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SasanSeifi💁‍♂️AUD/NZD.6H UPDATE🔥😍✅ 127 PIP HI TRADERS ✌As you can see, according to the scenario, the price was able to correct about 127 pips up to the correction target range of 1.087/1.084🔥✌. It is currently trading in the range of 1.084. We can expect a positive reaction from the range of demand zone.It should be seen how the price will react to the specified ranges. Otherwise, if the price penetrates below the range of 1.074 and stabilizes, the possibility of further correction can be considered. ❎ (DYOR)...⚠⚜ What Do you think about this analysis? I will be glad to know your idea 🙂✌ IF you like my analysis please LIKE and comment 🙏✌
by SasanSeifi
Has the market become overly positive and reliant on a Fed PivotThe Fed hasn't changed their narrative on getting inflation back to 2% at all costs, because inflation has been dropping the market is trying to front run the fed in anticipating a pivot on interest rates. However as J Powell has said countless times over and over again, the Fed's priority is to restore price stability at all costs. This means they are willing to crash the economy (we're just starting to see the signs of an economic downturn now) in the pursuit of getting inflation under control. Inflation is going to get sticky now and you'd be naive to think that it's going to keep falling as it has done the last few months. Whilst the Fed is slowing down the rate hikes, they're still hiking and likely will increase the terminal rate until we have positive real rates which is something we haven't had for quite some time. Oil and Gas prices are pretty much back to where they were pre Ukraine war, this is unlikely to last as we have entered a commodities super cycle and most countries have been stockpiling reserves, yet the IEA pointed out that OPEC+ will struggle to meet the demand in the coming year as a result we'll once again see oil and gas prices starting to climb again especially now China is coming back online (China reopening will be inflationary alone). Fundamentals aside looking at the charts, the dollar is oversold on most indicators and we've retraced into the 50% fib retracement area. We are prime for a bounce and I think we have just bottomed this week, with GDP, PCE and the Fed interest rate and guidance all to come in the next two weeks we could see a very aggressive dollar rally should they continue to stick to their narrative of keeping rates high for an exteneded period of time to combat inflation even though they are forcing the economy into a recession.
TVC:DXYLong
by RAA_Trading
How Much Can You Make Trading Forex?Mark Twain once said: “There are lies, damn lies and statistics”. People lie, numbers usually don’t, unless manipulated by liars. If you ask somebody trying to sell you a course or some other products related to the market, they’ll promise you 3x of your money in a week and convince you can start in couple days. Sounds too good to be true? Because it is. One way to return to reality in the industry where everybody is showing off their gains and concealing loses is to look at other financial aspects of life (not in a self-diminishing way, but rather self-awaking). Average General Doctors make 41.000$/year in UK. What makes you think you can make that much in a month with even a 100.000$ account? Banks deposit interests are currently at low of 0.1-0.25%/year. This is self-explanatory as banks are perceived as one of the most conservative ways of keeping your money. S&P500 averages around 9.4%/year. 47% of Americans have invested one way or another (pension funds and 401k’s) into S&P500 as a good balance between security and profitability. What do you think is the risk should be to make 25x of that in a year? Answer: 3.5-5% per trade. Most of the market participants don't risk more than 1%/trade. Why wouldn’t they risk 5% per trade for more gains? Answer: you’ll get wiped out in couple trades :/ Becoming a lawyer takes 7 years on average. Why would somebody think that watching 2 videos on YouTube or reading 7 articles is enough to place a trade? Answer: Here, unfortunately, some brokers and traders try to convince newbies, in order to take advantage of them quickly. However, trust us, trading is no different than other full-time skills you have to acquire over long periods of time. Leading investment funds experience ROI drops every 3.4 months. Would you still think profitability 12/12 months a year is realistic? Answer: It is not. Bottom Line: Trading Forex is an interesting and rewarding way of making money, but the truth is even the best traders don’t usually make more than 5-15% a month on average. On the other hand, %s don’t matter. What matters is your personal demands! If you need to make 1000$ as a side income to add more comfortability to your life a 10.000-20.000$ account with a proper trading plan should do the job. If you’re trying to become financially independent do the math accordingly 😊 Oh and also, if somebody tries to tell you something marked red in the Myths section, respectfully, stay away from them! (RUN!)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Investroy
19
TRADE OF THE WEEK | Price Action Trading💰 Hey traders, Here is a great long trade that I caught this week on GBPJPY. The price reached 149.0 major daily key structure support. Watching the reaction of the price to that structure, I spotted a double bottom formation on 1H time frame. The trigger that I was looking for was a bullish breakout of its neckline (hourly candle close above). Once the price broke that, I opened a buy limit order on its retest. Then, with coming UK news we saw a massive bullish rally. +230 pips of pure profit. A great example of how nice winners a rule-based strategy occasionally brings. Have a great weekend! ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
