INTUITION IN TRADINGWhy is it that when you feel that you should buy and you buy, the price goes down, and when you feel that you should sell, but do not open an order, the price immediately and sharply goes down? Murphy's Law? What should I do with my inner voice? Should I tell it to shut up or listen to it?
In various sources, one can often find completely opposite opinions about the role of intuition in trading. Some say that only a systematic approach can bring success, while others, on the contrary, claim that it is impossible to achieve significant results without a "sixth sense".
Who is right? Many people are interested in this question and we can make the most adequate conclusion: "Intuition is worth using, but only after you have gained experience of more or less successful trading within a year or two".
Let's think for a second. How can a person who has no experience as a construction worker take a look at a house and immediately realize that there is "something wrong" with it? You can't. The person simply does not have enough experience, he is too poorly informed about the subject to make any judgments.
There is a wonderful book by Malcolm Gladwell called Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking. It deals in great detail with the "Thin-slicing Theory", what we call Intuition. I suggest you read it. So how to apply intuition in trading? The answer is simple.
At first, gain experience by trading according to a mechanical system, without using any judgments like "I feel it, we are about to fall" or something like that. And only then, when you have an insight, be sure to check it with the help of technical analysis. Having found confirmation of your intuitive guess, you can already take some actions.
In fact, there is even a book written on this topic, it is called "Trading from Your Gut". It is written by one of the "Turtles", Curtis Faiths. There is not so much information in this book specifically on the use of intuition, but there are a couple of useful thoughts.
The less fear, the better intuition works.
Perhaps this is the reason why it is so easy to make thousands of dollars on a demo account and so difficult on a real one. When trading on a demo, we release the full potential of our brain, because nothing limits our freedom, because the money is virtual and there is no fear of losing it.
Forex-trading
EURCHF: Buy opportunity at the bottom of the 1 year Channel DownEURCHF has turned bearish on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 31.608, MACD = -0.007, ADX = 35.082) but reached the bottom of the 1 year Channel Down pattern. Considering that the 1D RSI got oversold last week and rebounded above 30.000 this week, this constitutes a technical buy opportunity. We are aiming for the 1D MA50 (TP = 0.94500).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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GOLD price analysis strategy todayGold prices begin to fall, Spot gold fell from a high of $2,088 in late December amid a stronger U.S. dollar that took it to Wednesday's low of $2,031, from where it was struggling regain recently lost ground. The mid-December high of $2,048 is currently being tested, a move above this level would target the December 21 high, Friday and Tuesday lows at $2,055 to $2,059.
Support lies at Wednesday's low of $2,031.
💡December Bank of England Survey Reveals Divergent Views The most recent survey from the Bank of England Decision Maker Panel (DMP) in December is likely to maintain a division within the committee regarding the outlook on interest rates.
Those leaning towards a more cautious approach will highlight the ongoing decline in inflation expectations. The 1-3 year ahead expectations, calculated on a three-month average basis, dropped by 4.3% and 3.1%, compared to the previous figures of 4.6% and 3.2%, respectively.
On the contrary, proponents of a firmer monetary stance will emphasize the persistent lack of advancement in wage growth. Year-ahead expectations for wage growth increased by 0.1 percentage points to reach 5.2%.
Additionally, Catherine Mann, a dissenting member with a hawkish stance who advocated for a 25 basis points hike in the December meeting, had previously highlighted concerns about price pressures originating from firms' expectations. This aspect was a crucial factor in her decision to vote in favor of higher interest rates.
