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The Power of Wyckoff - Textbook schematicYou may have seen our last couple of calls & streams. In the idea Video's we have overlaid the chart with the Wyckoff & Elliott schematics behind. We had several key reasons for why this was distribution and not accumulation. I wanted to share a little glimpse of some of the proprietary tools we have developed for both TradingView and our Discord community. This one being very relevant, if you take the Buyers Climax (BC), the UT (Up Thrust) and the UTAD (Up Thrust After Distribution). You will see our Wyckoff indicator helps spot the opportunity to short (in this example). Followed by the indicator being added The Bitcoin play recently has been a textbook example of the Power of Wyckoff. With Wyckoff schematic range showing As always to learn more and get a deeper insight, come join our community. Link below. Have a good evening! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
21
Wyckoff distribution before your eyesLeaving the Wyckoff distribution structure. As per the previous posts & streams. People where saying "guys a boomer", "FUD" and all the other good stuff. I've been Bullish since 2011 and my overall sentiment is long. But I have traded 21 years now and know a healthy sign of the Bull moves are areas to buy the dips. If you look at the logic in this post, it's written out as a text book example. I would actually choose this to teach in the class room. We have covered a lot of this logic & also have a slight insight into the world of Venture Capital - seeing various angles is never a bad way of seeing things. This is part of a healthy correction, well needed and will actually do the whole sector some good overall. We have already issued some long calls for the larger time-frames. Stream later via @Paul_Varcoe Discord channel in the signature of the post, come join the conversation. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
23
The Base & Quote Currency - What Are They?In forex the base currency is the first currency mentioned in the symbol (the first 3 letters). The quote currency is the second currency mentioned in the symbol (last 3 letters). The base currency is being given a 'quote' in the quote currency quite simply, saying that if you hold one base currency you will receive x amount of quote currency. If you take a buy trade (long) then you are effectively purchasing the base currency, expecting it to rise in value against the quote currency. Likewise if you take a sell trade (short) you are effectively selling the base currency into the quote currency, anticipating that the base currency will fall in value against the quote currency. With CFD's you don't need to own either of the currencies to trade them, as the contract makes you liable for the value of change of the forex rate based upon the contract size (lot size). The broker will calculate this value, convert the amount to your forex trading account's base currency, and issue you with the profit or loss. For example, lets say your account is in GBP and you buy one contract (1.00 lots) of EURUSD. The EUR appreciates against the USD by 10 pips, and your profit is 100 USD. The broker then converts this to GBP using the USD/GBP rate (currently 0.7040), making your profit 70.4 GBP! The broker issues this profit into your trading account.
Education
by ToniSignals
Elliott overlay to accompany the WyckoffWe have been posting more and more in our community around the logic of this move - After the Rocket call on the 18th of March, it's clear to see how respectful the price action has been. Inside a weekly (3-4) move in terms of Elliott Wave, we have seen a near-perfect example of a Wyckoff distribution play out. This was shared two weeks ago now, showing the logic and the pattern as it played out. I wanted to post it on TradingView to accompany the Wyckoff videos from earlier this week. When you see it as an overlay - it's now clear professional money is starting to take control. The assumption of many retail traders is that institutional money flow in = price up, and that is the reason over 75% of retail lose money. Have a great weekend all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Mayfair_Ventures
6
🎓 EDU 4 of 20: A PROFESSIONAL TRADING APPROACH (FIST)Hi traders, wish you a happy and prosperous New Year. In the last EDU post, we touched on the main factors that move currencies in the short, medium, and long run. Professional traders follow these influences to determine what currencies to buy and sell. However, each trader has its own time horizon, so following long-term market determinants if you want to hold your trade for a few hours doesn’t make much sense. In fact, it’s counterproductive. Currencies can move in the opposite direction of their Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate, or Terms of Trade (ToT) for months and even years. While these models work well to provide us with a possible market direction in the long-term, their short-term track-record is rather poor. At CommaFX, we hold our trades mostly intraday or for a few days, and close them ahead of the Weekend (if a trade is still open on Friday.) This way, we can make more short-term trades and avoid the market risk of holding trades over the weekend. News that are releases over the weekend can have a significant impact on open trades after the markets open on Monday! I am following the FIST approach, which is a global macro approach that allows us to take only high-probability trades. FIST stands for Fundamentals, Intermarket, Sentiment, and Technicals. On the Fundamental side, I am following: 1. The current business cycle of a country through leading economic indicators such as housing starts, durable goods orders, and PMIs. Countries that are in the expansionary phase of the business cycle see their currencies strengthen, while countries that are in the recessionary phase usually see their currencies weaken over time. 2. Important news and themes: Such as Brexit, US stimulus, OPEC meetings, Central Bank commentaries... 