Trade idea - USDJPY Long1H
Corrective approach towards entry zone.
-27 Fibonacci completion aligning with entry zone.
= Buy limit.
0.5% risk.
Aiming to take full profit at Daily TP.
Forex-usdjpy
USDJPYUSDJPY price is near the important support zone 145.66. If the price cannot break through the 145.66 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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*Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management
MarketBreakdown | GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDCAD, SILVER
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #GBPUSD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD broke and closed above a resistance line of
a bullish flag pattern on a daily.
Because the pair is trading in a long-term bullish trend,
such a violation is a strong bullish signal and a clear sign of
strength of the buyers.
I think that the pair will continue growing.
2️⃣ #USDJPY weekly time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵
The market is very close to a recently broken
major rising trend line that turned into a resistance after a breakout.
I suggest looking for a pullback trade from that because
a bearish reaction will most likely follow after its test.
3️⃣ #NZDCAD daily time frame 🇳🇿🇨🇦
The price formed an ascending triangle pattern on a daily.
We see a breakout attempt of its neckline at the moment.
A daily candle close above the underlined blue area will be a strong bullish confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be expected then.
4️⃣ Silver #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙
Looks like Silver has completed a correctional movement
and returns to a global bullish trend.
A recent breakout of a key daily horizontal resistance confirms
a local dominance of the buyers.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
USDJPY Is Unfolding A Five-Wave Bearish ImpulseUSDJPY is in an impulsive decline from the highs, which is now even extended in the 4-hour chart, so it's probably wave 3 of a five-wave bearish impulse within higher degree wave (A).
It recovered a bit, but it looks like a three-wave corrective pullback in wave 4 only, touching base channel support line as a resistance, so be aware of a bearish continuation for wave 5 of (A) towards 140 – 138 area before we will see a bigger corrective recovery within wave (B).
USDJPYUSDJPY price is near the support zone 152.215-151.256. If the price cannot break through the 151.256 level, it is expected that the price will rebound. Consider buying the red zone.
>>GooD Luck 😊
❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
*Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management
USDJPY rebounded from Fib0.618% levelOn Friday (July 5), data from the US Department of Labor showed that US nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 jobs in June. The May data was revised sharply downward to show an increase of 218,000 jobs, compared to the previous value of 272,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, slightly above expectations of 4.0%. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed US jobs growth slowed slightly in June while the unemployment rate rose, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates capacity in September.
Data-wise it is not favorable for the USD and this creates some pressure on USD/JPY. But the general picture is that USD/JPY still tends to increase fundamentally because the interest rate difference between the Fed and BOJ is still very large.
On the daily chart, after OANDA:USDJPY correction since testing the edge on the price channel (a), the correction also received support from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension. Note to readers in the previous issue.
The 0.618% Fibonacci level acts as short-term support, while the EMA21 moving average and trend price channel (a) act as main supports and are also the main trend of USD/JPY.
In the short term, as long as USD/JPY remains above the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it will remain supported and the possibility of a downside correction will remain limited and the target level in the near term is aimed at the 0.786% Fibonacci level.
In case USD/JPY falls below 160.204 it has room to correct a bit more with EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.50% as targets. However, during the day the uptrend of USD/JPY will still be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 160,204 – 159,896
Resistance: 161,951 – 162,464
USD/JPY Technicals Point Higher, but Intervention Risk RemainsFrom a purely technical perspective, USD/JPY remains in a well-defined uptrend that started just after Christmas. Over the last few weeks, the pair has carved out a clear ascending triangle pattern with resistance at 158.00, suggesting that a break above could quickly expose the 30+ year highs near 160.00.
The only fly in the proverbial ointment is the BOJ, which may look to intervene to cap the pair on a move toward 160.00, as it did in late April and early May. Overall, the technical bias remains bullish, especially if we break 158.00, but traders will want to plan for the risk of potential intervention with smaller position sizes or tight stops.
