CADCHF: Range BreakoutCADHCF has been in a range since August 2024. This range is quite wide at approximately 160~ pips.
Another observable detail is that the upper range boundary breached twice - once in November 2024 and then again last month, in January 2025.
Right now, in early-February, price is showing signs of breaching the upper range boundary again. Unlike the previous breakouts, this one seems more sustained.
Right now, the daily ATR is 41.4 pips. This sets my trading parameters at TP 20 and SL 41.
Forex-trading
EUR/USD - Bearish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe:
• Still in a bearish structure → Major sell confirmations.
• Took out buy-side liquidity (BSL) and inducement (IDM) before mitigating a supply zone → Bearish intent remains.
🔹 30M Timeframe:
• Bearish structure confirmed, but price is forming a range inside the bearish structure.
• This range has built a bullish structure, likely a manipulation move to strike supply before continuing down.
• Took out SSL & IDM within the bullish structure → Tapped a bullish order block inside the range.
🔹 5M Timeframe:
• Waiting for a flip entry → CHoCH break of major LH + liquidity sweep before entry.
• Plan: If 5M confirms CHoCH + sweep + order block retest, I’ll enter for a continuation downward.
🎯 Target: Next major low inside the 4H bearish structure.
🛑 Invalidation: If price flips structure fully bullish and holds above supply zones.
Bless Trading!
EUR/GBP - Bullish Bias🔹 4H Timeframe:
• Broke a major Higher High (HH) → Confirmed bullish structure.
• Engineered liquidity at an order block → Expecting a move higher.
🔹 30M Timeframe:
• CHoCH confirmed → Bullish intent established.
• Took out sell-side liquidity (SSL) and inducement (IDM) to mitigate a 30M order block.
• Plan: Looking for a bullish reaction from the 30M order block → Entry on confirmation for further upside continuation.
🎯 Target: Next major high.
🛑 Invalidation: If price breaks below internal structure lows.
AUD/USD - BULLISH Bias🔹 4H Timeframe:
• Price took out sell-side liquidity (SSL) before pushing up.
• Broke a major Lower High (LH) → Confirmed bullish intent.
• Targeting the previous high as the next liquidity point.
🔹 30M Timeframe:
• CHoCH (Change of Character) confirmed → Bullish intent.
• Price is now approaching inducement before mitigating order flow.
• Plan: Wait for price to sweep inducement, confirm a lower timeframe CHoCH, and enter off the order block for a continuation to the upside.
🎯 Target: Next major high.
🛑 Invalidation: If price breaks below previous swing low and structure shifts bearish.
Bless Trading!
Price Action: Traps of Market MakersHave you ever felt confident about a market trend, only to watch the price suddenly reverse direction? Or found yourself following what seemed like a clear price movement, only to realize it was a false signal?
Don't blame yourself or your trading strategy. What you're experiencing is likely the work of market makers who strategically create traps to trigger stop losses and pending orders. In this post, we'll dive into these market traps – learning how to identify them, understanding their different types, and most importantly, discovering how to turn them into profitable opportunities.
What are market maker traps? At their core, market traps are deceptive price movements designed to create an illusion of a genuine trend, convincing traders to take positions before the market reverses course.
📍 1. The False Double Pattern Trap
At its core, most market traps manifest as false breakouts of key levels. One of the most common examples is the deceptive Double Top/Double Bottom pattern. If you have traded these patterns, you have probably noticed something interesting: the second top is often slightly higher than the first, while the second bottom tends to be slightly lower than the previous one. This contradicts the traditional pattern theory, which suggests the second top should be lower, indicating market weakness.
What's really happening here? Large market players deliberately push prices beyond these levels to trigger the stop losses and pending orders of smaller traders. Once they've captured this liquidity, the market reverses, revealing the trap.
📍 2. The Trend Continuation Trap
This trap is perhaps the most devastating for traders. Traditional market wisdom tells us that a bearish trend consists of progressively lower highs and lower lows. When a previous high gets broken, conventional technical analysis suggests the bearish trend has possibly ended. However, reality often plays out differently. The price might briefly break above a local maximum, triggering stop orders and creating the illusion of a trend reversal. Instead of reversing, though, the price continues its original downward trajectory. This phenomenon is particularly visible on shorter timeframes like M30 or H1, where the fake breakout typically spans several candles.