3. Economic Indicators used by central banks to adjust their monetary policy: inflation rates, labor market indicators, economic growth. On the Intermarket side, I am following the performance of other markets and asset classes that can have an impact on the FX market, such as: 1. Commodities: For commodity currencies like CAD (oil), INR (oil), AUD (copper, gold), NZD (dairy). 2. Stocks: The performance of the stock market can provide clues for future exchange rates (e.g. higher Nikkei 225 usually leads to JPY weakness). 3. Bonds and yields: Global capital chases the highest yield. When bond prices fall and yields rise in a country, the country’s currency will often strengthen. If I see a strong divergence in the Intermarket (for example oil rises but the Canadian dollar falls, such as the case in the previous week), it gets our attention. I become bearish on the CAD from an Intermarket perspective. On the Sentiment side, I am following risk appetite indicators and market sentiment as shown by the options and futures markets. What I pay attention to is: 1. The performance of risky assets vs safe-havens: stocks (risky), risk-currencies (AUD, NZD), oil (market optimism), metals (silver, copper) vs safe-havens such as gold, bonds, JPY and CHF. When risk sentiment is positive (risky assets are bought and safe-havens sold), I become bullish on stocks, AUD and NZD, and bearish on the JPY, CHF, and USD, for example. 2. Market positioning: I follow the positioning of fast money (hedge funds) and smart money as shown by the Commitment of Traders report. When the big guys become bullish on a currency and increase their bullish bias week over week, I become bullish as well. 3. Options put/call ratio: The put/call ratio shows how many put and call contracts are active for a currency. As the ratio rises (i.e. more puts than calls), this is usually a bearish sign for a currency, and vice-versa. Finally, once I see a promising trading opportunity in the market after performing my Fundamental, Intermarket, and Sentiment analysis (matching strong vs weak currencies), it’s time to identify possible entry and exit points with the use of Technicals. Bear in mind that I know what direction I want to trade (i.e. short USD/CAD) before even opening a price-chart! The chart is only used to find suitable levels for a selling position. On the technical side, I focus on important retracement levels, volume profile, and price-action. I don’t trade breakouts, but wait for the market to come to my level (using LIMIT orders) to enter into a trade with an attractive reward-to-risk ratio. This was a short introduction to how professional traders find trading candidates in the market. Unlike the usual retail trader who focuses only on charts, we know what we want to trade before even opening the chart! A chart is the last thing I pay attention to, and my technical analysis takes me around 5 minutes to find where I want to enter into a trade. 90% of the time, I am only focused on fundamentals, intermarket, and sentiment. If you found this post useful, please hit the “LIKE” button and follow. Also, I’ll try to respond to all questions you might have, just post them in the comment section below. Stay tuned for the next part of our Educational Series! In total, there will be 20 posts that will CHANGE the way you trade and look at the markets – PROMISED!
Education
by MujkanovicFX
1
What are you going to DO (-key word) differently in 2021?We are almost done for 2020 - we are 2 days from the 2021. So here is the question: What are YOU going to do differently in 2021? Are you maybe going to improve your ENTRIES? Maybe your TRADE MANAGEMENT? Maybe your Exits? Maybe you are finally start to listen to your mentors? Maybe you will REALIZE that if your way is not working - why wouldn´t you try somebody´s else´s? What do you think. Happy new Year to all TRADINGVIEW Members. See you back in 2021. FXP
by RealFXBoss
2
🎓 EDU 3 of 20: Here is What Moves the Forex Market 📈EDU 3 of 20: What Moves the Forex Market? Hello traders! First of all, I wish you a merry Christmas and a happy holiday season. Now that markets are closed and liquidity is thin, we have got some time to learn more about what it takes to become a successful Forex trader. In the last educational post (2 of 20), we have covered why you shouldn’t rely only on technical analysis in your trading. That’s the most common mistake that new traders make! They follow only charts, and trade when they see a trendline breakout, triangle breakout, MA crossover, or any other signal that won’t return consistent profits over the long run. Professional traders in banks and other large market participants don’t trade with technical analysis! We do use technical levels to find appropriate entry and exit levels, but we will never enter into a trade because of a simple trendline breakout! That’s why institutional traders make millions in the markets, and the average retail trader loses 90% of its capital within 90 days of trading. My mission is to teach you how to trade like a professional trader. So, what are my credentials to claim this? I am a full-time profitable trader and follow the markets since 2008, I worked in the trading department and have first-hand experience, and my passion for the markets helped me to gain academic degrees in financial markets (MSc in fundamental analysis of currency markets.) So, what moves the Forex market? What causes the EUR/USD pair, for example, to move from 1.15 to 1.20? Here are the main determinants in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term. Short-term determinants: 1. Trend-following behavior and herding effect : Market participants tend to buy into uptrends and sell into downtrends, which accelerates the original moves and causes the trend to continue. 