Get started

Forex-trading

EUR/USD resumes lowsAfter bouncing off the trend line that has been in place since October 2023, around 1.0760, the selling seems to have resumed in the EUR/USD today. Price has found resistance right off the 1.0835-40 region. This area has provided some support at the back end of last week, before giving way earlier this week. Once support, it has turned into resistance. From here, the EUR/USD could revisit the trend line and the August low of 1.0777, with the subsequent bearish target being around 1.0700. The dollar's strong rally in recent weeks and the simultaneous climb in bond yields are clear headwinds for the EUR/USD. Next week is a busy one for the economic calendar with lots of US economic data, and lots of major company earnings all to come ahead of the November 5 US Presidential election in the following week. It is unlikely that the dollar will sell-off ahead of the election, meaning the pressure is likely to remain on the EUR/USD in the week ahead. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
1
GBP/USD: Will Demand Zones Trigger the Next Bullish Rally?The GBP/USD pair showed some strength on Thursday, advancing to open the Friday London session at 1.2978 as of the time of writing. Despite the recent uptick, the pair’s near-term outlook remains uncertain, as traders assess various market dynamics and potential demand levels that could drive future price action. Technical Overview: Mixed Sentiment and COT Report Analysis From a technical standpoint, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates an interesting divergence between retail traders and institutional investors. Retail traders have generally adopted a bearish stance, while "smart money" is beginning to build bullish positions, hinting at a potential shift in market sentiment. This kind of divergence often acts as a precursor to a trend reversal, but timing is critical. Adding to this potential bullish sentiment is our Forecaster, which currently suggests a possible start of a bullish season for the British Pound. However, our technical analysis suggests that the price has not yet reached a significant demand area to trigger a strong buying opportunity. As it stands, the recent bullish push may be short-lived, as the GBP/USD appears poised for a bearish correction. This pullback could be necessary for the pair to establish a firmer demand base before initiating a more sustainable bullish rally aligned with seasonal patterns. US Dollar Outlook: Trump’s Impact on Market Dynamics Meanwhile, the outlook for the US Dollar remains largely positive, fueled by growing expectations of a potential Donald Trump victory in the upcoming US presidential election on November 5. Traders are anticipating the return of his aggressive economic policies, which are likely to include higher tariffs and lower taxes—measures historically seen as supportive of the US Dollar. However, the potential impact of a Trump administration could be negative for the currencies of major US trading partners, such as the British Pound. As traders price in this scenario, the US Dollar may strengthen further, adding additional bearish pressure on the GBP/USD pair in the short term. Current Strategy: Awaiting Key Demand Levels Given the current technical and fundamental setup, we are maintaining a cautious approach. While the recent price action and the COT data suggest a potential bullish shift for the GBP/USD, our strategy is to wait for the price to reach a key demand area before considering any long positions. This approach aims to minimize downside risk and capitalize on a more confirmed trend reversal. For now, we are on the sidelines, closely monitoring price movements and upcoming economic data releases that could influence market sentiment. Should the pair dip further into a demand zone, it could present an attractive opportunity for a long setup, aligned with both smart money positioning and seasonal trends. Conclusion The GBP/USD shows signs of a potential bullish season on the horizon, but with the price currently failing to reach strong demand levels, a pullback appears likely. Meanwhile, the US Dollar's strength, driven by speculation of Trump’s possible return to the White House, continues to weigh on the pair. For now, our strategy remains patient and data-driven, with a focus on finding the right demand level to initiate a bullish position. As always, staying disciplined and responsive to market shifts will be key in navigating the upcoming volatility. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
Gold Price Hits New All-Time High Near $2,757 - Have a Look NextGold has once again proven its status as the ultimate safe-haven asset, recently reaching an all-time high just shy of the $2,757 mark. This surge comes amid rising geopolitical tensions and increasing expectations for further rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Despite a rise in US Treasury yields, the yellow metal's upward momentum remains strong as investors flock to it during times of uncertainty, highlighting its enduring appeal as a store of value. Factors Behind Gold’s Historic Surge 1. Geopolitical Tensions Global geopolitical risks have escalated recently, leading to a rush toward safe-haven assets like gold. Heightened conflicts in the Middle East and lingering tensions in Eastern Europe have fueled fears of broader market instability. Gold, historically seen as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty, has been one of the primary beneficiaries as investors seek to protect their portfolios. 2. Expectations of Further Fed Rate Cuts Market sentiment is increasingly tilting toward additional rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The anticipation of lower interest rates typically supports gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. With economic data pointing to slower growth and possible deflationary pressures, the Fed may be inclined to continue its dovish stance, further boosting gold’s appeal. 