MEASURED MOVE USD/CADCharting a measured move to the upside in USD/CAD with substantial upside potential.
Forex-trading
ETHUSD WEEKLY CHARTS (ETHUSD)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis
1. Potential Breakout Above 2835 Resistance
The current analysis assumes Ethereum will reject from the 2835 resistance and drop back to 2146.
However, given the strong upward momentum (+13.46%), ETH could break above 2835 instead of reversing.
A daily close above 2835 could trigger a rally toward 3000+.
2. Support Holding at Higher Levels
Instead of expecting a drop to 2146, ETH may form a higher low around 2400 – 2500, which would confirm bullish continuation.
If it retests 2500 and holds, it could bounce back up toward the resistance and push higher.
3. Volume & Momentum Confirmation
The sharp breakout suggests strong buying pressure.
If volume remains high, ETH could invalidate the resistance level and start a new uptrend.
4. Market Sentiment & Macro Factors
If Bitcoin remains bullish, Ethereum will likely follow suit, pushing above resistance levels.
The broader crypto market’s strength could support a continuation rather than a rejection.
Conclusion
Instead of expecting a double-top rejection at 2835, traders should watch for a potential breakout. If ETH stabilizes above 2500, it could lead to a move toward 3000, rather than a drop to 2146
Btcusd weekly chart (btcusd)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis
1. Potential Continuation Above Resistance (95,300)
The current analysis assumes rejection at 95,300 and a drop toward 78,118. However, a strong breakout above 95,300 could trigger a rally toward 100,000 or higher.
If Bitcoin consolidates above 95,300, it may act as a new support, rather than a rejection zone.
2. Volume Confirmation on the Breakout
The price surged significantly (+9.09%), suggesting strong bullish momentum.
Instead of expecting an immediate rejection, watch for high volume confirming a potential continuation upward.
3. Higher Low Formation Instead of a Drop
The chart expects a fall back to 78,118, but the price may form a higher low around 85,000 – 88,000 before resuming the uptrend.
A retracement to this range (not all the way down to 78,118) would still be healthy in a bull market.
4. Market Sentiment Shift
The sharp upward movement suggests buying pressure rather than an exhaustion move.
If 95,300 is tested again and breaks, it could lead to a parabolic move instead of a reversal
GBPJPY weekly analysis (Gbpjpy)Alternative (Bullish) Analysis
1. Breakout Above Resistance at 190.070
The chart suggests rejection from 190.070, but if price breaks and holds above this level, it could signal further upside momentum.
Instead of a bearish move, price could consolidate above 190.165 and push toward 191.003 or higher.
2. Strong Accumulation in the Support Zone (187.800)
The support area at 187.800 has already been tested multiple times, and each time, price has rebounded.
This could indicate a strong demand zone, meaning buyers are stepping in aggressively.
If buyers push price back to resistance and break through, a new bullish trend may emerge.
3. Liquidity Grab Below 188.000
The previous dip below 188.000 may have been a liquidity grab to stop out weak hands before a bullish reversal.
If this assumption holds, price may now aim for higher highs rather than another rejection from resistance.
4. Market Structure Shift
Instead of forming a lower high at resistance, a higher low formation could suggest an uptrend.
If price finds support around 189.000 instead of dropping to 187.800, a bullish continuation pattern would be confirmed
Xauusd weekly charts gold big fall soon opportunity (XAUUSD) Alternative (Bullish) Analysis
1. Support Strength at 2820
The chart suggests that price may drop to 2820, but this area has shown strong support historically
Instead of further breakdown, a strong bounce from this level could lead to a bullish reversal.
2. Potential False Breakdown
The resistance at 2864 is marked as a selling zone, but if price breaks above it, it could trigger stop-losses for short positions, fueling a rally.
If price consolidates above 2864, it could invalidate the bearish projection.
3. Trend Line Reversal
The chart shows a downtrend, but if price breaks above the descending trend line, it would signal a trend reversal rather than continuation.
A bullish breakout above 2864 could target 2900+ levels.
4. Economic Events Impact
The economic events marked (likely U.S. data releases) could trigger volatility.
If these reports are weaker than expected, gold could rally as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Conclusion
While the original chart suggests a bearish move, there's a strong case for a bullish reversal if the support at 2820 holds and price breaches the 2864 resistance. Instead of shorting aggressively, traders should watch for confirmation signals before committing to a bearish or bullish bias
XAUUSD strong down again 1. Potential for Reversal
The analysis assumes a clear bearish move toward the support area. However, price action may react differently to the resistance zone. If buyers step in, we could see a reversal rather than a continuation downward.