When you spot a breakout against an established trend, approach with caution – it's more likely to be a false signal than a genuine reversal. In contrast, during sideways market conditions, focus on trading bounces from the channel's boundaries (upper and lower borders). This more conservative approach can help protect you from these common traps.
📍 3. The News-Driven Trap
One of the most common traps occurs during news events. You've probably experienced it: price suddenly surges in one direction, breaks through a significant level, only to reverse sharply. This classic "fake-out" catches many traders on the wrong side of the market.
A key strategy for identifying these traps is to analyze multiple timeframes. Generally, you'll want to examine both higher and lower timeframes than your primary trading window. Remember: the higher the timeframe, the fewer traps you'll typically encounter, making your analysis more reliable.
📍 4. Session Opening Traps
Trading session transitions, particularly around the London open, often create another type of trap. You might notice one price direction before London opens, followed by a different movement at the session's start, which then reverses later. These movements typically trigger stop losses at key levels before reversing.
For detailed analysis of session traps, dropping down to smaller timeframes (15M) can reveal the true price action. For instance, you might spot a clear price rise followed by a decisive bounce off a significant level like 189.500.
When you see a breakout of any significant level – whether it's a round number or a local high/low during a trend correction – approach it with skepticism. Until price firmly establishes itself in the new zone with clear confirmation, consider the possibility that you're witnessing a trap designed to collect stop losses. Remember this fundamental truth: price is more likely to bounce from a level than break through it.
📍 Practical Tips on Trading Traps
◾️ Multi-Timeframe Analysis. The key to successfully trading traps begins with analyzing multiple timeframes. When you spot a breakout of an obvious level, switch to the timeframe where the movement appears most convincing. This helps you better understand the trap's structure and potential reversal points.
◾️ Entry and Risk Management. Timing your entry is crucial. Look for the first signals of price reversal, but remember - proper position sizing is essential. Keep your stop losses tight, as the market may still produce additional spikes that could prematurely end your trade. While this approach might take practice to master, the reward potential is significant - you can set take-profit targets up to 10 times larger than your stop loss.
◾️ Position Management. Once in the trade, actively manage your position. Move your stop loss to breakeven at the first appropriate opportunity to protect your capital.
📍 Conclusion
Trading traps effectively requires patience and practice. While this strategy can be challenging to master, the ability to recognize and capitalize on these traps gives you a significant edge in the market. Many traders fall victim to these traps; learning to spot them transforms you from potential prey into a skilled hunter. Take time to practice identifying these patterns before committing real capital, and start with smaller position sizes as you develop your skills.
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Xauusd weekly chart From a technical perspective, the overnight bounce and the subsequent move up on Friday validates the near-term positive outlook for the Gold price. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing slightly overbought conditions on the day chart and warrants some caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation before positioning for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend from the December monthly trough.
GBP/NZD Swing: Identifying Double Sell Limit OpportunitiesWe’re analyzing the GBP/NZD currency pair with a focus on establishing a swing position using a double Sell limit setup at key Fibonacci levels. This strategy aims to capitalize on expected retracements or reversals.
Strategic Entry Points
Our primary Fibonacci levels of interest are the 50% and 61.8% retracement levels. These points are based on recent price actions and are where we anticipate potential reversals could occur.
Short-Term Trend Focus
By employing this setup, we aim to capture short-term market fluctuations on a daily basis. Monitoring price movements closely allows us to adapt swiftly to changing market conditions.
Conclusion
Traders should keep an eye on GBP/NZD for signs of reversal at these Fibonacci levels, implement effective risk management, and remain flexible in their strategies. This approach may provide opportunities to benefit from short-term trend reversals in this dynamic market.
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Gold Trap to Big Bullish The chart shows *XAU/USD (Gold)* trading at (2,886.375) with a potential upward move. The first target is at (2,884.162) and further gains could reach *2,842.120*. The *support level* is marked below, indicating a possible reversal if the price dips. The overall trend appears bullish with room for upward movement
AUD_CHF RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅AUD_CHF is approaching a supply level of 0.5727
So according to our strategy
We will be looking for the signs of the reversal in the trend
To jump onto the bearish bandwagon just on time to get the best
Risk reward ratio for us
SHORT🔥
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Gold Trap to bullish TrendThe chart shows a bullish setup for Gold (XAU/USD) with the current price at (2,851.395) Key support levels are marked at (2,820) and (2,780) suggesting potential buying opportunities if the price drops. The first target is at (2,842)and the second at (2,884) indicating expected upward movement. A (buy) position is recommended near (2,820) with a stop loss below (2,780)for risk management.
