GOLD suffered a fierce sell-off, the US Dollar was strongerOANDA:XAUUSD Continuing to endure a fierce sell-off fueled by market profit-taking and a stronger US dollar, the US Dollar Index rose to a 10-day high on Friday of 107.66 amid concerns about US trade policy and data that raised fears of a recession.
US President Trump confirmed 25% tariffs will be imposed on Mexican and Canadian products next week, March 4. This increases market uncertainty.
Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada does not want to get into a trade war with the United States, but if the United States imposes tariffs on Canadian goods on March 4, Canada "will immediately have an extremely strong response."
Bloomberg said currency traders bought the dollar after US President Trump confirmed he would impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico next week.
On Friday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model predicted that U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025 would be -1.5%, compared with a previous forecast of 2.3%. The US Dollar was boosted after the data was released due to concerns about an economic recession.
OANDA:XAUUSD fell to lows in early New York trading on Friday as Wall Street's major indexes opened weak as investors remained cautious about the potential for price pressure from President Trump's policies.
As US PCE inflation data was in line with expectations, the data suggested the Federal Reserve may be more cautious in cutting interest rates, which helped the dollar remain at a two-week high.
The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year in January, in line with expectations. The overall PCE price index in the United States increased 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-over-year in January, also in line with expectations.
However, “personally” believes that PCE data does not significantly change Fed price expectations, so it essentially has a small impact on gold prices.
Spot gold prices fell 2.7% in the past trading week, the largest weekly decline since November last year.
Next, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP), (ADP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports will become important market data. If inflation data rises too high, it could trigger a sharp sell-off in gold, and the opposite effect if slowing inflation data stimulates market bets on the Fed's ability to cut interest rates.
Of course, further analysis of the above data will be sent to readers in daily publications.
Economic data to watch next week
Monday: Euro Flash CPI Estimates, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: ADP jobs report; ISM US Services PMI
Thursday: European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision, US Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls.
Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD
In addition, investors will also pay attention to the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision, which could have an impact on gold prices next week. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again next week, which could partially support the USD, thereby negatively impacting gold prices next week.
With its current position, gold does not have enough conditions to continue falling in price as long as gold maintains price activity above 2,835 USD and Fibonacci retracement of 0.382%, along with the Relative Strength Index above 50. On the other hand, a confirmation signal for gold price to end the downward correction cycle is price activity returning to the price channel.
However, traders also need to be careful as a new bearish cycle will open up once RSI goes below 50, the price chart is sold below 2,814 USD, so protective positions should be placed behind 2,814 USD.
In the short term, gold is still in a downward correction cycle and the notable points will be listed as follows.
As for "personally", I continue to defend the view that declines are only short-term corrections and not a sustainable trend, declines can also be considered an opportunity to buy.
Support: 2,835 – 2,814USD
Resistance: 2,868 – 2,900USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2896 - 2894⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2900
→Take Profit 1 2888
↨
→Take Profit 2 2882
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2819 - 2821⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2815
→Take Profit 1 2827
↨
→Take Profit 2 2833
