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Gold weekly bias: BearishHello there, let's discuss what could probably happen in the gold market in the coming week. As you might see, the gold order flow has been bearish for the past few weeks now, as indicated in the weekly timeframe by a trendline drawn in the chart, showing us that gold might continue to go down to the 1885.325 support level area. You may ask why selling gold. See the answer below: Important Note : An inside bar that formed at the key level area (trendline resistance area) in the weekly chart is a clear selling confirmation of this downward move. There may be a little pullback though, which could make the coming week's weekly candlestick have a wick/tail before completely going down to the 1885.325 support level area. If gold succeeds in breaking this level to the downside, it could head down to 1804.873. But, watch out to sell gold in the coming week in the lower timeframes like h4 downward. Conclusion: Gold flow is bearish, and it will sell in the coming week.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OraclePips
Aussie Dollar: Headwinds AheadAUD is a commodity currency. Australia’s resources rich economy is heavily influenced by commodity trade, particularly with China. When China sneezes, the AUD catches cold. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s rate hiking cycle approaching an end plus China’s economic recovery remaining anaemic, the AUD is likely to weaken further in the short term. This paper posits a short position in CME Micro AUD/USD futures to gain from a weakening Australian Dollar with an entry at 0.6584 combined with a target exit at 0.6300 hedged by a stop loss of 0.6747 delivering a reward to risk ratio of 1.75x. RBA HAS PAUSED ITS INFLATION FIGHT Fending off a stubborn inflationary environment, the RBA was quick to follow the Fed’s path in raising its lending rates to cool the economy. While not as aggressive as the Fed, the RBA held its rates at elevated levels. Inflation in Australia has eased from its peak but hovers above those in the US. The RBA expects inflation to abate gradually to target levels of 2% by mid-2025. With inflation trending lower and GDP softening, the RBA rate hiking cycle is likely at its apex. The RBA did not hike rates at its last two meetings. Much like other central banks, the RBA will be guided by macroeconomic data in shaping the path ahead for interest rates. Thus far, economic data supports the case for no further rate hikes. Consumer spending and GDP growth has slowed over the last two quarters. Barring an unexpected reversal, the rates are at their peak. Sharp retail slowdown in June also vindicates RBA’s case for pause. Still, the odds of further rate hikes are non-zero. The RBA has maintained a hawkish tone stating that further tightening may be warranted. Previously, even though RBA had opted for a pause in April, scorching inflation numbers forced the central bank to hike rates in May & June. RBA’s next policy meeting is on September 5th and until then, the current bearish sentiment is likely to prevail. If RBA opts to continue with the rate pause, AUD is likely to weaken further. US DEBT DOWNGRADES AND THE DOLLAR SMILE Fitch, a leading ratings agency, recently downgraded US treasury debt. The downgrade has led to limited impact on treasury yields or the USD. Instead, the downgrade led to reduced appetite for risk assets and increased flow into the safety of the US Dollar. This is the classic dollar smile phenomenon at play. The dollar smile helps explain the tendency of USD to shine when the US economy is not only strongly outperforming, but also when it faces turbulence. This bodes negatively for the AUD which is a volatile currency as it takes cues from global commodities. Reduction in risk appetite leads to further weakening in the AUD. UNDERWHELMING CHINESE ECONOMIC RECOVERY China is Australia’s largest trading partner. Australia is a resource rich nation. Substantial portion of its resources are exported to China. Iron Ore, Copper, and Natural Gas top the list. Consequently, a slowdown in China adversely impacts the Australian Dollar. China’s post-COVID recovery has been underwhelming. Growth is weaker than expected and domestic consumption remains fragile. Though there are signals that these may rebound, the process will be slow which suggests there will be limited demand from China for Australian commodities in the near term. Inadequate Stimulus China has not been able to rely on external demand for its goods to