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GBPUSD Analysis (20th May 2024) GBPUSD Analysis On the 1 hour Timeframe, price has tapped into the 1 hour FVG and rejected very strongly and created a 15 minute Change of Charcter to the upside. Currently Price has retested the 15 minute bullish OB at the 1.26865 - 1.26924 level. There are 2 scenarios i am looking at. 1) IF price breaks through the Bullish OB with a body candle close below. If this happens i will be looking for price to do a break and retest to continue selling. 2) Price rejectes of the OB and creates a 15 minute CHOCH at the 1.27094. If we see that i want to see a retest of that key level or a retest of a bullish FVG or OB to continue longs.
by CallistoFX
EXPLAINING LIQUIDITY IN SIMPLE WORDSLiquidity plays a vital role in shaping market prices, particularly among large market players such as banks, hedge funds, and other influential entities. These entities, often referred to as market makers, manipulators, and others, are driven by their pursuit of liquidity. In fact, liquidity is the foundation upon which successful trading is built, and it's where traders should begin their journey. In the context of Smart Money Concepts (SMC), liquidity refers to the levels of asset price where multiple market participants have placed limit orders, stop orders, and liquidations. Stop orders are essentially reverse orders designed to mitigate losses by buying back positions that have gone against a trader's expectations. When a trader sets a Stop-Loss order, they're essentially trying to limit potential losses if the market moves against them. The concentration of stop orders creates a gravitational effect, making it attractive for larger players to gain an advantage. By identifying areas with high concentrations of stop orders, big players can exploit these liquidity zones to collect profits from retail traders who are unaware of these market dynamics. As a result, the movement of prices from one liquidity zone to another is driven by the actions of these powerful entities, ultimately shaping the market landscape. ❓ HOW TO IDENTIFY LIQUIDITY ON THE PRICE CHART? Before we dive into trading and trades, we must first identify obvious liquidity pools. These will be our closest target for the price to converge upon. There are several types of liquidity in the market: Equal highs and lows (EQH/EQL), which mark significant turning points Swing structural points, including notable highs and lows that can be significant drivers of market activity Boundaries in sideways price movement, such as ranges or sideways trends, where liquidity is concentrated Trend movement, where liquidity tends to accumulate below or above the trendline 📊 SIGNIFICANT PRICE HIGHS AND LOWS The SMC features six key extrema that significantly impact trading: • The previous month's high and low values • The previous week's high and low values • The previous day's high and low values • The current trading day's high and low values • Equal highs and lows, which can be particularly significant in determining market trends 📈 Equal Highs (EQH) or Equal Lows (EQL) 📉 The double bottom or double top candlestick formation is a common indicator of a potential price reversal. When the price reaches these formations, it typically signals a change in direction, with the price moving in the opposite direction. For retail traders, equal highs and lows are crucial levels of support and resistance, prompting them to place stop orders at these levels. These levels act as a gravitational force, attracting large capital flows and creating a significant amount of liquidity. When the price approaches these levels in reverse, it's not uncommon to see a cluster of stop orders forming, as traders anticipating a bounce from the level wait for the price to react. However, large players often take advantage of this expectation by executing stop-loss orders through a false breakout, ultimately triggering a price reversal. 💲 SIGNS OF A SUCCESSFUL LIQUIDITY GRAB Let's consider a buy scenario as an example. Traders identify a strong low price, and large capital players recognize an obvious accumulation of liquidity at this point. When the price returns to this low and breaks it, but without forming a full candle, the price closes above the broken low. To better understand this concept, let's examine the schematic representation of liquidity grab in buying scenario. Liquidity is a top priority for big players, known as “smart money”. A significant player is actively seeking to find it to secure their position. The reason is that if they were to open trades without sufficient liquidity, they would be exposed to price slippage, as there may not be enough buy or sell orders in the market to execute their trades efficiently. 🔎 IS IT A LIQUIDITY GRAB OR NOT? Distinguishing between a liquidity grab and a breakout of market structure is crucial, as they share similarities. In the case of a liquidity grab, the price fails to close at an important structural highs or lows, instead takes liquidity forming long tailed candles. In contrast, a breakout of the structure sees the price breaks and closes above or below new level. Notably, liquidity grab often precedes a price reversal, whereas breakout of the level typically perpetuates the underlying trend. 📍 TREND LIQUIDITY In a clear trending market, liquidity forms in both directions, at the lows and highs. Let's take a closer look at a downward trend movement. When we see the price moving downwards, we initially take liquidity at the lows, which has been building up since the price reached its maximum. Then, we take liquidity at the minimum, creating a natural flow. At the highs, we deliberately leave liquidity on purpose, allowing it to build up and eventually be taken away naturally. The liquidity at the lows acts as a price magnet, attracting a large player who begins to accumulate their position. In some cases, the price may form equal lows, known as a double bottom in technical analysis. This signals to traders that it's time to enter a trade, and they place stop losses above these levels. At this point, a major player manipulates the price, taking this liquidity and reversing the trend. The first target is then the trend highs, where liquidity is located – it was left earlier to be taken away. 