3. US Treasury Yields and Safe-Haven Demand Even as US Treasury yields have risen, signaling expectations of a stronger US economy, gold's ascent has not been hindered. This decoupling suggests that other factors, like risk aversion and safe-haven demand, are currently driving the metal’s price. Growing fears of a potential Trump presidency in 2024 have added an extra layer of uncertainty, prompting investors to seek the stability that gold provides. Technical Analysis: Is a Retracement on the Horizon? From a technical standpoint, the recent surge in gold prices suggests that the metal may be poised for a near-term pullback. Here’s why: Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Analysis: According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bullish on gold, a potential contrarian indicator that often precedes a short-term price reversal. Meanwhile, the so-called "smart money" appears to be scaling back on long positions, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment. Seasonal Forecast: Seasonality patterns indicate that gold might be approaching a reversal phase. Historically, gold has shown a tendency to retrace after significant rallies, especially when retail sentiment becomes overly bullish. This seasonal forecast aligns with technical signals that suggest a possible correction. Potential Retracement Levels: If gold begins to retrace from current levels, key support zones to watch would include $2,700 and $2,650, where previous resistance levels could now act as support. Traders should keep a tight stop-loss to protect against potential downside risks, especially given the ongoing volatility in global markets. Trading Strategy: Cautious Optimism with a Tight Stop-Loss While the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and monetary easing expectations, short-term traders should exercise caution. With the potential for a near-term pullback, the ideal strategy may involve waiting for a retracement to key support levels before considering new long positions. Risk Management: Given the current elevated price levels, it’s crucial to maintain a tight stop-loss to manage potential downside risk. Potential Reentry: If a retracement occurs, investors could look for signs of stabilization around the $2,650–$2,700 range before reentering the market. Final Thoughts: A Bullish Long-Term Outlook with Short-Term Caution Gold’s recent surge to near $2,750 highlights its role as a global safe haven amidst uncertainty. However, with retail sentiment leaning heavily bullish and the possibility of a technical correction looming, traders should remain cautious in the short term. Despite the potential for a pullback, gold’s long-term fundamentals remain intact, driven by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and overall global economic uncertainty. As always, a balanced approach, considering both the fundamental and technical factors, will be essential to navigating the evolving landscape of gold trading. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Pound Faces Key Test Ahead BoE Governor Bailey’s SpeechToday, all eyes will be on Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, who is set to speak at an event organized by the Institute of International Finance later in the day. Bailey’s remarks could prove pivotal for the Pound Sterling (GBP), especially as the market remains sensitive to signals regarding the BoE’s stance on monetary policy. Potential Impact of Bailey’s Speech If Bailey adopts a dovish tone by highlighting ongoing progress in reducing inflation and does not counter market expectations for further rate cuts this year, the Pound could face immediate selling pressure. Here’s what to watch for: Dovish Remarks: If Bailey acknowledges progress in disinflation and hints at more accommodative monetary policy, it could reinforce expectations of further rate cuts, leading to a drop in GBP. Hawkish Pushback: On the other hand, if Bailey suggests that the BoE is still vigilant about inflation risks and signals a less aggressive approach toward rate cuts, the Pound could find some support. Technical Analysis: GBP/USD Eyes Lower Demand Zones The GBP/USD pair remains under selling pressure, with our bias still tilted to the downside, consistent with our previous forecast. From a technical standpoint, the chart now features an additional mid-level demand area, where the Pound might find temporary support. Here’s how the setup is shaping up: Current Demand Zones: We have added an intermediate demand area in anticipation of a possible short-term reaction in the Pound. This zone could act as a buffer, offering a potential retracement opportunity before a possible continuation of the bearish trend. COT Report Insights: According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain predominantly bearish on the Pound, while institutional investors, often referred to as “smart money,” are beginning to accumulate long positions. This divergence suggests that while the broader sentiment remains bearish, there is emerging buying interest from major players, hinting at a potential reversal. DXY Overbought Condition: The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains in overbought territory, suggesting that its bullish momentum could be nearing exhaustion. This aligns with our outlook for a possible GBP retracement if the DXY experiences a pullback. Bearish Bias Maintained: Despite the potential for a short-term bounce, our overall bias remains bearish for GBP/USD. We expect the pair to continue sliding toward the lower demand area, where we will look for a more defined reversal pattern to consider a long entry. Trading Strategy: Waiting for a Long Entry Setup Given the current scenario, we maintain a bearish outlook for GBP/USD but will be closely watching the price action near the identified demand areas. Here’s our strategy: Current Position: No active positions, but we remain cautious about potential short-term