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Foreignexchange

Channel Retest Coming, but First...The market has fallen back toward the lower channel line. We can expect it to complete the move by returning fully for a retest, where it will either reverse or break through the trendline (lower red line). However, there is a short-term price barrier which must be overcome before a retest is possible, which may have gone relatively unnoticed. Observe the first swing down after the prior retest of the upper trendline. This is the range from the point labelled A to the point labelled B. When Fibonacci divisions are taken of this range, and translated such that the 0 line aligns with the high at point C, the result is the yellow levels shown. The reason the levels are moved to align with point C is because that is where the second downward swing begins. That is, we are checking for the levels where the second downward swing is proportional to the first swing down. You will notice that the 1.618 level has been tested by the current candlestick which has thus far retraced a bit. This has potential to act as support. However, it is equally likely that the support is only short-term and will be broken soon to make the retest. It is possible that the market responds strongly to this level and doesn't even reach the lower channel line. For traders waiting for a long at the lower channel line, be aware of this level and the potential support it may provide. It should also be noted that if the market does break below the 1.618 level for a retest of the channel line and the market reverses, it may find its first resistance at this 1.618 level if the polarity flips.
Long
by Quantium_Research
Forex Markets: RBA’s Rate Cuts LoomThe Australian dollar bounced off its lows today in the forex markets, although the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted at negative rates. In a similar manner, the New Zealand dollar perked up as firmer-than-expected Chinese yuan fixing boosted risk sentiment. The two currencies typically serve as liquid proxies for traders to hedge against emerging market risks. Australia and New Zealand also share China as their top trading partner. The Aussie dollar traded higher at $0.67955 after the People’s Bank of China set the daily midpoint for the yuan. Markets expected less strong fixing, but it came at 7.0211 yuan per dollar. This dispelled fears that China was going full-gear against the US, triggering a currency war. The RBA’s Plan and the Forex Markets RBA Governor Philip Lowe recently hinted at “unconventional methods” the bank could use to prop up the Australian economy. Coming up the top is the prospect of negative interest rates. With negative interest rates, the bank aims to weaken the Australian dollar against other peers. This could theoretically boost spending, charging the economy. On top of that, exports will get a boost from a weaker currency. Although Lowe admitted no guarantee, such a plan is no longer new in the case of central banks. To boost their own economies, Switzerland, Japan, and Europe have adopted ultra-low rates. Japan, for one, has a below-zero interest rate. Elsewhere in the forex markets, the yen is currently gaining traction, reaching stellar levels as hedge funds hoard the currency. Concerns over the ongoing US-China trade war still loom large, with economists thinking it could eventually lead to a recession. Against the US dollar, the yen reached 105.32, near its highest since March 2018. The yen also flexed against the euro and the British pound. Source: www.financebrokerage.com
by Financebroker
USDSGD broke Trend Line, Probably Continues Range TradingUSDSGD broke its long-term trendline during Thursday trading, but moved below this line during Friday trading in spite of the fact that oscillators are pointing towards a bit of an upward turnaround. RSI signals a neutral reading while the stochastic oscillator suggests USDSGD could make a leg up higher. Clearly, a floor appears to be around 1.3446 and 1.3453 with two reversals from this level. A linear regression from September 2018 suggests this will happen on average by May, but the upper 95 percent confidence interval tells us it could be much later if this is a floor. Either way, sideways trading within a range of 1.3616 and 1.3446 is the most likely scenario in the short-term.
by WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot3
EURCAD. Turning over now. Sell Trading Criteria: Regardless which way you want to trade, look for minimum five 4hr. candles in consolidation zones (yellow border boxes), or five daily candles for solid yellow boxes. If you're a pattern trader or pinbar trader, this might be useful here. Wait for the breakout of the 4hr. consolidation or daily consolidation from red border boxes to take the trade. Red border boxes are the High/Low of a consolidation period inside the consolidation zone. I usually aim for 80% of the weekly ATR (or monthly ATR for yellow solid boxes) taking profit but not always at the next yellow box. I place my stop loss above/below red border box. *These zones, with the inclusion of price action described above, have remarkable accuracy. Yellow border box: weekly consolidation zone Yellow solid box: monthly consolidation zone Red border box: High/Low breakout box (5 minimum candles) Grey solid box: monthly grid block
Short
by ComteSt.Germain
