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AUD/USD Gains Momentum Following RBA Governor's RemarksThe AUD/USD pair is gaining traction after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock indicated on Wednesday that the central bank is prepared to raise interest rates if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not return to the target range of 1%-3%, as reported by NCA NewsWire. This hawkish stance has provided a boost to the Australian Dollar, reflecting increased market confidence in the currency. Technical Analysis Overview From a technical perspective, the price action on Tuesday saw the AUD/USD pair touch and rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, initiating an initial bullish impulse. However, this upward movement was reabsorbed during the day. Today, we are looking to buy on dips, anticipating another bullish impulse. On the H4 chart, a divergence has been observed, reinforcing our bullish bias. This technical indicator suggests that despite some retracement, the overall trend remains positive, and the market may be poised for further gains. Key Factors Influencing AUD/USD 1. RBA Governor's Statement: Michele Bullock's remarks have underscored the RBA's readiness to adjust interest rates to control inflation, providing a strong bullish signal for the AUD. 2. CPI Concerns: The emphasis on the CPI returning to the 1%-3% target range highlights the RBA's commitment to price stability, further influencing market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments. Market Strategy Given the current technical setup and the fundamental backdrop, our strategy involves looking to buy on dips. The rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the observed divergence on the H4 chart support this approach. We anticipate that any pullbacks will provide buying opportunities, with the expectation of a renewed bullish impulse. Conclusion The AUD/USD pair is showing positive momentum following the RBA Governor's comments about potential interest rate hikes if inflation targets are not met. From a technical standpoint, the pair's behavior around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the divergence on the H4 chart support a bullish outlook. As a result, the current market environment presents an opportunity to buy on dips, positioning for another bullish move in the AUD/USD pair.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD: Bearish Setup Anticipated Amid Key Economic DataSince April 17, the USD/CAD pair has been trading within a range, characterized by a pattern of lower highs and lows. Recently, the price bounced from the resistance of the previous high. After the release of the US ISM Services PMI yesterday, the price initially pushed down before stabilizing. Today, the pair is attempting to push higher, but we anticipate a potential new bearish impulse, especially if the upcoming US Unemployment Claims data comes out negative. Key Economic Data and Market Reactions US Economic Data: ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose to a nine-month high in June, initially driving the USD higher. Unemployment Claims: Today's focus will be on the US Unemployment Claims. A negative report could weigh on the USD, reinforcing our bearish outlook for the USD/CAD pair. Canadian Economic Data: Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Cut: The BoC recently delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut. This move was already priced in by the market, but it has set the stage for upcoming economic data to take center stage. Canadian Labor Figures: Traders are also eyeing Friday's Canadian labor figures, though the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on the same day is likely to overshadow Canadian employment data. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair remains within a range, with the price action exhibiting lower highs and lows. Currently, the price is testing resistance levels formed by previous highs. Despite today's attempt to move higher, the overall technical setup suggests a bearish bias, particularly if key data releases support this outlook. The price has bounced off resistance from previous highs, indicating a struggle to break higher. The lower highs and lows pattern indicates a bearish trend within the range. Potential Bearish Impulse : Given the negative sentiment expected from the upcoming US Unemployment Claims data, a bearish impulse is likely. Given the current technical setup and the fundamental backdrop, our strategy involves looking for a bearish setup. The combination of resistance testing, bearish price patterns, and potential negative economic data from the US supports this approach.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Inflation vs. Fed Decision: What's Driving Markets Next Week? While closely related, US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can impact the market with varying intensity. The Fed aims to avoid surprising the market, whereas inflation is unpredictable. Consequently, the market is confident that the Fed will neither hike nor cut rates at the upcoming meeting. However, inflation forecasts are often inaccurate. According to TradingEconomics, US inflation year-over-year is forecast to have stalled at 3.4%. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index remained steady at 2.8% in April for the second month in a row. This stability suggests that inflation may persist longer than expected, raising doubts about how soon the Fed can cut interest rates. Traders currently see a 68% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September. Interestingly, today the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in borrowing rates for the eurozone, the first decrease since 2019. The ECB’s main refinancing rate is now 4.25%, down from a record high of 4.50%. With this rate reduction, the ECB follows the lead of the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Bank of Canada. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/JPY Faces Downward Pressure Despite Market 'Yenterventions'On Wednesday, GBP/JPY experienced a slight decline, easing to 200.30 but remaining close to multi-decade highs near 200.75. The pair has drifted into bullish territory as markets seem to dismiss potential "Yenterventions" by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which have yet to be confirmed. Despite speculation about direct intervention in global foreign exchange markets, the Yen continues to weaken. The primary driver behind the Yen's ongoing decline is the substantial interest rate differential between the Yen and other major global currencies. This wide gap in interest rates has kept JPY flows on the short side, as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. Even with repeated warnings from BoJ policymakers, the market continues to sell the Yen, demonstrating limited impact from these interventions. Furthermore, the BoJ's stance and actions have been under scrutiny, as their commitment to maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy contrasts sharply with the tightening cycles observed in other major economies. This divergence in monetary policies exacerbates the Yen's depreciation, as higher interest rates elsewhere attract capital flows away from Japan. From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY shows signs of divergence on the higher time frame charts. This divergence indicates a potential bearish setup, suggesting that the pair might be due for a correction after its recent highs. Technical analysts often use such divergences as early indicators of potential reversals in trend, as they reflect underlying market conditions that may not be immediately apparent in the price action alone. In addition to the technical signals, the broader market sentiment and macroeconomic factors should be considered. The ongoing uncertainty regarding the BoJ's actual interventions and the general risk sentiment in global markets could influence GBP/JPY movements. As such, while the pair currently remains in bullish territory, traders should stay vigilant for signs of a potential reversal, particularly given the mixed signals from both fundamental and technical perspectives. In summary, GBP/JPY has shown resilience near multi-decade highs despite the BoJ's warnings and potential interventions. However, the significant interest rate differential and technical indicators of divergence suggest a possible bearish setup. Investors and traders should closely monitor both the BoJ's actions and broader market trends to navigate this complex trading environment effectively.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Loses Ground Despite Strong Economic Data but..The Japanese Yen continued to weaken on Thursday, even as economic data showed a positive trend. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.2% year-over-year in May, up from April's 1.8%, which marked a 26-month low. In addition, Japan’s Retail Sales (YoY) grew 2.4% in April, accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in March and surpassing market forecasts of 1.9% growth. This marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion, indicating a sustained period of healthy consumption in Japan. Monetary Policy Implications The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its deeply entrenched monetary policy stance. Should nationwide inflation in Japan decline, it would prevent the central bank from raising interest rates. The significant rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to exert pressure on the Japanese Yen, underpinning the USD/JPY pair. US Dollar Rebound The US Dollar (USD) rebounded ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is due to be released today. However, the decline in US Treasury yields could limit the advance of the US Dollar. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we are anticipating a rebound for the Yen, particularly if the US Core PCE Price Index shows a negative impact. The footprint analysis reveals several areas of demand on the daily timeframe chart, where the value could find support for a possible reversal. Investors should monitor the upcoming Core PCE data closely, as it will likely influence the near-term direction of both the USD and JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Identifying Bearish OpportunitiesThe EUR/JPY presents a compelling price action scenario with notable opportunities. Recently, the pair encountered strong absorption at the 171.500 level, evidenced by a significant spike indicating substantial seller presence in this price area. This absorption led to a pronounced bearish impulse driving the price down to the 164.000 level. Since then, the price has been on a recovery trajectory, creating an area of imbalance that the market may seek to revisit for potential retests of previous price levels. In addition to these observations, technical analysis reveals a divergence on the RSI, which suggests a potential double top formation. This divergence indicates weakening bullish momentum, strengthening the case for a bearish outlook. Given these conditions, we have positioned our stop loss at 171.000 to protect against any attempts by the price to retest higher absorption levels above the current range. This strategic setup highlights a promising bearish opportunity, supported by the significant absorption at the 171.500 level, the initial bearish impulse around 164.000, and the divergence observed on the RSI. Traders should closely monitor these technical indicators and price levels to capitalize on potential market movements. This analysis underscores the importance of vigilance in managing positions and adjusting strategies as the market evolves.
