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Silver Option Trader's Next Move: What's Brewing in the Market?We wanted to share some thoughts on silver with you guys. You know, we've been hunting for insights into this asset for the past few months and sharing the findings of our research and analysis (which, by the way, has been pretty solid - you should check it out). So, let us explain. The first thing (#1 at the chart) we have here is some data on a specific option called "Butterfly" with an expiration date of July 25 - that's 43 days away from now. This is a pretty standard "Butterfly," so it's not really for insider trading. But the interesting thing is, despite the fact that there are still 43 days until expiration, t he person who owns this option portfolio is closing his positions. In other words, he doesn't expect the price to return to this level in the short or medium term. And then we have another level shown here (#2 at the chart), at strike price 25. This strike caught our attention a few weeks back and we've been watching it like a hawk. The drop in open interest at that strike could mean that the downtrend might be over and we're waiting for a bounce, but it hasn't happened yet. The volume of open interest around strike 25 has stayed the same, even with all the volatility in silver and all the ups and downs in the market. Bottom line: the market sentiment is still bearish and we haven't seen any signs of a price turnaround yet.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by ClashChartsTeam
NEW TOKEN LISTING: A Double-Edged Sword for Investors💡 The cryptocurrency market is a realm of endless opportunities, where prices can fluctuate wildly, shooting up 5-10% in a single day in either direction. This volatility can be both exhilarating and intimidating, as it can either wipe out investors or leave them with a quick windfall. However, not everyone is suited to navigate this fast-paced landscape. For those seeking more conservative returns, there are other options available. On the other hand, there are those who are willing to take greater risks in pursuit of substantial profits. One such strategy is to buy coins during the pre-sale period and sell them at their initial listing on the exchange. This approach can be lucrative, as savvy investors can capitalize on the initial hype and sell their coins at a significant markup. To generate buzz and attract attention, many new projects offer their coins for free in exchange for performing simple tasks or purchasing them at a discounted rate. When these coins are listed on the exchange, their value tends to plummet due to oversupply and subsequent sales. However, for those who manage to get in early and sell their coins before the price drops, the potential for significant returns – even 100% or more – is very real. 📍 PRE-LISTING INVESTMENT Recently, a new earning opportunity emerged in the online space, with BINANCE:NOTUSDT being the center of attention. The project's developers cleverly leveraged their marketing expertise to create a buzz around the coin. As a result, it gained widespread visibility, with numerous media outlets and cryptocurrency channels promoting the project. The idea was to generate revenue by simply tapping on your smartphone screen, with active users potentially earning around $300-$400. However, as soon as the coin listed on Binance, its price took a drastic dip. The price recovered after a few weeks, though. In a recent analysis of cryptocurrency tokens listed on Binance, it was found that a staggering 80% of new tokens have lost significant value over the past six months. The notable exceptions to this trend are a few meme coins, including BINANCE:MEMEUSDT and BINANCE:WIFUSDT , as well as tokens associated with the Solana protocol. 📍 THE STUDY HIGHLIGHTS THE FOLLOWING KEY REASONS 1️⃣ Firstly, developers often artificially inflate the cost of their tokens by issuing them at an undervalued price, which creates a surge in demand. Simultaneously, they sell their own share of the tokens, reaping the benefits. 2️⃣ Moreover, many coins lack a genuine long-term investor base and a strong community backing. This lack of support can be a red flag, indicating that these coins may be pre-destined to fail as a potential scam. 3️⃣ Furthermore, listed coins often lack growth potential, failing to meet the criteria for a sound investment instrument. Instead, they tend to attract attention from insiders and retail buyers who are willing to take risks and gamble on their investment. A portfolio comprising newly listed coins suffered an 18% decline in value over the past six months, while the market's blue-chip coins enjoyed significant gains during the same period. This stark contrast has led analysts to sound the alarm, warning that such a phenomenon can have far-reaching implications for the market's integrity. When investors, serving as the primary source of liquidity, inject their funds into poorly performing projects, they become disillusioned with the entire market. As a result, their money migrates towards established coins, leaving new initiatives struggling to secure funding and ultimately forcing them to shut down. Even innovative ideas with great potential are stifled by a lack of interest and resources. The solution to this problem lies in stricter regulation by cryptocurrency exchanges, which currently allow unscrupulous projects to exploit the market. However, exchanges are driven by profit, so this issue remains unresolved for now. 📍 CONCLUSION Identifying a token with potential for significant profit after listing can be a challenging and high-risk endeavor. The key factor in determining success is the interest of investors. If a coin is solely speculative, it is likely to experience a decline in value after listing. Conversely, if a token is backed by developers and has inherent value, it may have a chance to grow. However, with the vast majority of new tokens being scams, the risk of loss is significantly higher than the potential gain from a successful investment. From a risk perspective, this investment model appears unreasonable compared to long-term investments in established coins like BINANCE:BTCUSDT or top-tier cryptocurrencies. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment📣
