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Decoding the BoJ's Role: Impact on GBP/JPY ReversalThe GBP/JPY experienced a notable turnaround at the 200.500 level following reports indicating potential direct intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the foreign exchange (FX) markets. This intervention, suspected to have occurred twice within a two-day span earlier this week, aimed to bolster the beleaguered Japanese Yen (JPY). Disclosure reports from the BoJ revealed a significant overspending on uncategorized financing operations, amounting to approximately 9 trillion Yen. This substantial deviation from expected financial activities strongly suggests the likelihood of direct market intervention in support of the Yen. However, official statements confirming or denying such actions have yet to be issued. Our analysis anticipates a retesting of the aforementioned price zone, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the GBP/JPY.
Short
by FOREXN1
2
USDJPY Looking for correction ??The USD/JPY pair has completed the impulsive wave sequence labeled as 1-2-3-4-5 and is now entering a corrective phase, typically labeled as A-B-C. The price has already formed waves A and B and is currently progressing towards wave C, which is expected to extend to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Additionally, the formation of a head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential reversal or a downward correction in the price. Here’s a written summary of the analysis: USD/JPY Technical Analysis: - Impulsive Waves: Completed (1-2-3-4-5) - Corrective Waves: In progress (A-B-C) - Wave A: Completed - Wave B: Completed - Wave C: Targeting 1.618 Fibonacci extension Pattern Analysis: - Head and Shoulders pattern observed, indicating a potential reversal or correction.
Short
by joestar95
1
XAUUSD Analysis (10th May 2024) Market Analysis PT1/2 (10th May 2024) XAUUSD Analysis On the 1 hour timeframe, price has finally broken out of the 3 day range we have formed. As price is driving towards higher prices on Gold, Price has actually created a 1 hour Bullish FVG as well as a Bullish OB. There are 2 scenarios that could play out. 1) Price retest into the FVG and continues bullish after a quick retest, giving us a 5 minute Change of Character to the upside. 2) Price retraces deeper into the 1 hour OB. IF this happens i will wait for a 15 minute CHOCH before looking for potential buy entries.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by CallistoFX
✅GOLD Prices Rebound Amidst Speculation on Interest Rate OutlookOn Monday, the price of gold experienced a rebound as market participants deliberated over the trajectory of interest rates in light of recent US employment indicators. According to Friday's data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated that 175,000 individuals secured employment in April, falling below market expectations. Of particular note was the deceleration in wage inflation, with Average Hourly Earnings exhibiting a decline both on an annual and monthly basis compared to economists' projections. The current price of gold remains confined within a range-bound area or rectangle, with the preceding rebound observed around the $2288 mark potentially manifesting upon a retest of the upper boundary of this channel, with potential for further expansion. The underwhelming employment data suggests a potential for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to initiate interest rate cuts earlier than previously envisaged. This prospective scenario heightens the appeal of gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal. We anticipate a bullish continuation, adopting a scalping approach characterized by higher potential rewards but a lower win rate.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Outlook: Factors Influencing Near-Term Price ActionThe EUR/USD exhibited a modest bearish tone and closed in negative territory during Tuesday's trading session. Despite attempts to recover, the pair struggled to regain traction after reaching a peak of 1.0800 in recent days. Looking ahead, today's economic calendar appears relatively quiet, with no high-impact data releases scheduled. However, market participants will keep a close eye on any commentary from Federal Reserve officials, as their remarks could potentially sway the pair's direction later in the day. Moreover, it's worth considering the seasonal tendencies that have historically influenced the EUR/USD movement. Over the past years, there has been a consistent pattern of price decline for the pair until the end of the month. This seasonal effect could further weigh on the EUR/USD in the near term. Furthermore, insights from the Commitments of Traders (COT) report reveal a notable shift in positioning among hedge funds and money managers. There has been a noticeable increase in short positions, suggesting a prevailing sentiment favoring bearish continuation. In light of these observations, there is a growing inclination to implement a more aggressive stop-loss strategy to manage potential downside risks effectively.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: We were expecting it to be a quiet day, but in true unconventional market fashion we actually had a blinding day on the markets, especially gold. Early session we saw the break above which confirmed the long trade, Excalibur activated, the red box strategy agreed, and we got not 1 but 2 fantastic long trades on gold. To top it off, tap and bounce on the nose from the reaction point highlighted on the chart giving a move down, but only into support. So, what now? We would like to see this support level below hold around 2320-15 region, and if so, would like to see this attempt that 2335-40 region before we decide whether the set up is right for the short trade. Resistance now stand at 2330-35 which will need to break to go higher. Otherwise, we'll look for the setup tomorrow and wait for Excalibur to confirm. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
2
“DRAGON” PATTERN IN TRADINGAs we dive into studying price action, we can't help but be intrigued by the interesting names given to various patterns. Names like "Two Rivers" and "Shooting Star" not only sound captivating but also accurately describe the patterns they represent. In this post, we'll introduce you to another powerful pattern known as the Dragon. This pattern, belonging to the reversal patterns, is not only commonly found in the Forex market but is also highly effective. 💡 HOW THE DRAGON PATTERN IS FORMED? The pattern has known points, without which the formation is not possible: HEAD LEFT FOOT RIGHT FOOT HUMP TAIL Each of the points, should be placed in the specified place, without distortions and various force majeure. The Dragon pattern is a reversal pattern in the forex market. In order to successfully trade the Dragon formation, it is crucial to have a clear understanding of the important data associated with it. 📍 Firstly, in a downtrend, you must identify the last local lower high, which will serve as the head of the Dragon pattern. Subsequently, the market will continue to decline and reach a specific level that it cannot surpass, marking the left foot of the formation. 📍 The Dragon's Hump is then formed through a corrective movement from point 1 to point 2. It is essential that this correction does not exceed 38.2% to 50%. Following this correction, the market should attempt to retest the previous lows, ideally failing to do so. This failure indicates a potential shift in momentum, allowing for a buying opportunity. 📍 Drawing a trendline from the head to the hump serves as a signal line. Once this trendline is broken, the Dragon pattern is confirmed, signaling a long position entry. 📍 Setting a Stop Loss below the dragon's feet helps to manage risk, while the first target is set at the level of the hump and the second target at the head. Take Profit levels can be set at these targets to maximize profitability. Another possible scenario is when the bears successfully bring the market below the initial support level. Personally, I find this detail somewhat undermining to the pattern. In such a situation, it can be interpreted as follows: if the bears succeed in pushing the market to new lows, it indicates that they may not be as weak as they seemed at first, which encourages caution in buying. However, if the price returns above the last local low and creates a false breakout with a bullish divergence, it can be considered a strong signal. The bullish reversal pattern Dragon has its counterpart in the bearish reversal pattern known as the Inverted Dragon. Just like its bullish counterpart, the Inverted Dragon follows similar patterns and characteristics, so there is no need to describe it separately. As mentioned earlier, these patterns are named for their resemblance to real-life examples, and I have included a chart overlay in the screenshot below for reference. It is essential to have a strategy and a set of rules when considering any reversal combination in forex market. As many books suggest, patterns often form at the bottom of the market. Although the market bottom may shift quickly, it is important to stay disciplined and adhere to the rules. The concept of identifying the market bottom involves recognizing key levels where the market has previously rebounded. If a price has bounced off a certain level in the past, there is a higher probability of it happening again in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to look for potential patterns, such as the Dragon pattern, when the price nears a support level (for bullish patterns) or a resistance level (for bearish patterns). 📒 TO AVOID MISIDENTIFYING PATTERNS, IT CAN BE HELPFUL TO FOLLOW THESE GUIDELINES: 1️⃣ Start by identifying the current trend movement. In a downtrend, look for a dragon pattern, while in an uptrend, look for an inverted dragon pattern. 2️⃣ Remember that price reversals are more likely to occur at important levels. Without a significant level, there may not be a reversal. 3️⃣ Pay attention to the hump of the dragon pattern, ensuring it does not exceed 38.2% to 50% of the distance from the head to the left foot. 4️⃣ Consider the length of the right foot, which should be 5-10% of the distance from the left foot. Ideally, the right foot should be higher, but it can also be lower. 5️⃣ If there is a trendline breakout, take your time before opening a trade. Assess the potential gain and compare it to the expected loss. If everything checks out, go ahead and take the trade. 📊 USING THE DRAGON PATTERN IN TRADING As you can see, identifying the pattern is not difficult at all. Remember the key rules: The hump should be between 38.2% and 50% of the head, indicating left foot movement. The right leg should be aligned as closely as possible with the left foot. Most importantly, pay attention to the pattern at significant levels. The appearance of a pattern does not guarantee that the trend will reverse, but it is considered a strong signal. It is important to make sure that the pattern is formed on a sufficient amount of data. Take into account other factors such as fundamental analysis and the market context. ✅ BOTTOM LINE The Dragon pattern is widely recognized as a strong indicator of a trend reversal, making it a valuable tool for traders looking to capitalize on market movements. While it can be a helpful guide for entering trades in line with the anticipated trend, it is important to remember that no technical indicator is foolproof and a pragmatic approach is always advised. In addition to the suggested rules, it is essential to incorporate your own money management strategies to ensure profitable implementation of the Dragon pattern. Your feedback and any further perspectives are welcomed. Thank you for your time and input. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
Education
by Lingrid
1
AUDJPY Analysis (2nd May 2024) AUDJPY Analysis On the 1 Hour timeframe, price has rejected off a high probability orderblock and coming lower after a strong rejection off the orderblock. There are 2 scenarios i am looking at: 1) Price comes down and breaks the most recent higher low at 102.204 to look for a break and retest on the 1 hour to continue shorting. 2) price to respect the 1 hour OB and create a 5/15 minute change of character before looking for confirmations to long. It is important to take into account what the JPY Basket does as it tells us how strong or weak the yen is.
by CallistoFX
XAUUSD Analysis (1st May 2024) Market Analysis PT1/2 (1st May 2024) XAUUSD Analysis On the 4 hour timeframe, we have confirmed a 4 hour MSS with price closing very bearishly on the 4 hour timeframe. Dropping to the 1 hour timeframe, price action here has created a 1 hour OB, along with a 1 hour FVG just right under it. Looking for price to retrace during asia session into the FVG/OB before looking for a 5/15 minute CHOCH to look for shorts. This week is Price action will be alittle messy due to ADP and NFP coming up. So do trade carefully!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by CallistoFX
1
XAUUSD - Long Signal $2300/ozGold is beginning to trend downward as the dollar shows a slight uptick in strength at the outset of the EUR/LON session. While the dollar index remains within the range of 105 to 106, a breakthrough above 106.100 or 106.200 could signal further gains for the USD in the upcoming wave. However, it's worth noting that we've been witnessing high timeframe consolidation for some time now. Personally, I'm eager for a significant uptrend in gold (XAU) before any subsequent strengthening of the dollar prompts a downward correction once more. The $2300 mark stands as a notable point of convergence in this scenario.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
1
MarketBreakdown | GBPUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, EURNZD Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list. 1️⃣ #GBPUSD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸 The market is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. After the price updated the low, we see quite an extended correctional movement. The pair is currently approaching a key horizontal resistance. The next bearish wave may initiate from the underlined structure. 2️⃣ #USDCAD daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇦 Trading in a strong bullish trend, the price formed a falling wedge pattern. We see a test of a key support at the moment. Our strong bullish confirmation will be a bullish breakout of the resistance of the wedge and a candle close above. It may trigger a strong bullish reaction. 3️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭 The pair is trading in a strong bullish trend within a huge rising wedge pattern. The price is currently stuck around a key horizontal daily resistance. Its bullish breakout will be our strong confirmation to buy. 4️⃣#EURNZD daily time frame 🇪🇺🇳🇿 The price formed a head and shoulders pattern. We see a breakout attempt of its neckline at the moment. A daily candle close below that will give us a strong bearish signal. A bearish movement will most likely continue then. Do you agree with my market breakdown? ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
1