Short
by FOREXN1
6
AUD/USD: Implications of JOLTS Job Openings DataThe Australian Dollar experienced a marginal decline amidst concerns surrounding an unexpected current account deficit totaling A$4.9 billion in the first quarter. Concurrently, the growth forecast for Australia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been revised downward to 1.2% year-over-year, a decrease from the previous rate of 1.5%. Conversely, the US Dollar maintained stability, supported by an upward correction in US Treasury yields, highlighting a contrasting trend. In terms of technical analysis, recent market movements nearly reached our predefined profit-taking level before retracing to a region of interest. We are now poised to consider long positions, particularly in light of the forthcoming release of US JOLTS Job Openings data later today, which could potentially fall short of optimistic expectations. Key market drivers include the unexpected Australian Current Account Deficit, indicative of underlying economic challenges, and the anticipated slowdown in GDP growth, both of which could exert further pressure on the Australian Dollar. Conversely, the USD remains fortified by the resilience of US Treasury Yields. The impending release of the JOLTS Job Openings Data assumes critical importance, with the potential to significantly influence the trajectory of the AUD against the USD. Should the data fail to meet optimistic forecasts, we stand prepared to capitalize on renewed AUD strength, leveraging any disparity in US economic indicators.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD: Bullish Continuation?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸 I see a classic bullish pattern on EURUSD: a bullish flag. After a completion of a bullish impulse, the price started a correctional movement within. With a yesterday's bullish movement, the market managed to break and close above the resistance of the flag and set a new higher high higher close. For us, it is an important bullish signal. I think that the market may keep growing to 1.0921 level soon. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
EUR/USD: Potential Rebound from Consolidation ZoneThe EUR/USD pair remains in a sideways movement following the profit realized from our previous analysis. The price reversed during the latter part of Friday after US data revealed that inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, increased by 2.7% year-over-year in April, consistent with March's figures and market expectations. Today, the price is approaching the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels within this consolidation zone, indicating a possible rebound following the release of the US PMI data later today. Current forecasts suggest a bearish sentiment favoring the US Dollar. Key Economic Indicators Later today, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for May. Investors anticipate an improvement in the reading to 49.8 from April's 49.2. A reading above 50 would indicate a return to expansion territory for business activity, potentially supporting the USD in the latter half of the day. Conversely, if the data meets or falls below expectations, a price rebound from the indicated area is likely. Technical Analysis: Footprint Chart Insights The footprint chart shows a block of buy orders that could be triggered in correlation with limit orders, supporting a potential price rebound. This aligns with the anticipated market reaction to today's PMI data, making this a critical area to watch for possible bullish movement. In summary, keep an eye on the US PMI data release today, as it will play a pivotal role in determining the EUR/USD movement. The technical setup and current forecasts suggest a potential rebound from the consolidation zone, depending on the PMI results.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
Special words for gold trading We often see these words when trading. If you understand them, trading will be easier. Including "deposit, withdrawal, position, closing, take profit, stop loss", etc.; they mean: Deposit: remit personal funds to the trading account for trading; Withdrawal: transfer part or all of the balance in the trading account to a personal bank account; Position: the name of the trader buying and selling contracts in the market; establishing a trading order is called "establishing a position", a buy order is called a "long position", and a short-selling order is called a "short position" Closing: ending a held buy order or sell order; Take profit: the trading order finally achieves the profit target and leaves the market with a profit; Stop Loss: When the order loss reaches the maximum tolerable amount, admit the loss and leave the market; In addition to the commonly used terms, there are also some special terms involved in the trading market; For example: heavy position, light position, carry order, lock