volatility surrounding Bailey’s speech. Entry Plan: Should the price reach the lower demand area, we will look for a bullish reversal pattern to confirm a possible long entry. Stop Loss: Set a tight stop loss below the demand area to manage risk effectively. Target: Aim for a near-term rebound toward the intermediate resistance levels if a bullish setup materializes. Final Thoughts: Potential for Short-Term Volatility With Bailey’s speech potentially influencing the short-term direction of GBP, traders should be prepared for volatility. If the BoE Governor strikes a dovish tone, it could fuel further selling pressure on the Pound, aligning with our bearish bias. However, the overbought condition of the DXY and the building long positions by institutional traders suggest that a rebound could be on the horizon, particularly near the lower demand area. As always, it is crucial to exercise patience and wait for clear signals before entering trades, especially in a market driven by central bank communication and evolving sentiment. Stay alert for any surprises from Bailey’s speech and be ready to adapt to changing market dynamics. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Extends Decline Amid USD Strength and Weak Eurozone DataThe EUR/USD pair continues its downward trajectory, trading near fresh multi-week lows around the 1.0769 mark during Wednesday’s mid-European session. This decline reflects the ongoing strength of the US Dollar, fueled by a gloomy market sentiment and growing concerns surrounding the upcoming US Presidential election. Meanwhile, the Euro faces downward pressure due to lackluster local macroeconomic indicators, suggesting that the Eurozone's economic challenges persist into the final quarter of the year. Factors Driving the EUR/USD Decline 1. US Dollar Strength The US Dollar remains dominant, driven by risk aversion as investors seek safe-haven assets amidst increasing political uncertainty in the US. The potential impact of the presidential election has added to market jitters, with investors favoring the Greenback for its perceived stability. Additionally, strong US economic data has reinforced the USD's bullish sentiment, suggesting that the US economy continues to outperform its European counterpart. This divergence adds further pressure on the Euro and pushes the EUR/USD lower. 2. Weak Eurozone Macro Data The Euro struggles to gain traction, weighed down by recent disappointing economic figures from the Eurozone. The latest data indicates ongoing challenges in manufacturing and consumer sentiment, suggesting that the region's economic recovery may be faltering. Persistent economic sluggishness in major Eurozone economies, like Germany and France, has dampened confidence in the Euro, as investors remain cautious about the currency's short-term prospects. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Approaches Key Demand Zone As anticipated in our previous forecast, the EUR/USD has bypassed an intermediate demand zone and is now approaching a more robust support area at the lower level. Here are the key factors at play: Commitment of Traders (COT) Report: According to the latest COT report, retail traders remain heavily bearish on the Euro, while institutional investors (often referred to as “smart money”) have begun to move in the opposite direction, accumulating long positions. This shift in positioning hints at a potential turnaround as the EUR/USD nears significant demand levels. DXY Overbought Condition: The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, is currently in overbought territory. This condition suggests that the USD rally could be losing steam, potentially paving the way for a EUR/USD rebound. The technical overextension of the DXY aligns with the prospect of a retracement, providing additional support for the Euro at the upcoming demand area. Buy Limit Setup: With the EUR/USD nearing a critical demand zone, we are considering placing a buy limit order. This approach aims to capitalize on a potential reversal at the lower demand area, which is supported by both technical indicators and the shifting COT report dynamics. Trading Strategy: Buy Limit on Demand Area Given the current conditions, a buy limit order near the next demand area presents a favorable risk-reward setup. Here’s how we’re approaching this potential trade: Entry: Set a buy limit order just above the upcoming demand zone, targeting a potential rebound in the EUR/USD pair. Stop Loss: Place a tight stop loss below the demand area to manage risk in case of a continued slide. Target: Aim for a near-term bounce back toward resistance levels, aligning with potential DXY weakness and institutional positioning. Final Thoughts: Cautious Optimism for a EUR/USD Rebound While the EUR/USD remains under pressure due to the prevailing USD strength and weak Eurozone data, technical factors and shifting market positioning suggest a potential short-term reversal. As the pair approaches a critical demand zone, a carefully placed buy limit order could offer a promising entry opportunity. With political uncertainty in the US and a potentially overbought USD, traders should monitor upcoming data releases and market sentiment closely, as these factors could influence the timing and magnitude of a possible EUR/USD bounce. As always, risk management is crucial, especially in a volatile environment shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
NZDUSD: New Low After Breakout 🇳🇿🇺🇸 Quick update for NZDUSD: the pair has recently violated a key daily horizontal support. After a breakout, the market nicely retested the broken structure and started to fall from that. With the yesterday's bearish movement, the price managed to set a new Lower Low. It is an important sign of strength of the sellers. I believe that the pair has a good potential to drop even lower. Next support - 0.599 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1
