BOJ to boost the yen this Friday? In addition to the eagerly awaited US data slated for release this week, investors will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision scheduled for Friday.
Market expectations lean towards the BOJ maintaining its current rate settings during Friday's announcement. However, analysts and investors will scrutinize the central bank's commentary for insights into its stance on inflation, as well as indicators like consumption and wages.
A recent forecast from the Japan Center for Economic Research suggests that a majority of economists anticipate at least one more rate hike from the BOJ before year end.
Some market observers speculate that the BOJ's next rate adjustment could be influenced by the depreciation of the yen.
However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has dismissed this speculation, asserting that this won't directly dictate the central bank's monetary policy decisions. Ueda remains optimistic about wage growth prospects and hints at the possibility of another rate hike if trend inflation shows signs of reaching their projected level.
While we may not see a rate hike this Friday, Deutsche Bank does speculate that BoJ might be able to support the Yen by either removing its JGB purchasing guidelines from its statement or revising them to enhance the flexibility of its purchasing operations
Forex-trading
AUD-USD LONG CALL (ONE HOUR TIME FRAME)AUD-USD forex pair right now is moving in a bearish direction. However, the pair has tested its support several times. In addition there is a clear bullish divergence. Therefore, this trading signal is designed to grab the LONG Trade oppurtunity on this forex pair. If the Entry Level mentioned in the trade breaks, there are clear chances that this forex pair will hit TPs.
GBPAUD - Downside Range BreakoutI've been monitoring this pair for quite some time as its been ranging since February of this year. After a failed breakout attempt in early April, it looks like price is making another attempt at this week's open.
I don't really have a strong directional bias with this pair as it's been in quite a whipsaw pattern for the past couple of months. I'd drop down to the hourly timeframe to plan out my entry and a strong move to 2x ATR would be a good closure target.
SIMPLE STEPS IN CREATING A TRADING SYSTEMTrading system and strategy are often equated, but this is not quite right. Both a strategy and a trading system is a single algorithm of actions, including the process of searching for signals and opening trades. But strategy is often understood as following certain rules, while a trading system is a combination of technical, fundamental and psychological components. In other words, the creation of a trading system implies a combination of several strategies that work depending on the situation and their combination with external factors (emotions or news).
📊 CREATING A TRADING SYSTEM
Creating a trading system is the basis of trading. No one prevents you from finding interesting strategies on the Internet, but a trading system is the very core that defines a trader's personality. After all, all people are different. A system is a set of rules, which takes into account the risk appetite, psychological qualities, and way of thinking. The market is influenced by hundreds of different variables, and in order not to drown in the flow of information, it is necessary to identify the basic path and the most influential factors. Building a trading system starts with choosing a narrow niche, which can/should then be gradually expanded.
📝 THE TRADING SYSTEM SHOULD ANSWER THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS:
• What is currently happening in the market?
• What can happen in a fixed period of time?
• How can a trader use the obtained information and forecast at the moment?
There are several basic variants of price action, which most often form the basis of trading systems:
1️⃣ TREND FOLLOWING
When it comes to trend following, the key is to pinpoint the start of a trend and monitor any corrections without mistaking them for a trend reversal. This strategy typically utilizes tools such as wave analysis, patterns, and support&resistance levels. Trend following strategies are commonly implemented on an intraday basis.
2️⃣ BREAKOUT OF RESISTANCE AND SUPPORT LEVELS
The direction of the trend is not the key focus. What truly matters is the price breaking through significant levels. The primary challenge lies in distinguishing between a genuine breakout and a false one.
3️⃣ TRADING INSIDE THE CHANNEL
This is an alternative to the second option. If the price does not break through the level, it returns to its average value. The main tools are the same levels, oscillators, channel indicators.
Additionally, it is important to consider time allocation when creating a trading system. It is crucial to determine the timeframe that best suits your trading style and objectives. Different timeframes, such as intraday, mid-term, and long-term, offer various opportunities and challenges in the market. Understanding how to effectively allocate your time based on your chosen timeframe will help you make well-informed trading decisions:
Intraday. Trades are opened and closed within the day with savings on swaps. They can also include scalping. But if scalping is a high-frequency exhausting trade, then intraday means strategies with the frequency of opening trades up to 3-5 per day.
Mid-term. Can be held for several days, less often - several weeks. They have a strong dependence on the fundamental factor.
Long-term. One of the investment options, providing for the creation of a diversified portfolio of different types of assets.
✔️ The trading system should also answer the following questions:
Which asset optimally corresponds to individual preferences (level of average daily volatility, liquidity, winrate, principle of using leverage/margin percentage).
What are the main parameters of the risk management system: risk level per one trade and for all open positions, lot calculation formula, etc.
What timeframes and technical/fundamental analysis tools to use.
What signals correspond to a successful point of opening a trade.
At what moment to close trades.
✔️ All these points are obvious, but it is the lack of a clear plan that causes mistakes and panic. A trading system plan is a kind of "road map", which provides for:
Different combinations of risk management system parameters. It is not necessary to stick to one risk control strategy. Sometimes an increase in risk is justified. Flexibility is important.
Scenario in case of deviation of actual results of the trading system from statistical results (obtained during testing).
Behavior in different emotional states.
Sources of reliable information.
Order of actions in case of force majeure.