Education
by Lingrid
5
AUD/USD Gains Momentum Following RBA Governor's RemarksThe AUD/USD pair is gaining traction after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock indicated on Wednesday that the central bank is prepared to raise interest rates if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not return to the target range of 1%-3%, as reported by NCA NewsWire. This hawkish stance has provided a boost to the Australian Dollar, reflecting increased market confidence in the currency. Technical Analysis Overview From a technical perspective, the price action on Tuesday saw the AUD/USD pair touch and rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, initiating an initial bullish impulse. However, this upward movement was reabsorbed during the day. Today, we are looking to buy on dips, anticipating another bullish impulse. On the H4 chart, a divergence has been observed, reinforcing our bullish bias. This technical indicator suggests that despite some retracement, the overall trend remains positive, and the market may be poised for further gains. Key Factors Influencing AUD/USD 1. RBA Governor's Statement: Michele Bullock's remarks have underscored the RBA's readiness to adjust interest rates to control inflation, providing a strong bullish signal for the AUD. 2. CPI Concerns: The emphasis on the CPI returning to the 1%-3% target range highlights the RBA's commitment to price stability, further influencing market expectations regarding future monetary policy adjustments. Market Strategy Given the current technical setup and the fundamental backdrop, our strategy involves looking to buy on dips. The rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the observed divergence on the H4 chart support this approach. We anticipate that any pullbacks will provide buying opportunities, with the expectation of a renewed bullish impulse. Conclusion The AUD/USD pair is showing positive momentum following the RBA Governor's comments about potential interest rate hikes if inflation targets are not met. From a technical standpoint, the pair's behavior around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the divergence on the H4 chart support a bullish outlook. As a result, the current market environment presents an opportunity to buy on dips, positioning for another bullish move in the AUD/USD pair.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
USD/CAD: Bearish Setup Anticipated Amid Key Economic DataSince April 17, the USD/CAD pair has been trading within a range, characterized by a pattern of lower highs and lows. Recently, the price bounced from the resistance of the previous high. After the release of the US ISM Services PMI yesterday, the price initially pushed down before stabilizing. Today, the pair is attempting to push higher, but we anticipate a potential new bearish impulse, especially if the upcoming US Unemployment Claims data comes out negative. Key Economic Data and Market Reactions US Economic Data: ISM Services PMI: The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose to a nine-month high in June, initially driving the USD higher. Unemployment Claims: Today's focus will be on the US Unemployment Claims. A negative report could weigh on the USD, reinforcing our bearish outlook for the USD/CAD pair. Canadian Economic Data: Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Cut: The BoC recently delivered a widely expected quarter-point rate cut. This move was already priced in by the market, but it has set the stage for upcoming economic data to take center stage. Canadian Labor Figures: Traders are also eyeing Friday's Canadian labor figures, though the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on the same day is likely to overshadow Canadian employment data. Technical Analysis From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair remains within a range, with the price action exhibiting lower highs and lows. Currently, the price is testing resistance levels formed by previous highs. Despite today's attempt to move higher, the overall technical setup suggests a bearish bias, particularly if key data releases support this outlook. The price has bounced off resistance from previous highs, indicating a struggle to break higher. The lower highs and lows pattern indicates a bearish trend within the range. Potential Bearish Impulse : Given the negative sentiment expected from the upcoming US Unemployment Claims data, a bearish impulse is likely. Given the current technical setup and the fundamental backdrop, our strategy involves looking for a bearish setup. The combination of resistance testing, bearish price patterns, and potential negative economic data from the US supports this approach.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
Inflation vs. Fed Decision: What's Driving Markets Next Week? While closely related, US inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions can impact the market with varying intensity. The Fed aims to avoid surprising the market, whereas inflation is unpredictable. Consequently, the market is confident that the Fed will neither hike nor cut rates at the upcoming meeting. However, inflation forecasts are often inaccurate. According to TradingEconomics, US inflation year-over-year is forecast to have stalled at 3.4%. Last week, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index remained steady at 2.8% in April for the second month in a row. This stability suggests that inflation may persist longer than expected, raising doubts about how soon the Fed can cut interest rates. Traders currently see a 68% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September. Interestingly, today the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 0.25 percentage point cut in borrowing rates for the eurozone, the first decrease since 2019. The ECB’s main refinancing rate is now 4.25%, down from a record high of 4.50%. With this rate reduction, the ECB follows the lead of the Swiss National Bank, Sweden’s Riksbank, and the Bank of Canada. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
