GBP/USD Eyes Potential Rebound from 1.2660 Support AreaGBP/USD closed in negative territory on Thursday, snapping a three-day winning streak. The pair appears to find support on Friday around the 1.2660 area, a key level that could mark the beginning of a bullish rebound. Several technical indicators suggest a potential upside move from this support zone.
The 1.2660 support area has emerged as a critical level where the pair seems to stabilize after recent declines. Notably, there are a couple of divergences on both the RSI and Stochastic indicators, indicating potential bullish momentum. Divergences in these indicators often signal that the prevailing trend may be weakening, paving the way for a reversal.
From a technical perspective, the observed divergences in the RSI and Stochastic indicators at the 1.2660 level strengthen the case for a rebound. These indicators measure momentum and oscillation, respectively, and their divergences suggest that the selling pressure might be easing, making room for a potential upward movement.
Given these technical signals, we are looking for a rebound from the 1.2660 support zone, with a potential bullish impulse in the near term. Traders should monitor the price action closely at this level for confirmation of a reversal. A sustained move above this support could trigger further gains, potentially resuming the pair's previous uptrend.
In conclusion, while GBP/USD has faced recent selling pressure, the technical outlook at the 1.2660 support area suggests a possible bullish rebound. The divergences on the RSI and Stochastic indicators reinforce this view, providing a positive setup for traders looking for an upside move. As the market stabilizes, attention will be on whether the pair can leverage this support for a renewed bullish impulse.
Forex-trading
AUD/USD Starts New Week with Positive Tone,Rebound ExpectedThe AUD/USD pair kicked off the new week on a positive note, hinting at a potential rebound from a significant support area that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This comes after a bearish reversal observed last week, which saw the pair correcting from its previous bullish momentum.
Recent Trading Activity
Last week, we successfully closed a profitable position by capitalizing on the bullish impulse. Our detailed analysis and forecast, available on our page, accurately predicted the upward movement, allowing us to ride the bullish wave to its peak.
Technical Analysis
Currently, the AUD/USD is showing signs of a potential reversal from the support area. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, known for being a strong support level, adds further weight to this potential rebound. This Fibonacci level is often seen as a critical point where prices tend to find support and reverse, especially after a significant bearish correction.
Market Sentiment and Trend Analysis
Analyzing the market sentiment, an upside break this week appears marginally more likely than a downside break. This outlook is based on the observation that the trend prior to the formation of the current range was bullish. Typically, when a range forms after a strong trend, the breakout tends to follow the direction of the initial trend. Therefore, the probability of an upward breakout remains slightly higher.
Trading Strategy
Given the technical indicators and market sentiment, we have decided to open a bullish setup. This setup offers a positive risk/reward (R/R) ratio, making it a viable long-term trade. By positioning ourselves for a potential rebound, we aim to capitalize on the expected upward movement while managing our risk effectively.
EUR/USD Trades Higher on Monday After Rebound from supportsThe EUR/USD currency pair experienced a notable upward movement on Monday, following a rebound from critical support levels around 1.0700 and 1.0640 during the early European session. This rebound marks a significant shift after a period of pressure, largely attributed to potential risks emerging from France's financial situation. The speculation that Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) may form a new government has raised concerns over France's fiscal stability, thereby dampening the Euro's appeal.
Technical Analysis
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair displayed a rejection at the 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level derived from the major swing low, precisely within the support area identified last week. This rejection was further supported by a double divergence observed in both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic indicators on the H4 timeframe, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
The Fibonacci retracement level is a crucial tool used by traders to identify potential reversal levels. The 78.60% retracement level, in particular, is considered a deep retracement and often indicates strong support or resistance. The fact that the price rejected this level suggests a strong bullish sentiment among traders.
Market Sentiment and Economic Factors
The broader market sentiment has been influenced by political developments in France. The potential ascendancy of Marine Le Pen's National Rally to government raises significant concerns over fiscal policy changes, which could impact the overall economic stability of France and, by extension, the Eurozone. Such political uncertainties often lead to increased volatility in currency markets, as investors adjust their positions based on perceived risks.