2. Investor sentiment : When investors are bullish on a currency, they tend to buy. When they are bearish, they tend to sell. There are ways to measure investor sentiment in the market, and we’ll cover this later in our educational series (hint: We use the futures and options markets to measure investor sentiment) 3. Risk appetite : When investors are willing to take on risk (risk-on), they tend to buy riskier high-yielding assets, such as stocks and high-beta currencies like the AUD and NZD. When they are risk-averse, they tend to park their capital in safe-havens (“Flight to Quality”) such as bonds, gold, the JPY and the CHF. If you can measure the current risk appetite, this can help you identify great day trading opportunities. 4. Market positioning : Certain groups of market participants take longer to change their positions, while others are quicker in rebalancing their portfolios. When large players show a tendency to buy a certain currency, we can expect higher prices for the currency in the future. Real money (like pension funds) are less price-sensitive, while smart money (like hedge funds) are more price-sensitive and quicker in identifying new market trends. Medium-term determinants : 1. Real interest rate differentials : Currencies follow interest rates, and Forex traders are basically interest rate traders. The real interest rate differential between two countries tends to be a leading indicator of future exchange rate movements. The real interest rate represents the nominal interest rate minus the current inflation rate. We follow the real interest rate differential of 10-year government bonds of respective countries (like between the UK and the US for the GBP/USD pair) to get a hint of where the currency pair is heading to. 2. Monetary and fiscal policy : Changes in monetary and fiscal policy can create strong and long-lasting trends in the Forex market. Usually, a tighter monetary policy will put buying pressure in a currency, while looser monetary policy will exert selling pressure in the currency. Tighter fiscal policy is usually bearish for a currency, while looser fiscal policy (i.e. more public investments) is usually bullish for a currency (at least until more fiscal spending starts to negatively impact a country’s budget deficit, which is then bearish for a currency!) 3. Trends in the current account : Countries that run a current account surplus (i.e. they export more than they import) often see their currency appreciate (rise in value) because of capital inflows and higher foreign demand for their currency. A typical example for this is Japan in the 80s and 90s (When the US imported Toyotas, they had to buy Japanese yens to pay for them). Countries that have a current account deficit (i.e. they import more than they export) see capital outflows, which then lead to currency depreciation (fall in value). Long-term determinants : 1. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) : The PPP is a macro-economic principle that says that different currencies need to have the same purchasing power over time. Let’s say a Porsche costs 100,000 pounds in the UK, and 120,000 USDs in the US. If the current GBP/USD rate is 1.40, a buyer from the UK could exchange 100,000 pounds to 140,000 USDs and buy the Porsche in the US for 120,000 USDs. Over time, this demand for US dollars will cause the GBP/USD exchange rate to fall towards 1.20, which is the Real Exchange Rate according to the PPP. Of course, the buyer has to take into account import taxes and shipping costs to the UK, as well as the time required to complete the purchase and import the car. We also have to make the assumption that Porsches are the same and have the same built quality in the UK and the US. It can take years until a currency pair finally moves towards its PPP equilibrium level. Fun fact : The Economist magazine has created the Bic Mac Index, which compares the prices of a McDonald’s Big Mac in different countries to calculate the PPP exchange rate for different currencies. 2. Terms of Trade : Terms of Trade for a country measures the trends in prices for imports and exports. For example, when oil rises, oil exporting countries will experience a positive trend in their Terms of Trade and likely see their currencies rise in value (take Canada for example.) On the other side, countries that rely on cheap oil will likely see their currencies fall in value when the price of oil rises (India for example.) In the upcoming educational posts, we'll combine the most important currency determinants into an effective framework used by professional traders: The FIST analysis. The stuff I deliver here for free is world-class trading education! There isn't anything like this on the world wide web, and you'll learn a full and profitable trading framework (analysis + execution + risk management) used by professional traders! We are still developing your "Analyst brain", and will then move on to your "Trader brain" (execution) and "Manager brain" (risk and money management) in this fully free 20-part Educational Series! Upcoming post: Introduction to FIST Trading Don't forget to FOLLOW and LIKE to receive new posts! Also, if you have any questions, let me know in the comment section below. Happy holidays again!
