USOIL Will Move Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for USOIL.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 63.114.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 68.050 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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Forex
HelenP. I Gold will start to decline, after long upward moveHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Recently, price has shown a powerful rally after breaking out from a prolonged consolidation phase that lasted several days. This sideways movement was confined inside the buyer zone near 2855 - 2835 points, which acted as a reliable base for bulls. After forming a solid structure in that area, the price started to move higher, eventually breaking through the resistance of the range and forming a clear uptrend supported by a well-defined trend line. After climbing steadily, the price reached the 3160 support level, which turned into a retest zone later on. A strong impulse followed, pushing Gold above the trend line and into a new higher range. The bullish momentum continued, bringing the price above the 3180 - 3160 zone, and establishing a new local high. Currently, XAUUSD is trading near 3327 points after forming a local peak. It’s showing early signs of a pullback from the top, and the structure suggests a potential correction. I expect the price to decline toward the trend line and reach the 3265 points, which coincides with the trend line. That's why it's my current goal. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD 3 TARGETS for selling 3 TOPS. The 5 year cheat-sheet!The EURUSD pair opened the week with a strong rally already due to the fundamentals surrounding the recent Tariff news. The 1W RSI is overbought at 74.00 and it hasn't been that high since January 22 2018. That was a long-term Top for EURUSD that initiated a 2-year downtrend until the March 2020 COVID crash and the start of massive rate hiking.
Even the last two times that the RSI came close to such overbought levels, the pair started a 6-month peak formation pattern with 3 Highs that offered solid short entries before the eventual larger downtrend. Those periods were January 30 2023 - July 17 2023 and August 31 2020 - May 24 2021.
Given that EURUSD is now trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and just formed a 1D MA50/ 1W MA50 Bullish Cross, we are closer to High (1) than not, since every time that is formed close to the standard +16.19% rise from the bottom.
For those successive Highs, our long-term sell targets will be 1.12500, 1.13250 and 1.12000 on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level respectively.
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GOLD Is Very Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 3,327.58.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 3,360.10 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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SILVER SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
SILVER SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 32.821
Target Level: 31.594
Stop Loss: 33.634
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 5h
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EUR/GBP BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
EUR/GBP SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 0.860
Target Level: 0.843
Stop Loss: 0.872
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
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CHFJPY: Back to the Trend?! 🇨🇭🇯🇵
CHFJPY looks bullish after a test of a key daily horizontal support.
It looks like the correction that we currently see on intraday time frames is over.
As a confirmation, I see a bullish breakout of a resistance line of a bullish flag
pattern on an hourly time frame.
Goal - 175.62
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GBP/CHF SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
GBP/CHF SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 1.140
Target Level: 1.128
Stop Loss: 1.148
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [April 21 - April 25]Earlier this week, the international OANDA:XAUUSD fell from $3,245/oz to $3,193/oz after US President Donald Trump exempted tariffs on 20 goods, including smartphones, laptops, hard drives, computer monitors and machinery used to produce semiconductors and chips. However, the US-China trade war became increasingly tense when Mr. Trump announced a tax of up to 245% on Chinese goods imported into the US, pushing the gold price to skyrocket to $3,357/oz, then adjusted down to $3,283/oz and closed the week at $3,327/oz.
Many experts believe that the unpredictable policy changes of the US President, as well as the risk of a global economic recession, especially Mr. Trump's threat to remove FED Chairman Powell...
May continue to support gold prices in the short term. In addition, the weakening of the USD has also been actively supporting the upward momentum of gold prices.
🕹SOME DATA THAT MAY AFFECT GOLD PRICES THIS WEEK:
There won’t be many important economic reports coming up next week, especially since markets will be closed on Monday for the Easter holiday.
On Wednesday, markets will get the preliminary S&P Global Composite PMI for April and new home sales data for March. On Thursday, a slew of important data will be released, including durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims and existing home sales. The weekend will close with the final report on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Markets will also be closely watching speeches from Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Adriana Kugler and Patrick Harker, especially after notable comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday.
📌Technically, gold is already deep in overbought territory, and a technical correction could be imminent before gold can move higher. Depending on the strength of the correction, gold could fall to $3,250/oz next week, followed by $3,150/oz, and then the psychological support of $3,000/oz. However, if $3,300/oz proves to be a solid support level, gold could soon break above $3,400/oz next week. It could even go as high as $3,500/oz if US-China trade tensions continue to escalate.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,304 – 3,300 – 3,261USD
Resistance: 3,338 – 3,372USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3394 - 3392⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3398
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3243 - 3245⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3239
EURCAD Short 4//17/2025EUR/CAD Short (Re-entry After Rate Cut Reversal)
Got stopped out on the previous attempt — but this re-entry offered a stronger, higher-timeframe confirmation.