NZD Battered by Strong USD, Trade ConcernsNZDUSD has extended its losses for the sixth day in a row, touching key levels in the 0.65’s. A strong US dollar and US/China trade concerns have both spilled over into NZD. There are many bearish signs, and if we break through the 0.65’s, there is a vacuum zone to the 0.62’s, which we haven’t seen since 2015. At the time of this writing, NZDUSD was trading at 0.6549. Levels from above will provide resistance, including: 0.6727 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods 0.6851 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods 0.7061 from highs and lows Levels from below will provide support, including: 0.6547 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility has narrowed a bit but may continue more before a breakout. The RSI indicator suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold yet. The MACD is above the signal line, but not by too much, suggesting that we are in a bull trend which may continue. NZDUSD is below the 50 period SMA, indicating a bear trend. The ADX indicator suggests a bear trend, at 30. We have some room until we reach lower bound of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.6535. We are likely to find resistance at the central moving average of the KRI at 0.6659. Daily Scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 3 Ranging Score: 0 NZDUSD intraday seems to be ranging, clinging on for dear life at the immediate moment after taking a beating the past couple days. Levels from above include: 0.6562 from gaps 0.6592 from sma 50 0.6650 from gaps 0.6702 from gaps 0.6721 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods Levels from below include: 0.6542 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods Technical analysis for NZDUSD intraday is as follows. Volatility has consolidated slightly. The RSI indicator suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold yet. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. NZDUSD intraday is under the 50 period SMA, which is currently at 0.6592, indicating bearishness. Additionally, NZDUSD intraday is below the 100 period SMA, which indicates a bear trend, but not oversold yet. Finally, the 50 period SMA is about on par with the 100 period SMA which suggests we are ranging. The ADX indicator, at a value of 37 observes a modest bear trend. We are below the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 0.6571, and fairly close to it. If we lose momentum, we'll have support from the lower bound of the KRI at 0.6524. Intraday Scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 4 Ranging Score: 1
Short
by quantguy
The USD Rallies Against CAD on Good US Data and NAFTAUSDCAD has been extremely bullish lately, on extremely strong manufacturing data today. It has retraced all of its losses which were caused by CAD strength due to hopes for successful NAFTA negotiations. Currently, Trump has made numerous hints that Canada may not even be a part of NAFTA anymore, and the Canadian Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau has fired back saying that he’d rather not be a part of NAFTA than have a deal that didn’t benefit Canada. The current price of USDCAD is 1.3178, which is dangerously close to the upper bound of the Kovach Reversals indicator at 1.3186. We should definitely see some resistance at this level. Technical analysis for USDCAD is as follows. Volatility is lower than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI indicates that we are in a bull trend, but not overbought yet. The MACD is above the signal line, but not to an extreme. This suggests we may have more room to appreciate. USDCAD is under the 50 period SMA, which is currently at 1.31, indicating bearishness. The ADX does not indicate a trend, i.e. we are ranging. Bull Score: 2 Bear Score: 1 Ranging Score: 2 The technical analysis for USDCAD intraday is very strong. We see many indications of a strong bull trend. It would be wise to buy on a dip. The technicals for USDCAD intraday are as follows. Volatility is slightly higher than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI indicates that we are in a bull trend, but not overbought yet. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. USDCAD intraday is above the 50 period SMA by quite a bit, suggesting that we are overbought. Also, USDCAD intraday is above the 100 period SMA by quite a bit, suggesting that we are overbought. Finally, the 50 period SMA is even with the 100 period SMA, indicating longer term ranging. The ADX indicator is at 64, which suggests a strong bull trend for USDCAD intraday. Intraday, the Kovach OBV and the Kovach Chande are quite strong, necessitating that one wait for a pullback before entering a trade in this product.
Long
by quantguy
Euro Faces Difficulties Against Brexit Woes and Trade WarThe Euro has faced some obstacles recently. The uncertainty of the state of Brexit has placed the currency in a state of volatility. Adding to its woes are concerns over the ongoing trade war. EURUSD appears to be attempting a bullish turnaround, but we don't have much confirmation. Use caution when trading this product. The current price of EURUSD is 1.1580. Levels from above include: 1.1733 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods 1.1838 from highs and lows We will find support from levels from below including the following: 1.1303 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods Some intraday levels to take into consideration include: 1.1533 1.1571 1.1597 1.1629 1.1668 1.1716 As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility is slightly lower than usual, but may narrow further before a breakout. The RSI is 52, indicating that we are in a bull trend, but not yet overbought. The MACD is above the signal line, but not to an extreme. This suggests we may have more room to appreciate. EURUSD is above the 50 period SMA, indicating some bullishness. The ADX indicator, 8 confirms that EURUSD is ranging, that is, no significant trend is observed. We are above the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 1.15, and fairly close to it. If we can gain some momentum, the upper bound of the KRI indicator at 1.18 will provide resistance. Daily scores: Bull Score: 3 Bear Score: 0 Ranging Score: 2 Lets look at some technical analysis for EURUSD intraday. Volatility is slightly higher than usual, but not to an extreme. The RSI is 48, which suggests that we are in a bear trend, but not oversold. The MACD is above the signal line, but not by too much, suggesting that we are in a bull trend which may continue. The 50 period SMA indicates that we are in a bear trend. Additionally, EURUSD intraday is under the 100 period SMA, which is currently at 1.16, indicating bearishness. Finally, the SMA(50) is roughly equal to the SMA(100), suggesting ranging. The ADX indicator, 22 confirms that EURUSD intraday is ranging, that is, no significant trend is observed. Currently, EURUSD intraday is near the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator, which sits at about 1.16. It still has some room between current prices and the lower bound of this indicator at 1.15, which will provide support. Intraday scores: Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 3 Ranging Score: 3
