⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-15/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: For the British pound , we continue to adhere to scenario №2 . The first, as we remember, has already been worked out, but since the fall continues to be relevant in the medium term, scenario №2 is also relevant. Just like other major currency pairs, the pound has accumulated buyers within the current balance, which is a resource for going down. Technically, everything about us is also about sales.
Special focus to the level of 1.27000 , where buyers’ stop losses are located. Actually, in this area the most active phase of the expected downward impulse is expected to begin.
We have downside targets at the levels 1.26000 and 1.25000.
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Forex-usdjpy
USDJPY: Increase or decrease further?Hello everyone, what do you think about USDJPY?
The USD/JPY pair held steady below the 146.00 threshold during early Tuesday's Asian trading session. Overall, the pair's rally was supported by a stronger US Dollar on Monday, supported by sour market sentiment and a weaker Japanese Yen. The pair regained most of the ground lost on Friday and hit an intraday high near 146.00.
Accordingly, this pair is still in the corrective wave from the previously completed wave 1 (Part highlighted in red). If the increase continues, it is expected that the decline will grow to 147,400, which is the 0.618 fibonacci level.
And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease in the near future?
Japan Earthquake Shakes the Yen, USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair experienced a recent surge, surpassing the 145.00 level, primarily driven by contrasting policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Notably, the yen weakened following BoJ Governor comments hinting at a prolonged delay in rate hikes, linked to uncertainties after the recent earthquake in Japan. This delay suggests that rate increases might be postponed until at least March or April, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen.
The week was heavy weighting on the Yen and it was the worst-performing G10 currency for the past trading week.
Meanwhile, outside Japan, bond yields, particularly the 10-year US Treasury yield, have seen a modest rebound from the lows seen at the end of the previous year. Expectations for significant rate cuts by major central banks in 2024 have been tempered, with market participants adjusting these projections based on recent economic data, which raised doubts about immediate rate cuts in Q1.
The latest release of the US employment data, including the NFP report, showed stronger-than-expected numbers. The NFP report indicated a rise in non-farm payrolls to 216K, surpassing the consensus forecast of 170K, while the unemployment rate also decreased. This robust employment data suggests a healthier labor market, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's perception of labor demand and may influence their decisions regarding rate adjustments.
USDJPY : Strong increase or decrease?Hello dear friends ! What do you think about the trend of USDJPY?
Currently, the pair is still holding on well to a recovery streak around 145.40 after it last plummeted to nearly 140.00.
However, in terms of trends, this currency pair still faces many difficulties as the market is still expecting a reduction in interest rates this year.
In fact, from the analysis chart, after the price decline, the correction is ongoing but has reached the retracement zone near the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
This will be a sensitive time for the pair as it also coincides with the 146.00 resistance level.
In case the price breaks beyond the 0.5 level, the upside prospect will continue, but if the price cannot surpass that level, the bearish scenario as mentioned above will take place with the possible reduction target returning to 144.00.
And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease?
USDJPY: decrease or increase in the new price week?Karina hello everyone!
The USD/JPY pair gained traction above the 145.00 mark during the early Asian session on Monday. The pair recovered despite the decline in the US Dollar. The market will likely have a quiet session amid the US bank holiday.
However, when considering technical trends and prospects:
USDJPY just broke the bullish Trendline and is in a corrective wave with betting resistance stopping the pair at 145,500.
The bears gained more advantage when the retracement exceeded the 0.5 Fibo level, showing that buying pressure has decreased a lot. If the 144,800 support level is broken, the bears will have more advantages in pushing the pair back to the 143,500 threshold.
And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease in price?
USDJPY : Disadvantages during recoveryHello wonderful friends. Today USDJPY encountered some disadvantages during the recovery process.
Accordingly, the upward trend of this currency pair is greatly affected by the news announced yesterday. The price of USDJPY is currently fluctuating around 144,800 USD and has broken out of the support level of 145,300.