support its recovery. This has put further pressure on stimulating domestic demand. Last week, Chinese officials announced stimulus measures which have fallen short of expectations. Officials have indicated further stimulus, but details remain scant and timeline vague. Given that, Chinese economic recovery is likely to be drawn out. Feeble Manufacturing Activity Manufacturing forms the backbone of the Chinese economy. Activity in the sector had been shrinking since February. However, the latest PMI data points to a slow reversal in this trend. Inventory levels improved suggesting that de-stocking is ending. However, PMI at 49.3 still points to shrinking manufacturing activity which may take several months to recover as global demand remains pale. OPTIONS MARKET SIGNALS SIGNIFICANT NEAR-TERM BEARISHNESS Aggregate Put/Call ratio of CME Options on AUD futures stands at 1.74 indicating a clear bearish sentiment heavily weighted towards the front of the curve. Analysing ratio across expiries, sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish in the near term with signs of bullishness in Q4. Meanwhile, CFTC’s Commitment of Trader’s report shows that asset managers are positioned net short on the AUD and increased net short positioning by ~9000 contracts (~21%) last week. Conversely, leveraged funds have switched their net short positioning to net long last week. Overall, COT points to a bearish sentiment. TRADE SETUP With Australian interest rates at their peak and Chinese economic recovery expected to be drawn out, investors can gain from the near-term weakening in the AUD using a short position in CME’s Micro AUD/USD futures expiring in September. CME Micro AUD/USD Futures have a margin requirement of just USD 170 (as of August 7th) and provides exposure to 10,000 AUD. Every pip delivers a P&L of USD 1. • Entry: 0.6584 • Target: 0.6300 • Stop Loss: 0.6747 • Profit at Target: USD 284 (284 pips * USD 1 = USD 284) • Loss at Stop: USD 163 (163 pips * USD 1 = USD 163) • Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.75x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. 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CME_MINI:M6A1!Short
by mintdotfinance
1
XAUUSD BIAS: ShortCurrently, the gold is at the supply zone lingering and showing rejections of the zone, which is an indication of the bulls becoming uninterested in the price of the asset. If finally, the bulls show no more interest in the current gold price, then expect it to drop down to the demand area where we could see the bulls coming in to push the price higher. Bias: we remain bearish as long as the price is below the supply zone. But the moment the bulls are successful in breaking above the supply zone, then we turn bullish on the market.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OraclePips
USDCAD BIAS: LongHello traders, I hope you took trade on XAUUSD with me, and you have taken your profit because our take profit has been hit. Don't be greedy. This is a usdcad technical analysis. Currently, the price is bullish and it we have seen the change of character already taken place the second structure high has been broken, and it's now retested. From this point of retest, the price is preparing to move up to the current extreme high. Order: Market TP & SL: look at the chart.
Long
by OraclePips
Japanese Yen Is Trading At The SupportJapanese Yen has been one of the weakest currency in the last couple of months. But, looking at the JPY Futures chart, we can see it finishing a larger A-B-C corrective decline, while it's trading at the support, which can cause reversal and recovery for the Japanese Yen. Even COT data of the japanese Yen shows extreme levels for Large speculators (green). It means that we may see some slow down of a current bear move, or even rally in the months ahead.
CME:6J1!Long
by ew-forecast
GBPUSD Bias: ShortHi there, looking at the GU market today, you could notice that the price has shown a deceleration in the bullish move, which shows that the market is preparing to head back down to the support level. A bearish pin bar has formed which indicates a lack of interest in the current market price from the bulls. Also, the price is between 61.8 and 50 percent of Fibonacci levels, rejecting these two levels by forming a pin bar that formed inside the bullish outside bar. As you know, If you see an inside bar at the key level area, then you should prepare for a reversal. Order type: Market Stop Loss: 1.27503 Take Profit:1.26089 If you win your trade, then you should buy me a coffee.
