Forex-usdjpy
USD/JPY Technicals Point Higher, but Intervention Risk RemainsFrom a purely technical perspective, USD/JPY remains in a well-defined uptrend that started just after Christmas. Over the last few weeks, the pair has carved out a clear ascending triangle pattern with resistance at 158.00, suggesting that a break above could quickly expose the 30+ year highs near 160.00.
The only fly in the proverbial ointment is the BOJ, which may look to intervene to cap the pair on a move toward 160.00, as it did in late April and early May. Overall, the technical bias remains bullish, especially if we break 158.00, but traders will want to plan for the risk of potential intervention with smaller position sizes or tight stops.
-MW
USDJPY Might Have Found The TopThis year JPY hit new lows across the board in last few weeks even though BOJ decided to end its ultra-loose policy, by raising rates for 10bp in March. USDJPY broke higher, out of a triangle on a daily chart, so we know that this is most likely final leg with a higher degree wave III/C. In fact, there was a nice push up to 160 resistance not seen since 1990, which was the area of a current sharp reversal after Japan intervention.
That being said, be aware of a reversal down within a higher degree decline in minimum three waves, which can send the price at least back down to 137 - 127 area.
BULLISH TRI BREAK to Finish ABC Move for +2500 PIPS?! - UJHere I have USDJPY on the Weekly Chart!
Price has been meeting all the criteria since its LOWEST LOW recorded @ 75.565 in Oct. 2011 to have then started what looks to be a Correction Wave (ABC).
*This Low also seems to have been the completion of the 5th Wave of the Impulse Wave since UJ hit markets in Jan. 1971!!
On the chart you will see that we have continued to make HIGHER HIGHS & LOWS since our Low of 2011 and price after making its HIGHS, finding support at the Target Fib'd Retracement Levels!
This month of April has been a remarkable month for USD in the UJ pair:
-April has been nothing but overall BULLISH for UJ
-The past 2 weeks has not only given us a Break up out of the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) that has contained our Highs since Oct. '22 but has CONTINUED to reach even HIGHER giving us a BULLISH BREAK of the BULLISH TRIANGLE that price has formed with our Resistance Zone and Rising Support created by our LOWS in Jan. of 2023 & 2024!
Fundamentally what really pushes this move is the fact that the USD is now looking to keep rates still "Higher For Longer" with potentially only 2 Rate Cuts this year!! This can really feed favorability from investors towards the USD!
What does this all mean??
Firstly, we want to see if this CURRENT HIGH price is moving on is VALID!!
*I would like to see Price retrace to test these HIGHS in the Resistance Zone of ( 151.944 - 149.710) to see if this level changes to SUPPORT!!
-If so, we will be looking to be BUYERS!!
Potential Range Target - ( 178.097 - 196.821 )
GBPJPY → The Japanese currency continues to weakenFX:GBPJPY is preparing to continue its growth amid the strong weakening of the Japanese national currency. Japan's central bank has been underperforming and is not about to do so.
The strong bullish trend in the currency pair may be continued. There are no prospects for a trend change. The key target at the moment is 195.844
On H1 it is worth paying attention to the level of 192.78, the price is gradually creeping up to this level and continues to test it, forming a pre-breakout consolidation, technically and fundamentally the market may soon update the maximum and head towards the above target.
Support levels: 192.0, 191.33
Resistance levels: 192.78, 193.54, 195.85
The key emphasis is on the nearest resistance at 192.78. I am waiting for a breakout of the level with further consolidation above the zone and growth to the targets
Regards R. Linda!
USDJPY H4 28 Feb 2024USD/JPY, H4 28 February 2024
The Japanese Yen experienced a boost from its positive CPI data released yesterday, although the
initial momentum has tapered, leaving the currency pair in a consolidation phase at recent highs. The
upcoming release of U.S. GDP data later today is highly anticipated, poised to be a significant
economic indicator that could steer the direction of the currency pair. Moreover, market participants
are also keenly awaiting the U.S. PCE reading, scheduled for Thursday, adding another layer of
anticipation to the week's economic calendar.
