Monitoring GBPNZD Trend StrengthGBPNZD has been such a weird pair for me. It gives off bearish vibes as annotated in my original analysis.
As labelled on my chart, I entered short last week and got stopped out a few days later. Now that price entered and then exited the previous range on the downside, I'm enticed to make another attempt at a short entry.
Plan is to wait for 1-2 more daily candle(s) close before making an entry decision. The reason is because I do not want to see strong overlapping bars, which may indicate market indecision or also known as micro-consolidation.
Forex-trading
GBPCHF Momentum PlayBack in October, I managed to capitalized on the initial range breakout. Another momentum play has been observed based on the price action detailed below.
Price forms a lower high, which also indicates that we're likely seeing a price ceiling.
Momentum picks up towards the downside on the neckline break.
The range era has come to an end as price breaches below the lower boundary and successfully holds below it.
Very surprising v-shaped recovery, but new range has formed.
This is a very interesting break below the lower range boundary. Not only does price holds below this boundary, it also signifies that the v-shaped recovery is rather shortlived.
THE KOG REPORTKOG Report:
In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be looking for price to attempt the high before finding resistance and then we would be looking to short the market. Initially targeting the 1980 level, and upon the break, we would have more confidence in lower pricing. We had the path showing the 1950-55 level and gave the extension levels of 1947-5 as the potential RIP zone.
Price followed the path nearly to the pip each way giving us a level to level, point to point move on Gold, not only the short down, but the bounce giving us a scalp capture to the upside where we wanted 1970 but got 1964.
During the week, we gave KOG’s bias of the day with the levels and activation of bearish below, completing all the bias levels and targets given. A great week of targets completing not only on Gold and the other instruments we trade, but Silver being the star of the show finishing off the week.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Another choppy week is likely with whipsawing price action and swings in both directions. We’re at a crucial price point in Gold having broken the order region which is now on the flip. This structure, however, does complete in extension into the 1920-23 price region. This price point is important for Gold to stay above, as a close below here will lead us to lower pricing. This gives us the weekly resistance level now standing at 1950-55 order region which will be a crucial test and potential opportunity for any long trades. This is the price point we want to monitor with further resistance levels 1965 and above that 1970.
From opening and in the early sessions, if we see price attempt the lower support regions, upon holding and strong support, with a clear set up, we feel an opportunity to long into the higher levels 1950-55 and above that 1965 are reasonable. We’re too low here to short the market, so opportunities may come from higher up if gold wants to play nicely. For that reason, if we do push up during the early part of the week, we’ll target the long trades from the intraday support levels and Excalibur guiding us before looking for resistance to hold above, and then attempting the short trade back down to break the 1930 level. The path is shown on the chart together with the levels we’re looking at.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bearish below 1965-70 with targets below 1910
Bullish on break of 1970 with targets above 1985 and above that 1995
This gives us the potential range 1910-1985 for the week ahead.
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As always, trade safe.
KOG
GBPUSDThe pound appears even more technically sound compared to the euro. On Monday, with an aggressive movement, the price confirmed the structure by securing itself above the previous maximum and then reached the fractal maximum formed in September. Starting from Wednesday, we rapidly covered the imbalance formed since Monday. For the next week, similar to the euro, I expect a long movement with the potential for updating the maximum.
ANALYSIS OF GBPUSD ON H1 TIMEFRAME 14/11/2023- GBPUSD's main structure is bearish, with a secondary structure showing a corrective rebound.
- At favorable Sell points, it is recommended to wait for the price to return to the area around 1.23643 to look for short-selling opportunities.
- For buying opportunities, it is advisable to wait for the price to reach the support level at 1.22394.
GBPUSD: Important Key Levels & Structure Analysis 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis for GBPUSD.
Horizontal Key Levels
Support 1: 1.2039 - 1.2110 area
Resistance 1: 1.2390 - 1.2463 area
Resistance 2: 1.2508 - 1.2580 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line
Vertical Support 2: Falling trend line
The pair nicely respected a confluence point based on 2 falling trend lines.
Doji candlestick formation on that increases the probabilities that the pair will go higher.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is very close to a current daily high.
To catch a pullback from the underlined red area,
monitor a 4H time frame.