-MW
USDJPY Might Have Found The TopThis year JPY hit new lows across the board in last few weeks even though BOJ decided to end its ultra-loose policy, by raising rates for 10bp in March. USDJPY broke higher, out of a triangle on a daily chart, so we know that this is most likely final leg with a higher degree wave III/C. In fact, there was a nice push up to 160 resistance not seen since 1990, which was the area of a current sharp reversal after Japan intervention.
That being said, be aware of a reversal down within a higher degree decline in minimum three waves, which can send the price at least back down to 137 - 127 area.
BULLISH TRI BREAK to Finish ABC Move for +2500 PIPS?! - UJHere I have USDJPY on the Weekly Chart!
Price has been meeting all the criteria since its LOWEST LOW recorded @ 75.565 in Oct. 2011 to have then started what looks to be a Correction Wave (ABC).
*This Low also seems to have been the completion of the 5th Wave of the Impulse Wave since UJ hit markets in Jan. 1971!!
On the chart you will see that we have continued to make HIGHER HIGHS & LOWS since our Low of 2011 and price after making its HIGHS, finding support at the Target Fib'd Retracement Levels!
This month of April has been a remarkable month for USD in the UJ pair:
-April has been nothing but overall BULLISH for UJ
-The past 2 weeks has not only given us a Break up out of the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) that has contained our Highs since Oct. '22 but has CONTINUED to reach even HIGHER giving us a BULLISH BREAK of the BULLISH TRIANGLE that price has formed with our Resistance Zone and Rising Support created by our LOWS in Jan. of 2023 & 2024!
Fundamentally what really pushes this move is the fact that the USD is now looking to keep rates still "Higher For Longer" with potentially only 2 Rate Cuts this year!! This can really feed favorability from investors towards the USD!
What does this all mean??
Firstly, we want to see if this CURRENT HIGH price is moving on is VALID!!
*I would like to see Price retrace to test these HIGHS in the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) to see if this level changes to SUPPORT!!
-If so, we will be looking to be BUYERS!!
Potential Range Target - ( 178.097 - 196.821 )
GBPJPY → The Japanese currency continues to weakenFX:GBPJPY is preparing to continue its growth amid the strong weakening of the Japanese national currency. Japan's central bank has been underperforming and is not about to do so.
The strong bullish trend in the currency pair may be continued. There are no prospects for a trend change. The key target at the moment is 195.844
On H1 it is worth paying attention to the level of 192.78, the price is gradually creeping up to this level and continues to test it, forming a pre-breakout consolidation, technically and fundamentally the market may soon update the maximum and head towards the above target.
Support levels: 192.0, 191.33
Resistance levels: 192.78, 193.54, 195.85
The key emphasis is on the nearest resistance at 192.78. I am waiting for a breakout of the level with further consolidation above the zone and growth to the targets
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY H4 28 Feb 2024USD/JPY, H4 28 February 2024
The Japanese Yen experienced a boost from its positive CPI data released yesterday, although the
initial momentum has tapered, leaving the currency pair in a consolidation phase at recent highs. The
upcoming release of U.S. GDP data later today is highly anticipated, poised to be a significant
economic indicator that could steer the direction of the currency pair. Moreover, market participants
are also keenly awaiting the U.S. PCE reading, scheduled for Thursday, adding another layer of
anticipation to the week's economic calendar.
The pair has formed a higher high, and an ascending triangle price pattern suggests a potential
bullish trend for the pair. The RSI is hovering near the 50 level while the MACD declines to near the
zero line, suggesting the bullish momentum has drastically eased.
Resistance level: 151.85, 154.90
Support level: 149.50, 147.60
Analysis on USDJPY [ 27 February 2024 ]Good Day fellow viewer. I am new to this youtube thing so I'll just be posting my analysis on certain pairs everyday. I am not an expert or a pro, I just enjoy analysing charts. Please enjoy and also enjoy the upcoming videos. I don't provide financial advice or sell anything. All the videos will just be my personal thoughts on which direction price will go. These are not signals but you can use my videos as an idea. You are all free to share your thoughts in the comment section. Please like the videos and subscribe. Thank you.