It is expected that the decrease will continue today and in the coming days. We prioritize SELL with the main profit target set at 144,400 and beyond if favorable, it will be 143,700.
Wishing you effective trading!
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: As expected, due to the high correlation between the British pound and the Euro , the situation for these currency pairs before US inflation is absolutely the same. For this pair, scenario №1 is considered worked out. But scenario №2 does not lose its relevance.
Therefore, scenario №2 is very relevant before the publication of data from the United States . We set the downside target at 1.26000. We place the stop loss at 1.28500 , closer to 1.29000. If something happens, within the specified stop loss ranges, you can consider adding a position or re-entering the sell.
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USDJPY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Is it going to be the same story again for the USDJPY?
In 2022, the USDJPY climbed to reach just below 152 before turning down to the 128 support level. The similar price movement played out in 2023 as the USDJPY rose from the 128 support level to retest the 152 resistance level.
The USDJPY has reversed down to the 140 price area (50% Fibonacci retracement level), primarily due to the weakness of the DXY as markets began to price in rate cut scenarios from the US Federal Reserve. This move lower was also due to rumors that the BoJ could end its ultra-loose monetary policy at the December 2023 meeting.
However, the BoJ has so far maintained its current policy stance as it continues the fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target level.
The longer the BoJ persists with its negative rates regime in 2024, this could continue to bring weakness to the Yen. Combined with some retracement on the DXY, the USDJPY could retest the 143-144 price area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) in the short term.
Look for the BoJ to signal a plan for policy normalization in 2024, to lead to further downside.
However, it'll be crucial for the USDJPY to break below the 138-round number support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before we can see a significant downside to the 128-support level again.
USDJPY Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 147.46
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 148.67
My Stop Loss - 146.81
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Elliot Correction Wave?! - UJHere I have USD/JPY on the 1 Hr Chart!
Our failed Lower Low @ 146.841 (Point B) Kicked off my Bullish Bias on UJ today! I believe this is coming to us in the form of a Elliot Correction Wave! When UJ was in this area back in Mid Sep', it was used as Support!
Price has now broke the Confirmation @ 147.905 and is still climbing!
Fundamentally this morning the major news for USD was enough to support the Bullish Rush! All currencies have OPEC today!
USD has Chicago PMI and Home Sales left today!
🔵 EURUSD - Another Fall or Going to Higher targets ? By checking the Euro/Dollar chart, as we expected, the price penetrated above the level of 1.09470 for liquidity collection and manipulation, and then experienced a heavy fall to the support area of 1.08585! The efficiency was about +110 pips! After this drop, the price entered the support level that we had determined and we saw how beautifully it reacted to this level and was able to grow again up to 1.09470! Now the price has entered a supply zone in the range of 1.09340 to 1.09650 and if it cannot reach above 1.09650 and stabilize, we will probably see a price correction in this zone !
Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments.
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Strifor || EURUSD-21/11/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The euro worked out exactly our previous long scenario. At the moment, the growth is most likely exhausted in the short term and a pullback is expected. The rollback is expected to be towards the nearest support at 1.07750. This is the main scenario.
The second scenario assumes that buyers will be able to gain a foothold at current levels, which is unlikely, of course. However, we cannot completely rule out this scenario.
Both variants are indicated on the chart.
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Strifor || EURUSD-16/11/2023Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: The euro is increasingly strengthening the foundation of the upward trend, which we can already talk about. The bullish potential remains despite the already impressive growth. Here, in the very near future, the price will most likely retest the resistance area around the level of 1.09000.
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USDJPY declines due to the weakening of the USD!Hello dear friends!
Today, once again the USDJPY pair has moved away from the 150.000 area. As a result, USD/JPY - the amount of Yen that can be purchased with one Dollar - has decreased after the release of the lackluster Non-Farm Payrolls, leading to a series of Dollar sell-offs.
