Forex
NZDJPY: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current NZDJPY chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
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AUDJPY The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for AUDJPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 96.823
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 96.490
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
News TradingLet’s talk about news trading in Forex . While news trading is extremely lucrative it’s one of the most risky things a trader can do and experience. News and data cause extreme volatility in the market and as we always say “volatility can be your friend or your enemy” . Let’s take a deeper dive into news trading, which news and data affect the TVC:DXY precious metals such as OANDA:XAUUSD and other dollar related currency pairs. We will also cover having the right mindset for trading the news.
1. Understanding News Trading in Forex
News trading is based on the idea that significant economic data releases and geopolitical events can cause sharp price fluctuations in forex markets. We as traders, aim to profit from these sudden price movements by positioning ourselves before or immediately after the news hits the market. However, due to market unpredictability, it requires a strategic plan, risk management, and quick decision making.
2. What to Do in News Trading
1. Know the Key Economic Events – Monitor economic calendars to stay updated on high-impact news releases.
The most influential events include:
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – A report on U.S. job growth that heavily influences the U.S. dollar.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measures inflation, impacting interest rate decisions and currency valuation.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings – Determines U.S. monetary policy and interest rates, affecting global markets.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – A key indicator of economic growth, influencing currency strength.
Central Bank Statements – Speeches by Fed Chair or ECB President can create large market moves.
2. Use an Economic Calendar – Websites like Forex Factory, Investing.com, or DailyFX provide real-time updates on economic events.
3. Understand Market Expectations vs. Reality – Markets often price in expectations before the news is released. If actual data deviates significantly from forecasts, a strong price movement may occur.
4. Trade with a Plan – Whether you are trading pre-news or post-news, have clear entry and exit strategies, stop-loss levels, and a defined risk-to-reward ratio.
5. Monitor Market Sentiment – Pay attention to how traders are reacting. Sentiment can drive price action more than the actual data.
6. Focus on Major Currency Pairs – News trading is most effective with liquid pairs like FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:USDJPY , and OANDA:USDCAD because they have tighter spreads and high volatility.
3. What NOT to Do in News Trading
1. Don’t Trade Without a Stop-Loss – Extreme volatility can cause sudden reversals. A stop-loss helps prevent catastrophic losses.
2. Avoid Overleveraging – Leverage magnifies profits but also increases risk. Many traders blow accounts due to excessive leverage.
3. Don’t Chase the Market – Prices may spike and reverse within seconds. Jumping in late can lead to losses.
4. Avoid Trading Without Understanding News Impact – Not all economic releases cause the same level of volatility. Study past reactions before trading.
5. Don’t Rely Solely on News Trading – Long-term success requires a balanced strategy incorporating technical analysis and risk management.
4. The Unpredictability of News Trading
News trading is highly unpredictable. Even when a report meets expectations, market reactions can be erratic due to:
Market Sentiment Shifts – Traders might focus on different aspects of a report than expected.
Pre-Pricing Effects – If a news event was anticipated, the market might have already moved, causing a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ reaction.
Liquidity Issues – Spreads widen during major news events, increasing trading costs and slippage.
Unexpected Statements or Revisions – Central banks or government agencies can make last-minute statements that shake the market.
5. How News Affects Forex, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar
1. U.S. Dollar (USD) – The USD reacts strongly to NFP, CPI, FOMC statements, and GDP reports. Strong economic data strengthens the dollar, while weak data weakens it.
2. Gold (XAU/USD) – Gold is an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset. It often moves inversely to the USD and rises during economic uncertainty.
3. Stock Market & Risk Sentiment – Positive economic news can boost stocks, while negative reports may trigger risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF.
6. The Right Mindset for News Trading
1. Accept That Volatility is a Double-Edged Sword – Big moves can mean big profits, but also big losses.
2. Control Emotions – Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your strategy.
3. Risk Management is Key – Never risk more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade.
4. Adaptability – Be prepared to change your approach if market conditions shift unexpectedly.
5. Patience and Experience Matter – The best traders wait for the right setups rather than forcing trades.
Thank you for your support!
FxPocket
XAUUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on GOLD?
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, but buying at the current levels carries high risk. We anticipate a price correction down to the identified support level, where we will look for potential buying opportunities.
The best approach is to wait for a correction before entering a buy position.
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GOLD--> Test ATH 2942. Are buyers ready to act ?OANDA:XAUUSD testing ATH levels which could trigger growth momentum. The target of 3000 is getting closer day by day. Imminent in the near future...
Metals are consolidating after the price surge, maintaining an upward trend. Supported by Trump's tax plan and Fed easing expectations.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) and US Dollar Index (DXY) are significantly weaker. Markets are reacting to the delay in tariff implementation and comments from Trump and Powell about the need for interest rate cuts (requiring weeks or months before implementation), which has supported gold. Ahead lies potential profit-taking and impact from US Retail Sales data for January to be released.