position, liquidation Heavy position: Most of the funds in the trader's account are involved in order transactions Light position: The trader only uses a small part of the funds in the account to participate in the order; In trading, there is a most basic principle that "don't put all your eggs in one basket" There are always risks in the financial market, and traders should remember one sentence: Avoid risks, trade with light positions, and never hold heavy positions. Light position standards: Total loss of holding positions ≤ one-tenth of the account amount The number of lots for a single transaction of 10,000 US dollars is not more than 0.5-1 lot Carry order: When traders encounter losses, they have no stop-loss strategy, do not know how to stop losses and choose opportunities to start over, but always hold losing orders and bet everything on the rise and fall of the market. This is a behavior that should be avoided in trading. Locking: Similar to "carrying orders", when traders encounter losses, they do not implement stop-loss strategies, but establish reverse orders while holding loss orders. Locking can only allow traders to temporarily stop further losses, but cannot get rid of losses. If the net value is not enough, a "black swan event" will occur, and the short-order spread will increase instantly, which will also lead to a margin call. Margin call: When the funds in the trader's trading account are not enough to trade, it is a margin call; margin call means the loss of all principal. If you are a novice, these must be helpful to you! I will share trading knowledge from time to time, and you can follow me if you need it.
TVC:GOLDEducation
by Signalking
USD/CAD: Implications of US Treasury Auction ResultsOn Wednesday, the Canadian Dollar experienced a weakening trend across various currency pairs, as the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar gained traction in the broader market. This decline in the Canadian Dollar's value was notably influenced by subdued bid-to-cover ratios observed in a US Treasury auction held on Tuesday, which contributed to dampened market sentiment as the week progressed, leading to a decrease in risk appetite among investors. From a technical standpoint, the price has initiated a reversal from a previous supply area, signaling a potential bearish continuation trajectory below demand regions. This technical analysis suggests a shift in market dynamics favoring downward movement in the Canadian Dollar's value. The economic calendar for Canada remained relatively quiet on Wednesday, with attention now turning to Thursday's release of the Canadian Current Account data. Market expectations anticipate a decline to -5.5 billion, following a climb to a six-month high of -1.62 billion in the previous quarter. Subsequently, on Friday, investors will await the release of Canadian Q1 Gross Domestic Product figures, which are projected to stabilize at 0.0% month-on-month, compared to the previous reading of 0.2%. These upcoming data releases are likely to further influence trading sentiment surrounding the Canadian Dollar.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
CADJPY: Bullish Outlook Explained 🇨🇦🇯🇵 CADJPY is trading in a bullish trend on a daily. Last week, the price set a new higher high higher close, violating a strong horizontal resistance. The market opening turned out to be bearish. The pair is currently testing a contracting demand zone based on a broken structure and a solid rising trend line. I think that the market may resume the growth soon. Next resistance - 115.8 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
1
AUD/USD Rises Amid Positive Economic Indicators and PMI releaseThe Australian Dollar started the Monday session on a strong note, accelerating ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI release. During the early hours of the Asian session, the AUD received support as Australia's minimum wage increased by 3.75%, aligning with market estimates that ranged from 3.5% to 4.0%. Key Factors Driving the AUD/USD Pair Wage Increase: The significant 3.75% increase in the minimum wage in Australia provided a boost to the Australian Dollar, reflecting confidence in the domestic economy. US Inflation Data: The AUD/USD pair also strengthened following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data. As the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data for April indicated that price pressures were easing, which had a positive impact on the AUD. Australia's Inflation Rate: Australia's monthly inflation rate accelerated to 3.6%, increasing the likelihood that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might consider raising interest rates again. This further supported the AUD's upward momentum. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we can observe a divergence in the price action with the value above the 200 EMA. This suggests a potential bullish setup. Given these technical and fundamental factors, we are looking for a long position on the AUD/USD pair. Conclusion The Australian Dollar's strength is underpinned by positive domestic economic indicators and easing US inflation pressures. With the upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI release, investors will be closely watching for further cues. Based on the current technical setup and supportive fundamentals, a long position on the AUD/USD pair appears favorable.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