TRIANGLE PATTERNS 101The triangle pattern is one of the most common yet least reliable formations in trading. It occurs during periods of price consolidation or reversals, representing a narrowing trading range defined by two converging trend lines. For a trendline to be established, at least two touches are required. Consequently, a complete triangle typically consists of a minimum of four touches—two for each trendline. However, in practice, triangles tend to be more reliable when there are three or more touches on each line. In essence, the greater the number of touches, the stronger the lines become. The more frequently the price interacts with these lines, the higher the likelihood that they will serve as significant support and resistance zones, thereby resulting in a more powerful breakout. There are two main types of triangles: symmetrical and ascending/descending. Let's explore both of these patterns in more detail. 📍 Symmetrical Triangles A symmetrical triangle is formed by two or more trends combined with price movements, characterized by each successive high being lower and each low being higher than the previous ones. Unlike an extension, where trend lines diverge, the lines connecting the peaks and troughs in a symmetrical triangle converge. These triangular patterns are often referred to as “springs” because, as they develop, price fluctuations tend to calm down and trading volumes decrease. When the triangle is finally broken, the price can shoot out sharply—much like a tightly compressed spring releasing its tension. This breakdown occurs as the price breaks through the triangle with increased momentum. The essence of the symmetrical triangle lies in its ability to balance the interests of buyers and sellers during its formation. When a breakout occurs, trading volume typically surges, signaling that one side has gained the upper hand in terms of price direction. While most patterns provide fairly clear indicators of potential breakout directions, the symmetrical triangle encourages a bit of speculation. The prevailing trend remains dominant until it is definitively proven otherwise, leading to the assumption that the breakout will likely align with the main trend. Hints of a reversal — a breakout in the opposite direction might emerge if the price moves too far in either direction. Additionally, it's prudent to observe other assets; if they are breaking in a new direction, it could signal a potential shift. Generally, a reversal is more probable if the symmetrical triangle forms after a strong trend and remains intact for an extended period. However, in the absence of these signs, the default assumption should be that the primary trend will continue. 📍 The Psychology Behind Triangles in Trading A triangle formation in trading represents an escalating battle between buyers and sellers. It begins with a strong price movement on the left side of the pattern, reflecting volatility and uncertainty in both camps. As the price climbs to the apex of the triangle, buyers initially lose their enthusiasm while sellers start to take action. Subsequently, the price retracts, attracting those who missed out on the earlier surge and are determined to capitalize on this opportunity. At this juncture, sellers grow weary, and the price begins to rise again, though not as dramatically. This moderate increase confuses buyers once more. Potential sellers, who may have regretted their missed opportunity to sell at higher prices, begin to set aside their greed and are willing to sell at lower levels. Ultimately, the price falls once again, bringing in new buyers. However, with each cycle, the number of participants dwindles, leading to increasingly subdued price reactions. The initial excitement fades, and market participants become more cautious, waiting for stability and a normal balance to be established. As the triangle progresses, the boundaries between buyers and sellers draw closer, as neither side can assert its dominance. Typically, when the price stalls at the top of the triangle, even a slight imbalance in supply and demand can trigger a significant price movement. In summary: The more touchpoints there are within a triangle, the more substantial the price movement is likely to be after a breakout. A strong indicator of breakout strength is the contrast between decreased volume during the triangle's compression and a sudden surge in volume upon breakout. The greater this difference, the more decisive the outcome and the stronger the trading signal. 📍 Identify The Price Target For The Triangle Breakout To identify where the price might move after a triangle breakout, there is a traditional method you can use. First, draw a line parallel to the upper trendline, starting from the base of the triangle. This reference line will help identify the target zone the price is expected to reach, providing insight into potential future movements. When analyzing a symmetrical triangle, the same approach applies. You can also apply this method at the lower trend line of the formation. This technique is versatile and can be useful in various consolidation patterns as well. In the second example, you would measure the distance between the peak of the triangle and the subsequent low. This distance can then be projected from the breakout point to estimate the price's likely direction and target. By using these methods, we can gain a clearer understanding of potential price movements following a triangle breakout. 