I see a nice rising channel there.
Its support breakout (4h candle close below) will give you a strong bearish confirmation.
A bearish movement will be expected to 150.9 level then.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the daily resistance will push the prices to 151.9 level.
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Swing Opportunity on GBPNZDThe price action I've observed on the daily timeframe points to a very nice bearish sentiment in five key points.
Price peaks in August by forming a range, which breaks near the end of that month.
Consolidation forms shortly after and downside momentum forces price to break below the lower range boundary.
This marks a technical trend change as defined by the crossing over the faster exponential moving average (EMA) below the slower EMA.
Price retraces in October and forms another consolidation.
In today's close, price retests the lower range boundary of this consolidation and holds below it; price currently exhibits continued selling strength.
Retracing Bearish for the LONG Bullish RUNDrawing from our analysis of this pair in the past few weeks, we have seen this pair show considerable movement in both directions: bullish and bearish, especially on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes.
With the spike across all USD crosses last Friday, this pair, like all other USD crosses, lost its bearishness and u-turned bullish on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes.
Today, we will look at it from the 4-hour perspective.
On the 4 hour, we see the market in a Bullish PB. The market has made a high and has begun to pullback into the PB. We expect this bearishness to hold, believing that the retracement will bring prices into our zone, from which we would look to take a LONG trade all the way up to the top.
Did I say "All The Way Up...?" Just kidding guys. The up move is expected to last long enough to hit the 4-hour liquidity target marked out towards the top of the chart.
We will monitor as prices unfold and look to make the most of the trading opportunity when we find one.
A Great Deal of Bearishness Expected on the GBPUSDFrom our analysis of this pair in the previous weeks, we saw a good amount of bearishness.
With the close of last week, this pair witnessed a bullish reversal on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes, invalidating our bearish zones and PBs and going all the way into the north.
Today, we are beginning to see another round of bearishness. On the 1-hour, the market has already reversed bearish with the breach of our bullish PB.
We are setting up for a short trade position, and we will look to take it when we get the needed retracement.
Is The Cable Going Bearish Again...?On the 1 hour, we have seen how the market has danced back and forth in the past few days.
In our last analysis from yesterday, we noticed a strong threat by the bulls to invalidate our zone. The zone was finally invalidated and the bulls took over without giving us a chance to take the trade to the downside.
Following the bullish shift, we witnessed the market stay bullish for a very short term as it again u-turned bearish with the invalidation of our 1 hour zone and PB. It would be safe to say that the seeming bullishness was nothing but the market aiming to make a deeper retracement on the 4 hour timeframe.
THe 4 hour chart is still bearish and we expect prices to switch into the extension swing and stay so. With the 1 hour now aligning bearish with the 4 hour, we are confident the extension is here and that prices will ultimately begin to dip towards our liquidity target below.
We will look to catch this bearish trade and milk the market as it moves towards our target.
Are We Still Bearish on The EURUSD, Or Is It Time To Go Bullish?From our previous analysis of this pair, we have been able to keep track of a lot of the market and price movements.
Analyzing the markets from a 1-hour perspective over the past few days, we have witnessed a lot of back and forths, though in all of those, the market found ways to take us to our targets at each of those instances before catapulting in several directions. So today, we will be looking at this pair from a 4-hour perspective.
On the higher timeframes of the monthly, weekly, and daily, we find an agreement of direction, with all of these timeframes indicating that the market is currently bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, we find the market is currently in a down trend, making 1 PB down. This week, we have seen the market plummet down to spike the 4-hour liquidity target, but without taking it out or closing below it. Instead, prices ran bullish after hitting the 1 hour timeframe liquidity target at the same level.
Enough of the narrative. Now the analysis.
From a 4-hour perspective, the price is currently in a bearish trend and is now on a bullish retracement. Price seems to be aiming for some higher level within the PB to get its reversal. When the reversal comes, we would expect prices to dip all the way to our 4-hour liquidity target below. That is the move necessary to complete the 4-hour swing and move us into the next bearish PB on the 4-hour.
Upon
EUR/USD will decrease significantly on November 2Fed keeps interest rates unchanged
📍 Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.
📍 The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of
2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
📍 The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury
securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.