EURUSD: Top of the Channel. Sell signal.After turning overbought on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 68.344, MACD = 0.008, ADX = 40.692) EURUSD made a HH at the top of the November Channel Up and got rejected. We expect a pullback all the way to at least the 4H MA50, and as it is confirmed by a MACD Bearish Cross, we are already short and targeting a little over the bottom of the Channel Up (TP = 1.08425).
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Forex-trading
EURUSDI like how the price moved during yesterday's New York session and Asia. I don't see any signs of a market reversal; it's a clear long context. I am ready to consider long positions from the nearest fractals below since there is currently nothing else to do (imbalances are covered, and liquidity work is present).
NZDUSD Swing as Dollar Becomes BearishThe era of high interest rates may not persist for much longer. Or, at least, that's what price is telling us.
The US dollar sold off against pretty much all of its counterparts, maybe except for the Canadian dollar. It appears that investors believe that the Federal Reserve may not be sustaining a higher interest rate position and US dollar longs are closing out their positions.
No matter to me as I look at the price action. This latest breakout signals a long entry opportunity on NZDUSD, one of the latest pairs I'm looking to enter. Fortunately, I have already entered short on USDSEK and USDJPY so this is an accumulation of my position.
EURUSD: Important Key Levels to Watch Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis for EURUSD.
Resistance 1: 1.0920 - 1.0650 area
Resistance 2: 1.1015 - 1.0946 area
Support 1: 1.0736 - 1.0775 area
Support 2: 1.0658 - 1.0684 area
Support 3: 1.0495 - 1.0536 area
Support 4: 1.0447 - 1.0468 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading next week.
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Equity Line SwipeUP 20/11/2023Hi Guys, thanks for being here.
Today I want to publish my "Equity Line", updated to 11/20/2023, with all the operations carried out on Trading View and therefore all documentable.
This Equity Line briefly explains my investment methodology. Of course many of you will disagree, but I'm here to share my methodology.
I started with a "Capital to Invest" of €5000. This capital is a fixed sum that will allow me to calculate 10%, which I will need to invest in every operation I carry out.
So at this moment, having that sum as "Capital to Invest", in each of my investments I will risk €500 to have, in 90% of cases (never less), a risk/return set at 1:4.
I have shown in the graph my last 4 investments of November, all published in advance in my profile.
I will publish a new EquityLine updated every month or with every operation, I haven't decided this yet.
If you like, follow me for more updates.
Cordially,
Andrea Russo.
BULLISH AND BEARISH FLAG PATTERNSBullish and bearish flag patterns are common patterns in forex that are used by traders to determine potential price movement in a trending market. These patterns can provide clues about market sentiment and help us make informed decisions about when to enter or exit a trade. It should be remembered that this pattern is a continuation pattern, not a reversal pattern, as these patterns appear after a strong movement. How to apply in trading patterns bullish and bearish flag?
The bull flag pattern is a continuation pattern that forms after a strong upward price movement. This pattern is characterized by a sharp price rally, followed by a period of consolidation in the form of a descending channel or flag, and then a continuation of the movement. The flag is usually accompanied by a decrease in market volatility and momentum, which indicates a temporary pause in the uptrend. The price is resting after a strong bullish movement before continuing.
How to apply in trading?
1. Identify a strong upward movement (flagpole): The first step is to identify the flagpole of the initial strong upward price movement that precedes the formation of this pattern.
2. Flag formation: After identifying the flagpole, traders must draw a trend line connecting the highs and lows of the consolidation to see the flag pattern. You need to watch the price closely because this pattern can turn into an ascending triangle.
3. Breakout of the contraction: Then wait for a breakout above the upper trend line of the flag pattern, accompanied by an increase in momentum. A breakout of the co-principal level confirms the continuation of the uptrend and is a potential entry point for long positions. Usually the price makes a move equal to the flagpole, which gives an approximate take profit point.
Conversely, the bearish flag pattern is a continuation pattern that is formed after a strong downward price movement. This pattern is characterized by a sharp decline in price followed by a period of consolidation in the form of an ascending channel or flag. Similar to the bull flag pattern, the bear flag pattern is accompanied by a decrease in momentum, which indicates that the price is temporarily resting in a downtrend.
How to apply in trading?
1- Identify a strong bearish move (flagpole): The first step is to identify the flagpole of the initial strong downward price movement that precedes the formation of the flag pattern.
2. Flag formation: After identifying the flagpole, we must draw a trend line connecting the highs and lows of the consolidation boundary to recognize the flag pattern.
3. Waiting for support breakdown: We should wait for a breakdown of the lower trendline of the flag pattern, accompanied by an increase in price momentum. Such a breakdown confirms the continuation of the downtrend and is a potential entry point.
In conclusion, the use of bullish and bearish flag patterns in trading requires identifying a flagpole, building a flag pattern and waiting for a breakout to confirm the continuation of the trend. By understanding and effectively utilizing these patterns, we can enhance our analytical skills. This pattern can complement your existing trading method.
GBPUSD HTF contextHello, everyone. The pound, like the euro, demonstrated excellent price movement last week. I want to highlight the excellent work on the higher timeframe with the structural part of the context. We updated the local maximum with the price settling above it, after which an imbalance was formed, and its test occurred below. The target for the upcoming week will be the fractal at the 1.25500 price level.
USDJPY: Important Key Levels to Watch 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY started to fall rapidly.