From a short-term perspective on the 4-hour chart, this decline has brought the currency pair closer to a potential trend reversal. The two important support levels at 150.500 and 150.00 have been broken. Breaking below the low of 148.80 on October 30th will provide much stronger evidence that the bears have finally turned the tables against the bulls, as this is a lower high of the short-term uptrend.
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: small growth💬 Description: The extreme trading idea for GOLD exactly reached its target at the level of 1948.160 . On a larger scale, a continuation of the decline is considered. Before this, however, there will most likely be a slight recovery with the goal of growth towards the upper limit of the current range at the level of 1997 . The transaction is exclusively short-term in nature, so enter strictly with a stop-loss, as always. For the first trade in a small long position, we set the target at the level of 1972.454 , and for a short trade, the target for the fall will be at the level of 1921 .
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Strifor || EURUSD-09/11/2023Preferred direction: Neutral
Comment: The euro situation requires some adjustments. At the moment, most likely the currency pair will grow a little more. The growth will be with the aim of updating yesterday's high. After which the medium-term downward decline is likely to continue again.
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Dollar towers over Yen.Forex and trading in general is all about recurrent movements. Here's an example: two of the pullbacks looks similar to each other, the main difference is just the time it used to develop. Price already has broken above pullback, so the chance is higher for it to move up to the same height as last. See if it makes a for example a flag pattern as drawn, then maybe it follows up.
Strifor || XAUUSD-06/11/2023Preferred direction: SELL
Comment: The trading idea for gold, proposed on Friday before the NFP, remains relevant. Here at the level of 1981.683 we expect a fall. A significant part of what was expected before the fall has already been realized, and at the beginning of this week, most likely the potential for the fall will be realized.
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USD/JPY recovers above 150.00Hello dear friends, Today once again USDJPY has reached the mark of 150.000, at the time of writing the article, the price is still steadily increasing to 150.42 and has risen by 0.93% in a day.
Perhaps this is what we are most concerned about right now, whether USDJPY can maintain this level or will it turn around and decrease like before. In monetary policy decisions, the BoJ kept interest rates unchanged at a negative 0.1% as expected by market participants, and this is a favorable condition for the USDJPY pair.
The Japanese economy is trying to maintain inflation above 2% consistently, but the main pressure on prices comes from external factors. The BoJ is concerned with maintaining inflation at the target of 2% comfortably through higher wage growth, and continuing with an expansionary policy stance is crucial.
USDJPY: Conquer the peak 150,000 !Hello dear friends, Let's review the USUJPY transactions from last week and discuss new strategies for the future!
As we have long anticipated, UJ has reached the target of 150.00 at the end of last week, reaching a yearly high. However, as the trading week concluded, the price slightly declined and is currently resting at the level of 149.59.
Nevertheless, we shouldn't be overly concerned about this price decline as it could be a corrective trend after breaking through a strong psychological resistance level. The price is likely to recover soon.
Another confirmation for this belief is that after the Bollinger bands contracted within the previous week, they are now expanding and the UJ price has reached the lower limit of the Bollinger bands. Therefore, it is highly probable that after testing the support level at 149.300, this pair will have even stronger upward momentum.
Do you agree with this analysis? Please leave your thoughts in the comments section below. Thank you very much!
USD/JPY trades with mild positive bias blow 150.00Hello dear friends, It's great to see you again in this new week's conversation!
Today, the USD/JPY pair attracted some buying activity on the first day of the new week and seems to have halted its retreat from the 150.75-150.80 area, the highest level since October 2022, touched last week. However, Karina still holds a bullish view and the pair is currently trading around the 149.70-149.75 region, up slightly by less than 0.10% on the day as traders await important central bank meetings before placing new bets.
In this regard, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to announce its decision on Tuesday amid increasing speculation about potential changes in yield curve control (YCC) policies. However, the Bank of Japan is unlikely to escape from its negative interest rate policy. This marks a significant divergence from other major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, along with a positive risk tone, which is seen as weakening the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and turning out to be a key driver for the USD/JPY pair.