A false breakdown could trap sellers and push the price back up to retest resistance instead.
2. Market Structure Weakness
The chart suggests a Break of Structure (BOS) confirming a downtrend, but the momentum could weaken if volume decreases.
The weak low labeled on the chart could act as a temporary liquidity grab rather than a strong bearish continuation.
3. Economic and Fundamental Factors
Gold is sensitive to economic news, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical events. If a news event favors gold, this technical setup could be invalidated.
USD strength or weakness could shift demand for gold, affecting this price projection.
4. Liquidity Considerations
Support and resistance zones are often areas where liquidity is hunted. Market makers may manipulate price to take out stops before the actual move occurs
XAUUSD strong down opportunity soon 1. Trendline Validity
The current trendline is drawn as a downward channel. However, are there enough touches to validate it as a strong trendline? Sometimes, trendlines can be subjective and might not hold.
2. Support & Resistance Strength
The chart marks a "strong selling zone" at resistance, but does it have historical significance? If this level hasn’t been tested multiple times, it might not be as strong.
The support area is expected to hold, but gold is volatile. Is there a fundamental reason supporting a bounce from there?
3. Alternative Scenarios
What if gold breaks out of the downtrend instead of continuing lower? A breakout above resistance could invalidate the bearish expectation.
Instead of a clean bounce at support, price could consolidate sideways or even break below.
4. Fundamental Factors
Are there any upcoming economic events (such as FOMC meetings, CPI reports, or geopolitical tensions) that could disrupt this technical setup?
AUDUSD STRONG FALL SOON OPPORTUNITY 1. Breakout Above Resistance
The analysis assumes a rejection at the resistance zone, leading to a downtrend. However, if bullish momentum builds, the price could break above resistance, invalidating the sell-off expectation.
2. Support Might Not Hold
The marked support zone might be weak if there is strong bearish sentiment, leading to a potential breakdown rather than a reversal from that level.
3. Range-bound Market
Instead of a clear breakout or breakdown, AUD/USD might stay within a sideways range, consolidating between support and resistance rather than making a decisive move.
4. Fundamental Factors
Economic data releases, central bank policies, or geopolitical events could override this technical setup, causing unexpected price movements in either direction.
Btcusd strong analysis opportunity 1. Breakout Possibility Above Resistance
The analysis assumes a rejection at the resistance zone, but Bitcoin could break above it instead, leading to a bullish continuation rather than a reversal.
2. Stronger Support Holding
The projected drop might not occur if the support zone proves stronger than expected, leading to a bounce instead of a decline.
3. Market Volatility & Fundamentals
Bitcoin often moves based on macroeconomic factors, news, or liquidity shifts. A sudden surge in demand could invalidate this technical setup.
4. Inverse Head & Shoulders Formation
If price action forms a higher low, it could indicate accumulation rather than a sell-off, meaning a push toward new highs instead of a decline
SLIVER STRONG DOWN OPPORTUNITY 1. Resistance Breakout Possibility
The analysis assumes a rejection at resistance, leading to a drop. However, if bullish momentum increases and breaks the resistance, it could trigger a strong rally instead of a decline.
2. Support Weakness
The support area identified might not hold if there's strong bearish pressure. If the price falls sharply, it could break support instead of bouncing, leading to further downside.
3. False Breakout Risk
The projected downtrend might be a false move, where price briefly dips but then rebounds, trapping sellers before reversing to the upside.
4. Market News & Fundamentals
XAUUSD strong bullish analysis opportunity 1. Support May Not Hold – The chart assumes price will respect the support zone and reverse upwards. However, given the strong bearish momentum leading into this level, a breakdown is possible. A break below the support could trigger further declines instead of the expected rebound.
2. Resistance Might Not Be Reached – The analysis predicts a move towards the resistance zone around 2,940, but if selling pressure remains strong, price could stall at the intermediate resistance (around 2,910-2,920) before reversing downward again.
3. Trend Continuation Instead of Reversal – The market is currently in a downtrend, making a continuation of lower lows and lower highs more probable than an immediate bullish reversal. Any short-term bounce might be a liquidity grab before further decline
DXY Swing Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is approaching a
Horizontal support level
Of 105.500 so after the
Retest we will be expecting
A local bullish correction
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
AUD/USD – High Probability Long Setup1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today's AUD/USD trade was a perfect setup combining Fibonacci retracements, institutional order flow, and seasonality trends from Prime Market Terminal. The confluences aligned well for a high-probability long entry.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 0.6380 (Key demand zone + Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 0.6365 (Below market structure)
✅ Take Profit: 0.6429 - 0.6450 (Previous supply zone & liquidity target)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Currently in profit, monitoring for further upside! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Textbook Pullback & Bounce
Price retraced into the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (0.6380 - 0.6365) and bounced perfectly.