AUDUSD: Market analysis strategy on I chart todayThe Australian Dollar (AUD) tries to end a losing streak on Friday. The AUD/USD pair is facing bearish pressure, even as the US Dollar (USD) lacks clear direction and China's Caixin Services PMI improved in December. Market Sentiment Weakness and widespread commodity price declines have both played a role in the Australian Dollar's weakness. Australia's Judo Bank's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data shows a decline in business activity across both the services and manufacturing sectors, further highlighting vulnerabilities of the Australian Dollar. The Services PMI specifically showed the fastest contraction in the services sector since the third quarter of 2021. However, Matthew De Pasquale, Economist at Judo Bank, suggested that a slowdown in the economy Australia has not yet gained momentum. The US Dollar Index (DXY) holds a steady trend, showing a slight tilt towards positive sentiment and potential profits. However, a pullback of recent advances in United States (US) Treasury yields could put some pressure on the Greenback. Furthermore, upbeat jobs data released on Thursday could strengthen support for the US Dollar.
XAUUSD: Strategy for predicting gold price todayGold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to capitalize on modest intraday gains and retreated to the lower end of the day's trading range during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) attracted some buying activity and traded above a one-week high reached the previous day amid doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates soon ( Fed). This is underpinned by a further rise in US Treasury yields, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding yellow metal.
GOLD BUY NOWFrom a technical perspective, the all-time high closing, around the $2,077-2,078 region printed last Wednesday, now seems to act as an immediate barrier ahead of the $2,088 zone, or the multi-week high. Some follow-through buying should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $2,100 round-figure mark. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAU/USD further towards retesting the record peak, around the $2,144 area set in early December.
GOLD BUY NOW 2075
TARGET. 2080
TARGET. 2086
A quick Top Down Analysis on the EURUSDHelo students and traders.
Here is a quick top down analysis on the EURUSD.
By way of summary, we have come to the realisation that this pair is Bearish on the Monthly, Bearish on the Weekly, Bullish on the Daily and 4 hour, while holding a clear bearish perspective on the 1 hour time frame.
Because we believe in trading the smaller timeframe in the direction of the larger timeframe, we will want to hold on to the perspectives of the Weekly and the 1 hour charts, and will be looking to trade this pair bearish.
Find out how we arrived at this perspective...
XAUUSD: Gold price strategy todayGold prices (XAU/USD) have extended their correction but consolidation is likely due to light trading activity. More broadly, precious metals could continue on a positive trajectory as bets in favor of an early Federal Reserve rate cut are firming as labor market conditions ease. and a clear downward trend in core inflation. This reduces the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal and weakens the US Dollar, on which the metal is priced.
Gold prices are expected to end 2023 with an outstanding gain of more than 13.50%. Deepening expectations of the Fed starting to cut interest rates from March 2024 will also continue to attract optimism in Gold prices going into 2024. Further action for Gold prices will be guided by the Index. US ISM Manufacturing and Nonfarm Employment PMI numbers for November.
Levels discussed on 1st livestream of 2024January 2nd
DXY: Could retrace to 102.50, but looking for DXY to trade lower to 100.60 support
NZDUSD: Buy 0.6325 SL 30 TP 80
AUDUSD: Wait for reaction at 0.69 (Buy 0.6920 SL 30 TP 90)
USDJPY: Sell 140.40 SL 40 TP 150
GBPUSD: Reaction at 1.2820 (Buy 1.2830 SL 20 TP 70)
EURUSD: Sell 1.0980 SL 30 TP 80
USDCHF: Wait a bit, Sell 0.8530 SL 30 TP 60
USDCAD: Break resistance, Buy 1.3268 SL 25 TP 50
Gold: Bullish, Above 2077 could trade up to 2088
GBPUSD Trending strategies todayThe GBP/USD pair posted modest losses in early Asian trading on Tuesday. The modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) brings some support to the major pair. At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading near 1.2725, down 0.04% on the day.
After the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) final meeting of the year in December, Fed officials kept interest rates steady for the third straight month and signaled a series of rate cuts in 2024. when inflation falls faster than estimated. Traders are betting on sharp interest rate cuts, starting in March. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 88% decline in March.
Data released on Friday showed the US Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 46.9 in December from 55.8 in November, weaker than estimates of 51.0. Market participants will get more cues from the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. This number is predicted to increase by 163K in December compared to 199K previously.