Resistance levels: 2942, 2950
Support levels: 2929, 2923, 2908
Emphasis on key support levels. From there, price will realize growth potential. I don't rule out the possibility of retesting 2929-2922 before buyers continue their action.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
Gold → Accelerating Upwards NorthOANDA:XAUUSD returning to the trend following news (inflation). The northbound train may continue from 2907. Upcoming unemployment claims and PPI data.
Gold is supported by uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and economic data from the United States. The Fed remains hawkish due to rising inflation, pushing bond yields higher and driving prices down to $2,865 briefly. However, buyers quickly returned, pushing prices back up.
Meanwhile, traders are awaiting PPI data which could influence Fed policy.
Technically, prices are consolidating in the buying zone compared to key points at 2900 and 2907. If buyers can hold and strengthen above the 2907 resistance level, gold could update ATH in the medium term. Additionally, focus is on 2918 - 2920. Price consolidation above this zone will also support prices.
Best regards,
Bentradegold!
GOLD → Accelerating northward. Targeting $3000Hello dear friends, Ben here!
Today, gold continues its strong upward momentum. Taking inspiration from previous growth - high economic risk. The price is moving increasingly closer to the previously anticipated mark of $3000.
Accordingly, gold broke above the trend channel boundary and the $2850 mark at the start of the week in the US, but growth is being limited by the strengthening dollar due to escalating trade risks. Trump announced on Sunday that he would impose new 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum products, exacerbating the pain for the Euro and commodity-linked Australian Dollar (AUD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD), thereby channeling new buying interest into the safe-haven currency - the US Dollar.
Gold prices also benefited further from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) expanding its gold reserves for the third consecutive month in January and expectations of more stimulus measures from China. However, in the coming days, USD could extend its recovery if risk flows intensify or markets return to profit-taking on USD short positions before US CPI inflation data is released on Wednesday. Moderate expectations from the Fed, hopes for Chinese economic stimulus, and lurking trade war risks will help limit gold's downside.
Technically, we are currently monitoring around the psychological area of 2904 and the main support level is 2882.
Resistance level: 2904 (unconfirmed)
Support levels: 2882, 2870, 2853
Bulls seem to remain hesitant around the 2904 area with prices potentially continuing their upward trend without any reversals. But! The most likely scenario at this point is a false break of 2904, with a short-term correction to retest liquidity before bulls head northward.
GOLD → Heading into tonight: Is 3K still a valid target ?OANDA:XAUUSD has approached the 2950 level but has yet to reach the key psychological threshold. The current price action indicates a correction phase, allowing the market to rest and accumulate liquidity ahead of key news releases, with a potential move northward on the horizon.
Gold is currently testing the 2900 level following Trump’s new tariff announcement, maintaining strong demand. The primary focus remains on Powell’s speech and the U.S. inflation data, as these will be the key factors influencing expectations for a Fed rate cut, which is the main driving force behind gold’s movement... Theoretically, the situation remains unclear as gold approaches strong support levels.
From a technical perspective, a correction is a logical scenario in a strong market. Technically speaking, prices cannot rise indefinitely; they require energy, which is replenished through seller pressure.
Currently, key focus areas include 2912, Fibonacci 0.618, and Fibonacci 0.5 levels.
Resistance levels: 2912, 2930
Support levels: 2901 (Fibonacci 0.618), 2888 (Fibonacci 0.5)
Powell’s speech, scheduled for tonight, and tomorrow’s U.S. inflation data will be the main catalysts. High volatility is inevitable. However, overall economic conditions continue to support this precious metal.
Before moving higher, gold may first test 2901 and 2888. The target remains within the familiar range of 2950 to 3000.
Best regards, Bentradegold!
Forex: Why and How to Use TradingView
Dear readers, I am Trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about the reason why I use TradingView.
The Forex (Foreign Exchange) market is one of the largest and most dynamic in the world, with over 6 trillion dollars traded every day.
TradingView is one of the most popular platforms for technical analysis and chart viewing, particularly appreciated by Forex traders. In this guide, we will explore how to use TradingView to trade Forex, taking advantage of the tools and features offered by the platform.
What is TradingView?
TradingView is a technical analysis platform that offers advanced charts, drawing tools, customizable indicators, and an active community of traders. Among its main features:
Real-time charts on any timeframe, from 1 minute to daily or weekly.
Technical indicators such as RSI, MACD, moving averages, and much more.
Social trading to share ideas with other traders and learn from their analysis.
Drawing tools to plot trends, channels, and Fibonacci.
With its user-friendly interface, TradingView is ideal for beginner traders and those looking for advanced analysis.
How to Trade Forex with TradingView
1. Choose a Currency Pair
The first step to start trading Forex is to choose a currency pair to analyze, such as EUR/USD or GBP/JPY. Each pair represents the value relationship between two currencies. For example, in the case of EUR/USD, the base currency is the Euro and the counter currency is the US Dollar.
2. Use Charts
TradingView offers several views:
Candlestick Chart: Shows price movements in specific time frames. It is the most used chart in Forex.
Line Chart: Shows only closing prices, useful for observing general trends.
Bar Chart: Shows the open, close, high and low for each period.
These visualizations help you better understand the market trend.