18
Gold +10 Profits & Next MoveCurrently gold is consolidating in this triangle formation. We executed a quick trade on the bottom support with a TP at 1888 top of resistance for a trade before the weekend. We will now stop all trading to secure this weeks profits and wait for a break of this triangle. We are still buyers following the bullish trend looking for the best levels to buy in. Be sure to enter the correct areas. Always have a PLAN B & Stop loss on every trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GlobalHealthWealth
EURUSD Waiting for the Long TradeEURUSD looking bearish on the opening of the market. All about patience. We will wait for the Long setup for the swing trade and day trade for the short setups. As outlined on the chart we have safety levels set up to help us determine in which way the market will move. If Price breaks and closes below 1.11200 then we can see down side movement to the "D" Extension 1.1000. However, if we see bullish price movement at price level 1.11200 then we can expect a bullish harmonic pattern back up to our achieved target. If this does happen then we would re analyse the chart to see whether it is a good short trade down to 1.1000 or a continuation to the upside. The Final setup would be if price breaks and closes above the 200 EMA and the "Neutral Zone" then we would see further bullish momentum up to our achieved target then possibly higher. I have been stating for months that EURUSD target is 1.2000. However, due to uncertainty and manipulative data I do not know exactly know how long it would take to hit this level. But It is possible for this pair to see 1.1000 once more before it moves up.
by SERGENAYTUG94
Expectancy Revisited: Improving your ProfitabilityTEST YOUR TRADING SYSTEM I will not go deep into this, because it quickly becomes a shouting match on who has the best system, which is usually more about ego than fact. It is sufficient to say that I have seen / know of profitable traders who use fundamentals, price patterns, Elliot waves, renko, moving averages, structure levels, pitchforks, trend rules and custom indicators. I will not get into which system is the best, because I have not back tested them all personally. This does not imply that it does not matter what system you use. Far from it. You need a system that gives you an edge. And the only way to know if it does, is to back test it against a relevant amount of data. ADD FILTERS Adding filters to your strategy aims at improving your win rate by eliminating losers. It’s a way to get the odds on your side over a larger number of trades. Examples of filters you could add are: trade with the daily trend, trade with the fundamental direction, filter out unprofitable patterns, don’t trade during news events, only trade reversal patterns that complete at a key structure level, only trade breakouts after a retest of the trend line, add an extra indicator (e.g. stoch or sma line crossover or rsi divergence) or use a particular candlestick as a final entry signal. There might be a price to pay: if a particular filter delays your entry point, it can improve your win rate while reducing your reward – risk. INCREASE THE OPPORTUNITY FACTOR The opportunity factor relates to how many trades your method allows you to take per day / week / month. If by adding filters you are left with just a few possible trades a week, your win rate can go up, but your overall profit might suffer because there would be fewer trade candidates passing through to your filters. This will leave you with fewer trades to contribute to your overall profitability. You can increase this factor by adding more currency pairs to your portfolio or by adding trading hours to your schedule. When adding pairs, be aware of the correlation to the ones already in your portfolio. IMPROVE YOUR TRADE MANAGEMENT RULES Trade management relates to profiting from the trades you decide to enter. It aims at maximising your average winner while minimizing your average loser. The key is having rules that let winners run and exit losing trades without hesitation. Aim for realistic profit targets by reviewing the profit logic of your trades. Predefine a risk that you accept and don’t exceed. One of the ways you can do this, is by managing your trades in a multi-position manner, aiming for several profit targets. Take profit at various stages, as the market makes it available to you and roll your stop loss to break even or a profit protection point as the trade progresses. DISCILPLINE AND CONSISTENCY Once you have the right system, rules and filters in place, you just need to trade your plan consistently day in and day out. Monitor your susceptibility for making errors and eliminate them one by one. Relaxed, concentrated and mindful like a Zen Monk. Don’t overtrade by chasing entries. Don’t under-trade by arbitrarily skipping valid opportunities. Be organized and prepared. A random, inconsistent approach to trading leads to random, inconsistent results that will never be optimal. So plan your trade and trade your plan. TYING IT ALL TOGETHER Simply put, your expectancy per month is the opportunity factor multiplied by both the win rate and the average winner less the opportunity factor multiplied by both the lose rate and the average loser. For the example from my prior topic (see the link under Related Ideas), we know that the calculation was as follows: expectancy per month = 90 x 55% x €120,00 – 90 x 45% x €80,00 = €2.700,00. I have tried to give some tips and trick on how to influence each of the variables in this calculation with the aim to arrive at an improved mix, leading to an improved profitability.