HOW TO IDENTIFY AN ASCENDING WEDGE AND A DESCENDING WEDGEThe wedge pattern is a popular chart formation that traders use to identify potential reversals in the markets. This pattern is formed from a series of higher highs and higher lows in an ascending wedge or lower highs and lower lows in a descending wedge. As the pattern narrows, the price action becomes more compressed, eventually leading to a breakout that can result in a significant move in the opposite direction. In this article, we will look at how to identify and trade this pattern.
How to identify an ascending wedge and a descending wedge
Rising wedge
An ascending wedge is a bullish pattern that forms when price is sandwiched between an uptrend line and a horizontal or slightly upward sloping resistance line.
To identify an ascending wedge:
a. Draw a trend line connecting the lower lows.
b. Draw a resistance line connecting the upper highs.
c. The wedge should look like a symmetrical or slightly expanding formation.
Downward wedge
A descending wedge is a bearish pattern that forms when price is sandwiched between a falling trend line and a horizontal or slightly downward sloping support line.
To identify a descending wedge:
a. Draw a trend line connecting the upper highs.
b. Draw a support line connecting the lower lows.
c. The wedge should look like a symmetrical or slightly expanding formation.
How to trade a wedge
Rising Wedge
When trading a rising wedge pattern:
a. Place a buy stop order above the upper resistance line, aiming for a return to or beyond the initial point of the wedge.
b. Place a stop loss below the lower trend line to minimize potential losses.
c. Exit the trade when price reaches the target or when the pattern does not move beyond it as expected.
Downward wedge
When trading a descending wedge:
a. Place a sell stop order below the lower support line, aiming for a return to or beyond the initial point of the wedge.
b. Place a stop loss above the upper trend line to minimize potential losses.
c. Exit the trade when price reaches the target or when the pattern does not break as expected.
Risk Management
Trading wedge patterns can be profitable, but it is important to manage risk effectively. Consider using a fixed percentage of your account for each trade and set strict stop loss orders to protect your capital. Also, remember that no pattern is foolproof and the market can sometimes give false breakouts.
Conclusion
When properly identified and traded, wedge patterns can provide valuable trading opportunities. By following the steps outlined in this article, you can improve your ability to identify these patterns and capitalize on them. However, always remember that trading involves risk, and a thorough understanding of market dynamics and risk management is essential for success.
SIX HABITS TO ADOPT IN 2024Trading in the financial markets can be both rewarding and challenging. However, it's essential to recognize and overcome certain bad habits that can hinder your success and well-being. In this article, we will discuss six common habits that traders should avoid and provide actionable steps to improve their mindset, performance, and overall happiness.
1. Quit Complaining – Embrace a Positive Attitude
Successful traders do not wallow in self-pity or exaggerate their problems. If you find yourself complaining about your trading issues, seek help from a mentor or support group to resolve your concerns. A positive attitude will not only improve your trading results but also create a more positive atmosphere around you.
2. Monitor Your Vices and Indulgences
Traders often resort to unhealthy habits, such as excessive alcohol consumption or overeating, as a way to cope with stress and disappointment. Be mindful of your weaknesses and replace harmful habits with healthier alternatives that promote well-being and mental clarity.
3. Focus on the Present Moment – Avoid Future-Tripping
Fear often stems from worrying about the future. To avoid this trap, concentrate on the tasks and decisions at hand. Focusing on the present moment will give you a sense of calm, security, and fulfillment that will ultimately improve your trading performance.
4. Continue Learning and Growing
Once you achieve success in trading, don't become complacent or stop learning. Continue developing your skills and exploring new trading strategies. Learning new techniques or refining existing ones will keep you engaged, motivated, and adaptable in an ever-changing market environment.
5. Cultivate Strong Social Connections
As a full-time trader, it's easy to become isolated and withdrawn from social interactions. Make an effort to maintain and build meaningful relationships with family, friends, and colleagues. Strong social connections will provide emotional support, reduce stress, and contribute to your overall happiness and well-being.