📍 Turning a Symmetrical Triangle into a Head and Shoulders Pattern Triangles, particularly symmetrical triangles, are often viewed as less reliable price patterns in technical analysis. This is primarily due to their tendency to evolve into different formations entirely, making them challenging to interpret. For instance, what starts as a symmetrical triangle can eventually transform into a head and shoulders pattern, which may lead to a misleading breakout that doesn’t accurately predict subsequent price movements. In a scenario where a triangle breakout appears promising, the price may undergo another movement that creates the contours of a sloping head and shoulders pattern. This transformation represents a significant shift in market sentiment and can lead to false expectations regarding future price behavior. Therefore, traders must be cautious and aware of this possibility, as it highlights the unpredictable nature of triangle patterns. To mitigate the risk of being caught off guard by such deceptive formations, it's beneficial to apply a filtering technique. Focus on patterns where the price has interacted with the trendlines—either support or resistance—two or more times. More touches or approaches reinforce the validity of the trendlines, lending them greater significance as points of support or resistance. Consequently, when a breakout occurs from a well-established triangle, it is more likely to be strong and reliable. 📍 Ascending and Descending Triangles A symmetrical triangle alone does not indicate the direction of a potential breakout, whereas an ascending or descending triangle does, due to the presence of sloping support and resistance lines. As is the case with most patterns, a breakout from a triangle is typically followed by a pullback. If you missed the initial breakout, this pullback often presents a second opportunity to enter the trade, usually under calmer market conditions. If a pullback trendline can be identified, it enhances the breakout line as a favorable entry zone, reinforcing the validity of the breakout that has already occurred. 📍 Transforming Ascending and Descending Triangles into Rectangles One challenge with these patterns is that many rectangles can initially appear similar to ascending and descending triangles. Consequently, it's important to exercise caution when analyzing these formations. 📍 When Ascending and Descending Triangles Fail We’ve already observed that ascending and descending triangles can sometimes evolve into rectangles. Typically, there are two scenarios where this failure can occur. The first scenario arises when the price breaks above the horizontal trendline, only to subsequently return and fall back through it. In the case of a false upward breakout, a closely situated false peak forms, allowing us to place a tight stop just below the trendline. The second situation occurs when a descending triangle fails due to the breaking of the rising or falling trendline before the horizontal trendline is broken. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
1
EUR/USD Pauses After Four-Day Slide as USD Rally EasesThe EUR/USD pair takes a breather on Friday, following a prolonged four-day losing streak, as the US Dollar's (USD) strong rally shows signs of slowing. The Euro attempts to stabilize after a tough week, with the pair hovering slightly higher, supported by a momentary pause in the USD’s upward momentum. Despite this pause, the outlook for the Greenback remains positive, particularly after Thursday’s encouraging US economic data, which continues to reinforce the idea of a resilient American economy. USD Momentum Eases After Strong Economic Data The US Dollar has experienced a robust run in recent weeks, driven by a strong economy and expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. However, the rally took a pause on Friday, despite the release of better-than-expected US economic data. September’s Retail Sales increased by 0.4%, surpassing market forecasts, while the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 came in lower than anticipated at 241,000, compared to an expected 260,000. These figures underscored the strength of the US labor market and consumer spending, further bolstering the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining elevated interest rates. Even though the positive data continues to favor the USD, the currency’s upward trajectory has temporarily slowed, allowing the EUR/USD pair to consolidate after a sharp decline earlier in the week. This pause in the Greenback's rally offers the Euro some relief, though the broader trend remains USD-favorable in the near term. Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Prepares for a Potential Rebound From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is showing early signs of a potential bullish rebound. The pair has bounced from a critical demand area, suggesting that buying interest is emerging at these lower price levels. Furthermore, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a significant divergence between retail and institutional sentiment. While retail traders remain predominantly bearish, large institutional investors—commonly referred to as "smart money"—have begun to increase their long positions on the Euro. This discrepancy in positioning could signal a reversal in market direction, potentially favoring the Euro in the near term. Seasonality patterns also support a possible recovery in the EUR/USD, as historical data suggests that the Euro tends to perform well during this period of the year. Taken together, the technical indicators and seasonal trends point toward a possible bullish setup, where traders might look to enter long positions, anticipating further upside movement. Conclusion: EUR/USD Seeks Stability as USD Rally Temporarily Stalls The EUR/USD pair has found some much-needed support after several days of losses, as the relentless USD rally slows down following strong US economic data. Despite the positive fundamentals supporting the Greenback, technical indicators hint that the Euro may be on the verge of a recovery. The rebound from key demand levels, coupled with institutional long positioning and supportive seasonality, suggests that the EUR/USD could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders should remain vigilant, as the pair’s next move will depend on evolving market conditions and the upcoming data releases that could further influence the direction of both currencies. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
