DXY - Strong Again! Soon...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈DXY has been overall bullish, trading within the rising wedge marked in red.
Currently, DXY is undergoing a correction and approaching the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, it is retesting structure marked in orange.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange structure and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #DXY approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Forex-market
Never bet against America - But it is time for a correction!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
It is true that the legend Warren Buffett says: "Never bet against America"
But it is time for a correction in my opinion.
I find the daily chart for US500 to be interesting as it appears to be forming one of my favorite patterns. What I call TRIO RETEST
1️⃣ => Non-Horizontal Resistance
US500 has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading within the rising channel in orange and currently hovering around the upper bound / orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
2️⃣ => Overbought
From a medium-term perspective, US500 has been trading inside the rising channel in red, and it is currently hovering around its upper bound / red trendline acting as an over-bought zone.
3️⃣ => Round Number
Moreover, the $5,500 is a massive round number.
Thus, as long as the $5,500 mark holds, I expect a bearish correction towards the lower bound of the red channel.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Let's begin with our topic today!
The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure.
Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior.
1. Trends:
Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket
3. Price Behavior:
Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations.
4. Market Phases:
Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Q3 Sell Off Bias Breakdown Part 1Hello, in this analysis, I saw the potential for this sell-off around August 8th. I just never posted it, but I was chatting with AI to see how many months, days, weeks, or years equaled how many candles. So, I picked the 91-day timeframe because I will normally be on the right side of the trend most of the time, as that is higher than the monthly, weekly, daily, etc. in terms of higher timeframe bias.
PART 2:
DXY, Wedge Confirmed, Once Targets Reached Further Resolution!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the recent events happening in DXY, the current formation-structure and what we can expect from DXY the next days and weeks, there are some significant signals which I discovered and making it clearer in which direction we will trade with the overall index. As the world economy still struggling because of the corona-restrictions the virus has enabled we see meaningful levels of alternation not only in the stock-market but also in major leading currencies, as the corona-crisis established and increased we saw heavy volatility also in the DXY, for now, it seems to stabilize and consolidate but that can change in the next times when differences begin to increase between the currency-pairs, therefore we are looking at the weekly,daily and 4-hour perspective.
4-Hour Timeframe (Short-Term):
As you can see marked in blue in my chart DXY build a symmetrical wedge which recently confirmed with high volatility to the downside, for now we have the wedge target fully activated but there can also come a confirmation when the price comes back to the lower boundary as you can see in my chart before continuing to the downside, the leg to the downside can be traded aggressively with an immediate entry or conservative after confirmation. The best way in this structure is to wait after the DXY confirmed at the lower boundary of its wedge.
1-Day Timeframe (Middle-Term):
ON the daily timeframe we see some really really interesting and meaningful signs which can determine the further result of DXY, as you can see we have the local target at 96.5 which will be reached within the next time, from that point on we need to see and elevate how DXY can establish further, when we get stabilization in that level it is possible to build a reversal there and get back to previous bullishness otherwise when we fall below the target level and even lower DXY will end up in the bearish-zone you can see marked in my chart below the 94.8 level, on contrary for a bullish continuation we need to cross the falling grey trend line to the upside to end in the bullish-zone. These levels are highly important for the outcome and we need to watch out and be prepared when the time comes and either the bearish or bullish scenario plays out.
Weekly Timeframe (Long-Term):
Here we have the fundamental factors including the 4-hour and daily timeframe in the weekly timeframe which is building a huge constituitve range with a higher range boundary and coherent resistance and a lower range boundary with coherent support which needs to behold for a possible reversal and continuation, below the support level is a highly bearish zone for DXY. We have an uprising support line which you can see marked in grey, it is within the likely spectrum that we reach that line, from that level we need to confirm a stabilization in the price for a bullish outlook otherwise when DXY falls below that level it will be bearish and the next important target will be aimed at the support level at 88.7 which you see marked with the orange line in my chart.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, have a good time and all the best!
