EURJPY: Time For Pullback?! 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY may retrace from a key daily horizontal resistance.
The market looks quite overbought after quite an extended bullish movement.
A cup & handle formation on an hourly time frame indicates a local strength
of the sellers.
I expect a retracement at least to 166.76 support.
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Forex-trading
USDCHF: Time to Sell?! 🇺🇸🇨🇭
USDCHF is currently testing a recently broken horizontal structure support,
that presumably turned into resistance after a breakout.
As a bearish confirmation, I see a horizontal range on an hourly time frame
and a bearish violation of its support.
I think that the price may drop soon to 0.9063
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US30 - Short Signal US30 H4
We fell marginally short of seeing this price trigger yesterday as we approached the underside of our key sell zone. US stock market open may provide the volume and entry point to see and commit to shorts from that 39k price.
Nice confluence zone offering that whole/psychological number, H4 supply and resistance.
CADCHF: Bearish Outlook Explained 🇨🇦🇨🇭
CADCHF pair broke and closed below a solid intraday horizontal support.
After a violation, the market retested the broken structure and started to consolidate.
A bearish breakout of a support line of a consolidation range gives us a strong bearish confirmation.
It increases the probabilities that the fall will continue.
Goals: 0.6587 / 0.6567
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DXY H8 - Long SignalWe are into some typical trading volume after the bank holiday period. 105 support seems to be holding nicely for the moment, more volume to flow in as we see in NA morning and US stock market open.
Really hoping to see the dollar gain from here and therefore looking for *USD shorts and USD* longs.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
We were expecting it to be a quiet day, but in true unconventional market fashion we actually had a blinding day on the markets, especially gold. Early session we saw the break above which confirmed the long trade, Excalibur activated, the red box strategy agreed, and we got not 1 but 2 fantastic long trades on gold. To top it off, tap and bounce on the nose from the reaction point highlighted on the chart giving a move down, but only into support.
So, what now?
We would like to see this support level below hold around 2320-15 region, and if so, would like to see this attempt that 2335-40 region before we decide whether the set up is right for the short trade.
Resistance now stand at 2330-35 which will need to break to go higher. Otherwise, we'll look for the setup tomorrow and wait for Excalibur to confirm.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
“DRAGON” PATTERN IN TRADINGAs we dive into studying price action, we can't help but be intrigued by the interesting names given to various patterns. Names like "Two Rivers" and "Shooting Star" not only sound captivating but also accurately describe the patterns they represent. In this post, we'll introduce you to another powerful pattern known as the Dragon. This pattern, belonging to the reversal patterns, is not only commonly found in the Forex market but is also highly effective.
💡 HOW THE DRAGON PATTERN IS FORMED?
The pattern has known points, without which the formation is not possible:
HEAD
LEFT FOOT
RIGHT FOOT
HUMP
TAIL
Each of the points, should be placed in the specified place, without distortions and various force majeure.
The Dragon pattern is a reversal pattern in the forex market.
In order to successfully trade the Dragon formation, it is crucial to have a clear understanding of the important data associated with it.
📍 Firstly, in a downtrend, you must identify the last local lower high, which will serve as the head of the Dragon pattern. Subsequently, the market will continue to decline and reach a specific level that it cannot surpass, marking the left foot of the formation.
📍 The Dragon's Hump is then formed through a corrective movement from point 1 to point 2. It is essential that this correction does not exceed 38.2% to 50%. Following this correction, the market should attempt to retest the previous lows, ideally failing to do so. This failure indicates a potential shift in momentum, allowing for a buying opportunity.
📍 Drawing a trendline from the head to the hump serves as a signal line. Once this trendline is broken, the Dragon pattern is confirmed, signaling a long position entry.
📍 Setting a Stop Loss below the dragon's feet helps to manage risk, while the first target is set at the level of the hump and the second target at the head. Take Profit levels can be set at these targets to maximize profitability.
Another possible scenario is when the bears successfully bring the market below the initial support level. Personally, I find this detail somewhat undermining to the pattern. In such a situation, it can be interpreted as follows: if the bears succeed in pushing the market to new lows, it indicates that they may not be as weak as they seemed at first, which encourages caution in buying. However, if the price returns above the last local low and creates a false breakout with a bullish divergence, it can be considered a strong signal.
