XAUUSD Update – Key Levels in Play!🚀 XAUUSD Update – Key Levels in Play!
📉 Major Support & Rebound
As predicted in our recent analysis, gold found strong support at $2880, triggering a bullish reversal. This move has sent XAUUSD soaring back above $2950, securing a +2.58% gain in the process.
🔥 Technical Setup & Key Observations
✅ Head & Shoulders Formation on Hourly – A clear bearish structure is forming, but confirmation is still required.
✅ Failed Breakout at $2940 – Gold attempted to push higher but failed to hold above resistance, moving back into the range.
✅ Critical Support at $2925 – This is the key level to watch. A confirmed break below could trigger a further drop toward $2900.
📊 What’s Next?
🔹 Bearish Scenario – If price breaks $2925, expect a decline toward $2900, with further downside possible.
🔹 Bullish Invalidations – If XAUUSD reclaims $2940, the head & shoulders pattern fails, and we could see a renewed rally toward $2960+.
🔹 Watch Volume & Momentum – Increased selling pressure will validate the bearish move, while strong buying at key levels may shift the trend.
🎯 Trading Plan & Strategy
📌 Short positions on a confirmed $2925 break, targeting $2900.
📌 Long positions only above $2940, with targets at $2960 and beyond.
📌 Stay cautious—this is a key inflection zone, and price action will dictate the next move.
💡 Gold’s next major move is in the making—are you positioned correctly? 🚀📊
Forex
EURUSD Analysis... and MORE!Here is some analysis on EURUSD, USDCHF, and a couple of other things.
I'm expecting higher prices on EURUSD and likewise some lower prices on USDCHF. I've already entered some positions, but there may be opportunities for more re-entries down the road as we may have some days or weeks to get to my targets.
I use ICT concepts along with my own revelations. I hope you find it useful.
Happy trading.
- R2F Trading
JPY USD 1. Support May Not Hold
The analysis assumes that the price will bounce from the support area, but what if selling pressure is strong?
Instead of a reversal, the price could break below support and continue down. A breakdown below 0.006580 would invalidate the bullish outlook.
2. False Support Bounce Possible
The price could initially react at support, giving the illusion of a bullish reversal, but fail to gain momentum and break lower. This could trap early buyers.
3. Liquidity Grab & Fakeout Scenario
The market makers could push the price below the support zone, trigger stop-losses of long positions, and then reverse higher.
A deeper liquidity grab could occur before a real move up.
4. Resistance May Strengthen
Even if price bounces, the resistance zone could become stronger, leading to a sideways range rather than a clear bullish breakout.
Traders should watch for signs of exhaustion before assuming a continuation upward.
Alternative Outlook
If price breaks below 0.006580, the downtrend could extend further.
A bounce from support should be confirmed with strong bullish candles before assuming a rally.
GBPUSD SELLING MODE OPPORTUNITY FULL OF FALL ASLEEP 1. Resistance May Not Hold
The analysis assumes the resistance zone is strong and will lead to a reversal. However, if bullish momentum continues, there could be a breakout above resistance instead of rejection. A breakout above 1.2680 could invalidate the bearish outlook.
2. Trendline Breakout Is Not Always Reliable
While the breakout from the support area led to a strong uptrend, it doesn't guarantee a reversal at resistance. Sometimes, price consolidates and continues higher rather than reversing sharply.
3. Liquidity Grab Possibility
The price could fake a drop below support, trapping sellers, before reversing higher. The marked "selling zone" might be a liquidity area where big players accumulate positions before a breakout.
4. Fundamental Factors Can Change Direction
News events, interest rate decisions, or economic reports can disrupt technical patterns. A major announcement favoring GBP could push the price higher instead of following the predicted bearish move.
Alternative Outlook
If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2680, it could invalidate the bearish setup and target 1.2720+ instead of dropping.
Instead of expecting a hard rejection at resistance, traders should watch for signs of consolidation or a fake breakout before making a decision.
EUR-USD Potential Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD went up just
As I predicted in my
Previous analysis but
Will soon hit a horizontal
Resistance level of 1.0536
From where we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Kiwi (NZD/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 0.5781
1st Support: 0.5743
1st Resistance: 0.5809
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EURUSD: This is a temporary rebound inside a long term Bear FlagEURUSD has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.188, MACD = 0.002, ADX = 17.971) but on the 1W timeframe this short term recovery is nothing but a Bear Flag on the aggressive decline that has started last September. The 1D RSI pattern is basically repeating the Bear Flags of January 2022 and August-September 2018 and the lowest target has been the 0.85 Fibonacci level. We expect it to reach this level again sooner or later. Go short, TP = 0.98150.
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XAUUSD strong bullish mode opportunity all time high market (gold big flying soon)
1. Resistance Area May Not Hold
The marked resistance area could be weak if bullish momentum continues strongly, especially with a breakout above recent highs.
