since breaking out of consolidation
in August and has risen by 11.7% in that time.
Catching this trend near the start would have positioned you well to add compounds along the way.
Recently price experienced a steep fall which would have raised concerns for many traders out there.
But looking at the bigger picture of a bullish trend and identifying the 20sma as a potential support level,
would have reduced the chances of allowing fear to creep in.
The bearish candle we saw on the 9th November closed below the 20sma but found support at the
8.0000 round number.
Now that a potential support zone has been established. We need to see a bounce from this level and
eventually a break and close above the current high at 8.5777.
In the meantime, we will continue to manage our positions which are running in profit.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Turnaround ✅ In our last EUR/USD update, we stated that a direct turnaround might be happening. However, we indicated that with a breach of $1.17094, we have to expect further bearish action. The market made a decision by trading below the mentioned level. We then reached our turnaround zone, and the bulls took over as expected. We believe that wave 4 is completed, and we are on the way to higher quotations.
Happy Trading!
USD/MXN BEARISH TREND If you took my trade setup last week, congrats we caught some pips baby!! This pair is currently in a bearish downtrend. The pair on this 4hr chart recently revisited the resistance area at 22.16913 which is currently holding. if we close below this resistance area, we may see a retest of the 21.91810 support zone and we may even see price head to support area 21.46403
EURUSD 1D/TF OutlookHey traders, hope all is well!
Firstly, this Analysis of EURUSD is conducted also with reference to my previous Analysis of this currency pair which was uploaded on
the 13th April, so please do check that out as well!
Please like and follow my content to support more trade ideas/opportunities which i can share with you traders!
Now, let's begin with the technicals:
EURUSD has been consolidating between Highs and Lows since the beginning of March. Throughout the first quarter, the Euro had reached a new high of 1.13500, since the second quarter of 2019.
On the 1hr/Tf chart, we identify a pattern called 'hammer' suggesting to us a bullish outlook for up to 12 hours.
EMA (Exponential Moving Average) poses to us a bullish rally towards the upside with Higher highs and Higher lows.
According to our 4hr/Tf, price was moving steadily in consolidation before we managed to identify a breakout towards the upside @1.09794
Given that our previous high has been broken @ 1.11318, we now expect price to continue to surge, ultimately reaching our level of resistance @1.13525
Fundamentals:
Countries in Europe are continuing to reopen their economies and remove barriers to support businesses and encourage domestic spending, amid a decline in Covid-19 cases.
Severity of US Protests widens with rioters causing destruction to most popular cities.
Global market demand for the dollar declining.
Economic Calendar/Important events for EUR/USD:
* Wednesday 3rd June: Eurozone Services PMI (High Volatility).
* Thursday 4th June: ISM (Institute Supply Management) Non manufacturing PMI (High Volatility).
* Friday 5th June: EIA (Energy Info Administration) Natural Gas Storage Report (High Volatility).
XAU/USD; GOLD Analysis Via 4hr/TF Hey guys, recently the market has been extremely unpredictable considering current market conditions and Its impact on a wide range of things such as Stocks, Commodities and Foreign Exchange etc.
This is my first analysis conducted on a commodity; XAU/USD which should be really interesting!
Please do not forget to follow/like my content for more trade ideas and possible trade signals/opportunities.
As we begin trading for the first time in June, we notice the market slowly beginning to recover as the COVID-19 pandemic eases worldwide. Recently, we had oil prices decline to a negative figure which we've never seen since 1995, due to a contraction in global demand for oil. Although, as markets slowly began to make a recovery, oil prices have climbed back up towards its short term average price.
Now, let's talk GOLD!
Since the 1st Feb, Gold has rallied to near historic highs significantly from 1200.000 to a current high of 1742.000
According to technical analysis, we identify a source of exponential growth particularly on the Monthly given higher highs and higher lows. In regards to our 4/hr time frame, from the 18th May bullish structure was broken as sellers began entering the market, driving price towards a descending bearish structure of consolidation. Ultimately, we see that the descending order of bearish structure was broken as there was an increased amount of buy pressure @1700.000, where more buyers decided to enter the market. Despite being in between the descending market structure, we see that price rejected and price failed to pullback down, breaking above the SMA and our point of resistance @1718.545
With price breaking our second "Purple vertical line" indicating our point of resistance, we now expect it to continue to surge upwards towards our previous high, which ultimately would be our new level of support if price further escalates above that level.
Triple Head (H&S) Completed - Gold Will Now Descend Into ChannelI already made a small joke about this head and shoulders looking more like a triple head in my previous analysis, and even though it did not play out very cleanly, we can see the right shoulder has been completed. The top ($1722) was slightly lower than you might have expected ($1740), but we are seeing a new downtrend starting now.
I expect the price to follow this downtrend for a while. A lot of people have put their money into gold as a safe investment, but will be slowly pulling it out of gold and into the stock markets again as the economy seems to recover from the Corona crisis.
The price did open with a bullish momentum, so keep your stop loss tight around the 1725 level. It could be great for your risk reward that the price has increased a little bit so you can short from a higher level. Don't wait too long before you enter this trade as your risk reward will reduce as it lowers more.
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- Trading Guru
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Disclaimer!
This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!