Daily Chart: We printed a long-tailed hammer rejecting hard off a key weekly zone. That wick tested liquidity and snapped back, giving early signs of euro exhaustion. Today, price is flipping into what looks like a bearish engulfing candle — pending the close — suggesting trend reversal pressure is real.
Catalyst: The ECB dropped a 25bps rate cut, a shift from my earlier post when no EU news was expected. This move added strong bearish sentiment, especially paired with continued U.S. trade pressure under Trump’s new tariffs. Macro + technicals aligned = clean setup.
4H Chart: Multiple rejections off the weekly zone after that liquidity sweep, followed by an inside bar setup — that was my re-entry trigger. I’ve been holding since yesterday and we’re now running a 1:6.27 R:R play toward a key downside target.
1H Chart: During and after the ECB announcement, price action got messy — hammers, dojis, and fake bullish pushes all turned into supply-heavy rejections. That’s typical “fade the news” behavior when the big players already had their direction.
Key Zone: 1.56800 is the final liquidity shelf before price enters clean air. Once we get a solid 4H close below that zone, I expect price to accelerate toward my target at 1.55727.
This one’s got weight behind it — technical structure, macro catalysts, and institutional pressure all aligned.
Gold Daily Outlook Short-Term Pullback Before Trend Continuation📌 Gold Daily Outlook – Short-Term Pullback Before Trend Continuation? 💡📉
📊 Technical Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently testing a key resistance zone around 3412 – 3414, where we could see short-term selling pressure emerge after recent bullish momentum. Following a strong rally, the market may be preparing for a healthy retracement to collect liquidity before resuming the trend.
The chart shows signs of a potential intraday distribution pattern forming near highs, especially as price struggles to break above resistance during the early Asian session. Today’s outlook leans toward a short-term dip into support zones before buyers potentially step back in.
🔴 SELL ZONE (Short-term Reversal Opportunity)
Entry: 3412 – 3414
Stop Loss: 3420
Take Profit: 3409 → 3400 → 3390 → 3380 → 3370
This is a high-probability reversal zone. If price prints bearish confirmation (e.g., pin bar or engulfing candle), short entries may offer favourable risk-reward setups.
🟢 BUY ZONE 1 – Minor Pullback Area
Entry: 3355 – 3353
Stop Loss: 3348
Take Profit: 3358 → 3370 → 3380 → 3390 → 3400
Ideal for quick buy setups if price reacts cleanly to this mid-structure level.
🟢 BUY ZONE 2 – Deeper Support for Trend Re-entry
Entry: 3335 – 3333
Stop Loss: 3328
Take Profit: 3338 → 3350 → 3360 → 3370 → 3380
If a deeper pullback occurs, this zone may act as a key demand area and offer clean trend continuation opportunities.
🌍 Fundamental Insight
No major economic events are scheduled today, so market direction will likely follow technical structure.
USD is showing mild intraday strength, adding some pressure on gold in the short term.
Overall sentiment still supports gold as a safe-haven, but short-term profit-taking near highs is expected after recent aggressive buying.
⚠️ Strategy Notes
Focus on trading within defined structure: Sell from resistance with confirmation; buy dips at clean support zones.
Avoid FOMO entries – let the market give you confirmation.
Always use clear TP/SL levels – especially in a sensitive market environment like this.
💬 How are you approaching gold today? Looking to fade highs or waiting for dip-buy setups? Drop your thoughts below! 👇👇👇
EURJPY --- bullish or bearish detailed analysis EURJPY is currently offering a high-conviction long opportunity as the pair completes a classic falling wedge breakout pattern on the daily timeframe. Price is now trading around 162.45 and has just broken out of a well-defined descending trendline, validating the bullish momentum shift. With the recent higher low formation and the wedge breakout confirming bullish market structure, the next leg toward the 167.36 zone is on the table, aligning with a clean resistance level and historical price reaction zone.
Fundamentally, the Euro is underpinned by the ECB’s cautious stance on rate cuts, as inflation in the Eurozone remains above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen continues to weaken amid growing divergence between the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy and other global central banks maintaining relatively tight conditions. BoJ’s reluctance to tighten, combined with consistent intervention threats, hasn’t been enough to halt the Yen’s decline, making EURJPY an attractive long in the current macro backdrop.
Technicals align perfectly here—after a solid rally from the wedge bottom, EURJPY consolidated in a descending channel and has now broken out for a second time, repeating a bullish continuation pattern. The structure remains clean with clear invalidation below 161.26, offering a strong reward-to-risk ratio on continuation toward 167+. The multiple confluences of trendline breakouts, bullish market structure, and macro divergence make this a premium swing setup.
