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Sterling Vs. Yen. Weekly Analysis Aug 14-18Last week we saw GBP/JPY fall flat on its face melting dollar after dollar. A lot of this had to do with the recent strength of the safe haven currency YEN which went up a good amount against USD due to recent issues between Trump and his counterpart from North Korea. It has since fell down to a nice support zone. We have a confirmed EMA cross on the daily chart so this week we can expect some push up for liquidity to retest the EMA before a further drop either back into the demand zone or to make a lower low into another major demand zone which has been plotted on the chart in the 140.000 area. If we do retest the EMA in a daily supply zone that can give opportunities for fresh selling positions.
by nick.trader4
XAUUSD (GOLD)- USD TREND ANALYSIS W/FUNDAMENTALS After last weeks NFP results were positive and price action looked good to support the fundamentals I was thinking longs for USD, which is bearish for Gold. Of course this was not the case as we had new fundamentals break that stated issues between North Korea and the USA. Important to stay flexible and keep up with news as things can change quickly and the bull trend continued, infact it actually picked up after retesting a new major support and making higher highs. Gold has now approached a really major resistance zone that has previously been rejected twice, could the third time be the charm for a break? We will see what happens this week, we may start a period of consolidation if both these major zones hold strong, enough for liquidity to be enough to push price higher. There should be enough volume and volatility this week with all the news events including FOMC statements.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nick.trader4
XAUUSD Broke Trend- GOLDUsing the previous week analysis on the 4hr timeframe to confluence USDJPY weekly analysis we see that weaker dollar caused by fundamental remarks/issues and bad economic data Gold broke its trend and looks to be starting a run of higher highs and higher lows. This can be confirmed by the inverted head and shoulders pattern better seen on the daily, also a potential EMA cross would add to the list of confirmations which looks like a possibility. If the dollar continues to weaken 1240 zone seems like reasonable upside target.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nick.trader4
Selling Position - NZD/USDNZD/USD has rallied by more then 4/5% since May without a pullback. The signs I see is that a divergence has formed on the RSI and the stochastic indicating that its overbought on the weekly (You can see whenever the stochastic hits overbought levels there is a drop) and lastly it has broken through the more then 1 month old trend line and also struggled to breakthrough the resistance trend line which whenever it got tested it has dropped which you can see that a bearish candle has formed when it couldn't breakthrough. With all of these signs I feel that its a SELL .
Short
by Jamal92
GbpUsd 4H - Broken Trendline, Kangaroo Tail, Double TopGbpUsd is bearish, and it will remain so for this month. I believe lows will be reached in monthly support zones. In any case, this trade is short term aiming the first TP on previous recent structure. Furthermore, the kangaroo tail has printed before the breakout as the doible top formation was formed. Ask questions & Give comments!! Bests ------------------------------ Refernces: Naked Forex (book), Akil Stokes (trader).
Short
by PipMorningstar
USD/JPY- A special something caught my eye. So far the downtrend has been continuing throughout 2017. This week something caught my eye, this was the closing of a previous unfilled gap and the bounce off a major support at 110.100. This set the first Higher High moving upwards but still remains below the major TL which it just tapped before moving away. The reason for the significance is for the upcoming FED rate hike decision which has the fundamental power to shift trends, so more or less we will be waiting to hear the decision (most likely a rate hike) and further commentary about future rate hikes. The data for USD hasn't been all that impressive and the FED has dropped its chances for a hike during the September meeting. So lets be patient and see where P.A takes us.. we can either start a new trend which would be cool or simply just continue shorting USD. This analysis can be used in pairing with my previous analysis on gold for trading confluences.
by nick.trader4
USD/JPY- Still ranging... awaiting breakout. USD/JPY has still been in a ranging market structure between 111.000-111.800. Since the Fed rate hike a couple weeks ago UJ has found itself stuck between these prices, to me it looks like bullish consolidation based on the trendlines, EMA and double bottom pattern. Although I have a long bias on USD I dont know which way this pair will trade until we hear the speech given by FED chair Janet Yellen tomorrow afternoon (EDT). I will be looking for any hawkish comments made that indicate the FED plans to go through with atleast another (maybe 2) rate hikes this year despite the weaker economic data we have seen since 1 month ago. Although previous NFP data didn't change the views of the FED outlook for the rest of 2017 they planned to stay on course after the last meeting, this gave USD a jolt up to higher prices. If for whatever reason the FED determines that next week NFP could be worse than previous and economic data does not support the plan of further tightening of monetary policy USD could lose strength.
by nick.trader4
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GOLD- End of a trend? Since 2017 started USD has been bearish, causing Gold prices to rise. Now half way through the year will the trend change? We have a FED rate decision on Wednesday (JUNE 14) which could be the catalyst for a reversal or confirmed continuation. The FED is expected to raise rates but have shed doubts on further tightening this year based on the weaker data that has been coming in highlighted by last weeks sluggish employment report. Furthermore, 1295 zone has been rejected (doesn't look like consolidation in the past). The next major zone is the 1260 area in which we can expect a bounce or a break leaving us with confirmation of continued upside or a series of LH, LL. The significance of this 1260 area would break the sequence of HH and HL that have been forming throughout 2017.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by nick.trader4
AUD/USD- potential trend reversal. The AUD is the one currency that hasn't been gaining on USD in 2017 like most currencies. I think this downtrend on AU could be coming to an end shortly, we bounced off some major levels and the last bounce was a Lower High. This could be the start of what looks like more upside in the future. As we know USD fundamentals are not that strong and USD looks to weaken overall. Also AUD has lost some of its correlation with gold so I expect that to resume a bit more and help AUD rise as gold is on the rise as well based off a weaker dollar. A confirmation of the trend reversal from down to up would be another set of HH, HL and a nice healthy cross of the 14x50 ema.
Long
by nick.trader4
Fiber - Trend Continuation (EURUSD) Previous analysis on Fiber was for a move down to the major support zone to start the week. After the major support zone was touched a strong rejection occurred causing the overall uptrend to continue as we have ended the sequence of lower highs. The reasons for a shift back to the uptrend are stated in the picture. Higher Highs now expected again with a retest of the high coming first then, if successful in breaking the current high, 1.13xxx would be the next target area, a level we have not seen since before U.S. President Trump was elected back in Nov. 2016.
Long
by nick.trader4