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Bullish bounce off pullback support?EUR/AUD has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.79142 1st Support: 1.76955 1st Resistance: 1.82291 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends?What Happens to Global Markets When the Ukraine-Russia War Ends? The end of the Ukraine-Russia war will undoubtedly impact major global markets, here’s what we can expect: Oil Market : With tensions easing, oil prices could drop as supply concerns lessen and sanctions ease. However, global demand could still keep prices stable or even high. Gold Market : Gold, a safe-haven asset, might face a decrease in demand as geopolitical uncertainty fades, but if the end of the war leads to global economic instability, gold could remain a strong choice for investors. Forex Market : The end of the conflict could boost the Euro and USD as stability returns to the market. At the same time, the Russian Ruble might face fluctuations as Russia’s economy adjusts to post-war conditions. Crypto Market : Cryptocurrencies may see mixed reactions—some may retreat as confidence in traditional markets rises, but others could flow in if economic uncertainty continues to prevail globally. 🔮 The war's end could bring hope, but it also presents new challenges for markets worldwide. Stay tuned to see how it all plays out!
CFI:WTIShort
by melikatrader94
8
FX Liquidity 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Shock. Long EUR/USD?Liquidity Seizes Up: Dealers Report Conditions 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Turmoil The intricate plumbing of the global foreign exchange market, typically the world's deepest and most liquid financial arena, experienced a severe blockage in recent days, with dealers reporting liquidity conditions even more challenging than during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020. Triggered by the sudden announcement of potential sweeping tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, the ability to execute large trades without significantly moving prices evaporated, creating treacherous conditions for market participants before a temporary pause on the tariff implementation offered a brief respite. Reports indicate that available liquidity for a single transaction, or "clip," in major currency pairs plummeted to lows around $20 million. While this figure might still sound substantial, it represents a dramatic reduction from the norms in the multi-trillion dollar-a-day spot FX market, where clips of $50 million, $100 million, or even more could typically be absorbed with minimal market impact, especially in benchmark pairs like EUR/USD. This liquidity drought occurred paradoxically alongside a spike in overall trading volumes. Both algorithmic trading systems and human traders on principal desks were highly active, reacting to the news flow and heightened volatility. However, this surge in activity masked a fundamental deterioration in market quality. High volume accompanied by low liquidity signifies frantic, often smaller, trades occurring across widening bid-ask spreads, with market makers unwilling or unable to provide firm quotes for substantial sizes. It's the market equivalent of a crowded room where everyone is shouting, but no one is willing to make a firm commitment. Why 'Worse Than Covid'? Unpacking Dealer Sentiment The comparison to the Covid-19 crisis is stark and revealing. The initial wave of the pandemic in March 2020 caused unprecedented volatility across all asset classes as the world grappled with lockdowns and economic shutdowns. FX liquidity certainly suffered then, with spreads widening dramatically. However, dealers suggest the current environment, driven by tariff uncertainty, felt different, and arguably worse, for several reasons: 1. Nature of the Shock: Covid-19, while devastating, was primarily a health crisis with economic consequences. Central banks globally responded with massive, coordinated liquidity injections and policy easing, providing a clear backstop (even if the initial shock was severe). The tariff announcement, however, represents a political and policy shock. Its potential impact is multifaceted – affecting inflation, growth, supply chains, corporate earnings, and international relations – and far harder to model. The policy path forward, including potential retaliation from other countries, is deeply uncertain. 2. Central Bank Reaction Function: During Covid, the playbook for central banks was relatively clear: provide liquidity and ease financial conditions. In response to potential tariffs, the central bank reaction is much less certain. Tariffs could be inflationary (raising import costs), potentially pushing central banks towards tighter policy, while simultaneously being negative for growth, which might argue for easing. This ambiguity makes it harder for markets to price in a predictable policy response, adding another layer of uncertainty that dampens risk appetite and liquidity provision. 3. Fundamental Uncertainty vs. Panic: While Covid induced panic, the underlying driver was identifiable. The tariff threat introduces deep uncertainty about the fundamental rules of global trade. This makes it exceptionally difficult for market makers, who provide liquidity, to price risk accurately. When risk becomes unquantifiable, the natural reaction is to withdraw, reduce quote sizes, and widen spreads significantly to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a large, unhedged position. The Tariff Trigger: A Wrench in the Works Donald Trump's proposal for a "reciprocal" or blanket tariff system, potentially starting at 10% on all imports with higher rates for specific countries, fundamentally challenges the existing global trade framework. The announcement immediately forced market participants to reassess: • Inflation Outlook: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, potentially fueling inflation and