Despite the political uncertainties, no significant economic releases were scheduled for today, particularly concerning the Empire State Manufacturing Index for the USD. This absence of major economic data implies that the currency pair's movement is driven more by technical factors and geopolitical news rather than immediate economic indicators.
Outlook and Future Expectations
Looking ahead, traders and analysts are anticipating potential strong volatility in the EUR/USD pair as they await economic data releases in the coming days. The lack of significant economic news today leaves the pair susceptible to technical trading and news-driven volatility.
Given the current technical setup and market sentiment, a bullish impulse is expected in the EUR/USD pair. The rejection of the 78.60% Fibonacci level, coupled with the double divergence in the RSI and Stochastic indicators, points towards a potential continuation of the upward trend. Traders will be closely monitoring upcoming economic releases and political developments for further cues.
In summary, the EUR/USD pair's rise on Monday, following a rebound from crucial support levels, highlights the interplay between technical indicators and geopolitical factors. While the speculation surrounding France's political future weighs on the Euro, the technical rejection of key support levels suggests a potential bullish trend. As traders await more economic data, the pair is poised for further volatility, with a bullish outlook prevailing in the short term.
EUR/USD Faces Pressure, Eyes Potential Bullish RetracementFollowing Wednesday's surge, EUR/USD reversed course and experienced significant losses on Thursday. The pair remains under pressure on Friday, trading at its lowest level since early May, just below 1.0700. This downturn reflects the broader market sentiment and the evolving economic landscape.
The shift in risk sentiment helped the US Dollar (USD) gain strength during the American trading hours on Thursday. Additionally, the negative impact of soft inflation data on the USD began to dissipate as investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's policy outlook in light of the hawkish revisions to the Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed's commitment to its current monetary policy stance has provided a boost to the USD, further pressuring the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the price has reached a strong support area. Here, we observe a double divergence on both the RSI and Stochastic indicators, signaling potential bullish momentum. Furthermore, the price has touched the 78.6% retracement level from the previous swing low, adding to the likelihood of a reversal. These technical indicators suggest that the EUR/USD may be poised for a bullish retracement.
Despite the current downward pressure, the EUR/USD pair is showing signs of resilience. The technical indicators provide a hopeful outlook for traders looking for a recovery. The double divergence on the RSI and Stochastic indicators, coupled with the critical 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level, points towards a potential rebound. Traders will be closely monitoring these indicators for confirmation of a bullish trend reversal in the coming sessions.
GBP/USD Nears Monthly Low as Fed Maintain Interest Rate FirmnessThe Pound Sterling (GBP) continued its decline against the US Dollar (USD) for the third consecutive trading day on Monday. The GBP/USD pair is currently hovering near its monthly low, around 1.2660, as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish stance on interest rates maintains the US Dollar's strength.
Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook
The Fed's current position is to reduce interest rates only once this year. However, financial markets are speculating that the Fed might implement two rate cuts and begin unwinding its restrictive policy framework starting from the September meeting, with potential subsequent cuts in November or December. This speculation is driven by the soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May, which have increased expectations for early rate cuts.
Impact on GBP/USD
The Fed’s firm stance on maintaining higher interest rates supports the US Dollar's appeal, exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Despite the market's expectations for rate cuts, the immediate outlook for the USD remains strong, making it difficult for the GBP to gain ground.
Technical Analysis
Divergence and Support Levels
Despite the bearish trend, technical analysis reveals that the GBP/USD pair is showing a divergence on the H4 timeframe. Divergence occurs when the price movement contradicts the signal from technical indicators, often suggesting a potential reversal or slowdown in the current trend.
The current price action is also situated in a demand area of support, which aligns with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. These Fibonacci levels are commonly used to identify potential support and resistance zones where price reversals might occur.