6. Practice Gratitude and Kindness
Traders who experience negative emotions, such as envy or resentment, can benefit from practicing gratitude and acts of kindness. By expressing gratitude, volunteering, or offering compliments, you will improve your own happiness while fostering a positive atmosphere around you.
Conclusion
By recognizing and overcoming these six common bad habits, traders can significantly improve their well-being, trading performance, and overall happiness. Embrace a positive mindset, maintain healthy habits, focus on the present moment, continue learning and growing, cultivate strong social connections, and practice gratitude and kindness. By doing so, you will be well on your way to achieving success in the financial markets and leading a fulfilling life.
In 2024, may traders who have yet to find success in the market be blessed with the wisdom to learn from their mistakes and the courage to embrace new strategies. May they cultivate a growth mindset, forging strong connections, and practicing gratitude and kindness. As the year unfolds, let their resilience and determination guide them towards a prosperous and fulfilling future in the world of trading.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
EURUSD: Structure Based Trade Explained 🇪🇺🇺🇸
EURUSD is testing a wide daily horizontal demand area.
The price is currently ranging on an hourly time frame.
A bullish breakout of the resistance of the range - an hourly candle close above
1.1085 - will be your solid bullish confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated at least to 1.1106 level then.
If the price drops lower, the setup will become invalid.
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THE ESSENCE OF WYCKOFF'S METHODRichard Demille Wyckoff is a trader whose career coincided with the famous traders of the time: Jesse Livermore, Charles Dow and JP Morgan, W. Gann and others. All of these men are widely recognized for their terrific trading books. Wyckoff became famous for his insight, his trading method. Wyckoff has been involved with the financial markets since he was a teenager, and this is what gave him an understanding of how the market works.
To become a successful trader, it is not enough to have good theoretical knowledge. Experience is the key to your success. That is why Wyckoff recommended to follow the tape for weeks to intuitively understand what is happening on the market.
THE ESSENCE OF THE WYCKOFF METHOD
The essence of Richard Wyckoff's idea is that in order to gain a large position in the market and not to move the price with large orders, a professional market maker needs to balance supply and demand. The equilibrium is observed when the price is in a narrow range of consolidation. After a position is gained, the price is pushed out of the trading range.
WYCKOFF'S THREE LAWS
The trading method is based on three laws:
Supply and Demand. Wyckoff believed that the price of each asset goes up or down only by an overabundance of one thing. For example, the price goes up if demand exceeds supply. Simply put, if a whole city decides to buy 10 tons of apple, and the apple is in limited supply from the suppliers, they will start to raise the price because of the high demand.
Cause and Effect. When an asset starts to rise in price - this is the consequence, and the previous news or a small price range this is the cause. When the price is between support and resistance zones for the X amount of time (cause), then a trend will start in the short term (effect).
Effort vs. Result. A large volume traded, for example, during one day is an effort, while a price change is a result. Example: If a large player has spent a lot of money buying up most of the sell orders, and the price is still standing, it means that the effort spent did not bring the expected results.
ACCUMULATION AND DISTRIBUTION
The basic principle of trading is to see the equilibrium of supply and demand in time. Consolidation (also called range, zone, rectangle, sidewall, etc.) is a trading range of prices where accumulation or distribution takes place. Wyckoff's method is the use of accumulation and distribution phases.
Accumulation is the formation of a trading zone where orders for further movement (price reversal) are accumulated within a certain time. Here "smart" money keeps the price at approximately the same level, where they buy up most of the market orders in order to sell (distribute) them at a higher price.
Distribution is the formation of a trading zone where orders are distributed for further movement (price reversal) within a certain time. Similarly, to accumulation, smart money sells out all its previously accumulated assets in order to benefit from it.
Consolidation is the place where the previous movement with the outweighing force of demand or supply stops and relative equilibrium finally occurs. This trading zone is a great time to make money, because it is the place where preparation for an explosive bull rally or bearish fall takes place. Consolidation can be considered as a place of refueling for a car, if not refueled, there will be nothing to drive on - it is the accumulated force, the reason that creates the subsequent movement. The longer the refueling takes place, the farther one can go. Therefore, after a long trading range, we should expect an equally long upward or downward movement.
