Forex-strategies
EURJPY Multi Time Frame critial areas- 2 possible opportunities Yellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly time frame
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
In the bigger picture both EUR and JPY are with a big amount of “long” COT contracts. Both are at record highs right now, especially the EUR. As I said last week- strong pressure from the “short” contract size may kick anytime soon and it already has.
In the beginning of June price successfully broke the 124.000 area, but could not manage to make a good close above it and to continue the strong momentum, so the price when down towards the 0,5 Fibonacci retracement level where strong buying pressure came in. The 0.382 Fibonacci level was seen as support, but we must be careful with the 0.236 as well, because it may be a good pressure point sell/buy volatility.
There are 2 possible scenarios:
1. Since the 0.5 Fibonacci support the price has gone slightly up and it is in a closed triangle structure for 3 weeks now. For a month now a wide-angle formation is respected multiple times, which can be an indicator for a false breakout towards the 124.000 or the 125.000 monthly critical. If the price respects the wide-angle formation and goes towards the monthly critical a strong rejection-confirmation will be needed in order to enter the opposite trend. If that happens a move to the 116 area is a high possibility.
2. If the price doesn’t respect the wide-angle formation or makes multiple tops near the 0.236 Fibonacci level (which is also a strong resistance point) and breaks the closed triangle- a move towards the 119.5- 4h support zone is a must. There we must see how the price reacts in order to determine its next moves.
Happy Trading!
EURCAD NeutralYellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly time frame
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
From last week’s COT report we can notice a hold in the progress of bullish contracts for the Euro . Right now, they are at a record high (345k) so a reverse in the bearish direction is most likely to happen in the near future. While the CAD shows signs for a rapid increase in the “long” contracts.
Since my last report on this pair, the price respected a few more times our wide-angle formation. For more than 3 weeks we are also in a consolidation inside our wide-angle formation.
NOW: There are a few paths the price can take in the upcoming week.
1. Respecting the wide-angle and consolidation, which aligns almost perfectly and going towards the monthly critical in order to form a W formation. Matching with them is the golden 0.618 Fibonacci level, where additional buyer’s support may come in. With this new formation a possible break over the monthly critical is possible.
2. The second possibility is for the price to break our wide-angle formation and consolidation. In this case a move towards the daily critical and afterwards towards the monthly critical are most likely to happen.
Market Correction Approaching? [S&P Q4 2019]ARE WE ABOUT TO SEE A MARKET CORRECTION?
As we finish off Q3 2019 and approach Q4 2019, we see that S&P is holding strongly about its new all time high. However, exactly a year ago, as September 2018 wrapped up, it started the great correction of 2018. Whereby the market erased all of the gains it made for the whole year. Some would argue that the crash started in Dec 2018 with none other than President Trump himself officiating the opening ceremony with his famous tweet "I am a tariff man". However on hindsight, I personally believe that the 2018's great correction started at the end of September for the following reasons:
1. The October Effect - Whether you believe it or not, this psychological effect has many times spooked market investors over and over again.
2. Portfolio Re-balancing - Institutions would normally re-balance their books and portfolios
3. Global negative events - Trade War, yield curve inversion and economic slowdown
Fast forward to today, as we approach the last week of September 2019, our investment climate mirrors exactly the climate 1 year ago.
Technically speaking:
1. Market is testing it's all time high.
2. All time high also occurs near a Fibonacci Extension level of 76.4%
3. MACD indicator is starting to reverse from it's resistance where market reversed in the past. Moreover, we are starting to see divergence forming
4. The great correction of 2018 tested and reacted right above it's 200 period EMA. Now, the same 200 period EMA is also approaching a key Fibonacci Retracement level of 61.8% at around the 2590 region.
I explain in greater detail on my blog. Feel free to reach out to me!
thelaughingchartist.wordpress.com
Cheers.
EURUSD Longs Inbound #2Hello. In our last idea, we managed to grab 30 pips. Today, we are aiming for 6 pips. Yes, I know, its not much but its a useful, long term strategy that I use for my trading account. Its better than blowing it all away, no?
Buying at 1.11556 and closing on 1.11620