The bullish move followed an impulse leg, suggesting smart money accumulation in this zone.
📈 Smart Money & Order Flow – Trading with Institutions
🔹 Order flow from Prime Market Terminal shows major liquidity pools accumulating long positions.
🔹 DMX Data: 43% long vs. 57% short, indicating potential for a reversal as shorts get trapped.
🔹 COT Data: Institutional traders increasing their net long exposure on AUD.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 Seasonal Prime data indicates AUD/USD historically trends higher in late February & March.
📅 Next 3-5 day forecast shows bullish probability, reinforcing the long bias.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Structure & Momentum
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price is trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money flow and against retail sentiment increases trade probability.
🔹 Seasonality trends aligned perfectly, adding confidence in the setup.
🔹 Fibonacci, EMAs, and Prime Market Terminal data provided a precise entry.
🔹 Patience and risk management ensured a well-executed trade.
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for AUD/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I’m looking for further longs on dips, targeting the 0.6450 - 0.6480 zone.
👀 What’s your outlook on AUD/USD? Are you long or short? Let’s discuss in the comments!
🔗 Follow me for more institutional trade setups & contrarian trading ideas!
IS USDJPY HAVE BUY SIDE LEQUIDITY?USDJPY is Sweep Buy Side Lequidity now sell side Lequidity Rest In Upside Market Will Go And Hunt These Lequidities That I Mentioned In Chart Be Patience Be Discipline With Your Strategies Without Knowing Market Behaviors Not Put Your Harder Money.
This Is Analysis Not A Financial Advice DYOR.
XAUUSD strong down opportunity to big falling 1. Resistance Zone Validity – The marked resistance zone appears strong due to multiple rejections. However, if the price breaks above this zone with strong bullish momentum, a further rally may occur instead of the expected drop.
2. Support Strength – The lower support around 2,890 is a key level. However, if buyers aggressively step in before reaching it, the price could consolidate or reverse prematurely, invalidating the expected bearish move.
3. Market Context – Fundamental factors like economic data, interest rates, or geopolitical events could impact gold prices, overriding this technical setup.
4. False Breakdown Risk – Price could briefly dip below intermediate support and then reverse sharply, trapping sellers in a bear trap
Us30 strong bullish opportunity 1. Overly Bullish Bias
The analysis assumes a clean breakout above support and a strong push to resistance.
However, Dow Jones is known for fakeouts—meaning:
A false breakout above resistance could trap buyers before reversing.
A liquidity grab below support might happen before the real move.
2. Weak Confirmation for the Uptrend
There's no clear volume confirmation—breakouts need high volume to be valid.
Price is consolidating near key Fibonacci levels, meaning a reversal is just as likely as a breakout.
A better approach would be waiting for a strong retest and breakout confirmation.
3. Ignoring Key Fibonacci Levels
The chart includes multiple Fibonacci levels but does not integrate them into the projection.
The 2.618 (43,535) and 3.618 (43,446) levels suggest possible retracements before an upward move
Instead of an instant push-up, a dip to test Fibonacci support is likely.
4. Resistance Might Hold Strong
The resistance area is broad, meaning:
A rejection at resistance could lead to a short-term bearish pullback.
The market might range between the two levels instead of moving in a straight line.
Alternative Scenario:
Instead of assuming an instant bullish move:
1. Bearish Trap First: A false breakout above resistance to trap buyers, followed by a drop.
2. Deeper Retest: Price could revisit support or a Fibonacci level before a true breakout.
3. Wait for Volume Confirmation: If resistance breaks with strong momentum, then an entry makes sense
Analyzing the Australian Dollar: A Bearish Outlook for AUD/USDRecent developments in the Australian economy, particularly the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) decision to trim its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, have sparked discussions among traders and analysts regarding the future trajectory of the Australian Dollar (AUD), especially in relation to the US Dollar (USD). This move, while anticipated, has implications that could shape market sentiment in the coming weeks.
