Get started

Forex-trading

UK Housing Market Lifts GBP/USD Amid Social UnrestGBPUSD – technical overview Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2500. R2 1.2861 – 12 June high – Strong R1 1.2800 – Figure – Medium S1 1.2673 – 6 August low – Medium S2 1.2613 – 27 June low – Strong GBPUSD – fundamental overview The Pound was still struggling on Wednesday from all the social unrest in the UK. However, we did see some demand on the back of UK house prices rising the most since January. Key standouts on Thursday’s calendar come from US initial jobless claims, wholesale inventories, and some Fed speak. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
JPY Strengthens Amid BoJ Tightening, USD Faces HeadwindsThe Japanese Yen (JPY) exerted downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) during the early European session. Despite the USD's initial attempt to recover value following yesterday's decline, the JPY continued to strengthen due to rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may implement further monetary policy tightening. The BoJ recently raised its short-term rate target by 15 basis points (bps), adjusting it to a range of 0.15%-0.25%. Additionally, the central bank announced plans to reduce its monthly purchases of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) to ¥3 trillion, starting in the first quarter of 2026. These moves have bolstered the JPY, adding to its momentum against the USD. Meanwhile, the upside potential for the USD/JPY pair appears limited as the USD encounters significant headwinds. Expectations are growing for a 50-basis point (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 74.5% probability of this rate cut at the September meeting, a sharp increase from the 11.4% chance reported just a week ago. From a technical perspective, incorporating our Supply and Demand analysis, we missed the initial entry in the Supply area due to a rapid spike that reached our entry point. Nonetheless, we are monitoring for a potential retest of that area for a possible short position. USD/JPY Chart ✅ Please share your thoughts about Japanese Yen Futures in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6J1!
by FOREXN1
1
USDCAD Analysis: Anticipating a New Bullish ImpulseUSDCAD is beginning a new bullish impulse after retesting the previous resistance area, which has now transformed into a strong demand zone. This retest is a crucial technical signal, suggesting that the pair is poised for a potential new upward movement. By examining the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we observe that the positioning of large traders supports a bullish outlook for the USD against the Canadian Dollar. This sentiment is further reinforced by our supply and demand analysis, which highlights the demand zone as a key level where buying interest has emerged, providing a foundation for the price to move higher. Seasonality trends also play a significant role in our analysis. Historically, this period of the year tends to favor a stronger USD against the CAD, adding another layer of confidence to our bullish forecast. The confluence of these factors—the retest of the demand zone, favorable COT positioning, and positive seasonality—strengthens our expectation of a sustained upward movement in USDCAD. We are closely monitoring the price action and are prepared to capitalize on this bullish setup. Should the price continue to rise from the current levels, we anticipate further gains. However, it's essential to remain vigilant and adapt to any market changes that might influence our analysis. Additionally, for a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing this expected bullish trend, please follow our detailed analysis on CAD futures provided below. This in-depth analysis will offer insights into the broader market dynamics affecting the Canadian Dollar and support our long position strategy in USDCAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDCAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Title: Geopolitical Tempest Navigating the EUR/ILS Currency PairThe EUR/ILS exchange rate is a crucial indicator of Israel's economic and geopolitical stability in relation to the Eurozone. Recently, it has been under substantial pressure due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. This dynamic interplay of geopolitical risks and economic factors creates a complex environment for the Israeli shekel (ILS) against the Euro (EUR). Key Points 1. Geopolitical Background: The conflict between Israel and Iran, fueled by nuclear ambitions, proxy wars, and direct military engagements, has deep historical, religious, and political roots. 2. Economic Implications: Investor confidence, economic sanctions, and increased military expenditures are critical factors influencing the ILS. Geopolitical instability can reduce investor confidence, cause capital flight, and strain Israel's fiscal budget. 3. Impact on EUR/ILS Exchange Rate: Geopolitical risks lead to a flight to safety, with investors seeking stable currencies like the Euro. Inflationary pressures from supply chain disruptions and military spending can erode the ILS, while the Bank of Israel's interventions may be limited by persistent tensions. Conclusion The Israel-Iran conflict casts a long shadow over the Israeli economy and the strength of the ILS. As geopolitical tensions persist, the EUR/ILS exchange rate is likely to experience significant volatility. Investors and policymakers must remain vigilant, monitoring developments closely to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities in this uncertain environment.