Education
by MujkanovicFX
2
Trade of the Day: AUD/USD (FIST Analysis)Hello traders After a strong start this morning, the Australian dollar faced significant selling pressure in the US session as risk-off flows hit the market. The S&P 500 is falling, and US dollar is picking up - most likely because of flight to safety ahead of the meeting between PM Johnson and EC President Von der Leyen (scheduled at 19:00 GMT this evening). As a sidenote, Australian consumer confidence picked up this morning, lifting the AUD in the overnight session, and tomorrow early morning Australian time we get new inflation expectations numbers from Australia. INTERMARKET This chart shows the AUD/USD 1-hour chart and the price of copper futures, 2-year yield differentials between AU and US, and the Invesco DB Base Metals fund (tracking commodities like copper, aluminium, and zinc). There is some strong bullish bias in the commodities, and the yield differentials are also picking up, which could support the Australian dollar in the short-term. SENTIMENT Hedge funds remain long in the AUD and increased their short bets on the USD. TECHNICALS The pair reached - and was breaking below - the 61.8% Fib level of the recent up-move where buying pressure could push the price up again. This was my initial trade entry. The current selling is rather on low volume. If the price keeps falling, institutional traders will likely join the market with longs.
Long
by MujkanovicFX
USDCAD: Break Hook and Go after NFP!Couldn't resist not analyzing this setup! Here it is for educational purposes. Never chase a breakout - Wait for pullbacks to get a more attractive reward-to-risk for your setup. The trade went like this: 1. CAD labor market numbers strong vs USD labor market numbers weak (13:30 London time) 2. Breakdown on strong selling volume 3. Pullback to important 1.2850 level 4. Liquidity returns on high-volume weak bullish candle (chance for institutional traders to buy CAD at discount price, i.e. short USDCAD . They drain liquidity until the price reaches the 50%-61.8% zone. Yes, it's manipulation.) 5. Now we have a classic "break hook and go" setup with a profit target at the 1.272 Fib extension (reward-to-risk 9:1 if aggressive) Great trade to close the week!
by MujkanovicFX
Brent Crude: Sell Opportunity 🛢Hello traders, as discussed in our Morning Meeting, here is the setup in Brent crude that we're following. OPEC has a two-day meeting with Russia discussing the recent oil rally, and reports emerged that some members are reluctant to cut their production, putting pressure on oil prices. Brent has already formed a fresh swing low, showing acceptance of lower prices. I am looking for a retracement to the first blue liquidity zone before considering a short based on price-action and volume .
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by MujkanovicFX
GBPCHF– Buyers might looking for higher price levels.GBPCHF– Buyers might looking for higher price levels. Trend: Strong Buy Support/Resistance: R4: 1.32568 R3: 1.31354 R2: 1.30288 R1: 1.28926 S1: 1.28275 S2: 1.27360 S3: 1.26577 Price action: Sellers are working on potencial sell because of weak eur currency on the other side. Sellers has to break S1 and then will be even more stronger then, they are now. Nzd currency is same showing good power from overall perspective, which made this currency pair more attractive to trade. Potencial trade idea: Bulls targets: T1: 1.30288 T2: 1.31354 T3: 1.32568 Bears targets: T1: 1.27360 NOTE – We are trading GBPCHF via the preferred trading setups ELITEFXACADEMY Disclamer1: We have to wait for a currency pair to trade after news are reliased. This might be a short correction, or price will give us moving dirrection after news are reliased. Disclaimer2: Martin's views on the Chart analysis is ment as a trading advice for education terms; Education terms include: trading consistency to everyone who is reading this blog; for every advance student and for every Elite student who is using this analysis for managing his equity by Elite strategy and custom indicator. This analysis is understandable and transparent for all Elite students. This is a free content which is based from Academy in term of transparency to support and following progress to everyone. We know that there is always possible way that market can pull you out even when you follow our analysis blog and advice for a trade. We don't publish where you have to have your risk management – Stop Loss, because, it would not be fair to Elite members, who learned this techniques in our Elite course.