XAUUSD buy From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved above the 70 mark and warrants some caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further appreciating move. Nevertheless, the recent breakout through key barriers suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside.
Xauusd buy 2855
TP1 2860
TP2 2866
Target 2872
Stop loss 2842
Yen Strengthens Past 152 as BOJ Signals Possible 2025 Rate HikeThe yen strengthened past 152 per dollar, an eight-week high after BOJ board member Naoki Tamura suggested raising rates to 1% in late 2025. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned of rising inflation, while strong wage data reinforced expectations of continued BOJ tightening. Real wages rose for a second month in December, with nominal wage growth hitting a 30-year high due to winter bonuses. The BOJ, which raised rates in January, remains open to further hikes. A weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields, driven by mixed US data and easing trade war fears, also supported the yen.
The key resistance level appears to be 153.85, with a break above it potentially targeting 154.90 and 156.00. On the downside, 151.90 is the first major support, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the price moves lower.
EUR/USD: Trump's Tariffs Impact Euro: Time for a Bounce?The EUR/USD pair kicked off the new trading week with a resounding bearish tone, plummeting to its lowest level since mid-January below 1.0210. Despite its oversold condition in the short term, investors continue to exercise caution in the Euro, fearing the lingering impact of US President Donald Trump's tariff threats.
Over the weekend, Trump's administration announced sweeping trade tariffs on key allies and competitors alike. The tariffs, which range from 10% to 25%, are set to apply to imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and potentially the European Union. When questioned by reporters on Sunday about the prospect of imposing tariffs on European imports, Trump remained coy about the details, merely stating that it would happen, but without specifying timing or severity.
This uncertain environment has instilled fear among market participants, causing the EUR/USD to decline sharply. However, as we navigate the complex landscape of global trade tensions, we believe that a short-term retracement is imminent. This potential correction could be sparked by investors seeking to reassess their positions and capitalize on any temporary relief from the recent downtrend.
A Weekend Gap Opportunity
In the near term, our primary focus is on the weekend gap that formed between 1.0170 and 1.0218. This gap represents a critical level that EUR/USD must fill to restore equilibrium in the market. If price action were to bounce from this gap, it could create a lucrative trading opportunity for traders looking to profit from a short-term recovery.
Given the extreme bearishness surrounding the EUR, a retracement could be achievable if the market decides to close the weekend gap. While this may seem modest by some standards, any trading opportunity that arises from the EUR/USD's oversold condition is worth exploring.
Conclusion
As the EUR/USD pair continues to grapple with uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff threats, we expect a short-term retracement to emerge in the coming trading sessions. This potential correction could provide a window of opportunity for traders to capitalize on the weekend gap, potentially leading to a temporary bounce.
While the long-term implications of these trade tensions remain unclear, our focus remains on the immediate market conditions. As the EUR/USD navigates this complex landscape, we remain poised to take advantage of any opportunities that arise from the market's natural oscillations.
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USDCHF short biasI'll be anticipating to short usdChf from 0.91643 taking the Old New York high 0.91611
I didn't see the sell opportunity that happens today to I'm anticipating a pull back to my point of interest then I ride it down.
A believe it's going to be a bearish week.
Please share if you find this insightful 🫴
Japanese Yen Set for Weekly GainThe Japanese yen weakened beyond 155.5 per dollar, marking its second straight decline as the dollar strengthened. The US imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, triggering retaliatory actions from the affected nations. Although Japan was not directly targeted, its export-driven economy remains exposed to global trade disruptions.
A summary of discussions from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting indicated that policymakers considered the possibility of further interest rate hikes to counter inflationary pressures and a weakening yen. In January, the BOJ raised its policy rate and signaled its willingness to increase rates again if economic conditions and inflation trends warrant further action.
The key resistance level appears to be 155.90, with a break above it potentially targeting 158.70 and 160.00. On the downside, 153.80 is the first major support, followed by 151.90 and 149.20 if the price moves lower.
