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NZD/USD Rebounds, But Caution Remains Ahead of US Economic DataThe NZD/USD pair rebounded today from a key demand area, but caution remains among traders as critical US economic data looms. The upcoming reports for USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly affecting both EUR/USD and NZD/USD. These data points are crucial for assessing the strength of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected results could further support the US Dollar (USD), applying downward pressure on other currencies like the euro and the New Zealand Dollar (NZD). China's Economic Data in Focus for NZD In addition to US developments, market participants are likely to remain cautious ahead of key economic data from China, New Zealand’s top trading partner, scheduled for release on Friday. The upcoming GDP and Retail Sales figures will be closely monitored, especially after the recent disappointment in China’s CPI and PPI numbers. Weak results from China could have negative implications for the NZD, given New Zealand’s heavy reliance on trade with China. The New Zealand Dollar has faced additional challenges, as China's recently announced fiscal stimulus measures have failed to lift market sentiment. Investors remain uncertain about the scale and impact of the stimulus package, further weighing on the outlook for the NZD. USD Strength and Federal Reserve Outlook Meanwhile, the US Dollar has found support from strong labor and inflation data, which has tempered market expectations for aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently a 92.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in November, with little to no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point reduction. This has kept the USD resilient, further limiting the upside potential for the NZD/USD pair. Technical Outlook and Market Sentiment From a technical standpoint, while the NZD/USD has seen a rebound, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail traders remain bearish on the pair, whereas smart money has started increasing their positions. In addition, our forecast suggests a potential shift toward a bullish seasonality for the NZD, though market conditions remain uncertain. Given the importance of today’s US economic data, we are adopting a patient approach, waiting for the news release before considering any entries. Stronger-than-expected US figures could dampen the outlook for the NZD, while weaker data may present opportunities for the NZD to regain strength. In conclusion, while there are signs of a potential bullish trend emerging for the NZD/USD, the combination of ongoing USD strength and upcoming key economic releases from both the US and China makes it necessary to remain cautious in the near term. Patience will be key as we await further developments in the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about NZD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Extends Decline Near 1.0850 Ahead of Key Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair extended its decline during the early Asian session on Thursday, hovering around the 1.0850 mark. The continued strength of the US Dollar (USD) has added selling pressure on the euro, as investors anticipate critical developments in both Europe and the United States. Notably, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce another interest rate cut during its monetary policy meeting today, which will play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term direction of the EUR/USD. ECB Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations The ECB meeting is a focal point for the market, with investors widely expecting another rate cut as the central bank attempts to stimulate the sluggish Eurozone economy. The ongoing monetary easing measures aim to address inflationary concerns and support economic growth in the region. A further reduction in interest rates would likely put additional pressure on the euro, especially against a strengthening dollar. Traders will be closely watching the tone of the ECB’s announcements, looking for any clues regarding future policy direction, which could set the stage for increased volatility in EUR/USD. US Economic Data in Focus In addition to the ECB's decision, the market’s attention will shift to the release of key economic data from the US later today. The USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims reports are set to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD. These reports are crucial in assessing the overall health of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected figures could further bolster the USD, applying additional downward pressure on the euro. Retail sales data will provide insight into consumer spending patterns, a key driver of US economic growth, while unemployment claims will shed light on labor market conditions. Should the data come in stronger than anticipated, it may reinforce expectations of a resilient US economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. Conversely, weaker data could weigh on the dollar and offer a temporary reprieve for EUR/USD. Technical Outlook: Demand Zones in Focus From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is currently reacting to a previously identified demand area. While the pair has experienced selling pressure, the price could see a bullish reaction if the upcoming US data or the ECB meeting provide supportive conditions for the euro. In case of a positive outcome for the EUR after the news releases, we may consider opening a long position. However, the best entry point for a long trade remains within the lower demand zone, which offers stronger support and a more favorable risk-reward setup. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a notable shift in market positioning. Retail traders have been increasing their short positions on the euro, while smart money (large institutional investors) has moved long on the currency. This positioning dynamic suggests the possibility of a reversal, as smart money often takes contrarian positions against retail traders. With the data releases and central bank decisions looming, today could present a long setup, especially if the market interprets the news favorably for the euro. Conclusion The EUR/USD continues to trade under pressure, driven by the strength of the USD and expectations surrounding the ECB’s upcoming monetary policy decision. As the day unfolds, the release of critical US economic data will further shape the pair’s direction, potentially adding volatility and creating opportunities for traders. While the euro remains under pressure, technical and positioning factors indicate that a bullish setup could emerge, particularly if the euro finds support in the lower demand zones or if the news flow turns in its favor. Traders are advised to exercise caution and patience, keeping a close eye on the upcoming data releases and market reactions before entering any positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD📌 Trading Instrument: EUR/USD 🔶 Bullish Breakout with Strong Potential 🔶 📝 Market Overview: After 16 days of consolidation, EUR/USD has finally broken out of the diagonal resistance, suggesting a bullish move ahead. I took a position just before the breakout, assessing the potential reward as extremely favorable compared to the risk. The trade has a remarkable Risk-Reward Ratio of 17.5:1, making it highly attractive even with a low initial risk. The breakout is supported by triple bullish divergences, signaling a strong potential for upward momentum. Moreover, the market is currently trading near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical point often signaling reversals. Additionally, we have a solid support zone just below, which has held firm for 750 days. The absence of any significant breakdown from this level strengthens the bullish case. If this support holds, it will continue to fuel the upward momentum. However, any breakdown here could signal a notable trend reversal, so I'm closely monitoring the price action. Given these technical signals, I opted for a day trade with the potential to extend it through the week, depending on price movement and relevant news flow. 🎯 Trade Details: Stop Loss (SL): Today’s low Take Profit (TP): 1.09528 This trade leverages several technical signals: Bullish divergence across multiple timeframes. Holding near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level. The strong support that has not broken for 750 days. The lack of a breakdown further solidifies the bullish outlook, and if the breakout gains momentum, this could be a highly profitable setup. 🚨 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly. Markets are highly volatile, and you should only invest money you are prepared to lose.
by RhinoAkaBear
EUR/USD Extends Losses on Turnaround Tuesday as USD StrengthensAs anticipated in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair extended its losses on Turnaround Tuesday, breaking through a weak demand area that had little support from underlying fundamentals. The euro continued to slide as the US Dollar (USD) maintained its upward momentum, driven by a combination of economic data and market sentiment. US Dollar Strength Backed by FOMC Minutes The ongoing strength of the USD has been bolstered by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the September 18 meeting. The minutes revealed that a "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers supported easing monetary policy with a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, they refrained from setting a specific timeline for future cuts, leaving room for further policy adjustments based on upcoming economic data. The hawkish undertone of the FOMC's position has given the USD additional support in recent weeks, fueling its rally against major currencies, including the EUR. FedWatch Tool Highlights Market Expectations According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting. This high probability reflects growing expectations of further monetary easing, which has helped sustain the greenback’s strength. Upcoming US Economic Data to Watch Looking ahead, the market's focus will shift to Thursday, when the US releases key economic data, including USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD, as they will offer insights into the strength of the US economy and provide further direction for the USD. Traders will closely watch these releases to gauge the health of the US economy and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions. Strong retail sales data and lower unemployment claims could strengthen the USD further, while weaker-than-expected figures may signal the need for more aggressive monetary easing. Market Positioning and Technical Outlook From a market positioning standpoint, recent data shows a shift in sentiment among speculators and commercial traders. Speculators have reduced their net long positions in the EUR, indicating decreased confidence in the euro’s near-term prospects. Conversely, commercial traders have increased their net long positions, suggesting that some institutional investors believe the EUR may be undervalued at current levels. From a technical perspective, we are closely monitoring two key demand areas on the chart. The price is nearing these zones, and we are waiting to see how the market reacts before making any decisions about entering long positions. If the price finds support at one of these demand areas, it could signal a potential reversal or retracement. However, as always, patience is crucial in waiting for confirmation before executing any trades. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the USD continues to dominate, fueled by expectations of further monetary easing and strong economic data. While the pair is approaching key demand areas, traders should exercise caution and wait for clearer signals before entering long positions. With Thursday's US data releases on the horizon, the markets are set for increased volatility, and these reports will likely shape the next phase of EUR/USD's direction. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Remains Strong as JPY Struggles for Upside The USD/JPY pair continued its upward trend on Tuesday, maintaining strength despite limited upside potential for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The JPY's inability to gain ground is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Coupled with a generally positive risk tone in the markets, this has kept the JPY, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, from making any meaningful gains. US Data and Market Outlook Tuesday’s economic calendar for the US is relatively quiet, with no major data releases expected. However, the spotlight will turn to Thursday’s key economic reports, which include the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject more volatility into the market and could influence the trajectory of the US Dollar and other major currency pairs, including USD/JPY. Given the strength of the USD near its two-month peak, the upcoming data could further support the dollar, limiting any potential upside for the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar's resilience continues to exert pressure on the JPY, keeping the pair on a bullish path. Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Targeting 152.000 From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair appears poised to extend its rally, with a potential target around the 152.000 level. This area could be reached following the release of the key US economic reports on Thursday, which may provide the necessary momentum for further gains. The technical outlook is supported by the broader strength of the USD and the lack of strong upside drivers for the JPY. The chart of JPY futures also reflects the challenging environment for the Yen, signaling continued weakness. Chart Overview: JPY Futures Chart As shown in the chart, the JPY remains under pressure in the futures market, further confirming our outlook for continued USD/JPY strength. Strategy: Patience is Key After successfully closing our previous USD/JPY trade in profit, we are now waiting for a more favorable area to enter a new position. With key economic data on the horizon, patience remains essential as we await clearer signals from the market. In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain its bullish trend in the near term, with a potential target of 152.000. The combination of US Dollar strength and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s rate policy should keep the Yen on the defensive, at least until there are clearer indications of future central bank actions. For now, we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the next opportunity to re-enter the market. PREVIOUS CLOSED POSITION: ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/JPY in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD Fluctuates in a Narrow Range Amid Economic DataOn Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair traded within a narrow range between 1.3077 and 1.3080, showing a slight rebound from a demand area. Despite the modest movement, the market is still waiting for more significant developments before making larger moves. UK Economic Data Supports GBP Stability Earlier on Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released key employment data, which provided some support for the British Pound. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the three months leading up to August eased to 4.0%, down from 4.1% in July. Additionally, Employment Change figures showed an increase of 373K in August, up from 265K in July, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. However, the report also showed a slight softening in wage inflation, as the Average Earnings excluding Bonus dropped to 4.9%, down from 5.1%. While wage growth moderated, the overall labor market data was positive enough to give the Pound some stability in the early session. US Data and Market Outlook The economic calendar is light for the US on Tuesday, with no major data releases expected. The market’s focus will shift to Thursday when the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are due to be released. These reports are expected to bring more volatility to the GBP/USD pair, as they will provide insights into the strength of the US economy and the potential direction of the US Dollar. Until these data are released, the British Pound may continue to hold onto small gains, but the overall market mood remains cautious. Technical Outlook: Bearish Momentum Ahead? From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, and we anticipate a potential continuation of this trend. While the pair has found some temporary support around the current levels, we expect the bearish momentum to continue until the pair reaches a more solid demand zone around the 1.2800 level. Until the pair approaches this level, we are refraining from opening any new positions, waiting for more clarity on market direction and potential retracement signals. Conclusion GBP/USD is holding steady in a narrow range as UK labor market data provides temporary support. However, the overall outlook remains cautious, with the potential for further bearish pressure. Investors should keep an eye on Thursday’s US data releases, which could trigger more significant movements in the pair. For now, we are waiting for GBP/USD to reach a stronger demand area before considering any new positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBP/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Starts Tuesday with a Slight Rebound BUT...The EUR/USD pair began the Tuesday session with a modest rebound after touching its lowest level since early August. The pair is currently trading around 1.09090, showing some signs of recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious as traders await key economic data releases and central bank policy announcements. Market Sentiment and USD Resilience On Monday, the US Dollar (USD) remained resilient against its major counterparts, thanks to the lack of significant macroeconomic data releases and a generally cautious market mood. This led to a slight decline in EUR/USD, as the greenback held its ground. With no high-impact economic reports due early this week, the USD's strength was mainly driven by investor risk aversion and uncertainty surrounding upcoming data. Key Upcoming Data: Eurozone Focus The focus for EUR/USD traders will shift to the upcoming Eurostat Industrial Production data for August and the ZEW Survey from Germany’s ZEW economic research institute. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for both Germany and the Eurozone is expected to show improvement in October, and any upside surprise could offer the Euro some support, potentially lifting EUR/USD from its recent lows. However, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday. With the ECB's stance still unclear, traders may hold back from making large moves until there’s more clarity on the central bank's next steps. US Data: Thursday in Focus While this week started quietly, Thursday is set to bring more significant economic releases, particularly from the US. Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are all scheduled for release, which could provide further direction for the USD. Until then, the EUR might have some room to recover, but the overall outlook remains cautious, and further USD strength could pressure the pair lower. Technical Outlook: Bearish Pressure Persists From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains within a weak demand area, which could offer a minor rebound. However, the broader trend suggests that bearish pressure could continue, pushing the pair towards lower demand levels. The COT (Commitment of Traders) report indicates that retail traders turned short on the Euro last week, while institutional investors (often referred to as "smart money") became more bullish. This divergence suggests that the market may be searching for a more solid demand zone before any substantial retracement occurs. Our analysis points to further bearish momentum, potentially targeting the Demand Number 2 or even lower towards Demand Number 3 before the pair finds meaningful support. Outlook and Strategy: Patience Until Thursday At present, we are holding back on opening any positions in EUR/USD, as the situation remains uncertain, and key data releases on Thursday could significantly shift market dynamics. While the pair may see some minor gains in the short term, the outlook is still dominated by bearish sentiment. We expect more clarity following the ECB’s policy announcement and the US data releases later this week. In conclusion, the EUR/USD's slight rebound on Tuesday provides a temporary relief, but the market remains cautious as key economic data and central bank decisions loom. Traders should remain patient and watch for stronger signals from upcoming events before making any substantial moves. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
GBP/USD: Downtrend ExtendedHello traders! Today, GBP/USD made an impressive reversal above 1.3000 on Monday, as the market turned cautious ahead of a slew of important economic data from the UK due for release this week. The wage and employment reports will kick off on Tuesday morning, followed by notable CPI and PPI figures on Wednesday. Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD remains stuck in a downtrend channel, with strong resistance at 1.3300 still intact. This suggests that the market is unlikely to make a significant breakout in the short term without fresh momentum.
Short
by ConanTradingFX
The Impact of Overtrading on Trading PerformanceOvertrading and micromanaging trades are significant factors that contribute to losses for many traders. Often, traders fail to recognize when they are overtrading because they lose sight of the limits that indicate when to stop. Over time, this behavior can become a habitual pattern, ultimately resulting in financial losses. In this review, we will explore what overtrading is, examine the associated risks, and propose effective strategies to address the issue. 📍 Overtrading: How to Optimize Your Efforts Pareto's Law states that 20% of effort often yields 80% of the results. When we apply this principle to everyday life, several observations come to light: 20% of people own 80% of the world's assets. 80% of sales come from 20% of customers. 20% of managers account for 80% of transactions. The same principle holds true in trading: 80% of your results stem from just 20% of your efforts. Many traders overlook this insight, striving to "give their best" while in reality, 80% of their efforts may be largely ineffective. Overtrading reflects both the actions and mindset of a trader who is overly focused on profit. This relentless pursuit can lead to stress, fatigue, and ultimately, significant losses. Overtrading often arises from improper prioritization of tasks and strategies. Recognizing and addressing this issue can help traders optimize their efforts and improve their performance. 📍 Optimize Performance To effectively manage overtrading and enhance your trading success, consider implementing the following methods: 🔹 Set a Minimum Desired Income Profit: Establish achievable profit targets for different time frames—daily, weekly, and monthly. Ensure these targets are realistic and grounded in your trading experience. If you find that you haven't met your target within the first week, resist the urge to chase after immediate results; focus instead on the bigger picture. It's possible that you might still achieve your overall monthly goal. 🔹 Concentrate on Specific Tools and Actions: Narrow your focus to a limited set of trading tools and methods. Avoid spreading your attention too thin across various markets or strategies. By concentrating your efforts, you can deepen your expertise in specific areas and improve your decision-making, ultimately leading to better results. 🔹 Evaluate the Effectiveness of Your Trading System: Maintain a detailed trading journal where you log each trade. This journal will serve as a valuable resource for analyzing your performance over time. Use it to collect data based on various criteria, such as the most productive times for trading, the most profitable assets, and any recurring patterns in your successes and failures. By evaluating this information, you can identify areas for improvement and optimize your trading strategy for better outcomes. 📍 What to Avoid in Trading? To maintain a disciplined and effective trading strategy, it's crucial to avoid certain behaviors that can lead to overtrading or poor decision-making. Here are key pitfalls to steer clear of: ◼️ Constant Observation of Charts: Resist the urge to monitor charts continuously. Instead, focus on selecting a specific asset and trading session, making trades primarily during periods of maximum volatility. This practice will help you avoid unnecessary stress and maintain clarity in your decision-making. ◼️ Pointless Forum Browsing: Spending excessive time on forums in hopes of discovering valuable advice or a superior trading method can be unproductive. While some insights can be helpful, relying too much on external opinions may divert you from your own strategies and increase dependence on other traders' perspectives. ◼️ Chaotic Timeframe Switching: Avoid jumping between different timeframes in search of trading signals. This erratic behavior often leads to confusion and can negatively impact your ability to make sound trading decisions. Stick to a consistent timeframe that aligns with your trading strategy and risk tolerance. 📍 Understanding Trade Micromanagement Micromanagement in trading refers to the excessive control and analysis of trades that often results in diminished returns. Common behaviors associated with micromanagement include: 🔹 Monitoring Every Market Tick: Constantly watching minute-to-minute price changes can lead to anxiety and impulsive decisions. 🔹 Frequent Adjustment of Stop-Losses and Take-Profits: Regularly changing these levels can indicate a lack of confidence in your trading system and may lead to inefficient outcomes. 🔹 Switching to Short Timeframes: Lower timeframes often bring more market noise and may lead to overtrading rather than clearer signals. 🔹 Seeking Confirmation from Third-Party Resources: Looking for validation of your trades or decisions from forums, analysts, or other traders can undermine your conviction and disrupt your trading plan. 🔹 Unplanned Changes to Position Sizes : Modifying your trade size without a systematic approach can lead to increased risk and potential loss. The underlying reason for micromanagement often stems from a lack of trust in the trading system and a fear of losses. Overcoming this psychological barrier requires time, practice, and rigorous backtesting to boost your confidence in your approach. 📍 Eliminating Overtrading: Optimizing Time and Efficiency 🔸 Reduce Screen Time: Aim to minimize the need to constantly be in front of your computer. Build confidence in your trading decisions by ensuring your trading system is effective, learning how to safeguard your positions, and actively working to minimize risks. 🔸 Avoid Impulsive Trades: Resist the urge to seize every trading opportunity that arises. Focus on identifying the strategies and conditions that yield the best results before opening a trade. 🔸 Learn from Mistakes: Regularly analyze your trading errors and strive to avoid repeating them. Dedicate time to reviewing your trade log to assess what went well and what could be improved. 🔸 Prioritize Your Trades: Be selective about which trades to pursue. Prioritization can help you focus on the most promising opportunities and enhance your overall performance. 📍 Conclusion Remember, time is your most valuable resource. Those who truly enjoy their work and take the time to plan effectively will achieve greater success than individuals who spend all their time merely working. Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Education
by Lingrid
15
GBP/USD Recovery Stalls Amid Mixed U.S. Data but....The GBP/USD pair saw modest gains in early Friday trading after closing marginally lower on Thursday. Although there is potential for the pair to extend its recovery, our outlook remains firmly on the bearish side. Recent U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures, has added to the complexity of market dynamics, impacting both the British pound and the U.S. dollar as traders assess the implications for future monetary policy. U.S. Inflation and Labor Market Update On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released key inflation data, revealing a slight softening in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI). Year-over-year, inflation ticked down to 2.4% in September, a small decline from August’s 2.5%. While this offered some relief to inflation hawks, the core CPI—excluding the more volatile food and energy prices—rose by 3.3% on an annual basis, higher than the market's forecast of 3.2%. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased by 0.3%, signaling persistent underlying price pressures. Adding to the mix, the latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report showed a significant rise to 258,000 for the week ending October 5, up from 225,000 the previous week. This unexpected jump has revived concerns over a potential cooling in the labor market, complicating the outlook for future Federal Reserve policy. While rising jobless claims could increase the likelihood of a rate cut, persistent core inflation suggests that the Fed may hesitate to loosen monetary policy aggressively. Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment Prevails From a technical perspective, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report offers valuable insights into market positioning. The data shows that retail traders are aggressively long, while "smart money"—institutional investors—remains flat, indicating a lack of commitment to the bullish side. This divergence suggests that the broader market sentiment still leans bearish, even as the GBP/USD attempts to recover. For now, we are holding off on opening any positions, instead waiting for a clearer opportunity to emerge. Our focus is on a possible price drop toward a key demand area, where we plan to evaluate the conditions for a potential long setup. This level would provide a more favorable risk-reward scenario to enter a position aligned with a recovery strategy. Conclusion While the GBP/USD has shown early signs of a potential recovery, the broader outlook remains bearish, with mixed U.S. economic data adding uncertainty to the market's direction. The softening inflation figure offers some hope for a dovish shift in the Fed's policy, but the persistently high core CPI and rising jobless claims complicate the situation. Until clearer signals emerge, our strategy is to wait for a deeper price drop toward a demand area to position ourselves for a potential rebound. In the meantime, traders are advised to remain cautious, as volatile data releases and shifting market sentiment could lead to sudden swings in the GBP/USD pair in the coming sessions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GBPUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD:US Jobless Claims Surge - Analysis.US Jobless Claims Surge, EUR/USD Rebounds Amid Mixed Market Sentiment The latest U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 4 unexpectedly rose, reaching 258,000—marking the highest level of new jobless benefit seekers since June 2023. This spike has captured the attention of market participants, as it hints at rising unemployment pressures in the U.S. labor market, adding a new layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's future rate policy. While these higher-than-expected claims suggest some softening in the labor market, the Fed’s battle against inflation continues, leaving investors split on the timing and scale of any rate cuts. In line with our analysis from yesterday, we anticipated a possible bullish impulse for the EUR/USD, which has materialized as expected. The pair rebounded slightly from a key demand area, with the current outlook pointing to a potential retest of the 1.1000 level or slightly above, touching the supply zone. However, given the mixed signals in the macroeconomic environment, we are not taking any positions at the moment, opting to wait for a clearer scenario to emerge before making any trade decisions. The Complex Rate Environment Thursday’s data, which revealed rising unemployment figures alongside persistent inflation concerns, has muddied the outlook for the Fed’s next move. On one hand, the higher jobless claims have fueled speculation that the Fed might lean toward rate cuts in the near future, aiming to provide relief to the labor market. On the other hand, inflation remains a key challenge, tempering expectations for any aggressive or immediate policy shifts. The juxtaposition of these factors has left rate markets in flux, with traders caught between hopes of a dovish pivot and the reality of persistent price pressures. This uncertainty extends to the broader financial markets, as investors attempt to gauge how these competing narratives will affect currency flows. The U.S. dollar (USD), as a result, remains a focal point for traders, with the Greenback's movement largely driven by fluctuations in rate expectations and economic data. EUR/USD Outlook With the U.S. labor market softening and inflation still a concern, Fiber traders (EUR/USD) are closely monitoring these developments. On Friday, significant European economic data releases are notably absent, leaving the EUR/USD at the mercy of U.S. dollar flows as the trading week draws to a close. As we await more clarity on the Fed’s stance, the pair's short-term direction remains dependent on broader macro trends in the U.S. Our strategy, for now, is to observe how the price interacts with the 1.1000 supply zone. A clear rejection could pave the way for another bearish impulse in the EUR/USD, but we will refrain from entering the market until a more definitive signal emerges. The next few trading sessions will likely provide critical insights into the future direction of the U.S. dollar and, by extension, the EUR/USD pair. In conclusion, while the rising U.S. jobless claims offer some support for rate cut expectations, the stubbornly high inflation complicates the Fed's path forward. As the EUR/USD hovers around key levels, traders are advised to stay patient and let the market reveal its next move before jumping in. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
3
Audusd confirm analysis read the caption The AUDUSD fell to - and through the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August low at 0.67146 late yesterday, but bounced higher in the Asian session today. The high price in the Asian session extended up to 0.67417 which was just short of the low of a swing area 0.67429. The subsequent fall back to the downside helped by CPI and initial jobless claims did see a new low reached at 0.66997. That low was ahead of a swing area between 0.6685 and 0.6696. The 100 day moving averages between those levels as well
by Mrsam36
AUD/USD Declines Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Key Economic DatThe Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) after key economic data released on Thursday added downward pressure to the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair. The market is also reacting to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with risk appetite fading as concerns mount. According to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority (IBA), Israel’s security cabinet has decided to issue a strong response to a recent Iranian attack, which saw Iran launch over 200 ballistic missiles and drone strikes on Israel on Tuesday night. This escalating conflict has weighed heavily on risk assets like the Australian dollar, as investors move toward safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar in times of geopolitical instability. Geopolitical Tensions Drive Risk-Off Sentiment The increased volatility in the Middle East is driving investors to reassess their exposure to risk-sensitive assets, with the AUD/USD pair feeling the impact. Rising tensions between Israel and Iran have spooked markets, dampening risk appetite and pushing traders toward safe-haven currencies like the US dollar. As geopolitical risks escalate, risk-off sentiment is likely to continue pressuring the Australian dollar, which is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. Key Economic Data Adds to AUD's Weakness Adding to the AUD’s woes, the recent economic data released on Thursday has contributed to its decline against the USD. The data has underscored the challenges facing the Australian economy, with weaker-than-expected results further diminishing the currency’s appeal. In contrast, the US dollar has remained buoyant, supported by stronger economic fundamentals and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve. Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Faces Further Downside From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair reversed after touching a key Supply area, which aligned with our previous forecast. This reversal is consistent with the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which shows that retail traders have aggressively increased their long positions, typically a contrarian indicator signaling further downside. The pair is now poised for a potential continuation of the downtrend, with bears likely eyeing additional levels of support as the US dollar strengthens amid both geopolitical concerns and a favorable economic backdrop. Conclusion: Bearish Outlook for AUD/USD The combination of rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and weaker domestic economic data has placed significant pressure on the Australian dollar. As risk sentiment continues to shift away from risk-sensitive assets like the AUD, the pair is likely to experience further downside, especially if geopolitical risks escalate and the US dollar remains strong. Traders should monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as well as any further economic data that could influence the direction of the AUD/USD pair. For now, the bearish momentum remains intact, and the pair could see continued weakness in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD Decline Amid Strong US Dollar Ahead of Key Economic DataAs forecasted in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure, continuing its descent over the past two days, reaching around 1.09300 during the London session. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that retail traders remain bullish on the pair. Despite this, the price is approaching one of the two demand areas we've identified, though we are currently awaiting a possible bullish impulse if the price drops to the lower demand zone. US Dollar Strength and Market Sentiment Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains near its highest level since mid-August as traders have adjusted their expectations regarding a potential 50 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The likelihood of such a cut has been largely priced out, with current market sentiment suggesting a 20% chance that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting. This expectation was reinforced by the hawkish tone in the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday, which underpinned the USD's strength. DXY ( USD ) Daily Chart The elevated yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, which remains above the 4% threshold, continues to support the US Dollar, acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. The stronger USD, coupled with market sentiment around potential Fed actions, has weighed heavily on the Euro in recent sessions. Upcoming Economic Data and Market Impact Today brings several important economic releases that could inject volatility into the market, including: Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) CPI y/y CPI m/m Unemployment Claims These reports are key indicators of inflation and employment in the United States, and they could shift the market's outlook for the US Dollar. Currently, the forecasts suggest that the data may work against the USD, potentially leading to an initial bullish move in EUR/USD. However, the ultimate impact will depend on how closely the actual data aligns with expectations. Our Strategy: Waiting for a Key Demand Support At this time, we are not opening any positions as we await the price to reach the lowest demand support level. A potential bullish reversal may occur once this level is tested, and we’ll be closely monitoring market movements following today's key economic data releases. Patience remains essential as we look for confirmation of a potential bullish setup. Conclusion The EUR/USD pair continues its downward trend, driven by USD strength amid expectations of steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve. As key economic data is released today, we anticipate increased market volatility, which could present trading opportunities. For now, we are waiting for the pair to reach critical demand levels before considering any new positions. Stay tuned for further updates as we continue to monitor market developments. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EURUSD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
7
USDCAD Extends Rally as Strong US Labor Data Lifts the GreenbackThe USD/CAD pair continues its upward momentum, extending its rally to around 1.3645 during Tuesday's early London session. The recent surge in the US Dollar (USD) has been driven by stronger-than-expected labor market data released last Friday, which caused traders to reassess their expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a robust increase in employment figures, along with a decline in the Unemployment Rate, which has reduced the likelihood of more substantial rate cuts by the Fed. Investors now anticipate a more modest 25 basis points (bps) cut in the upcoming November meeting, rather than the previously expected 50 bps. This sentiment shift has provided a solid foundation for the USD to gain traction against its counterparts, including the Canadian Dollar (CAD). In our previous USD/CAD forecast, shared here: USD/CAD Rebounds from Demand Zone Bullish Continuation in Sight, we highlighted a key demand zone where the pair found strong support. As anticipated, the price rebounded exactly from our identified area, and we are now approaching our take profit target. Looking Ahead: Impact of Upcoming US Economic Data Tomorrow and the day after, significant US economic data releases are scheduled, including reports on inflation and unemployment claims, which could further impact the direction of the USD. A continuation of strong economic performance may push the USD/CAD pair higher, while any signs of economic weakness could lead to a brief retracement. Conclusion: Holding the Position for Further Gains Given the favorable technical setup and the strong support from recent labor data, we are holding our long position in USD/CAD. The upcoming economic releases will provide additional clarity, but for now, the momentum remains on the side of the US Dollar. A potential continuation of the bullish trend is in sight, with some volatility expected as traders react to fresh economic news. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
3