Long
by signalmastermind
Trading Under Pressure: Building Stress Resistance For SuccessStress in trading is a response of the nervous system triggered by high levels of uncertainty, risk, and the fear of losing money. It often begins with a sense of excitement but can gradually escalate into panic, leading to panic attacks and intense fear. Some individuals thrive under stress, viewing it as a stimulating emotion. They consciously understand that they are not necessarily losing anything, having already accepted the possibility of loss. For these traders, trading is an adventure filled with excitement, impressions, and adrenaline. However, many of them may not be psychologically prepared for the realities of stress, and when it strikes, they can easily lose self-control. 📍 HOW STRESS CAN AFFECT YOUR PERFORMANCE Traders frequently find themselves in situations where quick decision-making and emotional management are crucial for achieving positive outcomes. Stress can create a psychological state that often hampers a person's ability to make logical and sound decisions. ✦ Decreased Concentration and Attention. Elevated stress levels often lead to diminished concentration, resulting in errors caused by overlooking important details or additional factors. ✦ Deterioration of Memory. Under stress, it becomes challenging to recall similar past situations or remember key factors, which can negatively impact decision-making. ✦ Decreased Reaction Speed. Stress can hinder your ability to react swiftly to changing market conditions. This makes strategies like scalping, fundamental trading, and trading on M5-M15 timeframes particularly difficult. ✦ Changes in Emotional State. Stress can trigger a range of emotional reactions, including anxiety, nervousness, irritation, and panic. These feelings can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. ✦ Physical Manifestations. Stress may also result in physical symptoms such as back pain, headaches, and stomach issues. The nervous system is often the first to suffer, with its effects potentially reverberating throughout the entire body. While many individuals experience negative effects from stress, some people demonstrate a unique response in which stress acts as a "sobering" force. For these individuals, a relaxed state may be characterized by laziness, lack of coordination, and a leisurely pace. However, when faced with stressful situations, they often shift into a heightened state of activity. In this altered state, their brains become more agile, allowing them to think more quickly and algorithmically, improving their capacity to respond effectively to challenges. 📍 EFFECTS OF STRESS IN TRADING 🔹 Increased Risk-Taking. Under stress, traders often become more inclined to make high-risk decisions in an effort to recover losses. Unfortunately, this behavior can lead to even greater losses. 🔹 Lack of Self-Control. Stress can impair your self-control, making it challenging to make well-considered decisions. Consequently, you may find yourself taking impulsive actions that deviate from your established trading strategy. 🔹 Closing Profitable Trades Too Early. In a state of anxiety, you might prematurely lock in profits due to a fear of losing them, which can prevent you from maximizing potential gains. 🔹 Holding Losing Trades for Too Long. Stress can hinder your ability to recognize mistakes, leading you to hold onto losing trades longer than necessary instead of cutting your losses. 📍 HOW TO DEAL WITH STRESS IN TRADING ? 1. Planning and Preparation. Creating a detailed trading plan in advance can significantly alleviate stress levels. Having a well-thought-out course of action ready for unexpected situations provides a sense of calm and direction. 2. Risk Management. Establishing a robust risk management system is essential for reducing the anxiety associated with potential losses. Implementing stop-loss orders ensures that your position is at least partially protected, which helps contain the emotional rollercoaster associated with trading. 3. Adhere to Your Daily Regimen. It's crucial to prioritize self-care by getting enough sleep, eating a balanced diet, and engaging in regular exercise. This timeless advice applies universally to all stressful situations and can greatly enhance your resilience. 4. Take Breaks. Avoid the temptation to stay glued to your screen. Taking breaks allows you to relax and recharge. Additionally, it gives your eyes a much-needed rest. 5. Relaxation and Meditation Techniques. Incorporating relaxation and meditation practices into your routine can significantly lower stress levels while improving concentration and emotional well-being. Techniques such as breathing exercises, yoga, and deep relaxation may seem unconventional to some, but many find them effective in managing stress. 6. Support and Communication. Sharing your emotions and challenges with fellow traders can help diffuse tension and provide you with valuable insights and encouragement. Building a network of support is vital. 7. Positive Thinking. Cultivating a positive mindset and fostering confidence in your abilities can significantly reduce stress levels and enhance your trading performance. A constructive attitude can empower you to face challenges with resilience. 📍 CONCLUSION Remember, stress is a natural response of the body, but it can significantly hinder your ability to work effectively and make sound decisions. There are numerous strategies available to manage stress; however, their effectiveness largely depends on your personal perspective, the specific circumstances you face, and your willingness to address the issue. It’s essential to identify and adopt individualized methods that resonate with your unique psychological makeup. By doing so, you can cultivate emotional resilience in challenging situations, enabling you to cope without relying on medication or professional therapy. Taking proactive steps to manage stress is key to maintaining both your trading performance and well-being. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
11