RBA Rate Decision: Implications for AUD
The RBA's decision to cut the interest rate signals a cautious stance towards Australia's economic conditions. Although the RBA specified that this rate reduction should not be interpreted as the onset of a broader easing cycle, the act of lowering rates typically suggests underlying concerns about economic growth and inflation. Lower interest rates can diminish the attractiveness of a currency, as they often lead to lower yields on assets denominated in that currency.
In the current environment, where other central banks may be maintaining or raising rates to combat inflation, the RBA’s rate cut could position the AUD unfavorably against its peers. Traders may interpret this move as a reflection of economic weakness, prompting a more bearish sentiment toward the AUD in the forex market.
Technical Analysis: AUD/USD Supply Area and COT Report
Recent technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD pair has triggered a supply area, aligning with insights from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report. The COT report illustrates that retail traders are predominantly holding long positions on the AUD, suggesting a potential mismatch between retail sentiment and market dynamics. When retail traders are heavily long, it can sometimes signal exhaustion in upward momentum, setting the stage for a bearish reversal.
Furthermore, forecasting models indicate the possibility of an emerging bearish trend for the AUD/USD pair. Given these elements confluence—the RBA’s rate cut, the transition into a supply area on the charts, and the current positioning of traders—the market may be primed for a bearish impulse.
In conclusion, the AUD appears to be facing headwinds in the near term. The recent rate cut by the RBA, coupled with retail traders’ long positions and our forecasting indicators suggesting potential bearish momentum, paints a challenging picture for the Australian Dollar. Traders should remain vigilant and prepared to act on signals that suggest a continuation of this bearish trend.
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EUR/USD: Navigating Supply Zones and Future TrendsThis morning, the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.05279, experiencing an initial push before retreating to around 1.04700. As I draft this analysis, the market is exhibiting a rejection spike, indicating volatile trading conditions. Currently, the price is lingering within a supply zone established last week, where we witnessed a notable bearish impulse followed by a sharp bullish reversal leading us to our present levels.
In the absence of significant macroeconomic updates or policy news to influence the currency markets, we will be closely observing any developments surrounding tariffs and the US's stance on European security as they unfold this week.
Additionally, the upcoming PCE inflation figures from the United States, scheduled for release on Friday, will be under the scrutinization of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials, as usual.
Our outlook remains robust, as we anticipate a potential bearish trend in the market. The current price resides within a supply area, supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a bullish sentiment among retail traders. Furthermore, our forecasting indicators suggest a looming bearish trend, consistent with patterns observed over the past decade during this timeframe. We are positioning ourselves for a bearish week ahead.
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EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports and resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Forex: from 500 to 100k: is it possible?
Hello, I am the professional trader Andrea Russo and today I want to answer a question that is frequently asked: "Can you get to 100 thousand euros starting from just 500 euros?" The answer, as we will see, depends on several factors, but above all on the strategy you choose to adopt, on risk management and on the discipline in respecting the investment rules. In this article, we will look at a specific strategy, a sort of "daydream" that, although theoretically possible, also involves a series of risks to be considered very carefully.
Imagine starting with a capital of 500 euros. The strategy that I will explain provides that each successful investment will lead to a 30% gain on the invested capital, while each wrong operation will result in a 10% loss. In essence, if the market goes in your favor, you will earn 30% on the invested capital, but if things go badly, you will lose 10%.
If applied correctly, this strategy could lead to significant earnings over time, but let's make some assessments.
The strategy of earning 30% on each positive trade is based on the "magic of compound numbers", that is, on the fact that, every time you earn, you earn on an increasingly higher basis, thus increasing the invested capital. If you maintain a good rate of winning trades, the capital will grow exponentially over time.
How many earnings do you need to get to 100 thousand euros?
To calculate how many trades it will take to get to 100,000 euros, we can use the exponential growth formula. If we start with 500 euros and want to know how many winning trades at 30% we need to get to 100,000 euros, we can do the following calculation:
500 is the initial capital.
1.30 is the multiplier for each winning trade (30% earnings).
n is the number of trades needed.
Solving the equation, we get that n is approximately 17 consecutive winning trades (approximate). Therefore, you will need to make at least 17 consecutive successful trades, without any losses, to get to 100,000 euros.
Dangers of the strategy
Although the numbers may seem promising, it is important to remember that the market is not predictable and that not all trades will be winners. Furthermore, the 30% gains and 10% losses are hypothetical and do not take into account other factors, such as trading commissions, slippage, and market volatility.
Here are some of the main dangers associated with this strategy:
Volatility and risk of loss: The 10% loss per mistake, even if small, can quickly accumulate in a drawdown period. For example, after 5 losing trades, the capital could be drastically reduced.