impacting interest rate expectations. • Economic Growth: Trade wars can disrupt supply chains, raise business costs, reduce export competitiveness (due to retaliation), and dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on growth. • Currency Valuations: Currencies of countries heavily reliant on exports to the US, or those potentially facing steep retaliatory tariffs, came under pressure. The US dollar itself experienced volatility as markets weighed the inflationary impact against the potential growth slowdown and risk-aversion flows. This complex interplay of factors, combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the implementation and potential scope of such policies, created a perfect storm for volatility. Algorithmic systems, programmed based on historical correlations and data, struggled to navigate a potential regime shift driven by policy pronouncements. Human traders, facing heightened risk and uncertainty, became more cautious. Liquidity providers, facing the risk of being adversely selected (i.e., only trading when the market is about to move sharply against them), drastically reduced their exposure. The Impact: Beyond the Trading Desks The evaporation of liquidity has real-world consequences: • Increased Transaction Costs: Corporates needing to hedge currency exposure for international trade face higher costs (wider spreads). • Execution Risk: Asset managers rebalancing global portfolios find it harder and more expensive to execute large trades, potentially suffering significant slippage (the difference between the expected execution price and the actual price). • Systemic Risk: In highly leveraged markets, poor liquidity can exacerbate sell-offs. Margin calls, as reportedly seen alongside the tariff news, can force leveraged players to liquidate positions rapidly into an illiquid market, potentially triggering a domino effect. The temporary pause in the tariff implementation announced subsequently provided some relief, likely allowing liquidity to recover partially from the extreme lows. However, the underlying uncertainty hasn't disappeared. Until there is greater clarity on the future direction of US trade policy, the FX market is likely to remain susceptible to bouts of nervousness and reduced liquidity. Should You Long EUR/USD Based on This? A Cautious No. While the liquidity situation is dire and reflects significant market stress, using poor FX liquidity itself as a primary reason to take a directional view, such as longing EUR/USD, is generally flawed logic. Here's why: 1. Liquidity is Not Direction: Market liquidity reflects the ease and cost of transacting, not necessarily the fundamental direction of an asset price. Poor liquidity is a symptom of high volatility, uncertainty, and risk aversion. While these factors can influence currency direction (e.g., risk aversion often benefits perceived safe-haven currencies), the liquidity state itself isn't the driver. Both buyers and sellers face the same poor liquidity. 2. Universal Impact: The reported liquidity crunch affected the global spot FX market. While specific pairs might have been hit harder at times, the underlying issue was broad-based risk aversion and dealer pullback, impacting EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and others. It doesn't inherently favor the Euro over the Dollar. 3. Focus on Fundamentals and Sentiment: A decision to long EUR/USD should be based on a broader analysis of: o Relative Monetary Policy: Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the US Federal Reserve (Fed). o Economic Outlook: Growth prospects in the Eurozone versus the United States. o Risk Sentiment: Is the broader market mood risk-on (often favoring EUR) or risk-off (which can sometimes favor USD, though the tariff news complicated this)? o Tariff Impact Analysis: How would the proposed tariffs, if implemented, differentially impact the Eurozone and US economies? Would potential EU retaliation harm the US more, or vice-versa? 4. Increased Trading Risk: Poor liquidity makes any trade riskier and more expensive. Spreads are wider, meaning entry and exit costs are higher. Slippage on stop-loss orders or take-profit orders is more likely. Executing large sizes is challenging. Therefore, even if you have a strong fundamental view to long EUR/USD, the current liquidity environment makes executing and managing that trade significantly more difficult and costly. Conclusion The recent seizure in FX liquidity, reportedly surpassing the severity seen during the Covid crisis onset, underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The threat of sweeping tariffs injected a level of unpredictability that forced liquidity providers to retreat, even amidst high trading volumes. While the temporary pause offers breathing room, the fragility remains. For traders, this environment demands heightened caution, smaller position sizes, and wider stop-losses. Critically, basing directional trades like longing EUR/USD solely on the state of market liquidity is misguided. Such decisions must stem from a thorough analysis of economic fundamentals, policy outlooks, and risk sentiment, while acknowledging that poor liquidity significantly raises the cost and risk of executing any strategy.
by bryandowningqln
Pre-Market Analysis – CAD/CHF1️⃣ The price has broken below the previous support zone, which had held multiple times in the past. This area is now likely to act as a new resistance. 2️⃣ The bottom boundary of the descending channel has been touched, signaling a potential reaction or short-term bounce from this level. 3️⃣ It’s quite probable that the price retraces back to the midline of the channel before continuing its downward move. This would be a classic pullback within a bearish channel structure. 📉 If price fails to reclaim the broken support and reacts bearishly near the resistance-turned zone or the channel’s midline, it could provide a solid continuation setup to the downside.
