DXY: Channel Down on the 1D timeframe.The U.S. Dollar Index is reversing at the top of October's Channel Down on a technical outlook that is about to turn neutral (RSI = 56.064, MACD = 0.260, ADX = 25.484). As long as the price stays inside the Channel Down, we are bearish, aiming at the 1.1 Fibonacci extension (TP = 105.225). If the price crosses over the top of the Channel Down, while the 1D MACD forms a Bullish Cross, we will buy, aiming at the R1 level (TP = 108.000).
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Forex-trading
We are Still BearishAs promised, we are here with the 4-hour chart analysis.
If you have been following our analysis for a while, it would be absolutely clear to you from our charts that we are in a 4-hour bearish swing. The harmet is heading for the daily liquidity target below.
We are currently experiencing a bullish retracement on the 4-hour. This is necessary as the market never moves in a straight line. With 1 PB down, the 4-hour chart has retraced to gather momentum for the next dip towards the daily liquidity target.
We have refined our PB to a zone. The zone is as marked out on the chart, We expect to see some bearish reversal at this point. Where that is the case, this pair is expected to resume it bearish run towards the daily liquidity target.
EURUSD: Medium term buy opportunity.EURUSD was rejected on the 1D MA50 and turned into a sell that hit our target and the bottom of the Channel Up. Now that 1D is neutral again technically (RSI = 48.387, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 24.654) and the 4H MACD formed a new Bullish Cross (every Channel Up bottom has been formed on one) we can buy again and aim for another +1.85% rise (TP = 1.07150). A crossing over the R1 level (1.07375) would be bullish on the long term and target the 1D MA200.
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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Bulls now in ControlThe 1 hour chart has maintained its bullish momentum fron yesterday. It has gone ahead to clear out the 4 hour zone and breach the 4 hour Bearish PB.
Trend is now Bullish on the 1 hour and 4 hour timeframes, and this brings them in sync with the direction of the Daily chart timeframe
With our new Bullish PB in place on the 1 hour chart, we have marked out our zone for expected Bullish reversal. We will be looking to take trades when the market returns to the zone, using one of the methods taught on the Panzy Pips course
Bullish and Bearish... Which way to Trade?The pair is Bullish on the 1 hour. With the breach of our zone and PB of the 1 hour timeframe from yesyerday, as is clear that the 1 hour chart has reversed from a bearish perspective to a completely Bullish one.
The only trouble here is the on the larget timeframe of the 4 hour and above, the market is still bearish as the Bearish PBs are still in place.
It would therefore be more comfortable to consider the 1 hour bullish impulse as a retracement on the larget timeframe.
Be that as it may, because we are looking to trade the 1 hour chart, though in the direction of the higher timeframes, we will narrow our attention to just the 1 hour for now and monentarily forget about what the larger timeframes are saying.
We will be looking to see prices retrace Bearish into our PB and the marked zone. When market reaches our zone, we will use the Panzy Pips formula to confirm a Bullish reversal, following which we will apply one of the Panzy Pips trade entry methods to take our trade.
NZDUSD: Important Bearish Confirmation 🇳🇿🇺🇸
NZDUSD broke a support line of a rising parallel channel,
retest a broken horizontal daily demand zone.
It is an important sign of strength of the sellers.
I believe that the pair will start falling now to 0.584 / 0.582 levels.
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Q3 Sell Off Bias Breakdown Part 2 Hello, in this analysis, I saw the potential for this sell-off around August 8th. I just never posted it, but I was chatting with AI to see how many months, days, weeks, or years equaled how many candles. So, I picked the 91-day timeframe because I will normally be on the right side of the trend most of the time, as that is higher than the monthly, weekly, daily, etc. in terms of higher timeframe bias. More advanced break down
PART 1 LINK:
SHORT is the Way to GoThis pair has witnessed a continued melt in prices. It is bearish across several timeframes.