Highly searched keywords like “EURJPY breakout,” “falling wedge pattern,” and “JPY weakness” will drive additional traffic to this idea. With both price action and fundamentals in sync, this trade idea is structured to maximize upside potential while keeping risk controlled. A clean, strategic long setup that reflects disciplined execution and market awareness.
BTC - The power of fibonacci This is a textbook example of how institutional price delivery often unfolds when targeting liquidity and rebalancing inefficiencies. The current BTC 1H chart displays a high-probability short scenario developing after a liquidity sweep, combined with entry into a fair value gap (FVG) chain and Fibonacci-based premium pricing. Let’s break down the mechanics of this setup layer by layer.
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1. Liquidity Grab Above Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL)
The first major clue that institutional activity is at play is the clean sweep of Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) .
- A previous swing high acted as a magnet for liquidity, with stop-loss orders from short sellers and breakout entries from late longs accumulating above this level.
- Price pierced above it, only to immediately reverse—this is what we refer to as a liquidity grab , signaling engineered movement designed to fuel larger orders.
- This behavior often represents the conclusion of a bullish leg and the transition into a distribution phase or a bearish delivery sequence.
This sweep is not random; it's a deliberate market manipulation mechanism—classic of a “trap and reverse” pattern.
---
2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Chain: Imbalance as a Magnet
After rejecting above the BSL, price began retracing downward, but left behind multiple Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) . These are inefficiencies between price candles where institutional orders did not fully fill.
- These FVGs now form what we call a “chain” or cluster, providing a roadmap for price to return and rebalance.
- The current move upward is revisiting this chain of inefficiencies, offering a potential re-entry zone for institutions to offload positions accumulated earlier.
- FVGs in premium zones (above equilibrium) are particularly potent—they align with institutional interest to sell at value.
This aligns with the concept that price often returns to inefficiencies before continuing its true direction—especially when paired with a prior liquidity grab.
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3. Golden Pocket and the Premium Zone Confluence
The retracement found a reaction at the Golden Pocket level (0.618–0.65 Fibonacci zone) , which is significant not just for its mathematical roots but for how frequently smart money uses it for mitigation and continuation entries.
- The zone lines up directly with the FVG chain, creating a powerful confluence zone where institutional footprints are likely to reappear.
- This area is within a clear premium pricing territory , above the 0.5 Fibonacci mark—ideal for distribution in bearish re-accumulation setups.
This convergence of technical signals bolsters the case that the current move upward is a mere retracement, not a genuine trend reversal.
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4. Market Structure Context
From a structural point of view:
- Price has transitioned from a range into a lower high formation after the BSL sweep.
- The series of lower highs and lower lows began forming after the grab, which implies a potential shift in short-term order flow.
Combine this with the FVG chain and the premium pricing—it paints a narrative of bearish continuation rather than trend expansion to the upside.
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5. Institutional Narrative: Engineering, Repricing, and Continuation
This setup is less about indicators and more about understanding narrative:
- Institutions engineered a liquidity sweep to fill large sell orders at premium pricing.
- The imbalance left behind (FVGs) serves as a “pullback magnet” before full bearish delivery.
- Price is currently delivering into that inefficiency, likely forming a redistribution schematic.
The most probable scenario, given this context, is a rejection within this zone and a continuation to the downside as price seeks to break internal structure and move toward sell-side liquidity (SSL) resting below.
---
Conclusion:
This chart captures the essence of smart money price delivery:
- Sweep → Retrace → Mitigation → Continuation
The rejection from the FVG chain and golden pocket zone will be key to confirming this scenario. If price respects this confluence, expect bearish order flow to dominate the next sessions.
This is a high-quality setup based on narrative, structure, and liquidity—not random confluence, but a storyline of engineered movement and institutional footprints.
OIL – Bearish Setup at FVG + Golden Pocket ConfluenceThis 4H chart of Crude Oil Futures highlights a clean bearish setup forming as price approaches a confluence zone of imbalance and premium pricing. After a sharp downward move, the current rally appears to be a retracement into areas of interest for potential distribution.
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1. Context & Market Structure:
- The market experienced a significant bearish move, breaking multiple support levels with conviction.
- Price is currently retracing upward, creating the possibility of a lower high in line with bearish market structure.
- The ongoing move looks corrective, setting up a potential return to the dominant trend.
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2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) & Key Supply Zones:
- Two FVGs are identified on the chart — both marked as areas where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficiencies behind.
- The lower FVG overlaps with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci golden pocket zone, providing a strong confluence for potential rejection.
- The upper FVG aligns with the 0.786 level, representing deeper premium pricing and added confluence for distribution.
---
3. Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
- 0.618–0.65 zone: Coincides with the lower FVG — this is the first area to watch for rejection.