#forex #forextrading #usdjpy #trading #falconfx
USD-JPY | 15M | TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FX:USDJPY Hello traders I've identified the target for the harmonic pattern on the chart.
Like and comment if you find value in our analysis.
Feel free to post your ideas and questions at the comments section.
Good luck
USDJPY : Strategic analysis today!Hello everyone, today the USDJPY has been trading around the 150.500 mark during the early trading hours of the weekend. This pair found support at 150.42 and retested the 34 EMA line.
Trend Forecast: USDJPY is expected to continue its upward momentum and is forming a double top pattern as indicated on the chart. We will consider a sell strategy if USDJPY reaches that level.
What about you? What are your thoughts on the trend and your next trading strategy for USDJPY? Drop a comment to let me know!
USDJPY: Search for new support levelToday, the USD/JPY is trading around the 149.90 level, approaching a nearby support level with a predominant sideways movement, tilting the short-term outlook in favor of bearish momentum.
In the hourly timeframe, USD/JPY is exhibiting a Symmetrical Triangle pattern and has made a downward breakout. Should the current support be breached by a Double Top pattern, the bearish target is set at the 149.33 level, indicating a potential shift in the market's direction favoring sellers.
USOIL | Pay Attention at the Level $71-$72!Oil has found support in a demand zone, with a retest of an upward trendline and a 0.62% Fibonacci level, suggesting the possibility of a recovery towards new highs. On the chart, I've identified a yellow box where the price could consolidate, drawing liquidity below the swing low before resuming the upward movement. As for the fundamental analysis:
Qatar is actively working to mediate a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, facilitating hostage exchanges. Qatar's consistent success in negotiating between the conflicting parties is impacting the crude oil price, especially in a context of easing geopolitical tensions.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will face a long-term challenge in 2024 and 2025 as it tries to limit global production outside of OPEC. They impose strict production quotas on member countries, while non-OPEC producers, such as the United States, exceed OPEC pumping limits.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) recorded a significant increase in January, reaching a twelve-month high with 353,000 new jobs, well above the market's average forecasts of 180,000. With the US economy demonstrating remarkable resilience and the US labor market remaining at historical highs, the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to support the market continues to decrease.
Greetings and best wishes for a great weekend to everyone.
USDJPY|FIRST LONG THAN SHORT!We see the USDJPY in the one-hour time frame.
In the upward trend that was previously in the form of an upward channel, this channel has broken down and broken its support level.
In the continuation of its downward trend to enter sales positions.
Important areas of supply and demand are drawn on the chart.
In the returns to the supply areas that I have drawn, enter sell positions with confirmation.
My target for long positions is the supply area of 147.50.
For short positions, the demand area is 146.70.
🔥 EUR/USD - I expect it to fall ! (READ THE CAPTION)Based on the previous analysis of Euro/Dollar, we saw that we expected the price to fall, and after collecting the initial liquidity, the price went down again and was able to correct up to 1.081! If the price stabilizes below the level of 1.088, we can expect a further drop from this currency pair!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAUUSD | Fundamental & Technical AnalysisGold continues to fluctuate around $2,020 in the latter half of Friday, holding its position despite a 4.1% retreat in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, driven by December PCE inflation data. The gold price remains within a limited range, with the Fed closely monitoring inflation trends, and the PCE outcome will impact its restrictive stance on interest rates. Despite the economic resilience of the United States, gold prices could benefit from a slowdown in inflationary pressures. The probability of a rate cut in March has risen to 50%, but challenges persist for the Fed as the US economy remains robust, with a 3.3% GDP growth in Q4 2023. The Fed is expected to maintain unchanged interest rates, but investors will be attentive to signals regarding potential future cuts. The gold price exhibits an interesting pattern, with a primary bearish channel and a newly formed bullish one. The outlook suggests a potential initial movement following the bearish trend towards the $2000 zone, followed by sustained upward momentum in the new bullish trend. However, it is crucial to consider the option of a short scenario near $2000 and monitor developments following the Fed's announcements. Regards from Nicola, and have a great day, everyone.