With the last swing just completed, we are looking forward to our next trade. In which direction are we looking to trade? Did i hear you correctly? Did you say BEARISH?
Hell yes. BEARISH IT IS...!
We are holding on to the bearish perspective as shown to us by the markets.
We will wait for the market to come into our PB, and from there, using one of the various Panzy Pips trade entry methods, we will take our trade all the way down to the liquidity target of the 1-hour timeframe.
NZDJPY - Following The Trend ↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
on Daily: Left Chart
NZDJPY has been overall bullish trading inside that big wedge pattern; and it is currently retesting the lower bound / orange trendline.
on H1: Right Chart
For the bulls to take over, and activate our buy setup, we need a break above the last high in gray.
Meanwhile, NZDJPY would be bearish and can still trade lower, especially if the 87.0 daily low is broken downward.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD: EUR/USD recovered to 1.0600 as USD reversed to declineEUR/USD was pressured in the European session by the conflict in the Middle East and the broad recovery of the USD and US government bond yields. The next key event is the EU Consumer Sentiment Report.
EUR/USD is currently rising for the 3rd day in the past 4 days and is above the 20-day MA. Technical indicators on the daily chart show bullish signals, with RSI moving higher. If the day closes above 1.0640, the bullish momentum could continue. On the contrary, if the price falls below the 1.0500 support, it will attract more selling pressure.
EUR/USD is currently rising for the 3rd day in the past 4 days and is above the 20-day MA. Technical indicators on the daily chart show bullish signals, with RSI moving higher. If the day closes above 1.0640, the bullish momentum could continue. On the contrary, if the price falls below the 1.0500 support, it will attract more selling pressure.
EURUSD: Structure Analysis & Important Key Levels 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis for EURUSD.
Horizontal Key Levels
Resistance 1: 1.0620 - 1.0640 area
Resistance 2: 1.0690 - 1.0740 area
Support 1: 1.0495 - 1.0510 area
Support 2: 1.0450 - 1.0467 area
Vertical Key Levels
Vertical Resistance 1: Falling trend line
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading next week.
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A potential turning for USD?Things have not turn out to be bearish yet, but a potential h&s could be in play if 105.50 zone is to give way. Watch for it!
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
EURJPY The yen may continue to declineInternational Monetary Fund (IMF) officials said that the yen's depreciation could further worsen as a result of the negative interest rate policy.
“As for the yen, we believe exchange rates are influenced by fundamental factors. As long as interest rate differentials persist, the yen will be under downward pressure,” said Sanjaya Panth, IMF deputy director for Asia and the Pacific. He spoke on the 14th of the month.
Japanese officials are under fresh pressure to prevent further depreciation of the yen. Investors now expect US interest rates to remain high for an extended period of time, while Japan will continue its negative interest rate policy. However, the IMF believes that intervention only makes sense when there are severe market abnormalities, an increased risk of financial instability, or sudden changes in inflation expectations. Asked whether the recent depreciation of the yen had prompted authorities to intervene, he said: "I don't think there are any of these three cases."
EURJPY Comment downGeopolitical influences do not play a role in sustainably subsidizing the Yen. Yesterday the USD/JPY exchange rate once again approached the observation level of 150; Specifically, it reached 149.74, then decreased slightly back to 149.56. The Yen has recently been fluctuating around the observation threshold, currency investors in the market are still observing the actions of the Japanese Government.
While many investors are still observing the market, many others determine that the Japanese Yen is in its 'weakest' stage and is 'bottom-fishing' for the Yen.
DOUBLE TOP FORMATIONWhat is a double top?
This pattern appears when the price reaches some levels, makes a high, then goes down for a while. Then it comes back to about the same level and draws the same high at about the same level as the previous one, and then turns around and goes down. With a double top, this pattern is a reversal pattern and favors, subsequently, a downward price move.
What should I pay attention to?
Let's say you had some buys open; you saw a double top and, accordingly, decided to exit. So, how can you determine whether it is a quality pattern or not?