EUR/USD Decline Offers Short-Term Trading OpportunityEUR/USD is experiencing a decline for the second straight day, trading near 1.0880 during the London session on Friday. This drop is primarily driven by a stronger US Dollar (USD), fueled by heightened risk aversion in the market. From a technical perspective, we've identified a supply area on the EUR/USD chart where a price reversal is likely. While there is a more critical upper zone, the current price action is approaching a significant supply area, presenting a potential scalping opportunity. Traders should monitor this level closely, as the current momentum towards this supply area may provide a timely entry point for short-term gains. The convergence of technical resistance and market sentiment sets the stage for a potential bounce, making this a strategic moment for scalping the EUR/USD pair. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision A Reuters survey indicates that most economists anticipate the Bank of England (BOE) reducing interest rates at its August meeting. The poll revealed that over 80% of respondents expect a rate cut. We could see a close decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with a 5-4 split in favor of a rate cut, leaving Governor Andrew Bailey to cast the deciding vote. Market sentiment, however, remains more divided. Although, the investor outlook is gradually aligning with the expectation of a rate reduction with a slight majority predicting that rates will be cut. Over in the US, the nonfarm payrolls report is forecasted to show a decline from 206,000 in June to 175,000 in July. Contrary to this consensus, Bank of America economist Michael Gapen predicts a significant rise in nonfarm payrolls to 225,000 for July, the highest since March. While the July jobs report may not drastically shift the Federal Reserve's policy direction, it will be pivotal in solidifying expectations for a rate cut in September.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/JPY Analysis: Strong Reversal and Bearish Setup OpportunityThe GBP/JPY continues its strong reversal from yesterday after reaching the 208.000 area, where a strong weekly supply zone has been present since July 2008. This significant resistance level has prompted the price to retrace. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders and non-commercial participants are still holding long positions, while commercial traders have shifted their positions to bearish over a month ago. This divergence between retail and commercial traders suggests a potential shift in market sentiment. We are looking to capitalize on this reversal by setting up a bearish trade. Monitoring key levels and market conditions closely will be essential in executing this strategy effectively. As the price begins to retrace, identifying optimal entry points for a short position will be crucial in taking advantage of this bearish setup. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Mind Over Market: The Burden Of Continuous Chart WatchingNovice traders are often swayed by their emotions. Even when equipped with knowledge of technical and fundamental analysis, as well as risk management, individuals are invariably guided by psychological factors. This influence isn't limited to emotional extremes such as greed, excitement, or despair. It also encompasses feelings like curiosity, self-assertion, and the quest for validation of one’s decisions. While these feelings aren't inherently wrong, they do come with certain nuances. One research agency conducted an analysis of a broker's database, choosing to keep the names confidential to avoid advertising. The agency itself noted that the research was intended for private insights rather than a comprehensive analysis. The primary objective was to identify the actions traders tend to take most frequently. The findings revealed that the most predictable action among traders is closing a position. Interestingly, market orders are closed twice as often as limit orders. This suggests that most traders tend to follow market trends and manually close their trades, which may conflict with established risk management principles. This fact has been termed the “Monitoring Effect”. 📍 WHAT IS THE MONITORING EFFECT? The monitoring effect in trading describes a psychological phenomenon where excessive scrutiny of short-term market fluctuations leads to impulsive and often detrimental trading decisions. When a trader spends too much time staring at the chart, this constant observation distorts their perception of market movements. In essence, a trader who continuously monitors the chart may interpret the data differently than someone who examines it after a few hours of absence. This prolonged focus can create a skewed view of the market, resulting in rash choices that might not align with their overall trading strategy. 📍 NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF MONITORING EFFECTS ON TRADERS • Overemphasizing Short-Term Information. Traders may place excessive importance on recent price movements or news events, leading them to make reactionary decisions. For instance, an impulsive urge to close a trade can arise from a fleeting negative signal, such as a false pattern or a false breakout, even if the overall trading strategy remains sound. • False Perception of News. By constantly tracking news and events, traders can overestimate their significance, prompting rash decisions based on short-term fluctuations. This can lead to trades that are not aligned with long-term strategy or analysis. • Frequent Position Changes. The urge to change positions often is exacerbated by constant monitoring. Traders may respond to momentary shifts in market direction, resulting in frequent reversals of positions. This behavior not only increases trading costs due to commissions and spreads but can also lead to overall reduced profitability. A trader may incur losses as they jump in and out of trades based on short-lived movements. • Emotional Stress. Ongoing market observation can heighten emotional stress and lead to fatigue. As traders become more engrossed in monitoring, their ability to think clearly and make rational decisions diminishes. This emotional toll can distort judgment, further complicating the trading process. • Increased Risk Appetite. Prolonged engagement with the market can result in an increased appetite for risk. As traders become accustomed to fluctuations, they may become more willing to take on higher-risk trades, often without a solid foundation in their analysis. This increased risk tolerance can lead to larger potential losses, especially if the market moves against them. To watch the chart or not to watch the chart? The monitoring effect has some positive aspects. Firstly, you train your skills of instant reaction to an event. Secondly, you learn to quickly recognize patterns and find levels. 