[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series] Various FX involved,Mostly..Hello Traders, here we go again!
Let me cover a little bit more on the next topic in this mini series, the various currencies that are involved and a little descriptions about them! Let's begin!
In the vast realm of forex trading, understanding the intricacies of currency pairs is fundamental to success. As a Full-time forex trader with years of live experience, I'm here to shed light on the major and minor currency pairs that dominate the market.
Major Currency Pairs: The Powerhouses of Forex. Normally most retailers trade these pairs as they offer higher liquidity and therefore tighter spreads.
Major currency pairs are the cornerstone of forex trading, encompassing currencies from the world's largest economies. These pairs typically involve the most traded currencies globally and offer high liquidity and stability.
Among the major pairs, the most prominent include:
1. EUR/USD (Euro/US Dollar): Known as the "fiber," this pair represents two of the world's largest economies, the Eurozone and the United States. It's renowned for its liquidity and tight spreads.
2. USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen): Dubbed the "ninja," , the JPY or the YEN, this pair reflects the economic relationship between the US and Japan, two economic powerhouses with distinct monetary policies.
3. GBP/USD (British Pound/US Dollar): Often referred to as "cable," this pair reflects the relationship between the UK and the US, and it's influenced by economic data, geopolitical events, e.g. Brexit developments.
4. USD/CHF (US Dollar/Swiss Franc): Known as the "swissie," this pair is influenced by safe-haven flows, Swiss banking policies, and US economic data.
5. AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/US Dollar): Termed the "aussie," this pair is closely tied to commodity prices, particularly gold and other precious metals, as Australia is a major exporter of raw materials.
6. USD/CAD (US Dollar/Canadian Dollar): Called the "loonie," this pair is heavily influenced by oil prices, given Canada's status as a major oil exporter.
Minor Currency Pairs: Navigating the Market Beyond Majors
While major pairs dominate forex trading, minor currency pairs offer unique opportunities that should not be overlooked as well. These pairs involve currencies from smaller or emerging economies and could be less liquid than their major counterparts.
Notable minor pairs include:
1. EUR/GBP (Euro/British Pound): This pair reflects the relationship between the Eurozone and the UK, and it's influenced by economic data from both regions. In my opinion, this pair quite frequently range and sometimes it is termed as "mean reverting pair".
2. EUR/JPY (Euro/Japanese Yen): Combining two major currencies, this pair offers opportunities for traders seeking exposure to both the Eurozone and Japan.
9. GBP/JPY (British Pound/Japanese Yen): Known for its volatility, this pair attracts traders looking to capitalize on the economic dynamics between the UK and Japan. It is also one of the top favorite for scalpers.
10. AUD/JPY (Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen): Influenced by commodity prices and risk sentiment, this pair is popular among traders seeking exposure to the Australian and Japanese economies.
3. NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar): Known as the "kiwi," this pair reflects economic developments in New Zealand and global risk sentiment.
4. CAD/JPY (Canadian Dollar/Japanese Yen): This pair offers insights into the commodity markets and the economic relationship between Canada and Japan.
In conclusion, mastering major and minor currency pairs is essential for navigating the forex market effectively. Major pairs offer stability and liquidity, while minor pairs provide opportunities for some diversification. By understanding the dynamics of each currency pair and staying informed about global economic developments, traders can unlock the full potential of forex trading and achieve profitable outcomes in this dynamic and ever-evolving market. And of course don't forget about your technical analysis!
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Signing out!
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Forex-trading
WHAT PIVOT POINTS ARE IN SIMPLE TERMSLet's start with the fact that Pivot points are quite an old tool and have been used for a long time. The difference is that in the early days traders had to build Pivot points themselves, but today there are indicators that build these points.
✴️ BASIC CONCEPTS
Pivot points are key points of price chart reversal, i.e. the place from which the price chart is most likely to reverse. Different pivot points have different calculation formulas. This is very similar to Fibonacci, as there are no clear criteria and several possible courses of action.
The following is a list of the most popular calculation of data:
1. Traditional is the very first method of calculation, still popular in the stock exchange;
2. Classic derived from traditional, slight differences in calculations;
3. DeMark is the formula developed by the SAC Capital Advisors fund;
4. Woody the formula heavily references the previous day's closing price;
5. Camarilla derived from the classic one, slight differences in calculations;
6. Fibonacci is based on the Fibonacci formula.
Of course, the points don't always work and they have false signals, but how to filter let's figure it out. There are also Pivot points like this, these are just the ones built using the traditional formula:
✴️ TRADING STRATEGIES
We intentionally did not write each formula, as this information is fully available on the Internet and not everyone is interested in it. The most interesting thing is to learn how to use these indicators in practice, which we will do now.
If we think logically, there can be only two strategies:
Strategy for level breakout;
Strategy for the level rebound.
That's all, there is nothing else to think of.