First of all, you should pay attention if there is a resistance level at the level of the double top. In this case, we have one top, the second one and we can pay attention to the fact that there is a level nearby. And it almost overlaps with our double top.
This gives additional strength to the pattern and it becomes more significant. Secondly, there should be at least six candlesticks between the two tops. That is, the tops should not literally follow each other.
There should be at least six candles between the tops. So that it visually looks like 2 peaks, not 2 or 3 candles next to each other. But at the same time take into account that if the second peak is very far from the first one, then this pattern is most likely not a pattern and it is just a coincidence, and most likely you will not see any strong trend reversal. A correction, perhaps, but no more than that. Accordingly, the farther the first top is located from the second one, the weaker the pattern is. This is because the significance of the chart formation is simply lost in time. Therefore, try to select trades in which the second touch is lower than the previous one, if possible.
And in case the reversal does take place, you can catch a very big movement. And if the space on the left looks filled, then accordingly, you should not count on any strong reversal. But strong global reversals are not so common, so it is not easy to catch them in any case. As they appear by themselves quite rarely.
How to enter the market?
Let's look at an example. As we know, this pattern is a reversal pattern. We have formed the first top, then the second top was formed and the price went up. You do not know what to do, to enter or not to enter, when to enter, where to put stop loss and take profit.
First, we build a trend line of the previous trend. Moreover, it should capture the lows that preceded the second top. In this case, we had an upward trend, so our trend line will be built approximately like this. Next, we put a horizontal line at the level of our last low that preceded the second top.
We will enter, as you guessed, at the breakdown of our trend line or neckline. And our target will be: the distance from our last low to the level of our last tops.
Entry on the breakoout of middle low. And you can put, of course, pending orders, you do not have to sit in front of the screen and wait for this breakout to happen and the stop-loss will be approximately at the level of our two tops, a little bit higher. And this is how the trade will look like.
Usd pullback and broke up,uptrend intactAs mentioned about USD pullbacking, it did and the uptrend should be back in place again!
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Hello there!
If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏
And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁
Thank you!
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared.
Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
UNDERSTANDING MOVING AVERAGEHello traders! 👋 🤗 Today I will try to explain to you guys another perspective and the concept of moving average. This is one of the oldest technical indicators and, perhaps, the most popular and most frequently used, as a huge number of other indicators are based on it. A lot has been written about moving averages. And at the same time, despite the abundance of information and respect for this instrument on the part of almost all traders, the issue of trading on MA is poorly covered. What do we often see about moving averages? Most of it is crossover. When one sacred line crosses another, we should enter the trade or something like that. I would like to show one simple method of working with moving averages.
A few important points
Only Simple Moving Average (MA) on closings is used. When working with moving averages, only 2 parameters are important: PERIOD AND SLOPE ANGLE . Any crossings and other things are not taken into account. Only MAs with a high period (from 100 and above) are used.
Thus, we can see the general direction, which looks a bit smoother and more obvious than a regular chart. In general, it is considered that if the price is above the moving average, it is an upward trend; if it is below the moving average, it is a downward trend. At the same time, the higher the period of the moving average, the more long-term the trend is. For example, with a moving average period of 21, we can say that if the price is above it, it is a rather short-term upward trend.
If the moving average period is much bigger, say 100, and the price is above the moving average with a period of 100, then we can say that there is a solid upward trend. If the price is below the moving average with a longer period (for example, 100), then we realize that there is a solid downward trend.
In other words, the longer the period of the moving average, the more inflexible it is because it has to calculate the average value for the last candles (in our case, 100). This is a lot. And, accordingly, the longer the moving average period, the more important it is in the long term. Our job as traders is to squeeze everything out of the movement. The least job is to stay at breakeven and don’t blow the account. That is why large MA periods are used. And do not believe the words when they say that MAs are lagging.
