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XAUUSD | Fundamental & Technical AnalysisGold continues to fluctuate around $2,020 in the latter half of Friday, holding its position despite a 4.1% retreat in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield, driven by December PCE inflation data. The gold price remains within a limited range, with the Fed closely monitoring inflation trends, and the PCE outcome will impact its restrictive stance on interest rates. Despite the economic resilience of the United States, gold prices could benefit from a slowdown in inflationary pressures. The probability of a rate cut in March has risen to 50%, but challenges persist for the Fed as the US economy remains robust, with a 3.3% GDP growth in Q4 2023. The Fed is expected to maintain unchanged interest rates, but investors will be attentive to signals regarding potential future cuts. The gold price exhibits an interesting pattern, with a primary bearish channel and a newly formed bullish one. The outlook suggests a potential initial movement following the bearish trend towards the $2000 zone, followed by sustained upward momentum in the new bullish trend. However, it is crucial to consider the option of a short scenario near $2000 and monitor developments following the Fed's announcements. Regards from Nicola, and have a great day, everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Why Now is the Time to Go Long on USD/JPYThe trade idea capitalizes on the economic strengths of the US and the challenges faced by Japan, making a long position on USD/JPY appealing. Amidst the contrasting economic landscapes of the US and Japan, a long position on USD/JPY appears favorable. The robust and resilient US economy, marked by strong retail sales, positive jobless claims, and optimistic consumer sentiment, positions the USD on solid ground. In contrast, Japan faces challenges with contracting Manufacturing PMI, easing CPI, and external factors like weakened Chinese data impacting its economic outlook. US Economic Strength: Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates reflects a strong and resilient economy. December retail sales surged, indicating consumer confidence. Positive jobless claims and robust performance in ISM Manufacturing PMI and Retail Sales further strengthen the USD. JPY Economic Challenges: BOJ maintains expected monetary policy; Governor Ueda expresses openness to easing. Stable Unemployment Rate, but Manufacturing PMI contracts while Services PMI shows resilience. Japanese wage data falls below expectations, impacting BOJ's policy decisions. Weakening Chinese data adds complexities to Japan's economic scenario. Trade Strategy: Long Position on USD/JPY: Consider initiating a long position on the USD/JPY currency pair. Entry Point: Look for technical signals indicating potential upward momentum. Stop-Loss: Place below recent significant support to manage downside risks. Take-Profit: Target the next resistance level, considering the positive momentum in the US economy.
Long
by Elite_Forex
2
EUR/USD: It's Time to Evaluate a Short Trade!Good morning traders, EUR/USD has firmly maintained its downward trend and retreated to multi-week lows in the 1.0820 zone amidst increasing pre-ECB weakness. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair seems to have broken below the consolidative phase. That said, the first support level will be around 1.0821 before 1.0723. On the bullish side, attempts should look for a test of the 200-SMA at 1.0920, followed by the 100-SMA at 1.0930 and then 1.0998. The continuation of the strong dollar buying bias has kept risk appetite in check, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a new yearly high around 103.80, also aided by higher US yields, especially in the belly and the long end of the curve, and the current risk-off environment. In light of the upcoming ECB event, it is interesting to note that market participants have already priced in around 120 bps in rate cuts for the ongoing year, and there is a growing debate between market participants and ECB decision-makers regarding the timing of the central bank's decision to initiate a reduction in the region's policy rate. Despite inflation surpassing the target set by the European Central Bank, policymakers in Europe seem inclined to maintain a cautious approach, even though weak economic fundamentals in the region limit the potential for the European currency to strengthen. The situation looks heated for the dollar; the market today broke a double demand zone at H4, and now it could retrace to the 62 Fibonacci level in the supply zone at 1.0884 before seeking liquidity at a swing low around 1.0750. In case of a retracement, it will be crucial to evaluate an entry, possibly towards the end of the London session, perhaps following a bearish structural change to confirm our view. Greetings to everyone and happy trading.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
XAUUSD is directed towards 2060 while the Recession is coming!The price of gold has reached almost $2,030, benefiting from the stabilization of the US dollar. However, a downward correction is not entirely convincing as traders reduce bets on a Fed rate cut in March. The precious metal has experienced a strong recovery after finding support near $2,000, backed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, the resistance of the 20-day EMA at $2,035 hinders the gold bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back, but the future remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including conflicts in Gaza and tensions between Houthi rebels and the United States, have driven gold higher. However, short-term prospects are not entirely bullish as bets for a Fed rate cut decline. Uncertainty about inflation in the United States persists, with conflicting data on price growth and a strong economy due to household spending. The Fed is expected to keep rates between 5.25% and 5.50% at the January 31 meeting, but traders will be attentive to any comments on managing expected rate cuts in 2024. Let's prepare for future gold rallies in anticipation of the turbulent storm that awaits the markets in the next 6 months. The market may not believe it yet, but the words of central bank speakers have been clear: no rate cut in the first quarter. Greetings and have a great weekend to everyone from Nicola.