There are many roads to prosperity in the modern economy, but one must be contemplated.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
USDJPY, Develelops Rising Wedge, Target Ahead When Confirmed! Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the current situation is USDJPY and where we are heading further with price-action, I found some significant signs and signals which will determine the further outcome of USDJPY, at the moment it is still trading in an uptrend but this can change dramatically as the uptrend is weakening. Therefore we are looking at the 4-hour locally timeframe.
As you can see in my chart USDJPY is trading in an overall weakening uptrend on the middle-term which is building an excellent rising wedge at the moment, with already three touches of the lower boundary and two touches of the higher boundary. Such formations almost always break to the downside with a high percentage probability and as we are in a weakening uptrend this probability increases highly within the current situation facing USDJPY.
There is still a third touch of the upper boundary remaining which you can see marked in my chart, after this touch it is heavily possible that we will get a reversal there which will catapult us outside the wedge to the downside. As you can see this whole scenario needs to be confirmed with a break of the lower boudnary as marked in my chart, when this happens the target at 106.5 which you can see marked in orange will be activated.
At the moment this is an optimal textbook opportunity for trading USDJPY on the short-side but even though this is a high possible short-setup there is still a little percentage possibility remaining that it will break to the upside, in this case, it is the smartest option to wait for the confirmation like marked in my chart to set up the short there will be still huge profit potential left. After this scenario has confirmed completely we need to elevate and watch if USDJPY manages to hold the support and form a support or more downside is expected.
Alright, thanks to everybody for watching, support for more market insight, and all the best!
The ambition to transform opportunity into gold remains the most significant tool for a trader.
In this manner: FAREWELL
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
GBPJPY, Bounced At Key-Level, Suggesting More Upside Potential! Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the current fundamental and important price action and its structure occurring in the GBPJPY contemplating further outcome, there are some important and meaningful signs which are indicating that we will continue with the overall trend with which we began after bouncing at the key-level at 124 when the smaller correction has completed.
When looking at my chart we can see that GBPJPY is at the moment correction the heavy up-ward movement we have seen from 124 to 135, this is natural and will occur in a trend, the question now is if it is just a smaller correction or a reversal to the downside, this can be answered when looking at the overall heavy volume and momentum with which the upward-move occurred, therefore, it is not a weak move and this is implying to us that a continuation to the upside is within the possible spectrum.
As you can see the next significant support is at the 128.6 level which is marked in orange, when we visit this level we will highly likely bounce there. If this occurs like imagined we can see the uptrend approaching the higher resistance level at 135 which you can see marked in grey and the important 50-EMA in orange which is still resistance but can be taken out, these levels building a logical resistance-confluence zone which we will first test after moving possibly higher to the bigger falling resistance line you can see marked in blue.
Overall we can keep in mind that the bullish trend established from the key-level can continue but that has to be confirmed rightly and for a further continuation with a new high in the structure we need to take out the important resistance-zones already mentioned. This structure can be traded with an aggressive entry after the support-level touched or with a conservative entry after confirming the continuation trend with the proper volume and momentum.
Thanks for watching the analysis, support for more market insight, and all the best.
The market will teach us when to enter and when to keep patient.
In this manner: FAREWELL
Information provided is only for educational purposes and should not be used to take action in the markets.
AUDUSD, Rising Trendline Broken, Will Test Remaining Resistance!Hello, Traders Investors And Community And welcome to this analysis about AUDUSD and its current situation in the remaining weakening up-trend, there are some important signs I detected in the current price-action AUDUSD is showing us. We are looking at the 4-hour local time-frame. AUDUSD is still in an overall uptrend but the price begins to weaken therefore we will test higher levels and to continue with the trend AUDUSD need to establish stable support here. Lets go!
When looking at my chart we can see that AUDUSD is still trading in an overall bullish trend but currently and seen in the last days and week the trend begins to struggle as we are approaching several resistance levels this is why AUDUSD crossed the first trend-line already successfully to the downside as you can see in my chart after that happened AUDUSD wanted to test higher levels and finally formed a new higher high with a second trend-line which got broken just the last days as you can see it in my chart.