On the way to move from one zone to the opposite zone, the price does not fall in one go, it always makes pullbacks and stops, which are called accumulation.
After his death, Wyckoff left trading methods for such zones. The principle is quite simple: Before the formation of a sideways trading range, sales peak and the accumulation phase begins. During the whole time the price is in this range, a large player buys up most of the sell orders. The price goes beyond the support and resistance zones, then reverses and the growth phase begins. At the end of the growth phase, the buying peaks. Then it is the same for the distribution phase.
ACCUMULATION
In the accumulation phase, professional traders buy up sell orders from uninformed traders. Usually it happens on the news, from all channels they say that shares of some company will fall, it is waiting for almost bankruptcy, everything is bad, etc. In Forex, various negative news on unemployment and similar. At this moment people start to get rid of long positions, and traders start to short the instrument. Wyckoff supporters realize that it is worth waiting for the price drop to stop and they should get ready to look for an entry point to buy the asset.
Phase A and phase E are trend price movements, the phases between them are the trading range, which is analyzed by the Wyckoff trading method. Horizontal lines are support (at the bottom) and resistance (at the top) of the trading range. Do not consider them as exact lines, they are approximate ranges, in which the big one turns the price back to sideways.
DISTRIBUTION
Everything is similar to buying in the accumulation phase, only now those assets bought earlier should be sold off. This is just the basis, the main rules of trading according to the Wyckoff method in trading. Richard Wyckoff himself applied it on stocks and on daily charts (although he did not use charts, only tape). But nowadays, the time of algorithms, you can trade on any timeframe and any instruments. The method works well on the minute. It should be understood that there can be many phase patterns, the trading range can be different, the culmination with large candles and small, the volume is high and not very high, tests after the exit from the zone may or may not be. It all depends on who the big player is, when the accumulation or distribution occurs, what instrument you are watching and what timeframe is on the chart.
Trading will be quite successful if you strictly follow your trading strategy according to the Wyckoff method, written on paper, competently determine the level of risk and position size. Observe the chart, find consolidations, see what happened inside and where the price went. You need to analyze every step, every movement. Big money thinks everything through, every price action on the chart is not accidental. And remember that whatever the big money does, it always leaves its traces.
Good luck in trading!
XAUUSD Strategy to analyze gold price trends todayGold prices (XAU/USD) are on a steady trend, positioned for their best year in the past three years, driven by various global economic factors and geopolitical tensions.
Although spot gold fell slightly early Wednesday, it remained near a two-week high. Gold futures prices, in turn, are rising, making them likely to post strong annual gains. This performance reflects gold's enduring appeal in uncertain times.
It broke above the 2067.00 minor resistance level, which could now act as new support. The next key resistance level is 2149.00. Staying above the key support level of 1987.00 reinforces this bullish sentiment.
XAUUSD: Gold technical analysis todayGold, the longtime safe-haven asset, experienced a notable rally, surpassing the psychological barrier of $2,060 an ounce on Tuesday. This increase is likely due to a combination of factors, with market participants closely monitoring developments in the US economy, especially with regard to inflation and possible cuts. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
From a technical standpoint, . The previous resistance area that limited gains at 2050-2060 has now turned into support. I recommend looking for buying opportunities on a pullback to retest the previously broken resistance level, which is also confluent with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and the ascending trendline acts as cross support for gold. I see resistance around 2090 as the first potential target and also a test of the all-time high
GBPUSD Bullish Breakout: A breach of the 1.2500 support could le Pound-to-dollar exchange rate faces headwinds as US dollar strengthens on inflation data in November. Report reveals consumer price index (CPI) up 0.1% and a 0.3% increase in the core CPI, has caused the market to reassess expectations for an impending rate cut. As the Federal Reserve convenes to discuss its next policy decision, analysts anticipate an effort by Chairman Powell to calm speculation and maintain a resilient economic outlook. Despite the initial rise in the Dollar, a detailed examination of the inflation report revealed underlying weakness, leading to a nuanced view of the trajectory of interest rates. Meanwhile, technical analysis points to a key moment at the 1.2500 support level, with the potential for significant volatility in either direction.