The bullish reversal pattern Dragon has its counterpart in the bearish reversal pattern known as the Inverted Dragon. Just like its bullish counterpart, the Inverted Dragon follows similar patterns and characteristics, so there is no need to describe it separately. As mentioned earlier, these patterns are named for their resemblance to real-life examples, and I have included a chart overlay in the screenshot below for reference.
It is essential to have a strategy and a set of rules when considering any reversal combination in forex market. As many books suggest, patterns often form at the bottom of the market. Although the market bottom may shift quickly, it is important to stay disciplined and adhere to the rules.
The concept of identifying the market bottom involves recognizing key levels where the market has previously rebounded. If a price has bounced off a certain level in the past, there is a higher probability of it happening again in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to look for potential patterns, such as the Dragon pattern, when the price nears a support level (for bullish patterns) or a resistance level (for bearish patterns).
📒 TO AVOID MISIDENTIFYING PATTERNS, IT CAN BE HELPFUL TO FOLLOW THESE GUIDELINES:
1️⃣ Start by identifying the current trend movement. In a downtrend, look for a dragon pattern, while in an uptrend, look for an inverted dragon pattern.
2️⃣ Remember that price reversals are more likely to occur at important levels. Without a significant level, there may not be a reversal.
3️⃣ Pay attention to the hump of the dragon pattern, ensuring it does not exceed 38.2% to 50% of the distance from the head to the left foot.
4️⃣ Consider the length of the right foot, which should be 5-10% of the distance from the left foot. Ideally, the right foot should be higher, but it can also be lower.
5️⃣ If there is a trendline breakout, take your time before opening a trade. Assess the potential gain and compare it to the expected loss. If everything checks out, go ahead and take the trade.
📊 USING THE DRAGON PATTERN IN TRADING
As you can see, identifying the pattern is not difficult at all. Remember the key rules:
The hump should be between 38.2% and 50% of the head, indicating left foot movement.
The right leg should be aligned as closely as possible with the left foot.
Most importantly, pay attention to the pattern at significant levels.
The appearance of a pattern does not guarantee that the trend will reverse, but it is considered a strong signal. It is important to make sure that the pattern is formed on a sufficient amount of data. Take into account other factors such as fundamental analysis and the market context.
✅ BOTTOM LINE
The Dragon pattern is widely recognized as a strong indicator of a trend reversal, making it a valuable tool for traders looking to capitalize on market movements. While it can be a helpful guide for entering trades in line with the anticipated trend, it is important to remember that no technical indicator is foolproof and a pragmatic approach is always advised. In addition to the suggested rules, it is essential to incorporate your own money management strategies to ensure profitable implementation of the Dragon pattern. Your feedback and any further perspectives are welcomed. Thank you for your time and input.
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AUDJPY Analysis (2nd May 2024)
AUDJPY Analysis
On the 1 Hour timeframe, price has rejected off a high probability orderblock and coming lower after a strong rejection off the orderblock.
There are 2 scenarios i am looking at:
1) Price comes down and breaks the most recent higher low at 102.204 to look for a break and retest on the 1 hour to continue shorting.
2) price to respect the 1 hour OB and create a 5/15 minute change of character before looking for confirmations to long.
It is important to take into account what the JPY Basket does as it tells us how strong or weak the yen is.
XAUUSD Analysis (1st May 2024)
Market Analysis PT1/2 (1st May 2024)
XAUUSD Analysis
On the 4 hour timeframe, we have confirmed a 4 hour MSS with price closing very bearishly on the 4 hour timeframe.
Dropping to the 1 hour timeframe, price action here has created a 1 hour OB, along with a 1 hour FVG just right under it.
Looking for price to retrace during asia session into the FVG/OB before looking for a 5/15 minute CHOCH to look for shorts.
This week is Price action will be alittle messy due to ADP and NFP coming up. So do trade carefully!
XAUUSD - Long Signal $2300/ozGold is beginning to trend downward as the dollar shows a slight uptick in strength at the outset of the EUR/LON session. While the dollar index remains within the range of 105 to 106, a breakthrough above 106.100 or 106.200 could signal further gains for the USD in the upcoming wave.
However, it's worth noting that we've been witnessing high timeframe consolidation for some time now. Personally, I'm eager for a significant uptrend in gold (XAU) before any subsequent strengthening of the dollar prompts a downward correction once more. The $2300 mark stands as a notable point of convergence in this scenario.
Gold in 30min 03-04-24
high rick with high reward
control your emotional when entry the market and believe in your analyst skill
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MarketBreakdown | GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, EURNZD
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #GBPUSD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸
The market is trading in a bearish trend on a daily.