Short
by OraclePips
XAUUSD Bias: Short; Timeframe: DailyHello there, we may see a sell continuation today in the gold market as the price is currently lingering between 61.8 and 50 percent of Fibonacci levels in the downtrend market. Also, a nice bearish engulfing candle that completely swallowed the previous bar has been printed on the chart, showing us that the bears are in control. Market condition: Bearish Order Type: Market Stop loss: Place it above the bearish engulfing candle=1940.745 or 1935:313, depending on your lot size. Profit Target: First: 1907.931 Second: 1894.313 Third: 1829.365--Don't be greedy. Happy trading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OraclePips
EUR/USD Prediction 3.7.2023The European consolidation at this level signifies a significant step forward in the integration and collaboration among European nations. This consolidation has been a long-awaited and carefully orchestrated process, aimed at strengthening the economic and political ties within the European Union (EU) and fostering a more united and resilient Europe. At its core, this consolidation entails the harmonization and coordination of policies and regulations across various domains, including finance, trade, and governance. It seeks to establish a common framework that facilitates seamless interaction and cooperation among member states, paving the way for increased economic stability, growth, and prosperity. One of the key aspects of this consolidation is the creation of a unified currency, the Euro, which has played a crucial role in fostering economic integration and facilitating cross-border transactions. The Euro has not only simplified trade within the EU but has also boosted economic competitiveness and stability among member states. This consolidation at the monetary level has enhanced financial cooperation, reduced exchange rate uncertainties, and fostered a sense of shared responsibility for the economic well-being of the entire region. Furthermore, the consolidation at this level involves the establishment of robust institutions and mechanisms to oversee and govern the EU as a whole. The European Central Bank (ECB) has emerged as a pivotal institution responsible for monetary policy and ensuring price stability across the Eurozone. Additionally, the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, plays a vital role in shaping and implementing policies that align with the collective interests of member states. Beyond economics, this consolidation also represents a commitment to shared values, democratic principles, and the promotion of peace and security throughout Europe. The EU has been instrumental in fostering cooperation on a range of issues, including environmental protection, human rights, and social cohesion. By consolidating at this level, European nations are better equipped to tackle global challenges collectively and exert greater influence on the international stage. However, it is important to acknowledge that European consolidation is an ongoing process, and challenges do exist. Disparities in economic development, cultural differences, and diverse national interests can sometimes impede progress and consensus. Nevertheless, the commitment to dialogue, compromise, and solidarity remains at the heart of the European project, allowing for the continuous pursuit of a more integrated and united Europe. In conclusion, the European consolidation at this level signifies a significant milestone in the journey towards a more closely integrated and prosperous Europe. It has laid the foundation for economic stability, strengthened political cooperation, and nurtured a sense of shared identity among European nations. By consolidating at this level, the EU has positioned itself as a key player on the global stage, advocating for peace, prosperity, and the common interests of its member states.
Long
by mazayafx
USD/CAD Prediction on 29.062023Today, the economic calendar seems to favor a bullish outlook for the US dollar. Several key indicators and economic events scheduled for release today could potentially have a positive impact on the dollar's value. Firstly, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is due, a highly anticipated event. If the Fed raises interest rates, it is typically a bullish signal for the dollar, as higher interest rates attract foreign investors seeking a better return on their investments, increasing the demand for the currency. Secondly, the US GDP data for the second quarter is set to be published. This data provides a broad view of the health of the US economy. If the GDP growth rate exceeds expectations, this could signal that the US economy is recovering faster than anticipated, which would boost confidence in the dollar. Next, the jobless claims data is set for release. This data reflects the number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week. Lower jobless claims indicate a healthier labor market and generally strengthen the dollar. Finally, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will be announced. This index gauges the level of consumer confidence in the economic activity. A higher reading typically suggests that consumers are optimistic about the economy, which can increase spending and thus stimulate economic growth. In conclusion, the data releases scheduled for today could potentially strengthen the dollar if they come in above expectations. Investors are advised to monitor these events closely, as their actual results could significantly impact the dollar's trajectory. However, it's worth noting that the market's reaction to these events could be influenced by a variety of other factors, such as global economic trends, geopolitical events, and changes in risk sentiment among investors.
Long
by mazayafx
EURUSD Bias: ShortHello there, the EU has broken the recent previous higher low, the previous support, creating a CHOCH. The interesting part of this price movement is that the previous support level has been retested printing a bearish pin bar on the chart, followed by an inside bar. What next? At the opening of the market tomorrow, we should expect a small gap-up before the complete move down to 1.08484 and 1.08057 level. You can use these levels, 1.08484 and 1.08057 to take profit.
Short
by OraclePips