The big common ground in both breakdowns is that AUDUSD actually tested the trend-line before moving a little bit down and confirming the 200-EMA as support the same will happen now again as the trend is weak on the short-time scale although the difference now is that what was the 200-EMA to test before is now the 100-EMA, you can see this scenario in the chart. Furthermore, as we have still serious support in this area minimum the test of higher levels is in the possible spectrum and shouldn't be ignored.
What we need to know now is that the next important resistance is at the 0.65569 level which you see in the chart marked with the grey trend-line, it also matches with the rising blue trend-line and building a logical confluence-zone there. After that we can get the next confirmation at the 100-EMA and moving higher to test the second grey resistance level at 0.67058 to form a possible higher high, it will be a similar mechanism to the higher high we have formed in the previous uptrend as you see it in my chart.
To continue with the overall bullish trend we have to establish more support in that area and hold the range otherwise we can still fall down as the global momentum begins to slow down and the bulls weakening, the first big confirmation in this scenario will be when we confirm below the 100 and 200-EMA and form a bearish cross this will be a stable signal to open a short position otherwise we are still remaining in the bullish trend and need to look if and how it can continue with the bullish scenario.
This should give you a good overview of the situation, have a good day, and support for more market insight!
“All I have seen teaches me to trust the Creator for all I have not seen.”
In this manner: FAREWELL
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
👻The Movers and Shakers: Meet the Big Forex Players👻
🍀The forex market is a dynamic and complex marketplace, with billions of dollars changing hands every day. At the center of this volatile financial landscape are a handful of key players who wield immense power and influence over the direction of global currencies. In this article, we'll introduce you to some of the biggest and most influential forex market players.
🌸The Central Banks: "We set the tone for the entire forex market."
Perhaps the most important forex market players are the world's central banks. These powerful institutions have the ability to control the supply and demand of their respective currencies, through interest rate policies and other monetary maneuvers. Whenever a central bank makes a move, traders around the world sit up and take notice.
🌺The Big Banks: "We are the gatekeepers of the forex market."
Big banks are another major group of forex market players, and they play a critical role in providing liquidity to the market itself. These institutions act as intermediaries, buying and selling currencies on behalf of their clients and helping to facilitate trades between different market players.
🌼Hedge Funds and Trading Firms: "We thrive on volatility and uncertainty."
Hedge funds and trading firms are a relatively new entrant to the forex market, but they have quickly become some of the most important players. These firms are often staffed by experienced traders and analysts who use complex algorithms and trading strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements.
🌹In conclusion, the forex market is a complex and ever-evolving landscape, but understanding the key players involved can help investors and traders make more informed decisions. Whether you're following the moves of central banks, working with big banks, or leveraging the insights of hedge funds and trading firms, the forex market is full of opportunities for those who are willing to take the risk.
Please cheer me up with a like and a nice comment😸❤️
Please, support my work with like and comment!
Love you, my dear followers!👩💻🌸
Basic Understanding of Market StructureWelcome to the Game Of Resilience .. Structure is the King structure tells everything that you can go for buy or sell trades . sometimes structure will confuse you too so understanding the structure is some what tricky point all over the internet because everyone have a different perspective so coming to the point just this post is to understand the basics of what is market structure and what strong highs and low .
How to Choose the Right Indicator?Many traders, especially when starting out find themselves in a constant search of the best trading strategy.
A quick Google search is enough to scare anyone starting out, as the number of indicators and strategies to use under different market conditions is overwhelming.
🗒In this article, we will discuss *1* indicators nature and the correct way to use it, *2* how to choose the right indicator, and most importantly *3* how to know if the indicator is reliable or not.
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📌 First, what are indicators? Origin and Nature
Indicators are statistical tools that digest price data, OHLC of each candle, add a formula to it, and then convert it into visual information such as graphs or oscillators. Indicators provide information about the strength of a trend, momentum, and possible reversals.
When it comes to indicators, we can divide them into four classes: Momentum indicators, Trend indicators, Volatility indicators, Volume Indicators.
Knowing which one belongs to which category can help you make much better trading decisions. On the other hand, combining indicators in a wrong way can lead to a lot of confusion, wrong price interpretation, and, subsequently, to wrong trading decisions.
