Gold suddenly increased sharply Hey everyone, let’s dive into what’s happening with XAUUSD!
Gold is experiencing a remarkable rally this weekend, skyrocketing from the $3,285 zone to around $3,362 — gaining over 700 pips. This sharp move comes amid weakening U.S. labor market data, which has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates as early as September.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (August 1st), non-farm payrolls rose by just 73,000 jobs in July — well below economists’ expectations of 106,000. The disappointing figures have shaken confidence in the U.S. economy and placed pressure on the U.S. dollar, as markets increasingly anticipate a dovish shift from the Fed.
For gold, this weak jobs report reinforces its role as a safe-haven asset, driving strong demand as investors seek protection from economic uncertainty. At the same time, lingering fears around global trade tensions and new tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump continue to support the flight to safety.
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of its descending price channel and is moving fast. According to Dow Theory, a short-term correction may occur soon, but if price holds above key support levels, the rally could extend toward the $3,432 region — the 1.618 Fibonacci extension zone.
This move might mark the beginning of a new bullish phase after weeks of consolidation.
What do you think — is gold just getting started?
Forex
USDCAD SELLUSD/CAD rallies further, approaches 1.3900 on higher levies to Canada
The US Dollar keeps marching higher, as the Canadian Dollar struggles after Trump decided to increase tariffs to Canada to 35% from the previous 25%, escalating the trading tension with one of its main trading partners. The US President justified his decision on Canada’s alleged reluctance to cooperate on curbing the traffic of fentanyl and other drugs across the US border
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Canada’s political crisis peaked in late 2024 with a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leading to snap elections and a weakened Liberal minority government. Policy uncertainty and economic challenges dominate 2025’s outlook, raising concerns over market stability and investor confidence.
The BoC is set to continue easing interest rates through 2025, at least at a faster pace than the Fed is expected to, which could apply pressure on CAD’s already-rising rate differential.
SUPPORT 1.38444
SUPPORT 1.38039
SUPPORT 1.37621
RESISTANCE 1.38889
RESISTANCE 1.39049
EUR/CAD BUYERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the EUR/CAD with the target of 1.607 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/JPY Setup: Retail is 82% Short – Squeeze First, Drop After?🔹 Technical Context
Price reacted with a strong bullish wick in the 169.50–170.30 demand zone, signaling clear buyer defense. The RSI bounced from weakness but remains subdued, showing limited momentum.
📍 Current price action suggests a potential retest of the 172.50–173.30 area, which aligns with a supply zone, before a possible directional decision is made.
🗓️ Seasonality
Historically, August tends to be bearish for EUR/JPY:
5Y average: -0.48%
10Y average: -0.12%
15Y/20Y averages: -1.3% and -1.2%
📉 Seasonality indicates potential weakness, especially in the second half of the month.
🪙 COT Report (EURO & YEN) – July 22
EURO: Strong long accumulation by non-commercials (+6,284) and commercials (+17,575)
JPY: Net decline in both longs (-1,033) and shorts (-4,096), with a drop in total open interest
🧠 The market is heavily positioned on the Euro, while Yen positioning is fading. This creates a divergence between the two currencies, favoring a short-term technical bounce on EUR/JPY, though downside risks remain in the mid-term.
📉 Sentiment
82% of retail traders are short EUR/JPY
Volume: 1,564 lots short vs 352 lots long
📣 This extreme sentiment imbalance suggests a potential short-term squeeze against retail traders.
📊 Market Mood & DPO
Overall mood: Neutral
DPO at -9.0, Wyckoff score below 50
Momentum remains weak, but not showing a clear divergence.
🧩 Operational Summary
Retest of the 172.50–173.30 supply zone
Likely exhaustion in that area
Ideal setup: rejection + bearish confirmation
→ Targets: 170.30, then 169.00
$USPCEPIMC -U.S PCE Prices Rise (June/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
June/2025
source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
- The US PCE price index rose by 0.3% mom in June, the largest increase in four months, and in line with expectations, led by prices for goods.
The core PCE index also went up 0.3%, aligning with forecasts.
However, both the headline and core annual inflation rates topped forecasts, reaching 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively.
Meanwhile, both personal income and spending edged up 0.3%.
Head & Shoulders on EUR/USD daily!We're currently observing a significant Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the EUR/USD daily chart, with the price just breaking below the neckline on the right shoulder.
Applying standard Head & Shoulders trading principles, we measure the distance from the head's peak to the neckline and project that same range downward from the breakdown point. Based on this, the estimated target price (TP) for the trade lands around $1.135. The stop-loss will be positioned just above the right shoulder to manage risk effectively.
We'll be watching closely to see how this setup unfolds. 🍻
CHFJPY On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for CHFJPY is below:
The market is trading on 183.63 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 184.54
Recommended Stop Loss - 183.16
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
GOLD: Short Trading Opportunity
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry Level - 3299.9
Sl - 3304.2
Tp - 3291.3
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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CADCHF Will Grow! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for CADCHF.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 0.587.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 0.588 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPJPY: Pullback From Resistance 🇬🇧🇯🇵
I think that GBPJPY will pull back from a wide
intraday supply area.
As a confirmation, I see a bearish imbalance candle that
is formed after its test.