Here are the important key levels to watch.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Broken rising trend line
Horizontal Structures:
Support 1: 148.75 - 149.21 area
Support 2: 148.15 - 148.50 area
Support 3: 147.41 - 147.56 area
Resistance 1: 150.05 - 150.38 area
Resistance 2: 151.71 - 151.94 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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XAUUSDGood morning. Gold on the daily timeframe is in a short context after the price has settled below the marked fractal minimum. Until the price updates the 2010 level, we will continue to be in a short context. We have also covered the nearest imbalances above, and the target of this movement will be the fractal minimum at 1930.The only thing that raises concern is the equal highs at 2010."
GOLD SELL TILL 24 NOV 2023 On 24th Nov, Friday, or 27th Nov, Monday, gold will create a low at 1924 and change the market to buy. Also, on 27th Nov, it's a full moon, so we are expecting a change of trend from 24th Nov or 27th Nov. The market will create a major low, and on 12th Dec, gold will create a high of 1998, and the trend will change to sell. Let's see how the market will respect our analysis. Previous analyses indicate that gold followed very beautifully; let's observe this one.
EURUSDHello, everyone. Since yesterday's evening review, several important developments have taken place. As anticipated, during the Asian and London sessions, we continued to move in the short direction. Following a news-driven movement in the New York session, we absorbed liquidity formed by yesterday's movement and updated the price maximum. On the higher timeframe, we had a raid on the daily fractal formed on Tuesday. I also marked a potential break of the market structure on the hourly timeframe. If the price confirms below, I plan to work in the short direction; otherwise, longs will remain a priority.
EURUSD#EURUSD
After yesterday's impulsive movement, the price, without touching the PDH, started moving in a short direction on the lower timeframe. On the chat, I noted liquidity work (covering imbalances, working with fractals). It's important to note that the context on the hourly timeframe remained unchanged despite the emergence of short movement. At the opening of Frankfurt, I considered a long position with targets to the nearest FTA (Asia High), and the position was closed at breakeven.
Tomorrow, I am ready to work in both directions—both short and long—since an sufficient number of imbalances has not been covered yet. However, there are also higher targets, such as equal highs and the absence of work with PDH.
Monitoring GBPNZD Trend StrengthGBPNZD has been such a weird pair for me. It gives off bearish vibes as annotated in my original analysis.
As labelled on my chart, I entered short last week and got stopped out a few days later. Now that price entered and then exited the previous range on the downside, I'm enticed to make another attempt at a short entry.
Plan is to wait for 1-2 more daily candle(s) close before making an entry decision. The reason is because I do not want to see strong overlapping bars, which may indicate market indecision or also known as micro-consolidation.
GBPCHF Momentum PlayBack in October, I managed to capitalized on the initial range breakout. Another momentum play has been observed based on the price action detailed below.
Price forms a lower high, which also indicates that we're likely seeing a price ceiling.
Momentum picks up towards the downside on the neckline break.
The range era has come to an end as price breaches below the lower boundary and successfully holds below it.
Very surprising v-shaped recovery, but new range has formed.
This is a very interesting break below the lower range boundary. Not only does price holds below this boundary, it also signifies that the v-shaped recovery is rather shortlived.
THE KOG REPORTKOG Report:
In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be looking for price to attempt the high before finding resistance and then we would be looking to short the market. Initially targeting the 1980 level, and upon the break, we would have more confidence in lower pricing. We had the path showing the 1950-55 level and gave the extension levels of 1947-5 as the potential RIP zone.
Price followed the path nearly to the pip each way giving us a level to level, point to point move on Gold, not only the short down, but the bounce giving us a scalp capture to the upside where we wanted 1970 but got 1964.
During the week, we gave KOG’s bias of the day with the levels and activation of bearish below, completing all the bias levels and targets given. A great week of targets completing not only on Gold and the other instruments we trade, but Silver being the star of the show finishing off the week.
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
Another choppy week is likely with whipsawing price action and swings in both directions. We’re at a crucial price point in Gold having broken the order region which is now on the flip. This structure, however, does complete in extension into the 1920-23 price region. This price point is important for Gold to stay above, as a close below here will lead us to lower pricing. This gives us the weekly resistance level now standing at 1950-55 order region which will be a crucial test and potential opportunity for any long trades. This is the price point we want to monitor with further resistance levels 1965 and above that 1970.
From opening and in the early sessions, if we see price attempt the lower support regions, upon holding and strong support, with a clear set up, we feel an opportunity to long into the higher levels 1950-55 and above that 1965 are reasonable. We’re too low here to short the market, so opportunities may come from higher up if gold wants to play nicely. For that reason, if we do push up during the early part of the week, we’ll target the long trades from the intraday support levels and Excalibur guiding us before looking for resistance to hold above, and then attempting the short trade back down to break the 1930 level. The path is shown on the chart together with the levels we’re looking at.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bearish below 1965-70 with targets below 1910
Bullish on break of 1970 with targets above 1985 and above that 1995
This gives us the potential range 1910-1985 for the week ahead.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GBPUSDThe pound appears even more technically sound compared to the euro. On Monday, with an aggressive movement, the price confirmed the structure by securing itself above the previous maximum and then reached the fractal maximum formed in September. Starting from Wednesday, we rapidly covered the imbalance formed since Monday. For the next week, similar to the euro, I expect a long movement with the potential for updating the maximum.