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-18/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The pound remains the focus of sales. Despite a good attempt at recovery yesterday after the publication of economic data, the pound does not have technical and fundamental factors for growth. Therefore, most likely, the end of this week will also take place within the framework of the strengthening of the US dollar. For this pair, active scenario №2 , which we published earlier. Since we are seeing a pretty good pullback upward, there is an opportunity for a re-entry or a full new entry for those who missed this entry point. The sell-target is located at the level of 1.25000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-15/01/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: For the British pound , we continue to adhere to scenario №2 . The first, as we remember, has already been worked out, but since the fall continues to be relevant in the medium term, scenario №2 is also relevant. Just like other major currency pairs, the pound has accumulated buyers within the current balance, which is a resource for going down. Technically, everything about us is also about sales. Special focus to the level of 1.27000 , where buyers’ stop losses are located. Actually, in this area the most active phase of the expected downward impulse is expected to begin. We have downside targets at the levels 1.26000 and 1.25000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
USDJPY: Increase or decrease further?Hello everyone, what do you think about USDJPY? The USD/JPY pair held steady below the 146.00 threshold during early Tuesday's Asian trading session. Overall, the pair's rally was supported by a stronger US Dollar on Monday, supported by sour market sentiment and a weaker Japanese Yen. The pair regained most of the ground lost on Friday and hit an intraday high near 146.00. Accordingly, this pair is still in the corrective wave from the previously completed wave 1 (Part highlighted in red). If the increase continues, it is expected that the decline will grow to 147,400, which is the 0.618 fibonacci level. And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease in the near future?
by Karina_Bella
1
Japan Earthquake Shakes the Yen, USD/JPYThe USD/JPY pair experienced a recent surge, surpassing the 145.00 level, primarily driven by contrasting policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). Notably, the yen weakened following BoJ Governor comments hinting at a prolonged delay in rate hikes, linked to uncertainties after the recent earthquake in Japan. This delay suggests that rate increases might be postponed until at least March or April, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen. The week was heavy weighting on the Yen and it was the worst-performing G10 currency for the past trading week. Meanwhile, outside Japan, bond yields, particularly the 10-year US Treasury yield, have seen a modest rebound from the lows seen at the end of the previous year. Expectations for significant rate cuts by major central banks in 2024 have been tempered, with market participants adjusting these projections based on recent economic data, which raised doubts about immediate rate cuts in Q1. The latest release of the US employment data, including the NFP report, showed stronger-than-expected numbers. The NFP report indicated a rise in non-farm payrolls to 216K, surpassing the consensus forecast of 170K, while the unemployment rate also decreased. This robust employment data suggests a healthier labor market, potentially altering the Federal Reserve's perception of labor demand and may influence their decisions regarding rate adjustments.
Long
by Elite_Forex
USDJPY : Strong increase or decrease?Hello dear friends ! What do you think about the trend of USDJPY? Currently, the pair is still holding on well to a recovery streak around 145.40 after it last plummeted to nearly 140.00. However, in terms of trends, this currency pair still faces many difficulties as the market is still expecting a reduction in interest rates this year. In fact, from the analysis chart, after the price decline, the correction is ongoing but has reached the retracement zone near the 0.5 Fibonacci level. This will be a sensitive time for the pair as it also coincides with the 146.00 resistance level. In case the price breaks beyond the 0.5 level, the upside prospect will continue, but if the price cannot surpass that level, the bearish scenario as mentioned above will take place with the possible reduction target returning to 144.00. And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease?
by Karina_Bella
5
USDJPY: decrease or increase in the new price week?Karina hello everyone! The USD/JPY pair gained traction above the 145.00 mark during the early Asian session on Monday. The pair recovered despite the decline in the US Dollar. The market will likely have a quiet session amid the US bank holiday. However, when considering technical trends and prospects: USDJPY just broke the bullish Trendline and is in a corrective wave with betting resistance stopping the pair at 145,500. The bears gained more advantage when the retracement exceeded the 0.5 Fibo level, showing that buying pressure has decreased a lot. If the 144,800 support level is broken, the bears will have more advantages in pushing the pair back to the 143,500 threshold. And you, do you think USDJPY will increase or decrease in price?
by Karina_Bella
USDJPY : Disadvantages during recoveryHello wonderful friends. Today USDJPY encountered some disadvantages during the recovery process. Accordingly, the upward trend of this currency pair is greatly affected by the news announced yesterday. The price of USDJPY is currently fluctuating around 144,800 USD and has broken out of the support level of 145,300. It is expected that the decrease will continue today and in the coming days. We prioritize SELL with the main profit target set at 144,400 and beyond if favorable, it will be 143,700. Wishing you effective trading!