Goal - 198.51
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I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUD/USD – Potential Bounce Buy SetupOANDA:AUDUSD
Timeframe: 30m
Type: Counter-trend / Bounce from Support
Risk Level: Medium to High
Possible Reward: 4+
🔹 Setup:
Price is testing the lower boundary of the recent support zone (0.6432 – 0.6420), aligning with the previous channel structure visible on the 8h chart. The descending move has shown initial signs of exhaustion, suggesting a potential bounce.
📈 Entry:
Current price zone 0.6432 – 0.6445
🎯 Targets (TP):
TP1: 0.64624
TP2: 0.64797
TP4: 0.65158
⛔ Stop Loss (SL):
0.64250 (below recent swing low and liquidity pool)
8H chart Overview:
Previous Position from top of Channel:
#AUDUSD #Forex #SmartMoney #PriceAction #MJTrading #ChartDesigner
Psychology Always Matters:
USD Turns GBP On Its "Head"FX:GBPUSD has formed a Head & Shoulders Pattern!
Price has already broken down below the "Neckline" to Confirm that Pattern.
Currently, Price is working its way back up to retest the Breakout and if the level is strong enough and holds, we could see Price follow through with its reversal to lower prices!
If the retest is successful, the May 12th Lows of 1.31741 - 1.31394 could be a good Support level to set as a Price Target.
Now we wait for a Retest!
AUDCAD; Heikin Ashi Trade IdeaIn this video, I’ll be sharing my analysis of AUDCAD, using FXAN's proprietary algo indicators with my unique Heikin Ashi strategy. I’ll walk you through the reasoning behind my trade setup and highlight key areas where I’m anticipating potential opportunities.
I’m always happy to receive any feedback.
Like, share and comment! ❤️
Thank you for watching my videos! 🙏
BITCOIN SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
BITCOIN SIGNAL
Trade Direction: long
Entry Level: 114,912.19
Target Level: 117,003.95
Stop Loss: 113,517.68
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 2h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EUR/JPY BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the EUR/JPY pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 168.581 level.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GBPJPY – Losing control zone, downtrend taking shapeGBPJPY is still trading within a long-term ascending price channel. However, what’s concerning is that recent price action has broken out of the previously established price box – which had acted as a stabilizing structure for the uptrend. Buyers failed to maintain momentum, repeatedly getting rejected at the top of the box.
Currently, GBPJPY is showing signs of breaking below the short-term support inside the price box, raising the risk of a deeper correction toward the lower boundary of the channel. A “lower high” structure is clearly forming, confirming that selling pressure is taking over.
From a news perspective, the Japanese yen is gaining strength as risk-off sentiment increases, while the pound is losing ground due to cautious tones from the Bank of England following a string of weak economic data. This shift is weakening GBP's appeal and could accelerate the bearish trend.
Strategy:
Wait to SELL if price pulls back to the former resistance zone within the price box and shows rejection signals. The downtrend will be confirmed if the recent low is broken. Stay out if there’s no clear confirmation.
What do you think will happen next with GBPJPY?
GBP_NZD BEARISH BIAS|SHORT|
✅GBP_NZD has retested
A resistance level of 2.2500
And we are seeing a bearish reaction
With the price going down so we are
Bearish biased now and we will be
Expecting the pair to go further down
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
AUDCHF Will Go Down! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for AUDCHF.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.524.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.522 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
AUD/JPY bulls eye 99, 100The yen is broadly weaker, which is even allowing a weaker Australian dollar to rise. And with a decent bullish trend on the daily chart, I am now seeking dips within a recent consolidation range in anticipation of a move to 99 or even 100.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Bearish reversal off overlap resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 100.23
1st Support: 99.29
1st Resistance: 101.09
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USD_JPY RESISTANCE AHEAD|SHORT|
✅USD_JPY is going up now
But a strong resistance level is ahead at 151.232
Thus I am expecting a pullback
And a move down towards the target of 150.368
SHORT🔥
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DXY testing 100.00 resistanceThe US dollar index has risen to rest a key resistance area around the 100.00 level. Previously a key support and resistance zone, what happens here could determine the near-term technical direction for the US dollar.
Key support below this zone is at 98.95, marking a prior resistance. Given the short-term bullish price structure, I would expect this level to hold if the greenback were to ease back from here.
If the bullish momentum gathers pace, then 101.00 could be the next stop, followed by the recent high of 101.97.
From a macro point of view, resilient economic data and persistent core inflation concerns continue to support the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy approach. Today’s core PCE inflation reading came in slightly above forecast, at 2.8% year-over-year versus the expected 2.7%. In addition, jobless claims were better than anticipated, registering 218,000 compared to the 224,000 forecast. The Q2 Employment Cost Index also surprised to the upside, rising 0.9% quarter-on-quarter.
These figures follow yesterday’s stronger-than-expected GDP report and a solid ADP private payrolls release, further underscoring the strength of the U.S. economy.
Attention now turns to Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which could have a meaningful impact on rate expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the importance of the unemployment rate as a key metric, so any upside surprise could reinforce the Fed’s current position.
However, expectations are not very high for the non-farm payrolls report. Current forecasts suggest an increase of 106,000 jobs, with average weekly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month, and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. Yet, the scarcity of strong leading indicators this month adds a layer of uncertainty to the outlook.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com