📝 HOW TO WORK WITH LIQUIDITY? When working with liquidity, it can be a valuable tool for entering a trade, as well as helping to set a stop loss by avoiding arbitrary price levels. Instead, you can use liquidity to guide your trading decisions and create more informed stop-loss strategies. Moreover, take profits can also be placed on liquidity levels, as the price is constantly moving between these levels, making it essential to take profits before they're taken away. 💎 CONCLUSION The benefits of liquidity analysis extend to any time frame, whether it's weekly, daily, or even 1-minute charts. This means that liquidity can be effectively applied to analyze forex market, indices, cryptocurrencies and shares of companies for investment purposes, making it a versatile tool for traders and investors alike. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
23
EUR headed down? USD Strengthening? We'll see next week.EUR Dropped slightly on Friday morning, coming down to a low of about 1.08362 trying to break support structures. However the bears couldn't quite get past it. Per previous predictions based off of various data, we did see a retrace back up consolidating for the end of the week below the high. This will likely become become a new Support or Resistance structure later on as we likely move back down. Analysis for the 5 Minute timeframes show that we very well may come back down to continue a down trend, making occasional retracements. As DXY show, the USD did come to a low of around 104.086 before making a higher low, consolidating into a new possible support structure. However SPX500 and DJI did break highs, so this may show decreased interest in the USD, which will impact the USD negatively. Keep an eye on news reports Sunday as the GBP monthly HPI releases along with CNY reports, which will impact the USD value. Small piece of information for any new traders still trying to get a handle on things: Remember that geopolitical news and daily ongoings will impact currency values. Things such as Corn, Cattle, Crude Oil, Precious Metals & more all affect currencies. Keeping an eye on these things will help determine where values are going. Keep an eye on these websites to track news for Forex, Metals and Cryptocurrency. www.forexfactory.com www.metalsmine.com www.cryptocraft.com And here's a Correlation map for Currency pairs. www.mataf.net Good Hunting Traders.
by RagingSniper
XAUUSD Analysis (14th May 2024) Market Analysis PT1/2 (14th May 2024) XAUUSD Analysis On the Daily timeframe, price has retraced to the 0,618 Fibonacci retracement level which is a key area where price could look to go long from. On the 4 hour timeframe, we have created a daily FVG, and price has rejected of it temporarily so we need to look for confirmations. dropping to the 15 minute timeframe, There are 2 scenarios i am looking at. 1) price creates A Change of Character with a body candle close above the 2346.06 level. This will indicate the 15 minute timeframe is shifting for bearish to bullish price action and we can look for a BOS to support that on the 5/15 minute timeframe in order to look for BUYS. 2) Price breaks through the 4 hour FVG/15 minute bullish OB, breaking past the 2328.31 level with a body candle close below. If this happens, Bearishness on Gold is still in play and we can continue to look for shorts during the London session.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by CallistoFX
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report, we said if support held after the open we felt we would get a push to the upside into the order region and if the market held the region we felt an opportunity to short the market was available. That short trade worked well and after partials were taken it was protected. During the week we suggested traders trade caution and we would be looking to target that order region again on the long trade. Again, that trade worked well for us giving a fantastic pip capture half way through the week. We than said we would protect all trades as a break above that order region will then give traders the opportunity to long the market into the 2370-75 region where we would then likely see a reaction in price. Both these moves presented themselves, although the long wasn’t taken due to it being early session, the short at the end of the week was identified. The pip capture on gold was immense, not to mention the numerous other pairs we trade and analyse in Camelot. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? This week we’ll keep it simple, we’re looking for the market to open and hold these resistance levels so we can continue with a move back down into the order region to start with. So we have the resistance levels of 2360 and above that 2365, which if held could present an opportunity to short the market back down into the order region of 2350-55 with extension into 2345 which is where we’re expecting a temporary bounce in price. We need to be careful here as if this level is held during the early part of the week, we could see a complete correction of the move from Friday back into the 2343-35 region before any opportunity to swing low and then take the long trade back upside which we will monitor. The levels are on the chart as is the illustration, we’ll update as we always do during the week. Please note, it’s another big week this week funds wise and with the geopolitical cloud above us expect more extreme swings and whipsawing price action. Your SL is your friend, it’s the difference between you having an account to trade or not having one! Short report this week team so we'll keep it provisional for now. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
13