📌 The correct way to use indicators. Indicators don’t provide signals.
Most traders never look at the indicators they are using and even less have ever tried to understand the formula the indicator uses to analyze price. They then use their indicators in the wrong context and wonder why nothing works.
🗒Indicators don’t tell you when to buy or when to sell. They don’t even tell you when something is overbought or oversold.
Indicators are great tools if a trader understands their true purpose. Indicators provide information about price, how the price has moved, how candles have shaped, and how recent price action compares to historical price action. Again, not a direct signal to buy or sell.
Thus, the job of a trader is to interpret the information on their indicators in a meaningful way and turn it into a story about price action and buying/selling pressure.
Who is in control right now? Is the market ranging or trending? Is price losing strength or gaining momentum?
📌 How to choose the right indicator? That suits your trading style and personality
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📕 * Meaningful: Represents important information.
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Your indicator choice should match your trading style. The purpose of indicators/strategies is to offer a way to identify clues and to provide a framework for traders to work in. Our main job, as traders, is to collect clues and combine them in a meaningful way to have an edge over the market.
🗒 Only add indicators that help you put the odds in your favor. -- If it doesn’t, you don’t need it.
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📕 * Objective: Has a clear operational definition of what is being measured.
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Indicators are ideal for rule-based trading as indicators take out the guesswork by providing information that is totally objective especially for newbies who are struggling with discipline.
The most successful strategies/indicators are those where not a lot of individual interpretation is required.
🗒 Only use indicators that help you make objective decisions. -- If it doesn’t, you don’t need it.
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📕 * Understandable: Easy to comprehend and interpret.
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Indicators are great tools especially for amateurs who do not know how to relate price data into meaningful relationships.
Indicators' main purpose is to make your life easier, not more sophisticated.
🗒 Remember: K.I.S.S. Keep it simple stupid! -- If it is complicated, you don’t need it.
📕 Last but not least, less is more:
The problem with indicator redundancy is that when a trader picks multiple indicators that show the same information, he/she ends up giving too much weight to the information provided by the indicators.
🗒 “All Strategies / Indicators are good; if managed properly.”
~ Richard Nasr
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📌 How to know if the indicator is reliable? Cheat Sheet Checklist
📕 * Does it repaint, disappear or recalculate?
We have all been there. An indicator looking good /profitable on the chart, but perform horribly under live market conditions. Most indicators are designed to only show/keep winning signals. Do not, ever, include an indicator in your trading plan before testing it on a demo account.
🗒 Here is a simple step by step guide on how to test indicators:
- Attach your indicator to any chart.
- Keep your trading platform running for a while for the indicator to plot a couple of signals.
- Take a screenshot of the chart.
- Refresh by switching between the timeframes.
- Compare your chart with the screenshot
If the indicator’s signals /drawings change location or disappear, then it is a red flag. Such indicators are not reliable and shouldn’t be used in any way.
📕 * Does it lag?
In general, indicators are lagging, but so is price action. An indicator can only analyze what has happened already. Just as a candlestick or chart pattern only includes past price data.
Nothing to worry about so far, as we mentioned above, indicators only provide information and do not offer signals.
However, some indicators are too lagging. This kind of indicators looks good on historical data but appear too late under live market conditions.
🗒 Pro Tip: Always take into consideration when, where, and how does the signal appear.
📕 * Is it TradingView friendly?
90% of custom indicators do not work on TradingView, because PineScript does not allow recalculation. Thus, the signal/drawing can’t be modified once it is generated by the indicator.
Therefore, indicators that are available on TradingView stand out from the crowd, and they are considered more reliable.
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📌 In brief, indicators are very famous tools and used by millions of traders. However, often traders don’t really know what their indicators are doing or how to use them.
Always be aware of the objectives of your trading style and what you are trying to accomplish with the indicators. Then, adjust accordingly. Once a trader can stop using indicators as signal-tools, he will be able to transform his trading to new heights.
Happy trading!