The US dollar made a comeback following the release of November inflation data, surprising markets with a monthly CPI increase of 0.1%. This increase, compared to October's steady reading and market expectations, has changed sentiment towards the greenback. Core CPI, at 0.3% m/m, further reinforces the view of rapidly increasing price pressures.
EURUSD :Analyze market strategies todayThe Euro continues to strengthen as Martins Kazaks, member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), highlighted the need to maintain current interest rates over the long term. However, he suggested that the first interest rate cut could materialize around mid-2024. This statement strengthened the Euro's position as the commitment to maintain interest rates was seen as a maintenance measure. the power of money.
From the chart below, we can see that EUR/USD has moved away from the 200 Day Moving Average, which shows that the pair is currently trending very strongly, so it is best to focus on buying and not sold. Selling would be a higher risk counter-trend method. EUR/USD has a key resistance level at 1.05000. Personally, I think EUR/USD will head towards that price level before any pullback.
Gold will likely decrease then increase againFrom a technical standpoint, gold's recent breakout above a week-long consolidative trading range, approximately around $2,048 , signals a favorable environment for bullish traders. Notably, the occurrence of a golden cross, where the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed above the 200-day SMA, adds weight to the positive outlook.
This technical setup positions gold for potential further gains, with the $2,090 zone emerging as the next relevant hurdle. Should the momentum persist, there is a distinct possibility of gold reclaiming the psychologically significant $2,100 mark.
However, the path to glory is not without its challenges. A reversal below the aforementioned trading range resistance could lead to a retracement, with support levels at $2,026 and $2,017. A decisive break below the latter might trigger technical selling, leaving gold vulnerable to a more pronounced decline towards the psychological support at $2,000.
TRADING PSYCHOLOGY: HOW TO OVERCOME YOURSELF?Hello forex traders! How much money have you lost because of emotions? How many losing trades have you closed because they went negative and it annoyed you? And how many times did the currency immediately reversed after you recorded a loss? As we all know up to 80% of success in forex trading depends on psychology. Money management is of great importance and only then strategy. Not everyone realizes it, but this is the harsh reality. How to defeat yourself? How to remain calm in any situation? How to protect yourself from negative emotions that cloud your mind?
The Impact Of Emotions On Analysis
When you are sitting in losses, you do not pay attention to what is happening on the chart. That is, your brain rejects the signals that indicate that the price will continue to go against you. On the contrary, your brain tries to convince you that the price is about to turn around, which, of course, does not happen. If you close the position and look at the market with a clear eye, you will realize that the situation in the market is not the same as it was in your head a moment ago. This distraction in the form of a minus on the position affects your attentiveness, and you do not notice the obvious.
There is such a thing as analysis paralysis. That is, when some event literally knocks you out of the rut, after which you cannot adequately perceive the situation. This can be avoided with the help of reasonable sufficiency. That is, you stop looking for the perfect solution. Instead, you make the most correct and simple decision to close a losing position.
Also, traders are often afraid of losing profit. But then again, how many times have you held a losing trade, hoping for a reversal, and it still went against you? It is the same with profitable trades. There is a constant feeling that the price is about to turn around and all the profit will be lost. As an option, in this case you can use a trailing stop. Then you will in any case know that in case of price reversal, the profit will not be lost.
In principle, the cure for the influence of any emotions on the analysis is correct money management. That is, you just need to simply reduce your trading lot. The goal is to place such a lot, which would not cause you strong emotions.
Until you are used to being disciplined in every situation, it is better to trade at a lot that you could forget about. For example, you could open a trade on the daily chart and forget about it (accidentally or naturally). At the very initial stages this approach is justified, as no open positions will not prevent you from analyzing the situation competently. At the same time, the very fact of a negative trade will not knock you out of your game.