✴️ LEVEL BREAKOUT STRATEGY
For the breakout of any level, you need to take into account several details:
1. The quality of the breakout, i.e. the presence of an impulsive movement;
2. The trend moves in the direction in which the breakout occurred, i.e. the exclusion of a false breakout;
If these factors are met, then we can say that the breakout is real and it is worth looking for an entry point. Ideally, it should be like this:
Obvious consolidation above the control resistance by pivot points. Stop in this case is placed slightly below the breakout candle, take profits can be stretched by a grid between the Pivot points above. That is, if there was a trade, it would look like this:
✴️ LEVEL BREAKOUT STRATEGY
The strategy for level breakout should also be accompanied by some additional model. For example, it can be a pinbar, RSI divergence and so on. That is, you can choose many variants, the main thing is the presence of a reversal level nearby. In the simplest form, it should look like this:
As you might expect, there are 3 factors to enter the trade and not to buy here would be a much bigger risk than to stay on the sidelines. There is RSI divergence, there is double bottom by candlestick analysis, there is Pivot level, risk/profit ratio is very good. It looks like this:
✴️ CONCLUSION
The pivot point indicator is a great way to find trend reversal points and corrections, for example, you can combine it with Fibonacci levels and find out the end of a correction more precisely. Try it, trade, the indicator is very easy to use and understand. Successful trading and good luck in the markets!
🥇 GOLD - Support retest before further growth Gold may continue its growth amid huge buying interest. Central banks of major powers continue to actively buy the metal. Against the backdrop of the expected reduction of interest rates in the U.S., the potential for gold is also growing. From a technical point of view, for further growth the market-maker needs to liquidate orders below 2150 in order to gather liquidity to continue the upward movement.
Reasons for further growth:
1) High interest in gold worldwide
2) Against the backdrop of the crisis, gold is a safe-haven asset
3) On the background of expectation of rate cuts, interest in buying increases
4) After a strong growth there is no fall. Consolidation is forming
EURUSD: Important Key Levels to Watch 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important key levels to watch on EURUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.0840 - 1.0865 area
Resistance 2: 1.0922 - 1.0943 area
Resistance 3: 1.0964 - 1.1000 area
Support 1: 1.0785 - 1.0805 area
Support 2: 1.0695 - 1.0709 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSD 100% CONFIRM ANALYSISDiscover an enticing Selling opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key resistance area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential downside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
USDJPY: Correction Continues 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Update for USDJPY.
As I predicted earlier, the market nicely respected an underlined blue resistance
and the price nicely dropped from that on Friday.
Analysing a 4H time frame today, I spotted one more bearish confirmation
- a breakout of a support line of a rising parallel channel.
I expect a bearish continuation to 150.55
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USDCAD: Pullback From Key Level 🇺🇸🇨🇦
USDCAD may drop from a key daily structure resistance.
I see 2 strong intraday confirmation on an hourly time frame:
double top formation and a breakout of a support of a rising wedge pattern.
The price may drop at least to 1.3566 support.
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BTCUSD strong sell opportunity big fallThe dynamics of Bitcoin trading are ever changing and the failed breakout on The 1-hour chart is a a stark reminder of the volatility and uncertainty inherent in cryptocurrency markets Whether Bitcoin will bounce back or continue its descent is a question only time will answer For now traders should brace for a potential test of the green support line and prepare their strategies accordingly Stay vigilante keep an eye on the key levels and trade with discipline
FAKE BREAKOUTS IN CRYPTO MARKETSHello traders! 👋
How often has it happened to you that you watch a certain level and wait for its breakout, and when the price breaks this significant level, the price does not tend in the direction of the breakout? After a while, it goes back down, putting your balance at risk of heavy losses. Now let's talk about what a fake breakout is in the crypto market in particular..
Definition And Types 📝
A fake breakout is a breakout of some horizontal or sloping level, after which the price immediately or gradually moves away in the opposite direction of the breakout. The candlestick that broke the level is called a breakout candlestick.
The most common fake breakouts in trading:
A fake breakout of a trendline.
A fake breakout of support or resistance.
A fake breakout of the borders of a technical pattern.
Now that we have a complete layout of possible breakouts, let's take a closer look at them. In the description of the breakout, I will immediately describe the trading principle of this pattern.
Fake Trend Breakout 📊
On the chart of BINANCE:ETHUSD I managed to find a great fake trend breakout during a bull run. The point was that the price started a great growth, then a trend line was formed, from which most traders bought the asset until all the buyers were dropped off the train. But for the others, who understood the principle of fake breakouts, it was, on the contrary, a great opportunity to enter the market.
We see an excellent trend breakout, a well-defined breakout candle. Here any trader has two options:
1. Enter in the direction of the trend. And since we have broken the trend line, the trend has changed to a downtrend.
2. Wait for a possible rebound and return above the trend line.
Let's start with the fact that it is not profitable to enter trades immediately after the trend breakout, as there is a high chance of such confusing cases. Therefore, it is advised to wait for a strong rebound and the continuation of the movement in the direction of the breakout. And what to do if the market has a situation as shown in the picture, i.e., the price breaks through and returns back above the trend line? Everything is even simpler here:
You wait for the return above the trend line.
As soon as it happens, you place a limit order on the upper or lower boundary (depends on the trend direction) of the breakout candle.
You wait for the market to fill up your order.