Education
by EliteFxAcademy
EURCAD – Price might go higher from price action perspective andEURCAD – Price might go higher from price action perspective and followind weak Cad Trend: Buy/ Neutral Support/Resistance: R3: 1.46639 R2: 1.46382 R1: 1.46122 S1: 1.45886 S2: 1.45558 Price action: Buyers might be confidant because of Canadian Dollar weakness. Fear might be seen if the price reach higher targets. But still for long term decision, we need more facts. Potencial trade idea: Bulls targets: T1: 1.46122 T2: 1.46382 T3: 1.46639 Bears targets: T1: 1.45558 NOTE – We are trading EURCAD via the preferred trading setups Disclamer1: We have to wait for a currency pair to trade after news are reliased. This might be a short correction, or price will give us moving dirrection after news are reliased. Disclaimer2: Martin's views on the Chart analysis is ment as a trading advice for education terms; Education terms include: trading consistency to everyone who is reading this blog; for every advance student and for every Elite student who is using this analysis for managing his equity by Elite strategy and custom indicator. This analysis is understandable and transparent for all Elite students. This is a free content which is based from Academy in term of transparency to support and following progress to everyone. We know that there is always possible way that market can pull you out even when you follow our analysis blog and advice for a trade. We don't publish where you have to have your risk management – Stop Loss, because, it would not be fair to Elite members, who learned this techniques in our Elite course. ELITEFXACADEMY
Education
by EliteFxAcademy
EURAUD – Sellers trending is on the way and the reason could be EURAUD – Sellers trending is on the way and the reason could be Trend: Strong Sell Support/Resistance: R3: 1.61423 R2: 1.61139 R1: 1.60770 S1: 1.60108 S2: 1.59538 Price action: From previous day sellers led and give us a reason to sell even more, but the price has to hold below resitance level at 1.60770. Sellers targets are next to first and lower to second buyers support where buyers might give us information about their next move. If the price change first resistance level to support, then buyers might test second resistace level at 1.61139. Potencial trade idea: Bulls targets: T1: 1.60770 Bears targets: T1: 1.60108 T2: 1.59538 NOTE – We are trading EURAUD via the preferred trading setups ELITEFXACADEMY
Education
by EliteFxAcademy
The only way to profit from trading is discipline. Wrong Wrong !We all come to trading for freedom, financial freedom, free of work, trade whenever and wherever we want to... Now, everyone told you that you must be disciplined in order to be profitable from trading. Can you do it? Instead of discipline, you should be responsible... Yes, Responsibilities will change your trading. You are responsible for protecting your account, working on time, your health and etc... Please watch it and like and share if you think this video is useful. Thank you for watching!
Education
by FxFran
GBPCHF scenarioOrganization and planning are important strategy in everyday life. If you want to compete and be a good competitor, there is necessary to have plan A, B and C. You have to think outside of the box and 2 steps forward. Here we can see GBPCHF price playing around major psychological levels; 1.31000 and 1.33000. I shared 3 scenarios what might happen. Either the trend is not exhausted, either price will fall or either we will have to wait for decision while price is playing between these levels. Remember this is day chart and you might see some significant move yet next month. BUT when it happen next month or tomorrow or even today you will be prepared for the game named FOREX. Hope you all are doing well and earning money without my analysis. Feel free to follow me
by Michalangelo
GBPAUD, THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS CONFIRMATION!GBPAUD, THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS CONFIRMATION! D1: You can see there is a Up trendline after the Down trendline has been broken and the EMA cross to the upside. So the scenario I expect that the price will test this trendline and go up to creat THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS >>Or...<< otherwise price can break the trendline then moves back to the downside. H4: There are very nice trend formations. You can swing SHORT when the left shoulder confirm and SHORT aggresively to the big demand zone. It's about 1:2 RR. For Scalpers: So you can wait for a green candle here to scalp LONG in 15 min chart or even lower 5 minute chart for the LONG. And then Short with the lines I drew. Enjoy your high profits !! Facebook: www.facebook.com Telegram: t.me
by TWHuy1
EURCAD longHi traders, this is my view of EURCAD for the next months. I will wait for a new higher low as right shoulder to complete the inverted head and shoulder pattern to go swing long. Use riskmanagement and moneymanagement to earn consistent money with forex. If the price has a distance of 70 Pips to your entry in your favor then set the trade break even and let it run. Risk Ratio 1:5 Risk 90 Pips to earn 450 Pips Swingtrade. Have a good trading week and be patient for the right setups. Stefan Forex
Long
by StefanForex