Why Now is the Time to Go Long on USD/JPYThe trade idea capitalizes on the economic strengths of the US and the challenges faced by Japan, making a long position on USD/JPY appealing.
Amidst the contrasting economic landscapes of the US and Japan, a long position on USD/JPY appears favorable. The robust and resilient US economy, marked by strong retail sales, positive jobless claims, and optimistic consumer sentiment, positions the USD on solid ground. In contrast, Japan faces challenges with contracting Manufacturing PMI, easing CPI, and external factors like weakened Chinese data impacting its economic outlook.
US Economic Strength:
Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates reflects a strong and resilient economy.
December retail sales surged, indicating consumer confidence.
Positive jobless claims and robust performance in ISM Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales further strengthen the USD.
JPY Economic Challenges:
BOJ maintains expected monetary policy; Governor Ueda expresses openness to easing.
Stable Unemployment Rate, but Manufacturing PMI contracts while Services PMI shows resilience.
Japanese wage data falls below expectations, impacting BOJ's policy decisions.
Weakening Chinese data adds complexities to Japan's economic scenario.
Trade Strategy:
Long Position on USD/JPY: Consider initiating a long position on the USD/JPY currency pair.
Entry Point: Look for technical signals indicating potential upward momentum.
Stop-Loss: Place below recent significant support to manage downside risks.
Take-Profit: Target the next resistance level, considering the positive momentum in the US economy.
EUR/USD: It's Time to Evaluate a Short Trade!Good morning traders, EUR/USD has firmly maintained its downward trend and retreated to multi-week lows in the 1.0820 zone amidst increasing pre-ECB weakness. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair seems to have broken below the consolidative phase. That said, the first support level will be around 1.0821 before 1.0723. On the bullish side, attempts should look for a test of the 200-SMA at 1.0920, followed by the 100-SMA at 1.0930 and then 1.0998. The continuation of the strong dollar buying bias has kept risk appetite in check, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a new yearly high around 103.80, also aided by higher US yields, especially in the belly and the long end of the curve, and the current risk-off environment. In light of the upcoming ECB event, it is interesting to note that market participants have already priced in around 120 bps in rate cuts for the ongoing year, and there is a growing debate between market participants and ECB decision-makers regarding the timing of the central bank's decision to initiate a reduction in the region's policy rate. Despite inflation surpassing the target set by the European Central Bank, policymakers in Europe seem inclined to maintain a cautious approach, even though weak economic fundamentals in the region limit the potential for the European currency to strengthen. The situation looks heated for the dollar; the market today broke a double demand zone at H4, and now it could retrace to the 62 Fibonacci level in the supply zone at 1.0884 before seeking liquidity at a swing low around 1.0750. In case of a retracement, it will be crucial to evaluate an entry, possibly towards the end of the London session, perhaps following a bearish structural change to confirm our view. Greetings to everyone and happy trading.
XAUUSD is directed towards 2060 while the Recession is coming!The price of gold has reached almost $2,030, benefiting from the stabilization of the US dollar. However, a downward correction is not entirely convincing as traders reduce bets on a Fed rate cut in March. The precious metal has experienced a strong recovery after finding support near $2,000, backed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, the resistance of the 20-day EMA at $2,035 hinders the gold bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back, but the future remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including conflicts in Gaza and tensions between Houthi rebels and the United States, have driven gold higher. However, short-term prospects are not entirely bullish as bets for a Fed rate cut decline. Uncertainty about inflation in the United States persists, with conflicting data on price growth and a strong economy due to household spending. The Fed is expected to keep rates between 5.25% and 5.50% at the January 31 meeting, but traders will be attentive to any comments on managing expected rate cuts in 2024. Let's prepare for future gold rallies in anticipation of the turbulent storm that awaits the markets in the next 6 months. The market may not believe it yet, but the words of central bank speakers have been clear: no rate cut in the first quarter. Greetings and have a great weekend to everyone from Nicola.