You place a stop-loss under or over the trend line (depending on the trend direction).
A Fake Breakout of Support or Resistance 📈📉
This type of breakout is the most popular, but it has its own interesting trick. As a rule, in such situations, the price chart hints that it wants to break some significant level and all traders freeze waiting for the breakout. The breakout happens, but there is no profit. This is a classic in the current realities, at least in the cryptocurrency markets.
The principle of trade entry is exactly the same. Only the nature of the breakout differs. By the way, as you can see from the post, and if you look at the charts of coins, the largest and strongest movements are usually accompanied by fake breakouts before them. This is due to the fact that thanks to a fake breakout, most panic traders or those who have extremely short stop loses are dropped off.
Fake Breakout of A Pattern 🔎
This fake breakout is the most rare, but it still occurs. Its essence is that when you see one of the technical analysis figures and, according to its own rules, understand in which direction this figure is most likely to break, it breaks in the opposite direction.
On the BINANCE:SOLUSDT chart, I managed to find a good example of this algorithm. A descending triangle with a flat bottom was clearly drawn on the chart, which, according to the classic technical analysis, should break towards the flat side, but they decided to give us a "haircut".
The algorithm of entering the trade is exactly the same as in the other two cases. But here you can resort to one more variant of entry, in addition to overcoming the top or bottom of the breakout candle. Also, if it is pattern from the classic technical analysis, you can simply enter the trade on the crossing of the pattern.
In cryptocurrency markets, the following picture often occurs:
• An important level is formed.
• The price breaks it and fixes itself above or below it.
• There is a pullback to the previous zone with a small continuation of the reverse movement (fake breakout).
• The price returns to this zone again and starts to consolidate.
• A true breakout occurs.
As a result, the stops of both those who did not earn on shorting and those who did not earn on the long position were accumulated. There is only one recommendation to avoid this case, just tighten the stops and do not be greedy. Remember the main rule, the more tests of the level, the more likely it is to break through. And here is another simple truth: levels are created in order to break them.
In conclusion , fake breakouts are a common phenomenon in trading, particularly in the cryptocurrency markets. They can occur in various forms, such as fake trend breakouts, fake breakouts of support or resistance, and fake breakouts of technical patterns. Understanding these scenarios and adapting appropriate trading strategies can help potentially capitalize on market opportunities. Recognizing and managing fake breakouts can contribute to more successful trading experiences.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
WHAT IS SMART MONEY TECHNIQUE DIVERGENCE?✴️ WHAT DOES SMART MONEY DOING: ACCUMULATING OR DISTRIBUTING?
SMT (Smart Money Technique) Divergence is the divergence of prices of correlated assets or the relationship to inversely correlated assets.
Analyzing the SMT Divergence allows you to determine the institutional structure of the market to determine what the smart money is doing accumulating or distributing.
Currency pairs are easy to analyze using the DXY US Dollar Index. Every price fluctuation must be confirmed by market symmetry. The occurrence of price asymmetry signals the formation of an SMT Divergence and a likely trend reversal.
SMT DIVERGENCE IN ACCUMULATION
SMT DIVERGENCE IN DISTRIBUTION
✴️ WHICH PAIR TO CHOOSE FOR TRADING?
As traders, we need activity in the markets, volatility is what makes trading easier.
The news background is the driver that drives this, which is why the trading day starts with a look at the economic calendar.
If GBP news is scheduled to be released, it does not mean that, for example, GBPUSD will be preferred over EURUSD.
The logic is that closely correlated pairs are likely to move symmetrically. But when SMT divergences are formed, one of the pairs will show strength or weakness, which signals the approaching high volatility on such a pair. GBPUSD updated the high, while EURUSD failed (showed weakness) which results in opening short positions on EURUSD.
As a result, despite the important news on the GBP, EURUSD showed a higher amplitude of movement (volatility).
In the following example, EURUSD updated the high, while GBPUSD failed (showed weakness) that as a result we open short positions on GBPUSD.
AUDNZD: Overbought Market & Pullback 🇦🇺🇳🇿
AUDNZD may finally start a correctional movement,
after a test of a key daily horizontal resistance.
I see a double top formation on a 4H time frame as
an intraday confirmation.
I expect a retracement at least to 1.0835
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EURJPY: Bullish Trend Continues 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY set a new higher high higher close on a daily,
violating a key horizontal resistance.
I will expect a bullish wave after a pullback to a demand zone
based on a broken structure and a rising trend line.
Next goal for buyers will be 166.9
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FTSE100 - Breakout Alert 7,743Yesterday's close on the FTSE 100 was a really good indication that the 7,743 level will likely hold.
The index first breached above this level eight days ago and then quickly retraced below it. After trading below this level for a few days, we're back up above this level.
This signals buying pressure paused and has since resumed. Assuming this level holds on any further retracements, this will signal further trend potential.
EURAUD: Growth Continues 🇪🇺 🇦🇺
EURAUD broke and closed above a resistance line of a horizontal range
on a 4H time frame.
It is a strong bullish signal that follows after a breakout of a key horizontal resistance.
Growth is expected at least to 1.6697 now.
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