Short
by melikatrader94
8
Potential bullish nounce?NZD/JPY has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 82.77 1st Support: 81.64 1st Resistance: 84.43 1st Resistance: 1.1089 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
Bullish bounce?NZD/CHF is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 0.47071 1st Support: 0.46347 1st Resistance: 0.47992 1st Resistance: 1.1089 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
1
Bullish bounce off 61.8% Fibonacci retracement?GBP/JPY has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit. Entry: 186.61 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 184.39 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 189.96 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Bearish reversal?GBP/USD is risng towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.3009 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.3106 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.2875 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
XAUUSD signal Technically, the XAU/USD pair's daily chart shows that additional gains are likely, given the strong upward momentum. Technical indicators head north almost vertically, while still far from overbought levels. At the same time, the bright metal extended its advance beyond a now bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,052. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs also aim north, but far below the shorter one. XAUUSD sell signal 3160 Support 3140 Support 3120 Support 3110 Resistance 3190
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Stiven088
USD/CHF drops to lowest since 2015The risk-off trade has just gathered pace. A few moments ago, gold hit a new record above $3175 as the dollar sold off, with the USD/CHF dropping to its weakest point since 2015 and stocks extending their drop on lingering trade war concerns. With risk appetite fading once again, the USD/CHF could be heading down to 0.8000 handle from here, should the breakdown below the key 0.8330-0.8375 zone (now key resistance) holds. Although the latest US inflation data came in weaker, it doesn't seem to be the main driver behind the dollar’s renewed decline — the greenback was already under pressure before the figures were released. The persistent uncertainty surrounding the trade war continues to weigh on sentiment, keeping the USD/CHF outlook tilted to the downside. After yesterday’s BIG relief-driven rally, markets are back well in the red today, with the S&P some 6% lower at the time of writing. While Trump’s 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs sparked short-term optimism, the broader picture hasn't improved much. The 10% blanket tariff is still in effect, and cumulative duties on Chinese imports have climbed to a steep 125%. With Beijing likely to respond, the situation remains tense. Investor caution lingers as the US struggles to secure meaningful trade deals with other key partners, including the EU. Safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen and Swiss franc suggest that market sentiment remains shaky. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Short
by FOREXcom
Gold Rebounds Off Key Support — Next Leg to $4,200 = 124,000 PIP View our previous 120,000 PIPs (target hit) Gold trades at the bottom of this page. Following our previously fulfilled short trade from the top of the ascending channel (TP2 hit at $2,960), gold has now landed precisely at confluence support — aligning with the psychological $3,000 level, ascending channel support, the quarterly dynamic support, and the prior swing high zone. We are now flipping bias long, with a macro continuation in mind, while still respecting the shorter-term range structure. Structure & Setup: Another clean reaction from the ascending channel’s lower boundary reaffirms the structure’s technical validity. Price has now tapped the $3,000 round number support, intersecting with the channel base and our prior short target zone — offering strong risk-defined long opportunities. Macro Context Holds: Our long-term thesis targeting $4,270 remains intact, backed by structural breakout on the quarterly chart and fundamental gold demand. This move is potentially the start of the next impulsive leg in a broader macro expansion, though we expect the asset to oscillate within the channel boundaries until at least July. Entry Logic: This long setup is based on:  – Channel base bounce  – $3,000 psychological round number - $2,960 quarterly dynamic support  – Reversal at former Take Profit 2 (TP2) short target  – Tight invalidation just below $2,960  – Favourable 1:11+ R:R targeting macro highs Invalidation: A clean break and close below $2,960 would invalidate the long thesis and suggest breakdown risk. Until then, structure holds. Pip Potential: From $2,960 to $4,200 = 124,000 pips upside potential — aligning with macro projections and Fib extensions from previous cycles (-1.414 & -1.618 zones). Outlook: While $4,200 remains our long-term target, we anticipate ranging between $2,960–$3,200 for the next several months. This accumulation phase may precede a breakout leg that targets historical Fibonacci confluence zones. Summary: Short trade complete — bias flipped long. We’ve now transitioned from a completed 1:4 R:R short into a 1:11+ macro long off textbook technical levels. Price action is behaving cleanly within the multi-month channel, and this latest support reaction adds further credibility to the bullish continuation thesis. Let price consolidate — buy positions accordingly. The macro expansion to $4,200 is likely underway. Previous Short: 75,000 PIP idea (Target hit): 45,000 PIP idea (Target hit):
IGSB:USCGCLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
EUR/NZD Wave Structure Shift: 4th Wave Correction in ProgressThe 3rd wave in EUR/NZD appears to have been completed, and the market seems to be entering the 4th wave. There is a possibility that the 4th wave could take support near the Fibonacci 0.5 level (1.19164). After that, the 5th wave of the impulse phase may move upward. If the market falls below 1.98303, it would confirm the beginning of the 4th wave. In that scenario, the first target could be around 1.95907 .
by Money_Dictators
6
EUR/USD Clears Resistance, Eyes 1.1200 RetestThe euro jumped +1.66% on the day, decisively clearing the key 1.0940 resistance level with a powerful bullish candle that now opens the door to a retest of the August 2024 high near 1.1200. 🔹 MACD remains in bullish territory, reaffirming upward momentum 🔹 RSI is climbing near 69, approaching overbought but not flashing reversal yet 🔹 Price now trades well above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, both rising Momentum is clearly in the bulls' favor. As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.0940, pullbacks may be seen as buying opportunities ahead of a potential break toward 1.1200. Trend shift confirmed. Bulls back in charge. -MW
by FOREXcom
XAU/USD: Ready for another Fall? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that yesterday the price once again moved exactly as expected, hitting all four targets: $3022, $3016, $3010, and $3000, and even dropped further to $2956, resulting in a total return of over 700 pips! Currently, gold is trading around $3003, and if the price stabilizes below $3014, we can expect further downside. All key demand and supply zones are marked on the chart and are fully tradable. If the drop continues, the next bearish targets will be $2997, $2991, $2984, and $2976, respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
48