For the demonstration we will use 3 timeframes: 4 hoursly - 1 daily - 1 weekly. As practice shows, the approach described below works even in the combination of 5 minutes - 15 minutes - 1 hour. This for day traders.
Examples of moving averages
As an example, we will now show the chart of one asset from 3 timeframes as already mentioned above:
Weekly (MA 100) will show us the direction of the global trend
Dayly (MA 200) the medium-term trend
4-hourly (MA 100) the actual entry points and setting Stop loss and Take profit
The essence of working with big MAs is very simple: we can trade only in the direction of MA movement, and at the entry point, the price should be on one side of all MAs (above or below it) on all 3 timeframes. In this case, the mandatory condition is that the angle of slope of the MA of the highest period must be strong, approximately 45 degrees.
AUDCHF weekly
Go down to the daily timeframe and apply MA 200. We highlight the areas where the price is also below the MA 200 on the daily timeframe. We also take into account the slope angle of the current MA. We highlight this movement with a green block.
AUDCHF daily
AUDCHF 4H
Now we go to H4 and apply MA 100. This is the timeframe for a possible entry point. We select the block where the price is below the MA on the current timeframe. We cut off all the moments when the price was above the MA, highlight the price movement below the MA with yellow blocks
3 potential areas where we can look for entry points to open short positions. Let's take a closer look at each area.
First opportunity
Second opportunity
Third opportunity
Of course, on live trading, things would be much more difficult. But as you can see, we got at least two very clean trades that screamed to take them.
Another one
EURJPY weekly
EURJPY daily
EURJPY 4H
Closer look
Again in hindsight everything looks good, but the purpose of this post is to help you build and understand a slightly different method of applying moving averages if you use them. As you can see, trend trading is actually much easier.
What about sideways movements?
If the trend is more or less clear, and as soon as the SMA on the higher timeframe (say, daily) shows a more flat angle of slope for the last 5–10 bars, we have a sideways movement. You can try to take advantage of this on the lower timeframes.
In this post I tried to show how to systematize and demonstrate my approach to trading on moving averages. Of course, there are many methods of trading on short-term moving averages, on the combination of multi-period MAs on one chart, etc. Sometimes it is hard to describe in words what is "right" angle of slope, and the overall price movement, I guess all this comes only with personal experience.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment
GBPUSD after falling will increase againGBPUSD was last trading over 0.2% higher at $1.2202.
Investors also digested producer and consumer prices data out of China on Friday that showed deflationary pressures were slightly stronger than expected.
"What we've got is a fairly weak growth story (from China), and that's weighing on the price numbers," said Rob Carnell, regional head of research in the Asia-Pacific region at ING.
He added that the government could feel pressure to offer further support to the economy, albeit limited.
Bloomberg News reported earlier in the week that China is considering raising its budget deficit for 2023 as the government prepares to unleash a new round of stimulus to help the economy meet the official growth target.
China's trade data for September, meanwhile, showed exports and imports both shrank at a slower pace for a second month, providing some encouragement to authorities.
EURUSD decreased then increased againThe euro EURUSD ticked up nearly 0.2% to $1.0549 after taking a tumble overnight against the dollar, while sterling GBPUSD was last trading over 0.2% higher at $1.2202.
Investors also digested producer and consumer prices data out of China on Friday that showed deflationary pressures were slightly stronger than expected.
"What we've got is a fairly weak growth story (from China), and that's weighing on the price numbers," said Rob Carnell, regional head of research in the Asia-Pacific region at ING.
He added that the government could feel pressure to offer further support to the economy, albeit limited.
AUDUSD AUDUSD is trending downAUD increased slightly on October 12 when Australian banks may increase interest rates to 4.35%
Australia is committed to ensuring a stable energy supply to Japan during the 5th Japan-Australia Ministerial Economic Dialogue. The above agreement reflects the strategic partnership between the two countries, emphasizing the important stable and reliable flow of energy resources, which may include sectors such as coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG)