USDJPY Potential Pennant Triple ThreatFirst,
In the Higher Timeframes (4Hr - Weekly), we can see that USDJPY is traveling down a Descending Channel since Jan 10th. Price tried pushing higher in March but ultimately fell back within the Channel beginning of this month (April) resulting only in a False Breakout but also creating a Fair Value Gap from 148.698 - 147.429.
Now down on the Lower Timeframes (15min - 1Hr) we can see that Price has created a Fair Value Gap from 146.546 - 146.226 with current Price Action forming a Pennant Pattern just above this FVG which lines up with Previous Highs (Past Resistance Level) and with Volume Decreasing, suggests we could see a Breakout soon! Now Based on the Pennant Pattern being Neutral meaning can break either way, creates the first 2 Bullish Scenarios being either a Breakout and Retest of the Pennant pattern going Bullish OR Bearish.
*Breakout will be Validated if followed by an Increase in Volume!
Scenario 1 -If BULLISH BREAKOUT - The Retest will come at the Falling Resistance of the Pattern.
Scenario 2 -If BEARISH BREAKOUT - This could suggest Price is looking to "Fill The Gap" being the FVG
** If Scenario 2 happens, this Price Movement could be looking to fulfill a Fibonacci Retracement of the Swing Low @ 145.041 to the Swing High @ 146.904, where the 38.2% Level lays at the Upper Limit of the FVG and the 50% Level lays at the Lower Limit of the FVG with the Consequent Encroachment right in the middle @ 146.385.
—Both of this ideas suggest USD will need to gain strength which could mean fundamentally:
FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday, April 9th & CPI (Consumer Price Index), the instrument used to measure Inflation, on Thursday, April 10th released results will be heavily relied on to see if there's anymore input on potential effects of Tariffs.
Scenario 3 - Fair Value Gap Inversion could suggest bad news fundamentally is released for USD and gives JPY Bears (Sellers) the ability to pull price down, keeping Price Consolidated further within the HTF Descending Channel.
Forex-usdjpy
USDJPYUSDJPY price is still in a downtrend. If the price cannot break through 150.97, it is expected that the price will drop. Consider selling the red zone.
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$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (February/2025)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
February/2025
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 3.7% in February 2025 from a 2-year high of 4.0% in the prior month, amid a sharp slowdown in prices of electricity (9.0% vs 18.0% in January )and gas (3.4% vs 6.8%) following the government's reinstatement of energy subsidies.
Also, food prices rose slightly slower after hitting a 15-month high in January (7.6% vs 7.8%).
Further, inflation eased for healthcare (1.7% vs. 1.8%), recreation (2.1% vs. 2.6%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs. 1.4%).
At the same time, education costs continued to fall (-1.1% vs. -1.1%).
In contrast, inflation remained steady for housing (at 0.8%) and clothing (at 2.8%), while accelerating for transport (2.4% vs. 2.0%) and furniture and household items (4.0% vs. 3.4%), and bouncing back for communications (0.1% vs. -0.3%).
The core inflation rate dropped to 3.0% from January's 19-month top of 3.2%, above forecasts of 2.9%.
Monthly, the CPI dropped 0.1%, the first fall since September, after a 0.5% gain in January.
USDJPY: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
USDJPY
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short USDJPY
Entry - 149.59
Sl - 150.38
Tp - 148.25
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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USDJPY: Bears Will Push Lower
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the USDJPY pair which is likely to be pushed down by the bears so we will sell!
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UJ Bears Break Andrew's Pitchfork, Time To Short??Based on the Aug. 5th Low (A), Aug. 15th High (B) & Sept. 16th Low (C) we are able to project an Up-trending Andrew's Pitchfork.
After price makes a Fibonacci Retracement to the Golden Ratio (61.8%) of the Pitchfork Range, price falls to the Previous High or Point of Interest finding support to then rise and stall out at the Linear Regression or True Trendline of the Pitchfork and is unable to sustain the Higher High to only fall again while this time breaking the Rising Support of the Pitckfork.
Price may continue to fall to the POI before finding support again @ the 148 - 149 range but we should expect price to retest the Break of Rising Support @ the 155 - 156 range.
-If support turns resistance and holds price, this will deliver great shorting opportunities to take down to the POI and potentially all the way to the Range Target of 139 - 142!
*If price ascends back into the Pitchfork range, price action is considered a False Breakout.
Fundamentally, so far Feb. has been a trying month for USD where we saw last Friday, Non-Farm Employment Change came in @ 143k ( 164k Decrease from last month @ 307k which was revised up from 256k) with only a .1% down tick in Unemployment to 4%.
This Week:
USD
Tues - Powell Speaks
Wed - Core CPI/CPI, Powell Testifies
Thus - Core PPI/PPI, Unemployment Claims
Fri - Core Retail Sales/Retails Sales
UJ Prepping Falling Wedge Breakout To Start 2025?FX:USDJPY starts 2025 in what appears to be a Falling Wedge, but following the 50% Fibonacci Retracement based from the Low @ 148.639 to start December 2024 to the High @ 158.874 last month, Price seems to may be ready to setup for a Bullish Break of this Pattern.
To see if FX:USDJPY has truly Broken Out of the Falling Wedge, here are some signals:
1) While price travels lower in the Falling Wedge, we can see Volume picks up the lower price goes
2) The Breaking Candle following the 2nd 50% Retracement touch generates a good amount of Bullish Volume compared to the similarly sized printed Bullish Candle following the 1st 50% Retracement touch (both candles marked in yellow to compare)
3) Following this Break, we see RSI Break above the 50 mark moving into Bullish territory.
** Buy Opportunities will come if Price successfully retest the Break of the Falling Resistance and finds Support.
-- Beware of a False Break if Price decides to fall back down Below the Falling Resistance too soon before a legitimate test.
$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate Highest in Near 2 YearsECONOMICS:JPIRYY 3.6%
(December/2024)
source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
- The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in November,
marking the highest reading since January 2023 as food prices rose the most in a year.
Meanwhile, the core inflation rate climbed to a 16-month peak of 3%, in line with estimates.
USDJPY Retest Completion and Bounce BackThe USDJPY pair is currently trading at a price of 156.000, with a target price set at 162. This suggests a potential gain of over 500 pips, indicating a significant upward movement. The market analysis highlights that the pair has recently completed its retesting phase at a critical support level. This retest confirms the strength of the support, as the price has now started to bounce back from this zone. The pattern identified is based on support and resistance, a common and reliable technical strategy in forex trading. A bounce from support often signals a bullish trend, making this an opportune time for buyers. Traders may view this as a favorable entry point, with the potential for strong gains. However, proper risk management and market monitoring are crucial. The setup aligns with technical indicators supporting the bounce scenario. The movement suggests the pair is regaining bullish momentum.
TradeCityPro | USD/JPY : Divergence and Trend Weakness👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro!
In this analysis, I’ll review the USD/JPY forex pair, focusing on the 4-hour timeframe.
⏳ 4-Hour Timeframe: Current Trend Insights
At present, the trend in the 4-hour timeframe is upward, with an observable ascending trendline. The SMA99 has also acted as a support level.
🔽 However, the strength of the trend appears to be diminishing. The bullish candles are progressively smaller, and corrections have become deeper.
✨ RSI Analysis and Momentum
A negative divergence is noticeable in the RSI, indicating a weakening trend. The 39.98 support level is crucial, and with the divergence and trend weakening, the likelihood of breaking this RSI level is high. If this happens, the market’s bullish momentum will fade.
📉 Short Position Strategy
If the trendline is broken and the 153.639 trigger level is breached, followed by price stabilization below this level, it will signal an entry opportunity for a short position. The specific trigger, whether based on Dow Theory, a pullback to 153.639, or another strategy, depends on your approach.