After the price updated the low, we see quite an extended correctional movement.
The pair is currently approaching a key horizontal resistance.
The next bearish wave may initiate from the underlined structure.
2️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦
Trading in a strong bullish trend, the price formed a falling wedge pattern.
We see a test of a key support at the moment.
Our strong bullish confirmation will be a bullish breakout of the resistance of the
wedge and a candle close above.
It may trigger a strong bullish reaction.
3️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭
The pair is trading in a strong bullish trend within a huge rising wedge pattern.
The price is currently stuck around a key horizontal daily resistance.
Its bullish breakout will be our strong confirmation to buy.
4️⃣#EURNZD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇳🇿
The price formed a head and shoulders pattern.
We see a breakout attempt of its neckline at the moment.
A daily candle close below that will give us a strong bearish signal.
A bearish movement will most likely continue then.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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USDJPY - Strongest uptrend.In my opinion USDJPY may be the best pair to trade for the rest of this year. I was looking at the performance of every major trading pairs from last year, and USDJPY is indeed the pair out of all to have the clearest trend consistency. I've seen how it's been acting all crazy and risky with all the big spikes lately, but that's just the side effects of being the strongest trading pair. I will expect USDJPY to move up at least 1000 pips up until the end of this year if it continues to move up at this rate. Of course the course can break and violate all structures that I've marked, but then it just has to be adjusted over time but as of right now it is most likely to have reactions of these lines that I've marked, because I marked major tops and bottoms, and just dragged them back even further into the past so that they line up with at least three other possible validated tops and bottoms. Keep grinding and keep your heads up. Good luck and high hopes for y'all traders!
EURUSD1h - The hourly timeframe appears less clear despite our short context. The main target was reached in the form of equal lows, which were forming throughout the week. I believe it's quite likely to see a breach of the previous day low (PDL) on Monday, after which the continuation of the long trend may begin. However, this is just speculation. It's important to see how the Asian session behaves as it often provides many clues for intraday trading.
EURUSDHello everyone and welcome to the weekly TOP-DOWN analysis.
The week was not the most active in terms of position accumulation, but at the same time, it was quite informative.
1D - The daily timeframe continues to be in a short context. The first problematic zone was completely covered, but we did not receive the expected reaction and continued the long movement, overlapping the FVG. The main problematic zone is the FVG formed on April 10 during the news. I believe that after partially overlapping it, we will continue the short movement towards the lower targets.
WHAT ARE THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF STABLECOINS?👋 Hello everyone, today we will be discussing stablecoins, which currently have a market capitalization of around $160 billion. Those who are not very familiar with cryptocurrencies often use stablecoins for various purposes such as making payments, storing money in a stable currency as an alternative to the US dollar, and for international transactions as well. However, stablecoins actually have a wide range of potential uses beyond these basic functions. In this post, you will learn about the different types of stablecoins available in the market.
💎 DIFFERENT TYPES OF STABLECOINS, THEIR APPLICATIONS, AND POTENTIAL RISKS
The type of stablecoin and its purpose are typically defined by the developer, who also establishes the asset to which it is pegged, and creates the system for issuing and burning coins. Stablecoins that are listed on the top 20 exchanges globally in terms of capitalization are the ones that garner the most interest.
💎 SECURED BY FIAT WITH A PEG TO A SPECIFIC CURRENCY
Binding can be done in various currencies such as USD, EUR, and others. One of the most well-known coins for binding is Tether. According to its developers, the coin is fully backed by real currency, stocks, bonds, and low-risk assets.
⚠️ However, there are risks involved with backing. For instance, Tether has faced challenges with verifying its backing. The company was not forthcoming in providing all necessary information to auditors. As a result, there are doubts about whether the security can serve as a protection fund in times of unexpected events.
In another example, the second largest USDC stablecoin pegged to the USD fell below 87 cents in early March 2023. This drop was widely attributed to the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank, where the startup had held approximately $3.3 billion in collateral. While the situation has since been stabilized, the potential for another bank failure to affect the value of a stablecoin remains a concern.
💎 SECURED BY A SPECIFIC ASSET
One example of this is the PAXG coin, which is backed by physical gold. This means that the value of the coin is directly linked to the price of gold, eliminating the need for complicated stock market investments or futures trading. By simply purchasing the coin, you can potentially earn money.