Short
by quantguy
GBP Rides Brexit and BoE CommentsGBPUSD The British pound is riding the news today including Brexit negotiations, and Carney’s status at the BoE. Broadly, it is feeling the weight of the surging US dollar, as our most USD currency pairs today. On day charts, generally, GBPUSD is giving us some mixed bull/bear signals. This should be a warning when trading this product in either the long or short direction. At the time of this writing, GBPUSD is $1.2999. We will find resistance from levels from above including: 1.3043 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods 1.3214 from highs and lows over the past 30 periods 1.3472 from highs and lows Levels from below include: 1.2935 from gaps 1.2665 from highs and lows over the past 14 periods As for Technical Analysis we have the following. Volatility is lower than usual, but not to an extreme. An RSI value of 45 suggests that we are in bear mode but not oversold yet. The MACD is way above the signal line, which may indicate that we will see a trend reversal or at least a pull back in the near future. GBPUSD is below the 50 period SMA, indicating a bear trend. The ADX suggests that GBPUSD is ranging. We are above the central moving average of the Kovach Reversals Indicator at 1.29, and fairly close to it. If we can gain some momentum, the upper bound of the KRI indicator at 1.31 will provide resistance. Daily scores: Bull Score: 2 Bear Score: 2 Ranging Score: 2 Technical Analysis for GBPUSD intraday suggests ranging. Be careful entering a trade in either direction. You might want to consider a mean reversion trade. We will find resistance from levels from above including the following: 1.3012 from highs and lows over the past 100 periods Levels from below include: 1.2813 from gaps 1.2860 from gaps 1.2926 from gaps Lets look at some technical analysis for GBPUSD intraday. Volatility has narrowed a bit, but may continue more before a breakout. The RSI is 46, indicating that we are in a bear trend, but not yet oversold. The MACD suggests that we are in a bullish phase but not overbought yet. The 50 period SMA indicates that we are in a bear trend. Additionally, GBPUSD intraday is below the 100 period SMA, which indicates a bear trend, but not oversold yet. Finally, the SMA(50) is roughly equal to the SMA(100), suggesting ranging. The ADX indicator, 15 confirms that GBPUSD intraday is ranging, that is, no significant trend is observed. Bull Score: 1 Bear Score: 3 Ranging Score: 3
Long
by quantguy
Momentum Indicators Point out a Great Trade in CADThe Kovach Momentum Indicators and Reversals indicator together gave the heads up on a great trade in the Canadian dollar on the back of the trade war on Friday. Those who were paying attention toward the end of the American session (its always thin trading on Fridays), could have made an easy 80 pips. Observe how the Kovach OBV (blue line) maintains an upward trajectory, but the purple line, the Kovach Chande takes a dip. This is telling us that long term momentum is strong (likely due to insiders) in USDCAD (ie CAD is bearish), but that short term momentum has let up a bit, and thus this is the dip to buy. You never want to chase a trending asset, let you get caught in a pullback, and this set of indicators is perfect for pointing this out. Observe also, the green triangles which identify when you can add to a position.
Long
by quantguy
GBP/AUD Long? Only after CPIThe fact the Pound hasn't managed to catch a Bid since Mark Carney raised interest rates is relatively unusual. Today's Average Wage number played a part in the Pound have a decent day and tomorrow's number will play another part in whether we have a trade to take. The daily bar ended up closing as a Spinning Top, indicative with an indecisive market. I'd quite like to see how tomorrow pan's out and then see if the Pound is still able to hold on to gains before buying.
Long
by DollarsNSense
The Pound is cheap, but how do we justify buying?The Pound has been the much maligned currency of the last 2 years. The UK economy bombed from the fasted growing in the G-7 to the weakest and Brexit negotiations continue to favour the either European Union or a No Deal scenario. All this being said the UK economy isn't quite as weak as the currency suggests. For this reason I am always on the look out for a good place to enter a long with the view of holding through the last stage of the Brexit negotiations. The benefit of this is, if the right price can be found and a good deal surprisingly emerges, the pound will rocket. Looking at the Weekly chart, we see mixed signals. There is a potential distribution pattern, giving the Pound the look of a currency that will weaken further. However last weeks Hammer gives us a strong indication that Buyers sit in wait in this area. There is also a long term area of support here so waiting for the shorter timeframes to generate a good reason to buy, may be the catalyst the GBP/AUD needs for a long.
Long
by DollarsNSense
USD/JPY Elliott Wave IdeaLooking at USD/JPY it may be entering the final leg of a correction toward the 0.618 retracement level and a good low risk shorting opportunity with a stop loss above the recent high at 113.249. If correction reaches the 0.618 levels then we may see a bullish 3rd wave. A look at some of the waves: Subwave 4 of 3 completing at the 0.382 level and an ABCDE triangle > Subwave 2 of 5 and subwave 4 of 5 completing at the 0.5 and 0.382 levels respectively > Subwave 5 of 5 hitting the 0.618 extension level perfectly to complete the impulsive move > What appears to be a nicely formed WXYXZ correction > Some more details below: The ABC patterns for W and X > Y wave ABC with ending diagonal for C wave > X wave ABC > B of Z hitting the 0.5 retracement level of A of Z with the 1.618 extension for C of Z lined up perfectly with the 0.618 overall retracement level >
Short
by Joseph_King