📊 The next key support is at 151.512. If you missed or avoided the 153.639 trigger due to risk concerns, breaking this support could provide a safer short entry point. Subsequent supports are located at 149.177 and 145.826.
📈 Long Position Strategy
Despite the weakening trend, the 156.544 trigger is still a valid entry point for long positions. The next resistance after this level will be at 157.702.
🔑 By keeping an eye on these levels and market momentum, you can effectively align your trading strategy with market conditions.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
USDJPY: Pullback Movement Continues 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Following my yesterday's trading idea, USDJPY nicely respected
a key horizontal support bounced from that.
Analyzing a 4H time frame, I see one more bullish confirmation today.
This time, the price formed a double bottom pattern and violated its neckline.
Growth will most likely continue, at least to 152.9
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XAU/USD : Bull or Bear ? NFP's coming! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Gold chart in the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as observed last night, gold dropped sharply from $2782 to $2731, creating a significant liquidity gap. As mentioned yesterday, the first key demand zone was between $2733-$2735, and once the price reached this critical zone, it was met with buying pressure, leading to a rebound of over 250 pips, taking gold up to $2757. Currently, gold is trading around $2752, with the NFP report ahead.
If the NFP data comes in lower than the forecast, it could push gold to higher levels. Conversely, if the data is higher than expected, we might see further declines in gold. There’s no certainty here, so I prefer to observe rather than make any trades on gold today.
Good luck, friends!
EUR/USD: Pullback Before the Big Drop?The EUR/USD exchange rate remains stable around 1.0790 during early Asian trading on Monday, yet it faces potential downside pressure due to rising expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Recent encouraging economic data from the United States has fueled these expectations, suggesting the Fed may adopt a more stringent policy in November, which could strengthen the dollar. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has broken out of its descending regression channel, stabilizing above the upper line. On the downside, support levels are seen at 1.0800 and 1.0750. Last Thursday, EUR/USD displayed some resilience, benefiting from improved market sentiment and a dip in U.S. Treasury yields, leading to a temporary softening of the dollar. However, the pair remains at a crossroads, awaiting fresh cues from the economic calendar, such as U.S. durable goods orders data, which is expected to show a 1% decline. A stronger-than-expected figure could boost the dollar, while a more significant drop might weaken it, though the effect on EUR/USD could be short-lived. The neutral stance in U.S. index futures partly reflects broader uncertainty, leaving open the possibility that shifts in risk sentiment could impact the dollar; a continuation of risk flows favoring safer assets might keep the USD under pressure. Good trading day!
USDJPYUSDJPY price is near the resistance zone 151.01-151.54. If the price cannot break through the 151.54 level, it is expected that the price will have a chance to go down in the short term. Consider selling the red zone.
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Traders could veer towards the yen with risk events loomingIt is no coincidence that VIX futures have been creeping higher in recent weeks despite Wall Street hitting record highs, as traders are presumably hedging downside risk as we approach the US election. And that means it may not take much to spook traders out of bullish bets with markets at frothy levels, and that could see the yen strengthen as a safety play. Matt Simpson takes a technical look at yen pairs of interest.
USDJPYUSDJPY is in a correction phase. The price is currently near the support zone of 142.88-142.18. If the price cannot break through the 141.81 level, it is likely to rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
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USDJPYUSDJPY If the price can stay above the support level at 139.87, it is expected that the price will have a chance to test the 143.70 and 144.83 levels. Consider buying in the red zone.
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
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USDJPY Technical Analysis 16/09/2024The USDJPY is giving bullish signals across different timeframes. Prices have dropped to the demand zone on the weekly chart.
At this point, the trend is no longer your friend because it has entered the "Trend Exhaustion" phase.
There is a broad RSI bullish divergence on the daily chart, supporting a potential rise.
On the 4-hour chart, a Stochastic bullish crossover has formed in the oversold zone.
Prices are likely to consolidate until the release of this week’s core retail sales report, but we are at a favorable level to begin gradual buying.