USD/JPY: week10 updateHi Guys,
this is an update of the post USD/JPY week10 linked in the related ideas below.
View is unchanged: the pair remains squeezed between the two SMAs.
In view of US dollar bearishness and Gold bullishness I would be inclined to be bearish on this pair but I have not made up my mind yet.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
Forex-usdjpy
USD/JPY: above 110.000Hi Guys,
the pair crossed the SMA which technically provides a bearish bias.
However please look at what happen on Jan 27 when it crossed the SMA. That week it didn't fall immediately on Monday. It found support before diving on Wednesday.
Now timing is different. It's Wednseday and DXY has been weakening since the beginning of the week.
Strategy: wait and see
On Thursday US GDP data Q4 will be released which may strenghten USD if above expectations.
Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas.
Disclaimer:
Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. CozzamaraDaZena is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
USD/JPY Bullish Contrarian Trading BiasI'am expecting the continuation of the bullish trend so i am waiting on opportunity to enter the market. I'am using pure price action in combination with custom made trading tool so execution of the trade is highly accurate.
Never Chase the Trade
Contrarian view:
Retail trader data shows 49.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.0 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.8% lower than yesterday and 2.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.3% higher than yesterday and 4.0% higher from last week.
I typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.
USD/JPY Strong Bullish Momentum from FridayLike we saw on Friday, USD appreciate against JPY and made a nice move up. I won't go long at this price but will wait on correction and then go with the trend. Its possible that price will test the previous daily high then a lot of retail traders will come in and then there will be reversal. I will monitor this trade and when my setup becomes valid i will publish the new post.
Retail trader data shows 52.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.1 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.9% higher than yesterday and 0.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.4% lower than yesterday and 0.3% higher from last week.
I typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias.
Yen Rolling Over for Short SetupWith a very tight Minor Pivot Stack in place we can look to short the Yen just below the current price.
The Monthly Pivot Range is strong resistance on the upside for the longer term and has kept the lid on a rally for the last month.
Go short if the price trades through 109.220 and place a stop loss at 110.120. The profit target of 106.340 makes for a good risk reward ratio trade in high probability conditions.
USDJPY How to TradeWhen the price moved above the cloud, the market became bullish. The price reached 110.00 resistance level, bounced from it now we have a sideway movement between this resistance and 109.00 support. DMI confirms range market conditions.
As we have RSI moving upward, DMI which becomes bullish and the price above the cloud - it will be logical if the market continues the uptrend. We should expect to get a breakout above 110.00 which also can be used as a buy signal with stop orders below 109.00 and profit targets at the nearest resistance levels.
An alternative model can be if the price drops below the cloud and 109.00 support. The breakout below will confirm the strength of bears. It will give a new sell opportunity with stop orders above 110.00 resistance and profit targets at the nearest support levels.
USD/JPY vs GOLD: some ideasHi Guys,
Looking for opportunities using inverted correlations between Gold and USD/JPY.
The idea is that when US dollar weakens, money flows into safe heavens like Gold and Japanese Yen and this is why their moves are inversely correlated.
In the above scenario USD/JPY made a clear bottom at 105 on Jan the 3rd. The move has been so fast that economists labelled it a flash crash. Yes it was. But it was also the signal that USD/JPY was bottoming at 105.
On the opposite, 1300 could have been a nice top in Gold. But Gold never got to 1300. It arrived at 1298. For 2 weeks the precious metal ranged between 1298 and 1275 (support B). The fact that Gold is now overtaking A means that Gold (in its process of topping) may be still looking for a top higher than 1300. Be careful that this does not mean that USD/JPY will go lower than 105.
This post is a follow up of an idea posted on Jan 11 and already updated on Jan 16 (links to related ideas below).
Here is the link to the moves made by USD/JPY.