Trading Strategy
Given the technical setup, we have identified a range area where the price is currently trading. Although the pair has seen a significant drop, the divergence and support confluence suggest a potential for a reversal or at least a temporary stabilization.
To manage risk effectively, a stop loss is placed just below the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci support levels. This ensures that if the price breaks through these key support areas, it signals a clear change in the main trend, and the trade can be exited with minimal losses.
USDCAD: Detailed Support & Resistance Analysis 🇺🇸🇨🇦
Here is my latest structure analysis for USDCAD.
Vertical Structures:
Vertical Support 1: Rising trend line
Horizontal Structures:
Support 1: 1.3664 - 1.3682 area
Support 2: 1.3590 - 1.3627 area
Support 3: 1.3547 - 1.3570 area
Support 4: 1.3420 - 1.34920 area
Resistance 1: 1.3777 - 1.3804 area
Resistance 2: 1.3828 - 1.3846 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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JPY Index next week outlookThe Japanese currency continuesly doping down From march of 2020. Now in 4H timeframe already Rebound from 704.1 level. But still not tread breakout confirmation.
Within next week I expect all JPY pairs will fall down to retest the above support area. However still have FVG Between 718 - 120 levels.
NASDAQ Next week expectation #NAS100 Next week..!
The price reaches the highest level. And this should be retested. Because 13th of June reaches this price and falls down to 19,479 level.
But in a low time frame still running between the Accending channels. But the movement is bearish Because 2 times it is tested with treeline.
However once the market opens if the current 4H candle end below 19670 can go for sell to 19352 level. And the buy area located at 18753 - 18933 according to 4H timeframe
*My trading plan. Trade at your own risk good luck
GBPUSD Next week expectation #GBPUSD Next week..!
After ending Friday the pair broke the 4H support level 1.2712 - 1.2703 area. Currently running between the Decending Channel.
Next week the price will retest the above resistance area. Once the bear market is retested. Wait for selling the gbpusd as a swim trader. Scalpers can get selling in 1.27014 to 1.2657 level.
*My expectation not suggested.
GOLD Next week expectation #XAUUSD Next week..!
This week gold reached the resistance zone 2238.00 - 2241.00 area. And pull back to 2295.00 level. Already pullback with the trend line and i Expect gold will be ready to retest the 2281.00 -2286.00 support area.
If unfortunately broke the current resistance I expected the price will make a bullish movement and will reach for 2368.00 - 2376.00 level.
GOLD Next week expectation #XAUUSD Next week..!
This week gold reached the resistance zone 2238.00 - 2241.00 area. And pull back to 2295.00 level. Already pullback with the trend line and i Expect gold will be ready to retest the 2281.00 -2286.00 support area.
If unfortunately broke the current resistance I expected the price will make a bullish movement and will reach for 2368.00 - 2376.00 level.
EURUSD
1D - On the daily timeframe, the price has ultimately settled above the fractal maximum of 1.0885, indicating a shift in context to bullish. The invalidation point for this bullish context will be a price settlement below 1.0788. Additionally, there is a compression movement formed below, down to 1.06, which may serve as a rebalancing target in the future.
EURUSD 1Ddaily timeframe. Starting from Monday, the context was changed back to short. The first target I marked in the previous review was quickly reached. After that, we saw a corrective move to the FVG. Having covered it, the price continued the short order flow, which opens up the possibility for the continuation of the short context with a target of 1.06. The scenario will be invalidated if the price consolidates above 1.085.
AUDCHF: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇦🇺🇨🇭
AUDCHF formed a bearish flag pattern on a 4H time frame,
after quite a strong bearish movement.
Breakout of the support of the flag is an important bearish signal.
The pair may keep falling now.
Goals: 0.5899 / 0.5880
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AUDCAD May Keep Going Higher 🇦🇺🇨🇦
AUDCAD set a new higher high higher close on a daily,
after a release of the yesterday's US fundamentals.
The pair successfully violated a resistance line of a wide horizontal range on a daily.
We can expect a further bullish continuation now.
Next resistance - 0.918
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