Stop Loss Mastery: Methods Of Trade ProtectionStop Loss and Take Profit represent the fundamental boundaries of every trade, acting as the cornerstones of risk management in trading. While both are important, Stop Loss carries particular significance and is considered more crucial than Take Profit. In manual trading, implementing a Stop Loss is absolutely essential, whereas Take Profit settings remain optional, offering traders more flexibility in managing their profitable positions. Traders can employ various methods to set their SL levels, and while specific trading systems often dictate their own rules, several universal approaches have proven effective. Let's examine one of the most common methods.
📍 On the Local Extrema
This method offers two primary variations. The first involves placing your Stop Loss relative to the signal candle. For buy positions, you would set the Stop Loss several pips below the minimum of the bullish signal candlestick. Conversely, for sell positions, you would place it several pips above the maximum of the bearish signal candlestick.
The second variation focuses on the last local extreme point rather than the signal candle itself. When opening a buy position, you would position your Stop Loss a few points below the most recent local minimum. For sell positions, you would place it above the most recent local maximum.
However, traders should be aware of a significant drawback to these approaches: their predictability. Market makers and experienced traders can easily identify these common Stop Loss placement patterns on their charts. They often exploit this knowledge by deliberately pushing prices to levels where they anticipate a concentration of Stop Loss orders. After triggering these stops and forcing smaller traders to close their positions at a loss, they frequently allow the price to resume its original direction. This practice, known as "stop hunting," particularly affects retail traders who rely on these conventional placement methods.
📍 Setting Stop Loss by Key Price Levels
When using price levels for Stop Loss placement, traders can take advantage of significant order accumulation points that are naturally more resistant to manipulation. This method requires placing the Stop Loss a few points beyond the key level - below when buying and above when selling.
A key advantage of this approach is that it typically positions the Stop Loss well beyond the last local minimum (for buy trades) or maximum (for sell trades). This strategic placement helps protect positions from premature exits that might occur with simpler Stop Loss methods.
📍 Technical Indicator-Based Stop Loss
The ATR or Parabolic SAR indicator offers a straightforward approach to Stop Loss placement that appeals particularly to newer traders. Its clear visual markers provide explicit guidance for Stop Loss positioning, with traders simply placing their stops at the SAR marker level.
This method offers an interesting advantage: traders can manually adjust their Stop Loss with each new candle formation, creating a flexible alternative to traditional trailing stops. However, like extrema-based stops, indicator-based placement can be predictable and potentially vulnerable to market manipulation.
📍 Stop Loss Based on Fundamentals
Rather than relying solely on pre-set Stop Loss levels, fundamental analysis often guides manual exit decisions. Prudent traders might close positions before significant market events, such as:
• At the end of the American trading session when market activity naturally declines
• Shortly before major economic news releases that could trigger substantial price movements
Some traders incorporate fundamental factors into their Stop Loss calculations. For instance, they might set stops based on average daily price movements for specific currency pairs - like using a 70-pip Stop Loss for FX:EURUSD trades, reflecting that pair's typical daily range.
📍 Advanced Technical Stop Loss Strategies
Beyond basic indicator-based stops, traders can employ more sophisticated technical analysis tools for exit trades. These might include:
• Moving average crossovers
• Stochastic oscillator overbought/oversold signals
These approaches often require active management, with traders monitoring indicators in real-time and executing manual exits when their chosen signals appear.
🔹 Psychological Aspects of Stop Loss Management
The psychological impact of Stop Loss execution presents a significant challenge for many traders. Even when a Stop Loss performs its intended function of limiting potential losses, traders may experience:
• Feelings of personal failure
• Diminished confidence in their trading system
• General market skepticism
• Emotional distress after multiple consecutive stops
🔹 Avoiding Mental Stop Losses
While some traders prefer "mental" stops over actual platform orders, this approach carries significant risks:
• Technical failures could prevent manual exits
• Emotional barriers might delay necessary exits
• Small losses can balloon into significant account drawdowns
To protect against these risks, traders should always implement their mental stops as actual platform orders, ensuring systematic risk management regardless of market conditions or psychological pressures.
This structured approach to Stop Loss placement combines technical precision with psychological awareness, helping traders develop both the skills and mindset needed for successful risk management.
🔹 Additional Position Management Methods
In trading, while Stop Loss and Take Profit orders form the foundation of exit strategies, several sophisticated techniques can help traders optimize their position management. Let's explore these methods that go beyond basic exit orders.