FLOATING SPREAD VS FIXED SPREAD🌐 The trading conditions of any account specify the type of spread: floating or fixed. As a rule, the value of a fixed spread is larger, but a floating spread has an insidious wording “from...” in the terms and conditions. This means that the floating spread may well be greater than the fixed one. Nevertheless, it is considered better. What are its advantages and disadvantages, what spread to choose? 📍 ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF FLOATING SPREAD ▶️ FIXED SPREAD The difference between the buy and sell price of an asset is constant. This indicates that the broker works according to Straight Through Processing (STP) model - directly with a specific liquidity provider, the size of the spread with which is pre-agreed. The broker charges its commission (markup) and the trader sees the final difference. The fixed spread is only theoretical. Often in the offer there is a clause that the broker can unilaterally change it. And broker does it at the moment of news release, when volatility increases sharply. ▶️ FLOATING SPREAD The difference between price/offer is formed by the market. The broker only adds its small commission, that's why there are no zero spreads. Floating spreads are set on ECN accounts, where orders are not placed to a specific liquidity provider, but to the general market. Such accounts have a high entry threshold and a fixed commission for each lot placed on the account. 📍 THE FLOATING SPREAD DEPENDS ON: 🔘 Market Liquidity. During the vacation season, on the eve of vacations, at the moment of flat trading activity decreases. The smaller the volumes and the fewer traders, the bigger the gap between Bid and Ask prices. 🔘 Currency Liquidity. Or investors' interest. The FX:EURUSD pair is liquid, the pair of the US dollar with the South African rand is called exotic and the spread on it is one of the largest. 🔘 Volatility. Or the speed of trend movement. If after the news release the imbalance of bids in the direction of buyers or sellers sharply increases, the spread will also grow. 🔘 Time of day. Or the period of activity of traders of this or that region. 📍 ADVANTAGES OF A FLOATING SPREAD: ➡️ Most of the time it is less than the fixed spread. ➡️ No requotes - the transaction is executed in any case. ➡️ Floating spread is more profitable than fixed spread for liquid currencies. Fixed spread is more profitable for “exotics”. ➡️ It is favorable for scalping, where every tenth of a point is important for profit. 📍 DISADVANTAGES OF FLOATING SPREAD: ➡️ There are slippages at the moment of sharp spread widening. ➡️ It is necessary to constantly monitor its change. ➡️ It can sharply increase when a fundamental factor appears. ➡️ There is still a risk of artificial spread widening by the broker (it is not easy to prove). ➡️ Increases emotional tension. With a fixed spread a trader always knows the amount of expenses. Expansion of a floating spread can turn a profitable trade into a losing one. If you open a new account with a broker, pay attention to the following points. In what cases the broker has the right to change the fixed spread. What quotes we are talking about. Outdated data on the website may turn out to be conditions for 4-digit quotes. Compare spreads at different brokers on a demo account; install a script showing the current spread. Run it on one asset, watch how and when the floating spread might widen. 📍 CONCLUSION The choice between a fixed spread and a floating spread depends on several factors, including market liquidity, currency pair, volatility, and time of day. While fixed spreads offer a set and predictable price difference, floating spreads can be more competitive and profitable, especially for scalping strategies. However, floating spreads also come with risks, such as slippage and the need to constantly monitor spread changes. When opening a new account with a broker, it's essential to pay attention to the terms and conditions, clarify quotes, compare spreads across different brokers, and test the floating spread on a demo account. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
5
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 12 - GBPAUD - (1st June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing GBPAUD, starting from the 12-Month chart. - R2F
Education
by Road_2_Funded