If price consolidates near resistance without strong rejection, it may indicate accumulation rather than reversal
2. Support Areas Could Fail
The support zones might not hold if there's a strong bearish catalyst, like economic news or a shift in market sentiment.
A breakdown below the strong bullish support area could signal a deeper pullback.
3. Alternative Scenarios
Instead of bouncing from the lower support, the price might consolidate and range before a clear breakout direction.
A false breakout above resistance could trigger a liquidity grab, leading to a sharp drop instead of an upward move.
4. Indicators & Confirmation Needed
The chart does not include indicators like RSI, MACD, or moving averages, which could provide additional confirmation
ETHUSD surely flying around Resistance Might Hold Stronger Than Expected:
The analysis assumes a breakout above the resistance area. However, if market sentiment weakens, sellers might defend this level aggressively, leading to a rejection and price reversal.
2. Liquidity Grab and Fake Breakout:
Instead of a clean breakout, price could exhibit a false move above resistance to trigger stop-losses before reversing sharply downward.
3. Support Might Not Hold:
The identified support area assumes bullish strength, but if macroeconomic factors or market conditions worsen, ETH could break below support and trend lower.
4. Trendline Trap:
The projected price movement suggests a higher high formation. However, if institutional traders manipulate price action, we might see a deeper retracement before any actual bullish continuation
EURJPY LongThe price has completed the retracement after breaking the last Lower High.
From now on we should with high probability expect the price to rally back up to the last swing high of $161.2 and see if it can break it before making another Higher Higher from there.
But before that, there are two significant OBs on the way up that the price can face significant selling pressure from. We need to watch those zones closely.
Btcusd strong sell 1. Breakout Possibility Instead of Rejection
The chart assumes Bitcoin will face resistance at ~99,000 and drop towards the 96,000 support zone. However, Bitcoin has shown strong bullish momentum leading up to this point. If the buying pressure continues, BTC could break out above resistance instead of reversing.
A clean breakout and retest of the resistance zone as new support could send BTC toward 100,000+ rather than declining.
2. Liquidity Trap & Fakeout Risks
Market makers often target areas with high liquidity. If many traders anticipate a drop from resistance, a fakeout could occur—where BTC briefly dips, then reverses upward, liquidating short positions.
Instead of a clean sell-off, price could wick down to shake out weak hands before continuing higher
3. Support May Not Hold
The identified support area near 96,000 assumes buyers will step in. However, if market sentiment shifts (e.g., news events, macroeconomic data), BTC could crash through support instead of bouncing
If BTC closes below support, the next downside target could be around 94,000 or lower.
4. Fundamental & External Factors
Technical patterns are useful, but external factors like news, ETF inflows, and macroeconomic conditions can disrupt traditional price movements
If a major bullish event (e.g., institutional buying, regulatory clarity) occurs, BTC could invalidate the expected bearish retracement and continue surging
Conclusion:
While the given analysis suggests a bearish correction from resistance alternative scenarios include
A bullish breakout above resistance
A fakeout drop before continuation higher
A failed support level leading to deeper declines.
External catalysts overriding technical expectations
Bullish rise?NZD/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.5743
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
Stop loss: 0.5693
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 0.5808
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that is slightly above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
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Bullish bounce off overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support that aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 149.37
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 147.14
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 151.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Potential bullish bounce?USD/CAD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.4140
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Stop loss: 1.4074
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit: 1.4239
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
GBPUSDhello friends
Due to the severe fall that we had and cardamom breaking respectively.
Now, with another bottom failure, the price is placed in a good area, and from there, by getting confirmation, we can expect a good reaction.
This analysis is checked from a technical point of view.
Be successful and profitable.
GBP/USD Trade Recap – A Perfect Long Setup 1️⃣ Trade Execution – Why I Took the Long Position
Today’s GBP/USD trade was a textbook example of combining Fibonacci retracements, smart money positioning, and seasonality trends to catch a high-probability long setup.
💡 Entry Details:
✅ Entry: 1.2600 (Fibonacci golden zone)
✅ Stop Loss: 1.2587 (Below structure)
✅ Take Profit: 1.2635 (Key resistance zone)
✅ Risk-Reward Ratio: 3:1
🎯 Result: Hit TP at 1.2635 for a solid profit! ✅
2️⃣ Why This Trade Worked – A Breakdown of the Confluences
📊 Fibonacci Retracement – Perfect Pullback & Reversal
Price retraced to the 61.8%-78.6% Fibonacci zone (1.2600 - 1.2593) before reversing.
The bullish move was expected after a strong impulse leg, following smart money positioning.
📈 Smart Money & Retail Sentiment – Trading Against the Herd
🔹 62% of retail traders were SHORT on GBP/USD (as per DMX data).
🔹 Since I trade against retail sentiment, this provided a strong bullish confirmation.
🔹 Institutional COT data showed big players increasing long positions, further supporting a bullish bias.
🕵️♂️ Seasonality & Historical Trends Supported the Long
📊 15-year seasonality data indicated GBP/USD typically rallies in late February and early March.
📅 The next 3-5 day forecast showed a bullish probability, adding further conviction.
📉 Technical Confirmation – Momentum Indicators & Structure
✅ SuperTrend flipped bullish on the 4H chart
✅ Price was trading above key moving averages (EMA 6, 24, 72, 288)
✅ Broke above short-term trendline resistance, confirming upward momentum
3️⃣ Key Takeaways from This Trade
🔹 Trading with smart money & against retail sentiment = High probability setups
🔹 Seasonality provided extra confidence in taking the long trade
🔹 Using Fibonacci and EMAs for confluence led to a precise entry
🔹 Patience and risk management were key to securing profits
📌 Final Thoughts – What’s Next for GBP/USD?
🚀 With this bullish breakout, I will look for further longs on dips, targeting the next key resistance at 1.2680 - 1.2700.
👀 Are you bullish or bearish on GBP/USD? Let’s discuss in the comments!
EUR/USD - High-Probability Short Setup! Are we going lower?EUR/USD - This trade is based on a bearish retracement rejection from a key Fair Value Gap (FVG), targeting a strong confluence area where Fibonacci levels and volume profile data align.
🔹 Entry Criteria:
Price has tapped into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) twice, showing signs of rejection.
The green zone represents an imbalance where sellers previously stepped in, making it an ideal short entry area.
Look for bearish confirmation, such as wicks, bearish engulfing candles, or lower timeframe breakdowns before executing the trade.
🔹 Target (Take Profit - TP):
The primary target is the 0.618 - 0.65 Fibonacci retracement zone (Golden Pocket), a strong level where price often reverses.
This level aligns with the Point of Control (POC) from the volume profile tool, adding further confluence.
🔹 Stop-Loss & Invalidation:
Stop-loss should be placed above the last high near the FVG zone to protect against invalidation.
If price closes above the FVG zone, the trade setup becomes invalid, as it would indicate bullish strength and a possible continuation higher.
🔹 Additional Considerations:
Price is likely seeking sell-side liquidity below previous lows, supporting the downside move.
Market conditions and potential fundamental catalysts (news events) should be monitored before entry.
📌 Summary:
This trade idea involves shorting from a key imbalance zone (FVG), expecting price to fill the gap and move toward a high-probability support area at the Golden Pocket + POC confluence zone. However, if price closes above the FVG, the trade setup is invalidated, signaling a potential bullish continuation. 🚀
__________________________________________
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If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 🙌 and leave a comment—I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀
Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together!📈
Gold prices are also maintaining at historic peak levelsAccording to analysis, the domestic and foreign gold markets are being strongly influenced by the forums of the US Federal Reserve (FED) and the main US trade lists.
Recently, President Donald Trump continued to announce that he could impose a 25% tax on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals...
Investors continue to look to gold as a safe foreign channel, amid worries about international trade tensions and negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine that have not yet had positive results as expected.
The USD index remained at its lowest level in about 2 months, around 106.9 points, also supporting the rise of gold prices.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market CommitteeCommittee participants began discussions related to their review of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework. This review is focused on two specific areas: the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which presents the Committee's approach to the conduct of monetary policy, and the Committee's policy communication practices. The Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation goal will be retained and is not a focus of the review.
The manager noted that inflation offsets overall increased slightly. However, both the survey measures of inflation expectations and prices in the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market remained fairly consistent with predictions that inflation would return to the Committee's 2% inflation target.
In money markets, the manager noted that a quarter-point lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate in December was fully carried over to other short-term rates. Additionally, the 5 basis point technical adjustment to the overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) offering rate made in December appears to have been passed through almost entirely to the repurchase agreement (repo) rate.
USD/JPY Breaking Lower, Fib Levels in Play📉 Key Breakdown Below 150.00
USD/JPY has fallen sharply, breaking below key support at 151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement) and testing 149.63 (50% Fib level).
The pair is trading below both the 50-day EMA (153.80) and 200-day EMA (152.17), reinforcing downside pressure.
🔍 Technical Levels to Watch:
Support:
149.23 (50% Fib retracement) → Current price is testing this level.
146.95 (61.8% Fib retracement) → Next major downside target.
143.71 (78.6% Fib retracement) → Deeper bearish target.
Resistance:
151.50 (38.2% Fib retracement, former support, now resistance)
152.17 (200-day EMA) → A key level to reclaim for bulls.
📊 Momentum Indicators Bearish:
RSI at 33.18 → Near oversold territory, but still trending downward.
Bearish momentum accelerating, further losses possible.
🔻 What’s Next?
If USD/JPY holds below 150.00, expect further downside toward 146.95.
A recovery above 151.50 could neutralize the immediate bearish outlook.
Right now, momentum favors the bears, and lower Fib levels remain in focus.
-MW