XAUUSD Analysis (13th May 2024) Market Analysis PT2/2 (13th May 2024) XAUUSD Analysis On the daily timeframe, we have created a Change of Character to the upside at the 2352 level. Currently price is creating a pullback towards that key level. What i want to see is for price to come down lower towards the 2352 level before deciding whether to long or short. If price fails to create a 15 minute change of Character with a Body candle close above, i will be patient on longs and will be more short biased. However, if price action confirmations a retest of the 2352 level and creates a 15 minute Bullish CHOCH, i will be actively looking for longs to target the 2400 level.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by CallistoFX
WHAT ARE REAL WORLD ASSETS (RWA)?Just 3-5 years ago, the concept of "real assets" was clear-cut - physical items that could be owned such as stocks, gold, and currency. On the other hand, "derivatives" referred to intangible assets like swaps, options, and CFDs that allowed for profit-making. However, the emergence of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology has completely transformed this landscape. Not long ago, cryptocurrencies were seen as a separate entity, often labeled as a risky and unsecured financial scheme. But today, they are being recognized as valuable commodities and even as securities. What's even more fascinating is the rise of a new category - Real World Assets. 💡 Real World Assets are a unique category of financial instruments that are based on blockchain technology. 💹 Real World Assets is a market where real world assets are tokenized on the blockchain. These tokenized assets, which we refer to as real assets, are essentially moving traditional assets into decentralized financial applications. The goal is to leverage technology to potentially lower fees and management costs associated with these assets. 📍 REAL WORLD ASSETS EXAMPLES: ➡️ Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency that are centralized and backed by real assets. For instance, Tether's USDT is backed by stocks, government bonds, and fiat currencies, and undergoes some level of auditing. This process is known as tokenization, where the value of the collateral is denominated in stablecoins equivalent to fiat money. The pegging ratio is 1:1, meaning that the value of the stablecoin is directly tied to the value of the underlying assets. Any fluctuations in the value of the assets are balanced out by adding more collateral to maintain the stability of the stablecoin. 🔴 One major drawback of this model lies in the vulnerability to fluctuations in exchange rates of the real asset. In the event that stocks experience significant drawdowns of 20-30%, it is essential for the collateral to be able to mitigate this risk. Furthermore, as the stock value increases, Tether continues to issue additional USDT. Traders are already familiar with the challenges of decoupling stablecoins from their corresponding assets, particularly in the case of centralized stablecoins as opposed to algorithmic ones. ➡️ Private lending, specifically in the form of decentralized lending, has seen a significant player emerge in the form of DAO MakerDAO, the issuer of the DAI stablecoin. In a major move, this startup secured a hefty $100 million credit line with a US bank in mid-2022, backed by real assets as collateral. The startup was able to profit from this arrangement with an impressive 3% annual return. It is noteworthy that regulators did not pay attention to this deal. ➡️ Government bonds are a popular choice for investors seeking stability. Some companies have taken this a step further by issuing stablecoins that are backed by government securities. For example, Ondo Finance offers the USDY stablecoin, while Mountain Protocol offers USDM, which is based on Ethereum. These startups manage stablecoins backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, considered one of the most reliable instruments in the market. Investors can also earn passive income of 5% on top of the stability these investments offer. ➡️ Tokenized securities are on the rise, although the market has not yet reached its full potential. Bitfinex exchange is at the forefront of this trend, with their subsidiary launching the first tokenized bonds in October 2023. These bonds offer investors a tempting yield of 10% and a three-year maturity period. In essence, these tokenized securities work much like traditional bonds, where investors trade tokens for a share of the security and receive passive income in return. 🔴 Investors should be intrigued by the inquiry into how the issuer plans to allocate the funds raised and where the profit is being generated from. This question remains unanswered, as the tokenization process is still evolving. By 2024, HSBC, the British bank, is gearing up to introduce a service for managing tokenized bonds. In October 2023, JPMorgan and Barclays, along with investment firm BlackRock, unveiled a platform for transforming shares into digital assets called the Tokenized Collateral Network. ➡️ Green tokens are an emerging trend in the world of digital assets, with artificial intelligence specifically identifying them as a key player in the future. An interesting fact is that KlimaDAO, a startup backed by billionaire Mark Cuban, ultimately did not succeed in its mission to raise funds to incentivize companies to reduce their emissions. Despite this setback, the concept of green investments and tokens is likely to become a prominent tool in the future. This new form of investment may revolutionize the way companies approach sustainability and incentivize environmentally conscious behaviors. Stay tuned for more developments in the world of green tokens. ➡️ Paxos, a startup in the cryptocurrency industry, has made a connection to precious metals through the creation of gold tokens. Pax Gold has successfully replicated the value of physical gold, allowing investors to easily participate in the gold market without the need to purchase actual bullion or deal with brokers and confusing financial instruments like CFDs and swap fees. By purchasing PAXG cryptocurrency, investors can securely store it in a cold wallet, minimizing the risks associated with exchange bankruptcies or broker insolvencies. ➡️ In January 2023, the real estate startup MarketDAO facilitated a $7 million loan in cryptocurrency DAI to a French conglomerate. The loan was backed by mortgage bonds worth $40 million in US dollars. While this practice is still inconsistent, it marks the beginning of a promising trend in the real estate industry. ➡️ Paintings, sculptures, and other works of art, as well as collectibles, have long been valued for their beauty and uniqueness. The original concept behind NFTs was to revolutionize ownership by tying it to the blockchain, thereby ensuring copyright protection. In 2021-2022, we witnessed the initial steps towards digitizing and transferring paintings onto the blockchain. The future of this trend remains uncertain, but the concept has proven to be functional and shows promise for the art world. 