Forex-trading
ANALYSIS OF GBPUSD ON H1 TIMEFRAME 14/11/2023- GBPUSD's main structure is bearish, with a secondary structure showing a corrective rebound.
- At favorable Sell points, it is recommended to wait for the price to return to the area around 1.23643 to look for short-selling opportunities.
- For buying opportunities, it is advisable to wait for the price to reach the support level at 1.22394.
GBPUSD: Important Key Levels & Structure Analysis 🇬🇧🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis for GBPUSD.
Horizontal Key Levels
Support 1: 1.2039 - 1.2110 area
Resistance 1: 1.2390 - 1.2463 area
Resistance 2: 1.2508 - 1.2580 area
Vertical Structures
Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line
Vertical Support 2: Falling trend line
The pair nicely respected a confluence point based on 2 falling trend lines.
Doji candlestick formation on that increases the probabilities that the pair will go higher.
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USDJPY: Your Trading Plan For Next Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY is very close to a current daily high.
To catch a pullback from the underlined red area,
monitor a 4H time frame.
I see a nice rising channel there.
Its support breakout (4h candle close below) will give you a strong bearish confirmation.
A bearish movement will be expected to 150.9 level then.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the daily resistance will push the prices to 151.9 level.
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Swing Opportunity on GBPNZDThe price action I've observed on the daily timeframe points to a very nice bearish sentiment in five key points.
Price peaks in August by forming a range, which breaks near the end of that month.
Consolidation forms shortly after and downside momentum forces price to break below the lower range boundary.
This marks a technical trend change as defined by the crossing over the faster exponential moving average (EMA) below the slower EMA.
Price retraces in October and forms another consolidation.
In today's close, price retests the lower range boundary of this consolidation and holds below it; price currently exhibits continued selling strength.
Retracing Bearish for the LONG Bullish RUNDrawing from our analysis of this pair in the past few weeks, we have seen this pair show considerable movement in both directions: bullish and bearish, especially on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes.
With the spike across all USD crosses last Friday, this pair, like all other USD crosses, lost its bearishness and u-turned bullish on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes.
Today, we will look at it from the 4-hour perspective.
On the 4 hour, we see the market in a Bullish PB. The market has made a high and has begun to pullback into the PB. We expect this bearishness to hold, believing that the retracement will bring prices into our zone, from which we would look to take a LONG trade all the way up to the top.
Did I say "All The Way Up...?" Just kidding guys. The up move is expected to last long enough to hit the 4-hour liquidity target marked out towards the top of the chart.
We will monitor as prices unfold and look to make the most of the trading opportunity when we find one.
A Great Deal of Bearishness Expected on the GBPUSDFrom our analysis of this pair in the previous weeks, we saw a good amount of bearishness.
With the close of last week, this pair witnessed a bullish reversal on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes, invalidating our bearish zones and PBs and going all the way into the north.
Today, we are beginning to see another round of bearishness. On the 1-hour, the market has already reversed bearish with the breach of our bullish PB.
We are setting up for a short trade position, and we will look to take it when we get the needed retracement.
Is The Cable Going Bearish Again...?On the 1 hour, we have seen how the market has danced back and forth in the past few days.
In our last analysis from yesterday, we noticed a strong threat by the bulls to invalidate our zone. The zone was finally invalidated and the bulls took over without giving us a chance to take the trade to the downside.
Following the bullish shift, we witnessed the market stay bullish for a very short term as it again u-turned bearish with the invalidation of our 1 hour zone and PB. It would be safe to say that the seeming bullishness was nothing but the market aiming to make a deeper retracement on the 4 hour timeframe.
THe 4 hour chart is still bearish and we expect prices to switch into the extension swing and stay so. With the 1 hour now aligning bearish with the 4 hour, we are confident the extension is here and that prices will ultimately begin to dip towards our liquidity target below.
We will look to catch this bearish trade and milk the market as it moves towards our target.
Are We Still Bearish on The EURUSD, Or Is It Time To Go Bullish?From our previous analysis of this pair, we have been able to keep track of a lot of the market and price movements.
Analyzing the markets from a 1-hour perspective over the past few days, we have witnessed a lot of back and forths, though in all of those, the market found ways to take us to our targets at each of those instances before catapulting in several directions. So today, we will be looking at this pair from a 4-hour perspective.
On the higher timeframes of the monthly, weekly, and daily, we find an agreement of direction, with all of these timeframes indicating that the market is currently bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, we find the market is currently in a down trend, making 1 PB down. This week, we have seen the market plummet down to spike the 4-hour liquidity target, but without taking it out or closing below it. Instead, prices ran bullish after hitting the 1 hour timeframe liquidity target at the same level.