Education
by JazzForex
21
Expectancy: How Profitable is your Trading Strategy?As we all know, when we open a trade, there is no guarantee it will be a winner. Given the win rate of a certain trading strategy, there is a random distribution between wins and losses. We trade to make money over a larger number of trades, not to win every individual trade, which would simply be unrealistic. That is why it’s important to be confident when we place a trade. So we don’t “panic close” the trade when the market goes against us, or exit too soon when we are in profit. If you know the expectancy of your trading strategy, you will be able to deal with these situations better. There is a psychological aspect here: knowing the predictable profitability of a larger number of trades you undertake will build your confidence, which in turn reduces your tendency to shortcut winners and to let losers run too long. Having this confidence will thereby improve your overall results. In December I developed a spreadsheet for myself, linked to my trading records, where I calculate several performance indicators, among which expectancy. How to determine the expectancy of your trading system? Assuming you keep records of your trades, you should go back and look at all your trades that were profitable versus all your losing trades. Do this over a period of at least 3 months and at least 100 trades. The more data you can use, the more accurate the result. We only need 4 pieces of information: number of winning trades, number of losing trades, amount of money won and amount of money lost. From this data we can calculate the following: Net profit = amount of money won - amount of money lost Win rate = number of winning trades / total number of trades Lose rate = 1 - win rate Average winner = amount of money won / total number of winners Average loser = amount of money lost / total number of losers Average reward / risk = average winner / average loser Expectancy per trade = win rate x average winner – lose rate x average loser Or, alternatively, expectancy per trade = net profit / total # trades Expectancy per month (profit forecast) = expectancy per trade x average # trades per month Expectancy per amount of money risked = win rate x (average reward / risk + 1) – 1 Or, alternatively, expectancy per amount of money risked = net profit / average loser / total # trades I will illustrate this with an example for a euro account. Lets assume we have been trading for 6 months and made a total of 540 trades. 297 of them were profitable and 243 were not, with €35.640,00 profit coming from the winning trades and €19.440,00 loss stemming from the losing trades. Lets make the calculations: Net profit = €35.640,00 - €19.440,00 = €16.200,00 Win rate = 297 / 540 = 55% Lose rate = 1 - 55% = 45% Average winner = €35.640,00 / 297 = €120,00 Average loser = €19.440,00 / 243 = €80,00 Average reward / risk = €120,00 / €80,00 = 1,5 Expectancy per trade = 55% x €120,00 – 45% x €80,00 = €30,00 Or, alternatively, expectancy per trade = €16.200,00 / 540 = €30,00 In our example the expectancy per trade is €30,00. This means, on average (over many trades), each trade will contribute €30,00 to the overall P&L. Expectancy per month = €30,00 x 540 / 6 = €2.700,00 In our example we can forecast a monthly profit of €2.700,00 based on prior performance. Expectancy per € risked = 55% x (1,5 + 1) – 1 = 38% Or, alternatively, expectancy per € risked = €16.200,00 / €80,00 / 540 = 0,38 In our example the expectancy of the trading strategy is 38%. That means the trading strategy will eventually (over many trades) return 38 eurocents for each euro risked. Once you know your expectancy, as a function of your own trading statistics, you can forecast how much you could make per week, per month and per year.
Education
by JazzForex
35