🔴 The prospects for Real World Assets are significant and promising. However, accurately assessing these prospects is currently difficult as the tool is still in development and has not yet found its niche. Several factors are necessary for its success. 1️⃣ Firstly, there needs to be greater user engagement in cryptocurrency and digital technologies. Despite the widespread availability of the internet, not everyone has sufficient knowledge about these topics, let alone blockchain technology. 2️⃣ Secondly, there needs to be real interest and potential benefits from the tool. This can manifest in various ways, such as generating profit or simplifying certain actions. For example, the tool could speed up data transfers, protect copyrights, and make it more accessible for everyday users. Users must see the usefulness of the tool for it to be successful. 📍 CONCLUSION Currently, the reality is that the global market is valued at hundreds of trillions of dollars, a figure that the cryptocurrency market cannot compete with. For instance, as of 2020 estimates, the worldwide real estate market is valued at approximately $326 trillion in US dollars. According to RWA.xyz, the funds locked in blockchain technology total $4.5 billion, with just over $500 million in loans issued. However, the revolution of Real World Assets technology is on the horizon. In the next 1-2 years, this tool will begin gaining traction among the masses, similar to the rise of artificial intelligence in 2023. It is predicted that in 5 years, RWA technology will reach its peak of popularity. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
2
Decoding the BoJ's Role: Impact on GBP/JPY ReversalThe GBP/JPY experienced a notable turnaround at the 200.500 level following reports indicating potential direct intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the foreign exchange (FX) markets. This intervention, suspected to have occurred twice within a two-day span earlier this week, aimed to bolster the beleaguered Japanese Yen (JPY). Disclosure reports from the BoJ revealed a significant overspending on uncategorized financing operations, amounting to approximately 9 trillion Yen. This substantial deviation from expected financial activities strongly suggests the likelihood of direct market intervention in support of the Yen. However, official statements confirming or denying such actions have yet to be issued. Our analysis anticipates a retesting of the aforementioned price zone, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the GBP/JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
USDJPY Looking for correction ??The USD/JPY pair has completed the impulsive wave sequence labeled as 1-2-3-4-5 and is now entering a corrective phase, typically labeled as A-B-C. The price has already formed waves A and B and is currently progressing towards wave C, which is expected to extend to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Additionally, the formation of a head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential reversal or a downward correction in the price. Here’s a written summary of the analysis: USD/JPY Technical Analysis: - Impulsive Waves: Completed (1-2-3-4-5) - Corrective Waves: In progress (A-B-C) - Wave A: Completed - Wave B: Completed - Wave C: Targeting 1.618 Fibonacci extension Pattern Analysis: - Head and Shoulders pattern observed, indicating a potential reversal or correction.
Short
by joestar95
1
XAUUSD Analysis (10th May 2024) Market Analysis PT1/2 (10th May 2024) XAUUSD Analysis On the 1 hour timeframe, price has finally broken out of the 3 day range we have formed. As price is driving towards higher prices on Gold, Price has actually created a 1 hour Bullish FVG as well as a Bullish OB. There are 2 scenarios that could play out. 1) Price retest into the FVG and continues bullish after a quick retest, giving us a 5 minute Change of Character to the upside. 2) Price retraces deeper into the 1 hour OB. IF this happens i will wait for a 15 minute CHOCH before looking for potential buy entries.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by CallistoFX
✅GOLD Prices Rebound Amidst Speculation on Interest Rate OutlookOn Monday, the price of gold experienced a rebound as market participants deliberated over the trajectory of interest rates in light of recent US employment indicators. According to Friday's data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated that 175,000 individuals secured employment in April, falling below market expectations. Of particular note was the deceleration in wage inflation, with Average Hourly Earnings exhibiting a decline both on an annual and monthly basis compared to economists' projections. The current price of gold remains confined within a range-bound area or rectangle, with the preceding rebound observed around the $2288 mark potentially manifesting upon a retest of the upper boundary of this channel, with potential for further expansion. The underwhelming employment data suggests a potential for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to initiate interest rate cuts earlier than previously envisaged. This prospective scenario heightens the appeal of gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal. We anticipate a bullish continuation, adopting a scalping approach characterized by higher potential rewards but a lower win rate.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1