📍 In conclusion , developing a trading system is essential for any trader looking to achieve success in the financial markets. A well-thought-out trading plan with a systematic approach helps traders make informed decisions, manage risks effectively, and stay disciplined in their approach. To trade without a plan is to hope for luck, and luck is not comparable with the theory of probability. Therefore, do not neglect the trading plan.
XAUUSD Analysiscurrently gold is in a strong range consolidating between support and resistance, on higher timeframe gold is in uptrend, the analysis is for intraday/scalping, if price breaks above the resistance the target will be 2393.50, it it breaks below support target will be 2349, always wait for a clean breakout and wait for candle to close outside the range.
AUDUSD: Good Moment to Sell?! 🇦🇺🇺🇸
Update for AUDUSD:
after a correctional bullish movement, I see the signs
of strength of the sellers on an hourly time frame:
the price formed a descending triangle formation
and broke its neckline.
I expect a bearish movement to 0.6417 / 0.6405
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GBPJPY Analysis (18th April 2024)
Market Analysis PT1/2 (18th April 2024)
GBPJPY Analysis
On the 4 Hour timeframe, price action has created a WCR.
This is a vaild WCR as it meets all 3 criterias of:
- Range on the 1hr/4hr/Daily timeframe
- Range is at least 100-150 Pips wide
- More than 2 taps on Each Support/Resistance.
Looking at the 1 hour timeframe, price action has created a 1 hour Change of Character after failling to break past resistance level. What i am personally looking for is for price to sell reject of either the gold fib level from the swing high to the swing low, or come up alittle higher to retest the 1 Hour Orderblock before looking for sells.
Once one of these 2 areas of interest has been tapped, i will be looking for 5 minute/ 15 minute Change of Character before looking to sell all the way down to the support.
EURUSD DayPlan#EURUSD
Good day, we continue to be in a long context despite the corrective movement formed in the latter half of yesterday. I would also like to note the beginning of the order flow in the long direction, which gives us additional reason to adhere to the long context for the day. The intraday target will be the previous day's high (PDH), as well as the liquidity above.
XAUUSD Trade Breakdown (17th April 2024)
XAUUSD Trade breakdown
On the 15 minute timeframe, price broke above the 15 minute bearish Orderblock that created the low during asian session.
Once we confirmed it with a body candle close, i expected price action to retrace to our 5 minute orderblock to retest and reject off it.
This was when i enter for risky buys to target higher prices.
Price ran a grand total of 98 pips for us and we smashed FULL TP.
NZDUSD: Oversold Market & Pullback 🇳🇿🇺🇸
As I predicted, NZDUSD dropped heavily after the release of Retail Sales
data on Monday.
Analysing a price action today, I see that the pair became heavily oversold.
The price formed a falling wedge pattern and a narrow horizontal range within.
Bullish violation of the resistances of the wedge and the range indicate a highly
probable coming pullback.
Targets: 0.5925 / 0.5936
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GBPUSDThe pound, like the euro, is also in a long context since yesterday. A clear order flow in the long direction is visible. The target in the form of the previous day's high (PDH) has already been reached in the news-driven movement. I've marked the second target for the day, which is the nearest high-liquidity zone.
eurusd day planGood morning! We continue to be in a short context on all timeframes. The aggressive Frankfurt opening also hints at the context, with all timeframes synchronized. It's also important not to forget that the current short movement has been going on for several days without any correctional moves. The scenario will be invalidated by a price close above 1.062
GBPJPY Analysis (16th April 2024)
Market Analysis PT2/2 (16th April 2024)
GBPJPY Analysis
On the 1 hour timeframe, price action created a bearish Change of Character after rejecting off a psychological level at 192.700.
In the process of forming a 1 hour CHOCH, price also created as 15 minute orderblock that hasnt been tested.
I am expecting price to retrace towards the 15 minute unmitigated orderblock before looking for potential sell confirmations during the london session.
Do keep a lookout for this potential set up!
XAUUSD Analysis (16th April 2024)
XAUUSD Analysis
Price action has finally started to show bullish intentions creating a 4 hour Change of Character after sweeping Liquidity at $2325 on Gold.
This tells us price action is gearing up to continue to the upside, potentially creating new All Time Highs.
4 hour has created a bullish Fair Value Gap, so during Asian/London, i want to see price retrace into the 4 hour Fair value Gap before looking for Potential Buys.
Confirmation wise i should see at least a 15 minute change of character, or 5 minute change of character if it gets tapped during the london session.
NZDUSD: One More Bearish Setup 🇳🇿🇺🇸
One more pair that looks very bearish to me after news is NZDUSD.
I see a confirmed bearish breakout of a support line of a horizontal
trading range on an hourly time frame.
I think that a bearish trend on the pair will continue.
Initial target 0.59
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EURUSD: Bearish Fundamentals?! 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Looks like the Retail Sales data may strengthen US Dollar today.
As a confirmation, I see a very bearish price action pattern on EURUSD:
bearish breakout of a rising wedge pattern in a bearish trend.
I will expect a bearish movement at least to 1.063
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XAUUSD LONG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS 2400XAUUSD LONG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS 2400
Currently shaping smaller triangle inside a big triangle which is expected to break from 2360 & move for another 400 pips to touch 2400 & then after breaking the bigger triangle Gold will fly once again towards 2480-85 in sha Allah