📍 TIPS TO MANAGE CHART MONITORING 1. Wait After News Releases Avoid Immediate Reaction. It’s crucial to refrain from making quick trades immediately after major news releases due to potential volatility and false spikes. Prices may not reflect fair value during that time, leading to uncertain outcomes. Trade After the Dust Settles. Waiting for 30-60 minutes allows the initial market reaction to stabilize, providing a clearer market direction and reducing the likelihood of entering a trade based on erratic price movements. 2. Develop Psychological Stability Practice Mindfulness. Engage in mindfulness techniques such as meditation or deep breathing exercises to enhance emotional regulation. Set Realistic Expectations. Understand that losses are a part of trading and work on accepting them without letting them influence your emotional state. Simulate Trading. Use demo accounts to practice trading strategies without real financial pressure, keeping emotions in check. 3. Focus on the Trading Process Emphasize Strategy Over Outcomes. Concentrate on executing your trading plan and strategies instead of being fixated on profit and loss. This shift in mindset can reduce stress and enhance performance. Track Your Progress. Regularly review your trades to identify patterns in behavior and decision-making, making adjustments as necessary without getting bogged down by the results of individual trades. 4. Avoid Unrealistic Goals Set Achievable Milestones. Goals should be specific, measurable, and realistic based on your skill level and market conditions. Aim for gradual improvement rather than sudden leaps in performance. Focus on Personal Growth. Compare your progress against your own benchmarks rather than against other traders, which can help foster a healthy mindset. 5. Use and Stick to a Trading Plan Define Your Strategy. Clearly outline entry and exit strategies, risk management rules, and market conditions for trading. A well-structured plan reduces impulsive decisions. Review and Adapt. Regularly review your trading plan to ensure it aligns with market conditions and your evolving trading style. Adjust it as needed, but avoid impulsive changes based on short-term outcomes. To mitigate the effects of constant monitoring, traders are encouraged to develop a clear trading plan that includes well-defined rules for entering and exiting trades. Utilizing automatic stop losses and take-profit orders is essential for effective risk management. Additionally, setting specific time frames for checking trading positions can help avoid the pitfalls of incessantly watching the market. For instance, you might establish a schedule to check in on your trades five minutes after the start of each new hourly candle. The key is to cultivate the discipline to adhere to this schedule and resist the temptation to deviate from it. 📍 CONCLUSION Everything is good in moderation. Long-term trading strategies do not require constant monitoring; instead, a quick five-minute check of the chart every few hours are often sufficient. Utilizing pending orders that align with your risk management guidelines can also enhance your trading approach. Taking breaks after each 1H candle can be beneficial. If there are no clear trading signals, allow yourself to step away from the chart for the duration of one hour. During this time, it's not necessary to search for signals on lower timeframes. Embracing this disciplined approach can help you maintain focus and improve your overall trading performance. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
1
AUDUSD: Bearish Outlook For Next Week 🇦🇺🇺🇸 AUDUSD broke and closed below a key daily structure support. After its violation, the pair started to recover steadily within a rising wedge pattern. Retesting the broken structure, the price formed a double top pattern. After that, the market violated both the neckline of a double top and a trend line of a rising wedge, giving us a strong bearish confirmation. We can expect a bearish movement on Monday. Goals: 0.6537 / 0.652 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
2
USD/JPY: JPY Maintains Upward MomentumThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues its upward momentum against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session, reaching the 152.000 mark yesterday. This strength in the Yen is attributed to traders unwinding carry trades in anticipation of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) policy meeting next week. The upcoming BoJ meeting is highly anticipated, with expectations of an interest rate hike. This speculation has led short-sellers to close their positions, bolstering the JPY. Additionally, the BoJ is expected to announce plans to taper its bond purchases, aiming to scale back its extensive monetary stimulus program. Meanwhile, the US Dollar could find support as recent US PMI data showed a faster expansion in private-sector activity for July. This data highlights the robustness of US economic growth despite high interest rates, giving the Federal Reserve (Fed) more flexibility to maintain its restrictive policy stance if inflation does not ease. Technical analysis suggests that the JPY/USD pair may continue its bearish trend, with potential support levels around 148.160 and further down at the demand zone of 142.210. These areas could provide solid entry points for traders anticipating a USD rebound. Currently, we are not planning any trades but are monitoring the price movements towards these key levels for potential buying opportunities. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1