The pair has formed a higher high, and an ascending triangle price pattern suggests a potential
bullish trend for the pair. The RSI is hovering near the 50 level while the MACD declines to near the
zero line, suggesting the bullish momentum has drastically eased.
Resistance level: 151.85, 154.90
Support level: 149.50, 147.60
Analysis on USDJPY [ 27 February 2024 ]Good Day fellow viewer. I am new to this youtube thing so I'll just be posting my analysis on certain pairs everyday. I am not an expert or a pro, I just enjoy analysing charts. Please enjoy and also enjoy the upcoming videos. I don't provide financial advice or sell anything. All the videos will just be my personal thoughts on which direction price will go. These are not signals but you can use my videos as an idea. You are all free to share your thoughts in the comment section. Please like the videos and subscribe. Thank you.
#forex #forextrading #usdjpy #trading #falconfx
USD-JPY | 15M | TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FX:USDJPY Hello traders I've identified the target for the harmonic pattern on the chart.
Like and comment if you find value in our analysis.
Feel free to post your ideas and questions at the comments section.
Good luck
USDJPY : Strategic analysis today!Hello everyone, today the USDJPY has been trading around the 150.500 mark during the early trading hours of the weekend. This pair found support at 150.42 and retested the 34 EMA line.
Trend Forecast: USDJPY is expected to continue its upward momentum and is forming a double top pattern as indicated on the chart. We will consider a sell strategy if USDJPY reaches that level.
What about you? What are your thoughts on the trend and your next trading strategy for USDJPY? Drop a comment to let me know!
USDJPY: Search for new support levelToday, the USD/JPY is trading around the 149.90 level, approaching a nearby support level with a predominant sideways movement, tilting the short-term outlook in favor of bearish momentum.
In the hourly timeframe, USD/JPY is exhibiting a Symmetrical Triangle pattern and has made a downward breakout. Should the current support be breached by a Double Top pattern, the bearish target is set at the 149.33 level, indicating a potential shift in the market's direction favoring sellers.
USOIL | Pay Attention at the Level $71-$72!Oil has found support in a demand zone, with a retest of an upward trendline and a 0.62% Fibonacci level, suggesting the possibility of a recovery towards new highs. On the chart, I've identified a yellow box where the price could consolidate, drawing liquidity below the swing low before resuming the upward movement. As for the fundamental analysis:
Qatar is actively working to mediate a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, facilitating hostage exchanges. Qatar's consistent success in negotiating between the conflicting parties is impacting the crude oil price, especially in a context of easing geopolitical tensions.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will face a long-term challenge in 2024 and 2025 as it tries to limit global production outside of OPEC. They impose strict production quotas on member countries, while non-OPEC producers, such as the United States, exceed OPEC pumping limits.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) recorded a significant increase in January, reaching a twelve-month high with 353,000 new jobs, well above the market's average forecasts of 180,000. With the US economy demonstrating remarkable resilience and the US labor market remaining at historical highs, the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to support the market continues to decrease.
Greetings and best wishes for a great weekend to everyone.
USDJPY|FIRST LONG THAN SHORT!We see the USDJPY in the one-hour time frame.
In the upward trend that was previously in the form of an upward channel, this channel has broken down and broken its support level.
In the continuation of its downward trend to enter sales positions.
Important areas of supply and demand are drawn on the chart.
In the returns to the supply areas that I have drawn, enter sell positions with confirmation.
My target for long positions is the supply area of 147.50.
For short positions, the demand area is 146.70.