⚫️ Breakeven Stop Adjustment
One of the most psychologically powerful position management techniques involves moving your Stop Loss to the trade entry point, effectively eliminating downside risk while maintaining upside potential. This strategy becomes particularly valuable when price movement has demonstrated strong momentum in your favor.
The conventional approach suggests adjusting to breakeven when the price has moved in your favor by double the initial Stop Loss distance. For instance, consider a trade with a 20-pip Stop Loss and a 60-pip Take Profit target. When the position shows 40 pips of profit (twice the initial risk), moving the Stop Loss to the entry point ensures you won't lose money on the trade while still allowing for further gains.
⚫️ Dynamic Risk Management with Trailing Stops
Trailing Stops represent an evolution in risk management, allowing traders to protect accumulated profits while maintaining exposure to continued favorable price movement. This technique dynamically adjusts your Stop Loss level as the price moves in your favor, essentially "trailing" behind the price at a predetermined distance.
⚫️ Strategic Partial Position Closure
Traders often face a dilemma when price approaches their Take Profit level: should they close the entire position or attempt to capture additional gains? The partial closure strategy offers a balanced solution. When market conditions suggest potential for extended movement beyond your initial target, consider closing a portion of your position (typically 70-80%) at the original Take Profit level while allowing the remainder to pursue more ambitious targets.
This approach becomes particularly relevant when trading near significant technical levels. For example, if you're holding a long position with a Take Profit set below a major resistance level, and technical indicators suggest this level might break, closing most of your position secures profits while maintaining exposure to potential breakout gains.
📍 Conclusion
While numerous exit strategies exist in trading, successful execution requires more than just mechanical application of techniques. True trading mastery emerges from the ability to recognize market context, understand both technical and fundamental factors, maintain emotional equilibrium, and make flexible decisions within established risk parameters.
The journey of becoming a skilled trader involves developing judgment about when to apply different exit strategies. This wisdom comes through experience in the markets, careful observation of price action, and a deep understanding of how different approaches work in varying market conditions. Traders gradually build their expertise by starting with fundamental concepts and progressively incorporating more sophisticated position management techniques into their trading approach.
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GBP/JPY Awaits Catalyst for Next Bullish ImpulseThe GBP/JPY currency pair is currently fluctuating within a defined range, and we anticipate a continuation of the bullish momentum following a rebound from the demand zone near the 190.000 level. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders are positioned on the short side, creating a contrarian buying opportunity. As we plan our buy limit orders, we are utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels to identify potential entry points. We believe that the price may revisit the 192.000 area, setting the stage for a new bullish impulse.
Historical analysis suggests that the GBP/JPY has been trending upwards, driven by a strong British pound and a relatively weak Japanese yen. The pair has faced periods of congestion, particularly in the 190.000 – 192.000 zone, where it has been bouncing back and forth. However, with retail traders short, the market dynamics could shift in favor of buyers.
In conclusion, the GBP/JPY is poised for a potential breakout, and we believe that a continuation of the bullish momentum is likely. As retail traders are positioned on the short side, we see this as a favorable buying opportunity. Our analysis suggests that the price may revisit the 192.000 area, setting the stage for a new bullish impulse.
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XAU: Gold's Supply Area: A Short Opportunity?As the market for gold fluctuates, there may be an opportunity to consider a speculative short position. Currently, gold appears to be retesting a supply zone, an area where selling pressure could drive prices lower. This retest may signal a shift in market sentiment, potentially leading to a retracement back to prior demand zones.
Technical Indicators: Observing price action and key technical indicators can reveal signs of weakness in gold's bullish momentum, supporting the case for a downward move.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Although taking an aggressive stance comes with risks, a well-placed stop-loss and clear profit targets can create a favorable risk-reward scenario.
Conclusion
Given these market dynamics, a speculative short position in gold, targeted at previous demand zones, could be worth considering. As always, it's essential to stay informed and manage risks effectively. What are your thoughts on this approach?
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EURCAD: Bullish Rally is Going to Continue 🇪🇺🇨🇦
EURCAD remains in a strong bullish trend for more than 2 weeks.
The violation of a key daily resistance is one more important bullish signal.
At the moment we see a local correction.
With a high probability, it will complete soon and
a rise will resume.
Next resistance - 1.5155
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EUR-CAD Strong Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-CAD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair has
Made a bullish breakout of
The key horizontal level
Of 1.5041 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we are
Bullish biased and we
Will be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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