by BlackBull_Markets
GBP/JPY Faces Downward Pressure Despite Market 'Yenterventions'On Wednesday, GBP/JPY experienced a slight decline, easing to 200.30 but remaining close to multi-decade highs near 200.75. The pair has drifted into bullish territory as markets seem to dismiss potential "Yenterventions" by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which have yet to be confirmed. Despite speculation about direct intervention in global foreign exchange markets, the Yen continues to weaken. The primary driver behind the Yen's ongoing decline is the substantial interest rate differential between the Yen and other major global currencies. This wide gap in interest rates has kept JPY flows on the short side, as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. Even with repeated warnings from BoJ policymakers, the market continues to sell the Yen, demonstrating limited impact from these interventions. Furthermore, the BoJ's stance and actions have been under scrutiny, as their commitment to maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy contrasts sharply with the tightening cycles observed in other major economies. This divergence in monetary policies exacerbates the Yen's depreciation, as higher interest rates elsewhere attract capital flows away from Japan. From a technical perspective, GBP/JPY shows signs of divergence on the higher time frame charts. This divergence indicates a potential bearish setup, suggesting that the pair might be due for a correction after its recent highs. Technical analysts often use such divergences as early indicators of potential reversals in trend, as they reflect underlying market conditions that may not be immediately apparent in the price action alone. In addition to the technical signals, the broader market sentiment and macroeconomic factors should be considered. The ongoing uncertainty regarding the BoJ's actual interventions and the general risk sentiment in global markets could influence GBP/JPY movements. As such, while the pair currently remains in bullish territory, traders should stay vigilant for signs of a potential reversal, particularly given the mixed signals from both fundamental and technical perspectives. In summary, GBP/JPY has shown resilience near multi-decade highs despite the BoJ's warnings and potential interventions. However, the significant interest rate differential and technical indicators of divergence suggest a possible bearish setup. Investors and traders should closely monitor both the BoJ's actions and broader market trends to navigate this complex trading environment effectively.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Loses Ground Despite Strong Economic Data but..The Japanese Yen continued to weaken on Thursday, even as economic data showed a positive trend. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 2.2% year-over-year in May, up from April's 1.8%, which marked a 26-month low. In addition, Japan’s Retail Sales (YoY) grew 2.4% in April, accelerating from a downwardly revised 1.1% rise in March and surpassing market forecasts of 1.9% growth. This marks the 26th consecutive month of expansion, indicating a sustained period of healthy consumption in Japan. Monetary Policy Implications The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its deeply entrenched monetary policy stance. Should nationwide inflation in Japan decline, it would prevent the central bank from raising interest rates. The significant rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to exert pressure on the Japanese Yen, underpinning the USD/JPY pair. US Dollar Rebound The US Dollar (USD) rebounded ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is due to be released today. However, the decline in US Treasury yields could limit the advance of the US Dollar. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, we are anticipating a rebound for the Yen, particularly if the US Core PCE Price Index shows a negative impact. The footprint analysis reveals several areas of demand on the daily timeframe chart, where the value could find support for a possible reversal. Investors should monitor the upcoming Core PCE data closely, as it will likely influence the near-term direction of both the USD and JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Identifying Bearish OpportunitiesThe EUR/JPY presents a compelling price action scenario with notable opportunities. Recently, the pair encountered strong absorption at the 171.500 level, evidenced by a significant spike indicating substantial seller presence in this price area. This absorption led to a pronounced bearish impulse driving the price down to the 164.000 level. Since then, the price has been on a recovery trajectory, creating an area of imbalance that the market may seek to revisit for potential retests of previous price levels. In addition to these observations, technical analysis reveals a divergence on the RSI, which suggests a potential double top formation. This divergence indicates weakening bullish momentum, strengthening the case for a bearish outlook. Given these conditions, we have positioned our stop loss at 171.000 to protect against any attempts by the price to retest higher absorption levels above the current range. This strategic setup highlights a promising bearish opportunity, supported by the significant absorption at the 171.500 level, the initial bearish impulse around 164.000, and the divergence observed on the RSI. Traders should closely monitor these technical indicators and price levels to capitalize on potential market movements. This analysis underscores the importance of vigilance in managing positions and adjusting strategies as the market evolves.
Short
by FOREXN1
6