4
NZD/CAD Tests Key Demand Area with Bullish Signs EmergingIn the last three days, the NZD/CAD pair has retested a crucial demand area, showing a clear rejection, which indicates potential buying interest at this level. Supporting this outlook, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders continue to hold predominantly short positions, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are steadily increasing their exposure to the pair. Additionally, though less significant, the price has reacted to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the swing low, adding another technical layer to the current scenario. Large speculators have already shifted to a bullish stance, signaling growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Canadian Dollar (CAD). This shift in market sentiment could pave the way for a potential long setup, especially as seasonal trends indicate further upside potential for the NZD/CAD pair. From a technical perspective, the combination of the demand zone rejection and the bullish movement in institutional positioning suggests the possibility of an upward move. Traders will be closely observing the price action over the coming days for signs of a breakout, which could provide an opportunity to enter long positions in line with the growing bullish sentiment surrounding NZD/CAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
NZD/SGD Tests and Rejects Key Demand Area, Bullish Sentiment.Over the past three days, the NZD/SGD pair has retested a previous demand area and shown a clear rejection, signaling potential buying interest at this level. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report adds weight to this scenario, revealing that retail traders remain predominantly short, while "Smart Money"—institutional investors—are beginning to edge higher in their positioning. Large speculators have already turned bullish, reflecting a growing confidence in the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) relative to the Singapore Dollar (SGD). This shift in sentiment could set the stage for a possible long setup, particularly as seasonal trends suggest further upside potential for NZD/SGD. From a technical perspective, the rejection of the demand zone, combined with the bullish shift in institutional positioning, points to a potential upward move. Traders will be closely monitoring price action in the coming days for confirmation of a breakout, which could present an opportunity to enter long positions in alignment with the emerging bullish sentiment. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/SGD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
NZD/USD Attracts Modest Buying on Friday Amid USD WeaknessThe NZD/USD pair has attracted some buying interest for the second consecutive day on Friday, driven by a modest weakening of the US Dollar (USD). However, the upside momentum lacks strong bullish conviction as the pair continues to hover around the 0.6071 level, close to the one-month low touched earlier this week. Despite the rebound, market sentiment surrounding the pair remains cautious, with traders awaiting further cues from both global economic developments and key technical indicators. US Dollar Weakness Offers Relief The primary driver behind the modest gains in NZD/USD has been the slight pullback in the US Dollar. The greenback has recently shown signs of weakening after a strong rally in previous weeks, largely supported by robust US economic data and hawkish expectations around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The recent downtick in the USD has provided some breathing room for risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand Dollar, allowing for a temporary recovery in the pair. Technical Outlook: Demand Zone Holds Firm From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD pair appears to have rejected a significant demand zone, suggesting that there is support for the pair at current levels. This demand area has seen increased buying interest, particularly as retail traders remain extremely short on the pair. In contrast, smart money – typically institutional investors with deeper market insights – has started to build long positions, signaling a potential shift in market sentiment. The rejection of the demand zone and the presence of long positions from smart money traders suggest that the NZD/USD pair could be poised for further gains. This technical setup aligns with the broader seasonality patterns that indicate a potential uptrend in the coming weeks. Seasonality and Market Sentiment: Bullish Signs Ahead? Seasonality data, which tracks historical patterns in currency movements, shows a potential uptrend for the NZD/USD pair. This is supported by the current market positioning, where retail traders are overwhelmingly short, creating a contrarian signal for a potential rally. Smart money's shift towards building long positions adds weight to the argument that the pair may be headed for a sustained move higher. Given these factors, we have decided to open a long position on NZD/USD, taking advantage of the technical setup, smart money movements, and favorable seasonality trends. While the overall market sentiment remains cautious, the combination of these signals offers a compelling case for a potential bullish move in the near term. Conclusion: A Cautious Bullish Outlook While the NZD/USD pair has attracted modest buying on the back of USD weakness, the bullish conviction remains limited for now. However, the rejection of a key demand area, coupled with the increasing long positions from smart money and favorable seasonality patterns, suggests that the pair could see further upside in the days ahead. As always, traders should remain cautious and monitor upcoming economic data releases and market developments that could influence the pair's direction. Nonetheless, the technical and fundamental setup currently points to a potential opportunity for upside gains, and we are positioned accordingly with a long trade. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