🔥 EUR/USD - I expect it to fall ! (READ THE CAPTION)Based on the previous analysis of Euro/Dollar, we saw that we expected the price to fall, and after collecting the initial liquidity, the price went down again and was able to correct up to 1.081! If the price stabilizes below the level of 1.088, we can expect a further drop from this currency pair!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
XAUUSD | Fundamental & Technical AnalysisGold continues to fluctuate around $2,020 in the latter half of Friday, holding its position despite a 4.1% retreat in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, driven by December PCE inflation data. The gold price remains within a limited range, with the Fed closely monitoring inflation trends, and the PCE outcome will impact its restrictive stance on interest rates. Despite the economic resilience of the United States, gold prices could benefit from a slowdown in inflationary pressures. The probability of a rate cut in March has risen to 50%, but challenges persist for the Fed as the US economy remains robust, with a 3.3% GDP growth in Q4 2023. The Fed is expected to maintain unchanged interest rates, but investors will be attentive to signals regarding potential future cuts. The gold price exhibits an interesting pattern, with a primary bearish channel and a newly formed bullish one. The outlook suggests a potential initial movement following the bearish trend towards the $2000 zone, followed by sustained upward momentum in the new bullish trend. However, it is crucial to consider the option of a short scenario near $2000 and monitor developments following the Fed's announcements. Regards from Nicola, and have a great day, everyone.
Why Now is the Time to Go Long on USD/JPYThe trade idea capitalizes on the economic strengths of the US and the challenges faced by Japan, making a long position on USD/JPY appealing.
Amidst the contrasting economic landscapes of the US and Japan, a long position on USD/JPY appears favorable. The robust and resilient US economy, marked by strong retail sales, positive jobless claims, and optimistic consumer sentiment, positions the USD on solid ground. In contrast, Japan faces challenges with contracting Manufacturing PMI, easing CPI, and external factors like weakened Chinese data impacting its economic outlook.
US Economic Strength:
Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates reflects a strong and resilient economy.
December retail sales surged, indicating consumer confidence.
Positive jobless claims and robust performance in ISM Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales further strengthen the USD.
JPY Economic Challenges:
BOJ maintains expected monetary policy; Governor Ueda expresses openness to easing.
Stable Unemployment Rate, but Manufacturing PMI contracts while Services PMI shows resilience.
Japanese wage data falls below expectations, impacting BOJ's policy decisions.
Weakening Chinese data adds complexities to Japan's economic scenario.
Trade Strategy:
Long Position on USD/JPY: Consider initiating a long position on the USD/JPY currency pair.
Entry Point: Look for technical signals indicating potential upward momentum.
Stop-Loss: Place below recent significant support to manage downside risks.
Take-Profit: Target the next resistance level, considering the positive momentum in the US economy.
EUR/USD: It's Time to Evaluate a Short Trade!Good morning traders, EUR/USD has firmly maintained its downward trend and retreated to multi-week lows in the 1.0820 zone amidst increasing pre-ECB weakness. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair seems to have broken below the consolidative phase. That said, the first support level will be around 1.0821 before 1.0723. On the bullish side, attempts should look for a test of the 200-SMA at 1.0920, followed by the 100-SMA at 1.0930 and then 1.0998. The continuation of the strong dollar buying bias has kept risk appetite in check, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a new yearly high around 103.80, also aided by higher US yields, especially in the belly and the long end of the curve, and the current risk-off environment. In light of the upcoming ECB event, it is interesting to note that market participants have already priced in around 120 bps in rate cuts for the ongoing year, and there is a growing debate between market participants and ECB decision-makers regarding the timing of the central bank's decision to initiate a reduction in the region's policy rate. Despite inflation surpassing the target set by the European Central Bank, policymakers in Europe seem inclined to maintain a cautious approach, even though weak economic fundamentals in the region limit the potential for the European currency to strengthen. The situation looks heated for the dollar; the market today broke a double demand zone at H4, and now it could retrace to the 62 Fibonacci level in the supply zone at 1.0884 before seeking liquidity at a swing low around 1.0750. In case of a retracement, it will be crucial to evaluate an entry, possibly towards the end of the London session, perhaps following a bearish structural change to confirm our view. Greetings to everyone and happy trading.
XAUUSD is directed towards 2060 while the Recession is coming!The price of gold has reached almost $2,030, benefiting from the stabilization of the US dollar. However, a downward correction is not entirely convincing as traders reduce bets on a Fed rate cut in March. The precious metal has experienced a strong recovery after finding support near $2,000, backed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, the resistance of the 20-day EMA at $2,035 hinders the gold bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back, but the future remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including conflicts in Gaza and tensions between Houthi rebels and the United States, have driven gold higher. However, short-term prospects are not entirely bullish as bets for a Fed rate cut decline. Uncertainty about inflation in the United States persists, with conflicting data on price growth and a strong economy due to household spending. The Fed is expected to keep rates between 5.25% and 5.50% at the January 31 meeting, but traders will be attentive to any comments on managing expected rate cuts in 2024. Let's prepare for future gold rallies in anticipation of the turbulent storm that awaits the markets in the next 6 months. The market may not believe it yet, but the words of central bank speakers have been clear: no rate cut in the first quarter. Greetings and have a great weekend to everyone from Nicola.