⚠️ However, there are risks involved, particularly regarding security. The price of PAXG is not determined by traditional supply and demand forces, as it is tied to the value of gold regardless of the number of tokens in circulation. The algorithm controls the number of tokens, but there is uncertainty about whether the startup behind the coin will fulfill its obligations in case of unforeseen circumstances.
💎 ALGORITHMIC STABLECOINS
One of the most complex models of operation to comprehend is the concept of stablecoins. These digital currencies are built on computer code, which is essentially an algorithm that governs the creation and destruction of coins.
There are primarily two types of algorithmic stablecoins
1️⃣ The first type operates without any external backing. When the price of the stablecoin rises, the algorithm mints more coins. Conversely, when the price drops, it burns existing coins. This mechanism seems logical from an economic perspective, but it becomes problematic during times of crisis when everyone rushes to convert their virtual coins into real money.
⚠️ There are inherent risks associated with algorithmic stablecoins as they lack any physical backing. When you purchase stablecoins by providing USD, the developers may use the funds as they see fit. You can only expect to retrieve your investments if someone else injects more USD into the system. The story of Do Kwon and his Luna stablecoin serves as a cautionary tale of such a pyramid scheme.
2️⃣ The second type of algorithmic stablecoins introduces a more sophisticated concept, exemplified by the workings of DAI created by the startup MakerDAO. The innovative approach involves a redundant reservation system, where the responsibility of securing the collateral lies with the user rather than the developers.
Each user can mint a DAI coin, pegged to the value of 1 USD, by locking up another cryptocurrency as collateral in excess of 100%. This surplus serves as a safety net in case the value of the pledged cryptocurrency experiences a significant drop, potentially by 50% or more. If the value of the collateral falls below the 100% threshold, the investor's position is automatically liquidated. Notably, developers have no control over the issuance of DAI, with the stability of its price reliant on the collateral provided by users.
⚠️ Despite the innovative approach, there are inherent risks involved. A sudden decrease in the value of the collateral cryptocurrency can result in standard "slippages", where users not only lose their collateral asset but are left with a stablecoin experiencing a drastic devaluation from 1 USD to just a few cents.
💎 WRAPPERD STABLECOINS
One popular example is Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC). Bitcoin and Ethereum are the two largest platforms, but they are not compatible with each other. Developers who deploy startups on Ethereum find that their users also work with BTC as a reliable investment tool. WBTC was created as an intermediary to bridge this gap. The coin is deployed on the Ethereum network and is tied to WBTC in a 1:1 ratio.
⚠️ However, there are risks involved in using WBTC. As it belongs to people, there is a lack of decentralization. Only the portion of WBTC that is in demand is secured, leading to a smaller capitalization compared to bitcoin. The extent to which this network can be trusted is a complex question that requires careful consideration.
✅ CONCLUSION
Stablecoins are an effective asset when utilized as a medium of exchange rather than as an investment, unlike gold-backed coins which function more as an investment tool. These coins provide protection against price fluctuations as they are linked to a stable asset. However, they still carry similar risks to altcoins such as detachment from the collateral, a decrease in the collateral's book value, and potential fraud by developers.
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Usdchf confirm buy & enter exit levels read the caption In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 medium term bottom as tentatively seen as developing into a corrective pattern to the down trend from 1.0146 (2022 high). Further rise would be seen as long as 0.8884 resistance turned support holds. But upside should be limited by 0.9243 resistance, at least on first attempt. However, decisive break of 0.9242 will argue that the trend has already reversed and turn medium term outlook bullish
USDJPY: Key Resistance Ahead 🇺🇸🇯🇵
This bullish rally on USDJPY is absolutely crazy.
This week, we saw an exceptional growth.
Analyzing the historical price action, I see
2 significant resistances ahead:
160.0 - 160.5 is the resistance based on a price action of 1990th.
164.1 - 164.5 is the resistance based on a price action of 1986th.
I believe that we may see a bearish reaction from one of those structures
and the price will stop growing there.
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BTC Analysis (27th April 2024)
Crypto Analysis (27th April 2024)
BTCUSD Analysis
On the 4 hour timeframe, price action has swept the buyside liquidity and created a bearish Change of Character, leaving behind a large 4 hour bearish FVG.
Price retraced into the fvg, respected it and continued to create a 4 hour Bearish BOS.
Dropping to the 1 hour timeframe, price has created a 1 hour Bearish unmitigated orderblock we can look to take sells from if bearish confirmations shows after testing the OB.
Else, if price decides to break past the bearish OB, we can capitalise on a break and retest to continue higher.