NZD/USD Rebounds, But Caution Remains Ahead of US Economic DataThe NZD/USD pair rebounded today from a key demand area, but caution remains among traders as critical US economic data looms. The upcoming reports for USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly affecting both EUR/USD and NZD/USD. These data points are crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected results could further support the US Dollar (USD), applying downward pressure on other currencies like the euro and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). China's Economic Data in Focus for NZD In addition to US developments, market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday. The upcoming GDP and Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored, especially after the recent disappointment in China’s CPI and PPI numbers. Weak results from China could have negative implications for the NZD, given New Zealand’s heavy reliance on trade with China. The New Zealand Dollar has faced additional challenges, as China's recently announced fiscal stimulus measures have failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remain uncertain about the scale and impact of the stimulus package, further weighing on the outlook for the NZD. USD Strength and Federal Reserve Outlook Meanwhile, the US Dollar has found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered market expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with little to no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This has kept the USD resilient, further limiting the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair. Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, while the NZD/USD has seen a rebound, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain bearish on the pair, whereas smart money has started increasing their positions. In addition, our forecast suggests a potential shift toward a bullish seasonality for the NZD, though market conditions remain uncertain. Given the importance of today’s US economic data, we are adopting a patient approach, waiting for the news release before considering any entries. Stronger-than-expected US figures could dampen the outlook for the NZD, while weaker data may present opportunities for the NZD to regain strength. In conclusion, while there are signs of a potential bullish trend emerging for the NZD/USD, the combination of ongoing USD strength and upcoming key economic releases from both the US and China makes it necessary to remain cautious in the near term. Patience will be key as we await further developments in the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Extends Decline Near 1.0850 Ahead of Key Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair extended its decline during the early Asian session on Thursday, hovering around the 1.0850 mark. The continued strength of the US Dollar (USD) has added selling pressure on the euro, as investors anticipate critical developments in both Europe and the United States. Notably, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce another interest rate cut during its monetary policy meeting today, which will play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. ECB Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations The ECB meeting is a focal point for the market, with investors widely expecting another rate cut as the central bank attempts to stimulate the sluggish Eurozone economy. The ongoing monetary easing measures aim to address inflationary concerns and support economic growth in the region. A further reduction in interest rates would likely put additional pressure on the euro, especially against a strengthening dollar. Traders will be closely watching the tone of the ECB’s announcements, looking for any clues regarding future policy direction, which could set the stage for increased volatility in EUR/USD. US Economic Data in Focus In addition to the ECB's decision, the market’s attention will shift to the release of key economic data from the US later today. The USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims reports are set to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD. These reports are crucial in assessing the overall health of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected figures could further bolster the USD, applying additional downward pressure on the euro. Retail sales data will provide insight into consumer spending patterns, a key driver of US economic growth, while unemployment claims will shed light on labor market conditions. Should the data come in stronger than anticipated, it may reinforce expectations of a resilient US economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. Conversely, weaker data could weigh on the dollar and offer a temporary reprieve for EUR/USD. Technical Outlook: Demand Zones in Focus From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is currently reacting to a previously identified demand area. While the pair has experienced selling pressure, the price could see a bullish reaction if the upcoming US data or the ECB meeting provide supportive conditions for the euro. In case of a positive outcome for the EUR after the news releases, we may consider opening a long position. However, the best entry point for a long trade remains within the lower demand zone, which offers stronger support and a more favorable risk-reward setup. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a notable shift in market positioning. Retail traders have been increasing their short positions on the euro, while smart money (large institutional investors) has moved long on the currency. This positioning dynamic suggests the possibility of a reversal, as smart money often takes contrarian positions against retail traders. With the data releases and central bank decisions looming, today could present a long setup, especially if the market interprets the news favorably for the euro. Conclusion The EUR/USD continues to trade under pressure, driven by the strength of the USD and expectations surrounding the ECB’s upcoming monetary policy decision. As the day unfolds, the release of critical US economic data will further shape the pair’s direction, potentially adding volatility and creating opportunities for traders. While the euro remains under pressure, technical and positioning factors indicate that a bullish setup could emerge, particularly if the euro finds support in the lower demand zones or if the news flow turns in its favor. Traders are advised to exercise caution and patience, keeping a close eye on the upcoming data releases and market reactions before entering any positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD📌 Trading Instrument: EUR/USD 🔶 Bullish Breakout with Strong Potential 🔶 📝 Market Overview: After 16 days of consolidation, EUR/USD has finally broken out of the diagonal resistance, suggesting a bullish move ahead. I took a position just before the breakout, assessing the potential reward as extremely favorable compared to the risk. The trade has a remarkable Risk-Reward Ratio of 17.5:1, making it highly attractive even with a low initial risk. The breakout is supported by triple bullish divergences, signaling a strong potential for upward momentum. Moreover, the market is currently trading near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical point often signaling reversals. Additionally, we have a solid support zone just below, which has held firm for 750 days. The absence of any significant breakdown from this level strengthens the bullish case. If this support holds, it will continue to fuel the upward momentum. However, any breakdown here could signal a notable trend reversal, so I'm closely monitoring the price action. Given these technical signals, I opted for a day trade with the potential to extend it through the week, depending on price movement and relevant news flow. 🎯 Trade Details: Stop Loss (SL): Today’s low Take Profit (TP): 1.09528 This trade leverages several technical signals: Bullish divergence across multiple timeframes. Holding near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level. The strong support that has not broken for 750 days. The lack of a breakdown further solidifies the bullish outlook, and if the breakout gains momentum, this could be a highly profitable setup. 🚨 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly. Markets are highly volatile, and you should only invest money you are prepared to lose.
by RhinoAkaBear
EUR/USD Extends Losses on Turnaround Tuesday as USD StrengthensAs anticipated in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair extended its losses on Turnaround Tuesday, breaking through a weak demand area that had little support from underlying fundamentals. The euro continued to slide as the US Dollar (USD) maintained its upward momentum, driven by a combination of economic data and market sentiment. US Dollar Strength Backed by FOMC Minutes The ongoing strength of the USD has been bolstered by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the September 18 meeting. The minutes revealed that a "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers supported easing monetary policy with a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, they refrained from setting a specific timeline for future cuts, leaving room for further policy adjustments based on upcoming economic data. The hawkish undertone of the FOMC's position has given the USD additional support in recent weeks, fueling its rally against major currencies, including the EUR. FedWatch Tool Highlights Market Expectations According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting. This high probability reflects growing expectations of further monetary easing, which has helped sustain the greenback’s strength. Upcoming US Economic Data to Watch Looking ahead, the market's focus will shift to Thursday, when the US releases key economic data, including USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD, as they will offer insights into the strength of the US economy and provide further direction for the USD. Traders will closely watch these releases to gauge the health of the US economy and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions. Strong retail sales data and lower unemployment claims could strengthen the USD further, while weaker-than-expected figures may signal the need for more aggressive monetary easing. Market Positioning and Technical Outlook From a market positioning standpoint, recent data shows a shift in sentiment among speculators and commercial traders. Speculators have reduced their net long positions in the EUR, indicating decreased confidence in the euro’s near-term prospects. Conversely, commercial traders have increased their net long positions, suggesting that some institutional investors believe the EUR may be undervalued at current levels. From a technical perspective, we are closely monitoring two key demand areas on the chart. The price is nearing these zones, and we are waiting to see how the market reacts before making any decisions about entering long positions. If the price finds support at one of these demand areas, it could signal a potential reversal or retracement. However, as always, patience is crucial in waiting for confirmation before executing any trades. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the USD continues to dominate, fueled by expectations of further monetary easing and strong economic data. While the pair is approaching key demand areas, traders should exercise caution and wait for clearer signals before entering long positions. With Thursday's US data releases on the horizon, the markets are set for increased volatility, and these reports will likely shape the next phase of EUR/USD's direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1