Psychological complexity: Maintaining discipline in such a volatile trading environment is one of the most difficult challenges for any trader. There is always a temptation to “catch up” losses or make riskier trades to increase profits, which can undermine the effectiveness of the strategy.
Market Unpredictability: The market is never linear. Winning trades are not guaranteed, and even with a well-structured strategy, it is possible to find yourself in a prolonged drawdown period that puts the solidity of the plan at risk.
Capital Management: The Heart of the Strategy
The real secret of this strategy is not so much in earning 30%, but in protecting your capital and limiting losses. Capital management is essential to any type of trading, and it is what separates successful traders from those who fail.
Here are some key principles for effective capital management:
Position Size: Do not risk more than 1-2% of your capital on any one trade. This allows you to survive even a long period of consecutive losses, without compromising your capital.
Stop loss and take profit: Use stop loss to limit losses and take profit to cash in profits when the market moves in your favor. Don't expect the market to go up forever, but set clear goals.
Controlling emotions: Being able to stay calm, even when facing losses, is essential. Greed and fear are a trader's worst enemies, so keeping a clear mind is the key to long-term success.
Diversification: Don't put all your capital on a single asset or trade. Diversification helps reduce overall risk.
Conclusions
In summary, yes, it is theoretically possible to get to 100 thousand euros starting from 500 euros, but it is not easy at all. Success in trading does not only depend on the percentages of gain or loss, but also on the ability to manage capital and stay calm in difficult phases.
Happy trading.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis:
important supports and resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
XAUUSDdouble top after a while, strong (sob) and trend break with strong bearish engulfing move. i see gold bearish move from here after tight re-test daily fibo 0.5 or pull back as drw on the 4h chart.
what are your plan for next week? feel free to comment if any details.
happy weekend ahead.
Trump-Putin Ukraine Deal: Impacts on Forex
Hello, I am Professional Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important news that is shaking up the global markets: Donald Trump has apparently reached an agreement with Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine, with an agreement that includes Ukraine's exit from NATO. The historic meeting between the two leaders will take place in Saudi Arabia and this move is expected to have a profound impact on the global geopolitical and financial landscape, especially on the Forex market.
Geopolitical and Economic Impact:
The announcement of a possible agreement between Trump and Putin could mark a significant turning point in the war in Ukraine. If Ukraine were to actually leave NATO, it would open a new phase of stability for the region, but at the same time it could create uncertainty on the geopolitical borders. This decision will directly affect the currency markets, in particular the currencies of the countries involved, the main European currencies and the US dollar.
In the current context, the war in Ukraine is one of the main causes of economic instability worldwide. Any end to hostilities could lead to a reduction in economic sanctions and a revival of trade flows between Russia, Europe and the United States. These changes will be closely monitored by traders, as any geopolitical fluctuations could affect the dynamics of currencies globally.
Implications for Forex:
A possible agreement between Trump and Putin could have a direct impact on Forex, especially on the following currencies:
Russian Ruble (RUB): A peace agreement would lead to a possible revaluation of the ruble. International sanctions against Russia could be gradually removed, boosting the Russian economy and supporting demand for the ruble in global markets.
Euro (EUR): Ukraine's exit from NATO could lead to greater stability for European countries involved in the conflict, but it could also reduce the risk associated with energy and military security. In the short term, the Euro could appreciate against riskier currencies, but the situation could vary depending on the political reactions in Europe.
US Dollar (USD): The dollar could react positively if the Trump-Putin deal is seen as a stabilization of international relations, but it will also depend on how the Federal Reserve responds to evolving economic conditions. A slowdown in the conflict could reduce the uncertainty that has pushed markets towards the dollar as a safe haven.
British Pound (GBP): The pound could benefit from a possible de-escalation of the crisis, but again, domestic political factors in the UK, such as its post-Brexit negotiations, will continue to influence the currency.
What to expect in the coming days:
News of the Trump-Putin meeting in Saudi Arabia will be watched closely by the markets. If the details of the deal are confirmed, we can expect an immediate reaction in the currency markets. Forex is likely to see increased volatility in the currency pairs tied to the nations involved, with shifts in capital flows that could reflect a new perception of risk or stability.
Conclusions:
In summary, the Trump-Putin deal could be a turning point in the war in Ukraine and have a significant impact on financial markets, especially Forex. Investors will need to carefully monitor geopolitical developments and prepare for possible currency fluctuations. With the end of hostilities, stability could return to favor some currencies, but the situation remains delicate and constantly evolving.