You Are Not Perfect
Remember, you are not perfect. There is no person who, like a robot, does not get nervous about trades, who performs absolutely perfect trading and never makes mistakes anywhere and ever. All of us make mistakes, it is normal, and it should be understood. Let's say you read that you need to reduce the lot, not to be emotional, and you still make mistakes. The thought that "I am smarter" does not leave your head. But, in general, if you read the biographies of successful people in other areas, you will learn that they also made mistakes. Often, a person needs to make all possible mistakes only in order not to make them later. So, to speak, we learn from our mistakes.
The average person believes that he is smarter than 80% of people. At the same time, there are always excuses for the question "why are you so smart, but so poor?" - something prevents you, you are too old, too young, your wife/husband prevents you, you were born in the wrong country and so on. Almost everyone thinks they are, so you don't have to worry, you are not the smartest.
The Vicious Circle Of A Beginner Trader
Searching for a system: you find a strategy that appeals to you.
Trading: as a rule, this period lasts 1-2 days, at best a week if.
First Losses: taking your first losses. It's usually down to the first few trades.
Anger: naturally, there is a feeling of being cheated as the system did not deliver the promised profits;
Blame: the system does not work; forex is a scam and the author of the system is a scammer. Someone is necessarily to blame, for example, the broker that closed the position a point later, but not the trader himself. And everything starts all over again.
Exit From The Circle:
Finding a system.
Backtesting from the beginning to the end: the strategy should be either tested manually on the history or in a tester if the strategy is automatic.
Absolute confidence in the strategy: when you have fully tested the strategy, know all the statistics, know all the pros and cons, you gain confidence in the chosen strategy.
Good money management: further, you add a good money management.
Now it is "your" trading strategy: the strategy should be completely yours. If you are not comfortable holding positions for 3-4 days, move to a smaller timeframe. Or, on the contrary, if you are too lazy to open trades often, choose a larger TF. That is, the strategy should suit your temperament and be customized for you.
In general, all these pieces of the mosaic lead to the exit from the enchanted circle. You find a system, then trade, adequately perceiving losses. Accordingly, you further work with this system, solve problems with emotions, inputs and outputs, improve, tune-up and so on.
A Little Bit About Our Brain
The fact is that our brain compared to a computer has a very large hard disk, but a very small amount of RAM. Do you know the feeling when the brain is so overloaded that absolutely no information, even seemingly simple ones, can be stored in it? Of course, we cannot expand this memory, but we can control the number of simultaneously opened applications/programs. That is, we need to fight the so-called white noise. Remove social networks Facebook, messengers, YouTube, checking mail, and so on. This is all white noise that clogs your brain and prevents you from working adequately.
There are many opponents and many supporters of meditation. Meditation is, in fact, nothing more than to lie/sit under calm music and go into a certain semi-trance state. Humans periodically need three states: being awake, sleep and a trance state. Usually after a certain mental effort, you start to get very dumb without doing any useful work. This is the brain signaling that you are lacking the trance state. 30 minutes of trance a day is quite enough.
Do Not Set Goals In Trading
When you set yourself a specific goal, for example, to make 1% every day it doesn't work. You start looking for non-existent trades again, clouding your brain. Therefore, you should not set profit targets. On the other hand, it is possible and even necessary to set loss limits!
Sometimes, there is a sudden unreasonable desire to open a trade. Although the system did not give a signal. As a way out of this situation, you can try to open two accounts, one for adequate trading, where you will open trades clearly according to the rules of the system. Another smaller one for aggressive trading, when you have an irresistible desire to open a trade. If it really "works", you will still get profit, though not so big.
Bottom Line
As you can see, strategy is often not the deciding factor in trading. Psychology is what ultimately makes you act in one way or another. It takes the right approach and practice to be unstoppable in trading. The rest comes with experience over time.