by Karina_Bella
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-US CPI‼️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: As expected, due to the high correlation between the British pound and the Euro , the situation for these currency pairs before US inflation is absolutely the same. For this pair, scenario №1 is considered worked out. But scenario №2 does not lose its relevance. Therefore, scenario №2 is very relevant before the publication of data from the United States . We set the downside target at 1.26000. We place the stop loss at 1.28500 , closer to 1.29000. If something happens, within the specified stop loss ranges, you can consider adding a position or re-entering the sell. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
USDJPY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Is it going to be the same story again for the USDJPY? In 2022, the USDJPY climbed to reach just below 152 before turning down to the 128 support level. The similar price movement played out in 2023 as the USDJPY rose from the 128 support level to retest the 152 resistance level. The USDJPY has reversed down to the 140 price area (50% Fibonacci retracement level), primarily due to the weakness of the DXY as markets began to price in rate cut scenarios from the US Federal Reserve. This move lower was also due to rumors that the BoJ could end its ultra-loose monetary policy at the December 2023 meeting. However, the BoJ has so far maintained its current policy stance as it continues the fight to bring inflation down to its 2% target level. The longer the BoJ persists with its negative rates regime in 2024, this could continue to bring weakness to the Yen. Combined with some retracement on the DXY, the USDJPY could retest the 143-144 price area (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) in the short term. Look for the BoJ to signal a plan for policy normalization in 2024, to lead to further downside. However, it'll be crucial for the USDJPY to break below the 138-round number support and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level before we can see a significant downside to the 128-support level again.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
USDJPY Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USDJPY next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 147.46 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 148.67 My Stop Loss - 146.81 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
Elliot Correction Wave?! - UJHere I have USD/JPY on the 1 Hr Chart! Our failed Lower Low @ 146.841 (Point B) Kicked off my Bullish Bias on UJ today! I believe this is coming to us in the form of a Elliot Correction Wave! When UJ was in this area back in Mid Sep', it was used as Support! Price has now broke the Confirmation @ 147.905 and is still climbing! Fundamentally this morning the major news for USD was enough to support the Bullish Rush! All currencies have OPEC today! USD has Chicago PMI and Home Sales left today!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
🔵 EURUSD - Another Fall or Going to Higher targets ? By checking the Euro/Dollar chart, as we expected, the price penetrated above the level of 1.09470 for liquidity collection and manipulation, and then experienced a heavy fall to the support area of 1.08585! The efficiency was about +110 pips! After this drop, the price entered the support level that we had determined and we saw how beautifully it reacted to this level and was able to grow again up to 1.09470! Now the price has entered a supply zone in the range of 1.09340 to 1.09650 and if it cannot reach above 1.09650 and stabilize, we will probably see a price correction in this zone ! Please share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me and support us with your likes and comments. Best Regards , Arman Shaban
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
Strifor || EURUSD-21/11/2023Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The euro worked out exactly our previous long scenario. At the moment, the growth is most likely exhausted in the short term and a pullback is expected. The rollback is expected to be towards the nearest support at 1.07750. This is the main scenario. The second scenario assumes that buyers will be able to gain a foothold at current levels, which is unlikely, of course. However, we cannot completely rule out this scenario. Both variants are indicated on the chart. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
6
USDJPY declines due to the weakening of the USD!Hello dear friends! Today, once again the USDJPY pair has moved away from the 150.000 area. As a result, USD/JPY - the amount of Yen that can be purchased with one Dollar - has decreased after the release of the lackluster Non-Farm Payrolls, leading to a series of Dollar sell-offs. From a short-term perspective on the 4-hour chart, this decline has brought the currency pair closer to a potential trend reversal. The two important support levels at 150.500 and 150.00 have been broken. Breaking below the low of 148.80 on October 30th will provide much stronger evidence that the bears have finally turned the tables against the bulls, as this is a lower high of the short-term uptrend.
by Karina_Bella
6
TradePlus-Fx|GOLD: small growth💬 Description: The extreme trading idea for GOLD exactly reached its target at the level of 1948.160 . On a larger scale, a continuation of the decline is considered. Before this, however, there will most likely be a slight recovery with the goal of growth towards the upper limit of the current range at the level of 1997 . The transaction is exclusively short-term in nature, so enter strictly with a stop-loss, as always. For the first trade in a small long position, we set the target at the level of 1972.454 , and for a short trade, the target for the fall will be at the level of 1921 . 🔔 FX CALENDAR TODAY 🔔 🇺🇸Initial Jobless Claims 🇺🇸WASDE Report 🇪🇺ECB President Lagarde Speaks 🇺🇸Fed Chair Powell Speaks ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 🚀Thank for your BOOSTS 🚀 👇Share your views and FOLLOW US 👇
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TradePlus-Fx
11