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-18/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The pound remains the focus of sales. Despite a good attempt at recovery yesterday after the publication of economic data, the pound does not have technical and fundamental factors for growth. Therefore, most likely, the end of this week will also take place within the framework of the strengthening of the US dollar.
For this pair, active scenario №2 , which we published earlier. Since we are seeing a pretty good pullback upward, there is an opportunity for a re-entry or a full new entry for those who missed this entry point. The sell-target is located at the level of 1.25000.
Thank you for like and share your views!
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-15/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: For the British pound , we continue to adhere to scenario №2 . The first, as we remember, has already been worked out, but since the fall continues to be relevant in the medium term, scenario №2 is also relevant. Just like other major currency pairs, the pound has accumulated buyers within the current balance, which is a resource for going down. Technically, everything about us is also about sales.
Special focus to the level of 1.27000 , where buyers’ stop losses are located. Actually, in this area the most active phase of the expected downward impulse is expected to begin.
We have downside targets at the levels 1.26000 and 1.25000.
Thank you for like and share your views!
USDJPY LONG [SWING TRADE]the market structure of usdjpy on the 4HR AND daily HAS SHIFTED structure to a bullish market and we look to buy at the retracement
USDJPY: Increase or decrease further?Hello everyone, what do you think about USDJPY?
The USD/JPY pair held steady below the 146.00 threshold during early Tuesday's Asian trading session. Overall, the pair's rally was supported by a stronger US Dollar on Monday, supported by sour market sentiment and a weaker Japanese Yen. The pair regained most of the ground lost on Friday and hit an intraday high near 146.00.
Accordingly, this pair is still in the corrective wave from the previously completed wave 1 (Part highlighted in red). If the increase continues, it is expected that the decline will grow to 147,400, which is the 0.618 fibonacci level.
And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease in the near future?
Japan Earthquake Shakes the Yen, USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair experienced a recent surge, surpassing the 145.00 level, primarily driven by contrasting policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Notably, the yen weakened following BoJ Governor comments hinting at a prolonged delay in rate hikes, linked to uncertainties after the recent earthquake in Japan. This delay suggests that rate increases might be postponed until at least March or April, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen.
The week was heavy weighting on the Yen and it was the worst-performing G10 currency for the past trading week.
Meanwhile, outside Japan, bond yields, particularly the 10-year US Treasury yield, have seen a modest rebound from the lows seen at the end of the previous year. Expectations for significant rate cuts by major central banks in 2024 have been tempered, with market participants adjusting these projections based on recent economic data, which raised doubts about immediate rate cuts in Q1.
The latest release of the US employment data, including the NFP report, showed stronger-than-expected numbers. The NFP report indicated a rise in non-farm payrolls to 216K, surpassing the consensus forecast of 170K, while the unemployment rate also decreased. This robust employment data suggests a healthier labor market, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's perception of labor demand and may influence their decisions regarding rate adjustments.
USDJPY : Strong increase or decrease?Hello dear friends ! What do you think about the trend of USDJPY?
Currently, the pair is still holding on well to a recovery streak around 145.40 after it last plummeted to nearly 140.00.
However, in terms of trends, this currency pair still faces many difficulties as the market is still expecting a reduction in interest rates this year.
In fact, from the analysis chart, after the price decline, the correction is ongoing but has reached the retracement zone near the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
This will be a sensitive time for the pair as it also coincides with the 146.00 resistance level.
In case the price breaks beyond the 0.5 level, the upside prospect will continue, but if the price cannot surpass that level, the bearish scenario as mentioned above will take place with the possible reduction target returning to 144.00.
And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease?