- 0.786 level: Aligns with the upper FVG, making it an extended zone for bearish entries if price pushes higher.
- These Fibonacci levels serve as key retracement zones within the context of bearish continuation.
---
4. Anticipated Move:
- The red arrow illustrates the projected path: price reaching into the FVG and golden pocket confluence, then rejecting to the downside.
- The inefficiencies above act as supply zones where institutional selling may occur.
- The lower purple level (0.28) is a potential magnet for price if the retracement completes and bearish momentum resumes.
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5. Trade Idea Narrative:
- This is a classic bearish setup where price retraces into premium and inefficiency zones during a downtrend.
- The ideal reaction would involve a shift in lower timeframe structure once the price hits the golden pocket + FVG zone.
- Patience and confirmation are key — watching for rejection patterns or breakdowns within the FVG before commitment.
---
Summary:
Crude Oil is retracing after a sharp drop and is approaching a high-probability reversal zone, where a Fair Value Gap overlaps with the golden pocket. This setup provides a strong narrative for potential bearish continuation, supported by structure, imbalance, and Fibonacci confluence.
Market Structure Shift (MSS) & Break of Structure (BOS) - GuideIntroduction
Understanding market structure is fundamental to becoming a consistently profitable trader. Two key concepts that Smart Money traders rely on are the Break of Structure (BOS) and the Market Structure Shift (MSS) . While they may seem similar at first glance, they serve different purposes and signal different market intentions.
In this guide, we will break down:
- The difference between BOS and MSS
- When and why they occur
- How to identify them on your charts
- How to trade based on these structures
- Real chart examples for visual clarity
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Break of Structure (BOS)
A Break of Structure is a continuation signal. It confirms that the current trend remains intact. BOS typically occurs when price breaks a recent swing high or low in the direction of the existing trend .
Key Characteristics:
- Happens with the trend
- Confirms continuation
- Can be used to trail stops or add to positions
Example:
In an uptrend:
- Higher High (HH) and Higher Low (HL) form
- Price breaks above the last HH → BOS to the upside
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Market Structure Shift (MSS)
Market Structure Shift signals a potential reversal . It occurs when price breaks a significant swing level against the prevailing trend and is often followed by a shift in the internal structure (e.g., lower highs after higher highs).
Key Characteristics:
- Happens against the trend]
- Signals possible trend reversal
- Often occurs after a liquidity grab or stop hunt
- Optional: is created by a displacement candle
Example:
In an uptrend:
- Price takes out a significant high (liquidity grab)
- Then aggressively breaks the most recent HL → MSS to the downside
---
How to Identify BOS and MSS
For BOS:
1. Determine the current trend.
2. Identify swing highs/lows.
3. Look for price breaking past these levels in the same direction as the trend .
For MSS:
1. Look for signs of exhaustion or liquidity grabs near swing highs/lows.
2. Watch for price to break against the trend structure .
3. Confirm with a shift in internal structure (e.g., lower highs start forming in an uptrend).
---
Using BOS and MSS in Your Trading Strategy
With BOS:
- Use it to confirm trend continuation
- Add to your position after a retracement into an OB or FVG
- Trail your stop-loss below the most recent HL or above LH
With MSS:
- Look for confluence (liquidity sweep + MSS = strong signal)
- Use it to spot early reversal entries
- Wait for a confirmation candle or structure shift on LTF (1m, 5m, 15m)
- If the displacement candle is too big you can wait for the retest
---
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Confusing BOS with MSS
- Ignoring higher timeframe context
- Trading MSS too early without confirmation
- Chasing BOS without waiting for a proper retracement
Pro Tip: Use BOS/MSS with confluences like SMT Divergence, IFVGs, or key session times for higher probability setups.
---
Final Thoughts
Mastering BOS and MSS will give you an edge in understanding price delivery and anticipating market moves. BOS confirms strength in the current trend, while MSS warns of a possible reversal and new trend forming. Combine these with smart money tools, and you’ll be equipped to enter the market like a pro.
Happy Trading!
EUR/USD Short, AUD/USD Short and EUR/AUD Short (Trade Recap)EUR/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
AUD/USD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Break above area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
EUR/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• Corrective tap into area of value.
• 4H risk entry or 1H risk entry after 2 x 1H rejection candles.
Minimum entry requirements:
• Tap into area of value.
• 1H impulse down below area of value.
• If tight non-structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 5 min risk entry within it.
• If tight non-structured 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it if the continuation is structured on the 5 min chart or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight structured 15 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it or 15 min risk entry within it.
USDX,DXYUSDX price is near the important support zone 98.23-97.75. If the price cannot break through the 97.75 level, it is expected that in the short term there is a chance that the price will rebound.
**Very Risky Trade
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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