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
~Rich
RLinda ! EURUSD-> Trend change or correction? EURUSD in early November is trying to change the global downtrend. A number of positive fundamental factors contributed to this maneuver. The price confirms the change of the trend and at some point breaks through the resistance of the uptrend channel, indicating to us a more accelerated recovery. But a false break-down of the resistance at 1.02692 is formed.
In the chart, we see a break-down of the base support at 1.02692, which was also the base for the H&S pattern. Ahead is the level of 0.618, from which a pullback might follow, and if the price makes a false-break of the upper boundary of the channel, there is a chance to see the continuation of strengthening of the euro.
But in case of breakdown of the key area and consolidation of the price under the channel resistance, the price may fall to support 0.9926.
Regards R. Linda!
RLinda ! USDJPY-> Symmetrical triangle. Keep falling? USDJPY is forming a technical pullback. The Japanese Yen is strengthening on fundamentals. The price is falling 9.4% from its high of 151.940 to 137.650.
(Chart 1. Daily chart. Technical analysis)
Global chart:
A support level of 138.460 is formed, the level is tested by a false breakdown, but without a pullback. A consolidation with locally lowering daily highs is formed.
The currency pair finds for itself resistance from the daily MA-50 and seeks support MA-200 (daily)
Daily RSI comes out of the oversold area and shows a bullish signal
Daily MACD is in a bearish zone and is gaining ground
On the hourly chart there is no pullback after the strong drop. The price is consolidating at 139.388, but at the same time a symmetrical triangle is forming, which plays the role of a trend continuation pattern. I expect breakdown of the triangle support and the price fall to the liquidity zone 135.80
Regards R. Linda!
20 reason for buy gold update 01/08/2022
1 Structure 12: bullish
2 imbalances: filled
3 Current Move impulse
4 Entry TF: h1
4.1 ETF Structure: bullish
4.2 move: bullish
5 Support resistance support at the h4 order block
6 FIB: trigger event Occurred
7-candle Pattern: spinning top
8 Chart Pattern: double bottom
9 Volume: Execution
10 Momentum: support at 40 measure by rsi
11 Volatility: lower band support Bollinger bands
12 strength: Adx sideways
13 Sentiment: buy
14 Final conclusion: buy at the point
15 Buy /Sell/Wait: buy
16 Entry: right now
17 Stop lose: 1637
18 Take profit: 1690
19 Risk to reward Ratio: 1:5
Excepted Duration: 2 days
RLinda ! USDJPY-> Waiting for resistance breakdownWe see a slight decline in the dollar index and thus a reaction of the currency market, but with the USDJPY the story is different. There is a resistance level of 144.78 on the chart, relative to which we saw a shakeout last week against the background of the news release. The price tested the support at 142.736, but it did not go back down.
The global chart gives us a glimpse of two serious resistance levels, which can turn the price around quite strongly. The first and the nearest one is 146.79, and the second one is 159.35. These zones were formed in the 90's. After the distributive growth, formation of correction should be expected. The support zone 134.00 will be the target in this case.
I assume that on the local timeframes, a breakdown of resistance should be expected, as the major players are obviously interested in the area of 144.78 - 147.67, the price has stuck to the level from below and is pressing down, forming an upward trend. I expect a breakdown of the limit resistance and growth of the price to 147.67
Regards R. Linda!
RLinda ! EURUSD -> Review for the new weekEURUSD is trading in a global downtrend, currently the price is in the critical zone for the last 20 years. After a false breakdown and a test of 0.99000, the price forms a local rise.
I have drawn a local support trend line on the chart, which shows how price is behaving. We have a local uptrend, but it is under a strong support level of 1,000, it is hard to speculate what will happen next.
I assume that there are high chances that the falling trend will continue, but what the price shows now, can be a precondition for further growth.
Regards R.Linda!
How To Analyze Any Chart From Scratch - Episode 11Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
Today we are going to go over a practical example on GBPAUD, but you can apply the same logic / strategy on any instrument.
Feel free to ask questions or request any instrument for the next episode.
You can find the previous episodes below "Related Ideas"
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich