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Forex-usdcad

UCAD Bulls Look for 3rd Test After Sept. '24 Highs TouchOANDA:USDCAD Bulls were able to find support at the Sept. 2024 Highs after having traveled down a Falling Support for the past 2 months! Now we see Bulls pushing price higher creating a Rising Support with 2 tests having been successful and currently coming down for a 3rd test! Now Price has already broken a Previous Level of Structure which was a Past Resistance on June 4th. This level also lands right at the 34 EMA and based on the Bollinger Bands, this test will also be a Mean Reversion where Price after having traveled in one direction will revert back to the mean of the Bollinger Bands for Continuation, which in this case will be Bullish! After the 2nd Test of the Rising Support, we can see a Massive amount of Volume enters. Price also is trading Above the 50 on the RSI and is currently coming down to test that level. I am looking for Price to test the 1.3683 area and if Price shows support for a 3rd Test, this will be a great opportunity for Long Positions! Fundamentally, USD will be bombarded heavy news being CPI numbers with analysts forecasting a .2% Increase in Inflation! Also PPI, Unemployment Claims and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
UCAD Bears Ready to Break 2 Month Long Falling Support??OANDA:USDCAD has been supported by a Falling Support Trend line since August 14th and here soon Price could potentially give us a Bearish Break to that Trend line! Once a Breakout is validated, we could look for a Retest Set-Up for some Short Opportunities to take Price down to the Support Zone created by the August and September 2024 Lows. An interesting fact to point out is if you observe the reaction of Price when it tests the Falling Support, we can see Price arc and the following reactions arc smaller, suggesting Bulls are losing strength on the push off of the Falling Support! Price Action is being heavily driven by Fundamentals in the markets this week: -USD- ADP Non-Farm Employment - Previous 60K / Forecast 111K / Actual 37K ISM Services PMI - Previous 51.6 / Forecast 52 / Actual 49.9 ISM Manufacturing PMI - Previous 48.7 / Forecast 49.3 / Actual 48.5 ISM Manufacturing Prices - Previous 69.8 / Forecast 70.2 / Actual 48.5 Unemployment Claims - Previous 239K / Forecast 236K / Actual 247K *Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment Rate are to be released tomorrow -CAD- BOC held Interest Rates @ 2.75% Ivey PMI - Previous 47.9 / Forecast 48.3 / Actual 48.9 *Employment Change and Unemployment are to be released tomorrow With BOC holding Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve possibly looking to cut rates because of a "softening labor market", this could fuel CAD to overcome the pair and put Bears in control to pull Prices lower! www.tradingview.com
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
USDCAD Makes Retest At 200 EMA After Bull Trap BreakoutOANDA:USDCAD here on the 1Hr Chart has printed an Ascending Channel and Bears have made a Breakout! Price currently looks to be on its way to retesting the Breakout of the Channel with the 200 EMA and Upper Bollinger Bands sitting at the Rising Support adding some heavy Bearish Pressure. Fundamentally, BOC will be releasing GDP m/m ( Gross Domestic Product ) numbers tomorrow morning at 0730 AM CST with analysts forecasting a .3% Increase at .1% with Previous being -0.2%.
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
4
After a huge move, USD/CAD may be due to reboundUSD/CAD has strengthened significantly over the past few days as markets have been shaken by President Trump’s new trade war with Canada and the rest of the world. That said, USD/CAD may be due for a pause in its recent rally and could consolidate somewhat, having reached some key technical indicators and support levels. The loonie’s relative strength index fell to 29, while USD/CAD dropped below the lower Bollinger Band at CA$1.387. This magnitude of movement suggests that USD/CAD is currently oversold and may be due for either a short-term rebound or a period of sideways consolidation. The pair could also bounce back towards resistance at CA$1.416 or the 20-day moving average at CA$1.421. However, if USD/CAD breaks support at CA$1.3870, it could signal that further strengthening lies ahead, with the potential to drop towards CA$1.359, which served as an important area of support and resistance between December 2023 and October 2024. USD/CAD could continue strengthening against the dollar; the greenback has weakened versus multiple currencies, and any pause in the dollar’s current downtrend may be short-lived, due to possible massive deleveraging out of the US and capital flow back to their nations of origin. Still, after such a significant move, USD/CAD seems potentially due for at least a short-term period of consolidation before the uptrend resumes. Written by Michael J Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
by cmcmarkets
UCAD Bears Turn Liquid After 4% Decline From Feb. HighOANDA:USDCAD has been trading in a Sideways Consolidation for 2 months now and last week finally delivered a Breakout! After the massive rally to 1.47926, price immediately plummeted down to not only fall back into the Consolidation Range but to then Breakout of the Support of that Consolidation. This Breakout is followed by massive Bearish Volume on top of RSI breaking down below 50! Price has satisfied all the Breakout Rules determining its validity, now to wait for a Retest of the broken support around the 23.6% Fibonacci Level or approx. 1.43 area for potential Short Opportunities to take down to the 1.41 area! Fundamentally, USD: Tuesday - Empire State Manufacturing Index/ President Trump Speaks Wednesday - FOMC Meeting Minutes Thursday - Unemployment Claims/ Philly Fed Manufacturing Index/ Crude Oil Inventories Friday - Flash Manufacturing PMI/ Flash Services PMI/ Existing Home Sales CAD: Tuesday - CPI Friday - Retail Sales/ BOC Gov Macklem Speaks
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
USD/CAD Bouncing at Trendline Support after Trudeau ResignsChart Analysis: The USD/CAD pair has been in a steady uptrend, but recent price action shows signs of consolidation below the recent highs at 1.4450. The trendline support remains intact, keeping the bullish structure valid. 1️⃣ Key Support Zone: The trendline from October lows aligns near 1.4300, acting as immediate support for the pair. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): At 1.4111, providing dynamic support if the trendline breaks. 200-day SMA (red): At 1.3772, indicating the broader bullish bias. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 60.26, cooling off from overbought levels, indicating room for further consolidation. MACD: Positive but showing signs of a potential slowdown, with momentum waning slightly. What to Watch: A daily close below the trendline at 1.4300 could trigger further downside toward the 1.4111 support (50-day SMA). Alternatively, holding above the trendline could attract buyers, pushing the pair back toward 1.4450 and potentially targeting new highs. The bullish trend remains intact, but price action near the trendline will be critical in determining the next move. -MW
by FOREXcom
TradeCityPro | USDCAD : Divergence Signals and Key Levels👋Welcome to TradeCityPro! In this analysis, I will examine the USDCAD pair from the forex market. The analysis is conducted on the daily timeframe. ⏳ Daily Timeframe: Resistance and Potential Reversal In the daily timeframe, we observe a range (box) between 1.32179 (support) and 1.38632 (resistance) that was recently broken. Currently, the price has reached the 1.40777 resistance level. ✨ A noticeable divergence is present in the RSI oscillator, with a trigger for this divergence being the break below the 55.94 level on the RSI. If this trigger is activated, the price could enter a correction phase. 📈 At the moment, after breaking out of the 1.38632 level and retesting it as support, the price is consolidating below the 1.40777 resistance. If this resistance is broken, the next target will be 1.43824. 🔽 However, if the RSI divergence is activated, a deeper correction may occur. In that case, the price could re-enter the range, with the first support at 1.36023 and the second support at the range's bottom, 1.32179. 💼 Considering the weakening momentum seen in the candles and the divergence signals, the likelihood of a correction is increasing. However, I personally prefer to wait for confirmation from the price to better identify future trends. 📝 Final Thoughts This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice. Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
by tradecitypro
USDCAD SellUSDCAD looks like a sell on the H4 and has been moving steadily down from my last entry in UC. I believe that there will be a potential double top move looking to move towards the 1.37800s and since we are within that range it is clearly looking for prior price action to do a pullback or continue the reversal pattern of a downtrend. I am looking for this mainly to be a day trade, however, I will also be placing a swing trade for my other trading accounts to bare in mind to also use PROPER risk management. RSI also indicates that we are long overdue a major short and will see it within the next few candles how far USDCAD can go. I also have spotted trend patterns go back to July 25th of this year and it extending all the way down for a month straight crashing USDCAD all the way down till the very bottom of the RSI. ENTRY: 1.37951 TP 1 (Day Trade): 1.1.36230 TP 2 (Swing Trade): 1.35434 TP 3: (extended swing trade) 1.34396 SL: 30 Pips from entry Please message me if you have any questions! Please enjoy your day and be sure to follow our page!
Short
by KingTraderFX
2
USD/CAD Threatens a Big BreakoutThe North American cross of the US and Canadian dollars has been on quite a run of late. The pair has rallied for 11 of the last 12 days to test its April high near 1.3845 as of writing. Interestingly, the pair formed a potential double bottom pattern in the interim, hinting at the potential for a more extended rally from here if that resistance level gives way. For now, the key question will be whether we see a weekly close above the April high, or whether a near-term pullback (which traders would likely see as a buying opportunity) is more likely. -MW
by FOREXcom
USDCAD 1D Analysis: Anticipating a Breakout📅 Let's dive into today's analysis. We'll be focusing on the USDCAD pair in the 1D time frame. ⌛️ Long-term Range Box In the 1D time frame, we observe a large, long-term range box that spans 664 days. This box has experienced a complete High Wave Cycle (HWC) range, which is confirmed by the flat SMA99, indicating minimal slope and nearly flat movement over a long period. ♟ Key Levels Range Box Bottom: 1.31434 Range Box Top: 1.38725 Breaking either of these lines will likely initiate a new trend for the HWC. Medium Wave Cycle (MWC) Support: 1.35973 MWC Resistance: 1.37805 🪤 Momentum Indicators As discussed in yesterday’s analysis, momentum oscillators like RSI are less effective in range-bound markets. In this case, although the RSI broke the 43.14 support, the market did not gain bearish momentum because of the ranging condition. This exemplifies why RSI should not be heavily relied upon in such scenarios. 📉 Bearish Scenario If a candle closes below the 1.35973 area, we can expect the price to move towards the bottom of the range box at 1.31434. This support is crucial and could push the price back to the top of the range. 📈 Bullish Scenario Conversely, if the price breaks above 1.37805, it may move towards the top of the box at 1.38725. However, this move is less likely due to the weakness observed in the green candles, indicating weaker buyer strength. 🔍 Candle Analysis Examining the candles shows that reaching the top of the range box takes significant time, with small green candles. Conversely, reaching the bottom of the box from the top happens quickly with strong red candles. Given the weak green candles in the latest upward move that didn't even reach the top of the box, the likelihood of a downward breakout is higher. 🎯 Target Levels In case of a downward breakout, switching to the weekly time frame helps identify important levels: First Target: 1.30183 (0.5 Fibonacci level) Second Target: 1.27624 Third Target: 1.22926 (a very significant support for this pair) 📝 Conclusion The USDCAD pair is currently trading within a long-term range, showing weak buyer momentum and stronger bearish tendencies. A breakout from this range, particularly to the downside, seems more probable given the current market conditions. Traders should watch key levels closely for confirmation and be ready to act accordingly once a breakout occurs. 🧠💼 Always remember that trading futures involves inherent risks, and improper risk management can lead to margin calls. Stick to your capital management principles and use stop-loss orders, aiming for an initial risk-to-reward ratio of 2. 🫶 If you found this analysis helpful and want to support me, please like and share this analysis. Feel free to leave your comments or suggest a pair you'd like me to analyze next.
Short
by itsparham96
1
UCAD Correction to 1.3300 Levels!!Here I have USDCAD on the Daily Chart! Since its High in April @ 1.38461, we have made multiple attempts at breaking this Support Zone @ ( 1.3627 - 1.3615 ) Acting as a Roof, we have a Falling Resistance where Price tested a couple times then brought False Breaks the past 2 weeks with Price dipping down to this Support!! Based off the High of April and the Failed Attempt at a Higher High @ 1.37434, we are potentially looking at a Correction Wave!! Now, for this idea to play out, we need price to make a VALID Break Down below this Support Zone! To then find Lower Support making a LOWER LOW confirming price to continue DOWN!! Upon which we should see price come up to the ( 1.3627 - 1.3615 ) Support Zone to test as RESISTANCE!! Which then will give us our Selling Opportunities! Based on the Fib-Ext Tool, we could see price Plummet to the ( 1.33278 - 1.32295 ) Range Target!
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
USDCAD Bullish Trading IdeaDisclaimer, these ideas are for my records of what I see in the market after taking a trade. It will help me document the reason of why I took the trade so I can have a track record. And as such, this is not a financial advice. I've noticed that at the monthly timeframe the pair is doing a wyckoff distribution schematic. Then at the weekly timeframe, the pair once more is doing a wyckoff distribution schematic. At the daily timeframe, I've identified a potential area of interest delimited by the fibonacci levels 1, 0.5, and 0 (orange lines). I believe the price is trying to reach that area of interest to get right of the liquidity delimited with the lines that have the $$$ above them. At the 4 hour timeframe, the price appears to want to go higher, potentially giving strenght to my trade idea. Given these findings, I'll be entering a buy position until it reaches the fibonacci levels, then I'll start looking for sells.
Long
by jask_skull
1
Strifor || NZDUSD-31/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The situation with the New Zealand dollar, as well as with the Australian dollar, forces us to freeze all purchases for now and consider more sales. We are targeting the support level of 0.60713 , which is where the approach is likely to come in the near future. A more likely setup is a maximum drop from current prices, especially at the beginning of the American session (scenario №1). Less likely scenario №2 involves growth at the moment to 0.61670 , which may just happen against the backdrop of the publication of today's data. The target for the fall is level 0.60713 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
3