Enough of the narrative. Now the analysis.
From a 4-hour perspective, the price is currently in a bearish trend and is now on a bullish retracement. Price seems to be aiming for some higher level within the PB to get its reversal. When the reversal comes, we would expect prices to dip all the way to our 4-hour liquidity target below. That is the move necessary to complete the 4-hour swing and move us into the next bearish PB on the 4-hour.
Upon
EUR/USD will decrease significantly on November 2Fed keeps interest rates unchanged
📍 Recent indicators suggest that economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation.
📍 The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of
2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.
📍 The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury
securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
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A Bearish RollerCoaster ... 100 Pips in SightWe are witnessing a strong bearish momentum on this pair. From the Monthly to the 1 hour charts, all the timeframes are bearish.
Comign through from yesterday's analysis of this pair, we see how prices have continued to melt towards our 4 hour and 1 hour timeframe targets.
From yesterday, we see how the market gave is a nice dip that went to hit our liquidity target. We are seeing a retracement into the PB. We have marked out our zone in line with the Panzy Pips education strategy, and now we are waiting to see prices come into our zone, give us some good bearish reversal, afterwhich we will look to jump on the bearish rollercoaster as the market glides down towards the liquidity target below.
Another Chance to Catch the TradeWe have been bearish on this pair since last week, when we started sharing our analysis actively.
Yesterday, we caught the trade from the top and were able to watch it progress to where it stands currently.
You missed the trade entry yesterday. That's ok. Because right now, you have a chance at joining the trend.
With the market making a pullback into our PB and entering our zone, we have begun to see signs of a bearish reversal that should see prices melt towards our liquidity target below. We are setting up to catch another entry off this pair, and our setup is seen on the chart.
Our trade entry is a SELl STOP and we are looking to get taken in when the market reverses.
Looking to go the full length of what is left, our target remains the liquidity target below.
A Bullish U-Turn in SightSo finally, we have come to the end of the 1-hour bearish trend that was based on the 4-hour bearish swing.
Remember that our trading Bearish was a counter trade in light of the 1 hour. Even though we were stopped out on that trade, I am sure we have all learned a very important lesson: always listen to the trend and go in its direction. Recall that the 1-hour was screaming bullish while the 4-hour was bearish. The 1-hour chart definitely chose to hold strong and move the market in its direction.
So let us now look at the market in the direction of the trend.
On the 1-hour chart, we can see that the market has made three bullish swings. It is currently making 3 PBs to the top. On the 4-hour chart, the market is equally bullish, with 1 PB to the up side. On the daily, we still have the market in a bearish PB.
The bullishness of the 1 hour and the 4-hour charts are likely to be retracements on the daily charts. Be that as it may, we will still expect the bullishness to hold sway and look for trading opportunities in that direction.
We would expect the market to remain bullish until the daily zone. The zone is our refinement of our bearish PB. When the market gets there, we will be more attentive to see a reversal play out.
We have established that the market is currently bullish on the 1 hour and 4 hour charts. So let's consider some trading opportunities. On the 1-hour chart, we have 3 PBs to the top side. We expect to see a bearish market pullback to give us an opportunity to get in on the LONG trade. The market is expected to retrace to our zone, as marked on the chart. From there, we would look to trade bullish using one of the trade entry methods taught at Panzy Pips Forex.
There is also the likelihood of the market reversing without getting to our marked reversal zone. Where that happens, we will apply the rules taught by Panzy Pips to catching such trades, and we will look to catch that wave all the way up to the top.
Long story short, we are out of this trade, and the trend is bullish on the 1-hour chart.
EUR/USD : The world simultaneously decreased📌This weekend, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) are both expected to keep interest rates steady, so the focus will be on the message from policymakers.
📌US nonfarm payroll data later this week will also be important for the Fed's interest rate hike path. Wall Street economists expected 188,000 new jobs in the United States in October, according to a Reuters poll.
⚡️In the opposite direction, the Euro increased 0.5%, reaching 1.0615 USD. The British pound increased 0.4%, reaching 1.2164 USD.
EURGBP Swing Entry OpportunityEURGBP is not the most trending currency pair, but I do believe are some momentum plays. They're slow to form, like taking all of last week, but the trend change does spell some opportunities.
There are two key points that signalled the reversal and hold.
Price broke above a consolidation that I marked for a reversal change signal.
Shortly after the neckline breakout, price formed another consolidation. Two weeks ago, price broke above that consolidation and halted shortly after the breakout.
For the week ahead, I'm watching to see if momentum picks up. If I do see stronger bullish candles, this will be good consideration to scale into a long position.