3. Set Indicators
Indicators are essential tools in technical trading. On TradingView, you can use:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Shows whether a currency pair is overbought or oversold (levels above 70 indicate overbought, below 30 oversold).
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Provides trend reversal signals and can be used to confirm the market direction.
Moving Averages (MA): Helps identify the market direction and filter trading signals.
4. Customize Drawing Tools
TradingView offers powerful drawing tools such as:
Trend Lines: To plot support and resistance levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: To identify key price reversal levels.
Channels: To analyze price movements within a defined range.
These tools allow you to precisely track market entry and exit points.
5. Create Alerts
TradingView allows you to set custom alerts. You can receive notifications via email or directly on the platform when the price reaches certain levels. This is particularly useful for not missing important trading opportunities.
Forex Trading Strategies
1. Trend Trading
One of the most common strategies is trend following. When the market is in an uptrend (bullish trend), buy; when it is in a downtrend (bearish trend), sell. Use moving averages or the MACD indicator to identify the direction of the trend.
2. Retracement Trading
Retracements are corrective movements within a trend. You can use Fibonacci Retracement to identify support and resistance levels, and wait for the price to retrace before entering the market in the direction of the main trend.
3. Scalping
Scalping is a short-term strategy that aims to make small profits from rapid price movements. Use short timeframes (for example 1 minute or 5 minutes) and take advantage of spikes in volatility.
4. Breakout Trading
Breakout trading is based on breaking key support or resistance levels. When the price breaks these levels, a strong move in one direction is expected. Indicators such as ATR (Average True Range) help you monitor volatility and choose the right times to enter the market.
Forex Trading Tips
Risk Management: Forex is a highly leveraged market, so protecting your capital is key. Use stop losses and take profits to limit losses and protect gains.
Conclusions
TradingView is an excellent tool for Forex trading, thanks to its wide range of advanced features, ease of use and the ability to analyze charts accurately.
EUR_USD STRONG BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅EUR_USD made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.0440 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we will be expecting
A further bullish continuation with
The target of retesting the
Horizontal resistance above at 1.0533
LONG🚀
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USDCAD (4H) - Bearish Break of Consolidation ZoneOANDA:USDCAD
📶Technical Analysis:
Weekly Chart:
🟠 Price is in a long-term bullish trend, confirmed by a trendline formed since 2021 and 3 MAs aligned bullish.
🟡 Price tested major resistance at 1.4600-1.4700, which was previously tested in 2016 and 2020.
🟢 Strong pullback after testing resistance, indicating a potential bearish reversal pattern.
Daily Chart:
🟢 Strong bearish candle on the daily chart confirms that the weekly resistance holds.
🟡 Price volatility influenced by Trump's tariff decision.
🟢 The bearish momentum on the daily chart confirms the trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
🔴 The next strong support is around 1.3900, where the price has failed to break five times.
4H Chart:
🟡 Price has been consolidating since Dec 2024 between 1.4450 (resistance) and 1.4300 (support).
🟡 Price initially broke above the range due to tariff news but quickly returned to the consolidation zone.
🟢 Strong bearish candle broke through the lower support at 1.43, signaling potential bearish continuation.
🟢 The break of support suggests a bearish outlook, with the next targets near 1.3900.
🟢 The Moving Averages (MAs) are crossing, indicating a potential shift to a bearish trend.
🔤 Summary:
🟡 Waiting for a retest of the broken 1.43 support level to confirm the bearish trend continuation.
🟡 Expecting a correction in the bearish trend with the formation of additional signal candles that confirm the bearish momentum after the retracement.
🟡 Watch for the formation of bearish candles after the correction, either near the broken support level or EMA levels for confirmation before entering the bearish trade.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to the area of 6136.8 (Wave 3).Colleagues, I believe that wave “2” has completed its development and now I expect the upward movement to continue in wave ‘3’, which should break the maximum of wave “1”.
So far, I set the target as a minimum in the area of 6136.8.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Silver at $32.90, Asian Demand Fuels RiseSilver jumped to $32.90 on Friday morning, fueled by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Additionally, strong demand from China and other Asian markets has further supported silver prices.
From a technical perspective, $33.15 is the first resistance level, with further targets at $33.80 and $34.50 if the price breaks higher. On the downside, $31.40 serves as the first support level, followed by $30.90 and $30.20 if selling pressure intensifies.
Gold Steady, Set for Seventh Weekly GainGold traded at $2,930 per ounce, maintaining its position for a seventh weekly gain. On Thursday, President Trump instructed federal agencies to explore ways to align U.S. tariffs with those of other countries, though without immediate implementation. While the delay eased some concerns, fears of escalating global trade tensions persisted, driving investors toward gold.
Meanwhile, U.S. producer inflation exceeded expectations, following strong consumer inflation data earlier in the week. This reinforced the view that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates soon. Despite this, gold remained resilient, supported by trade war uncertainties and a weaker dollar, which made the metal more affordable for foreign buyers.
The first resistance is at $2,949, with further levels at $2,975 and $3,000 if the price moves higher. On the downside, $2,885 is the first support level, followed by $2,830 and $2,760 if selling pressure increases.
GBP/USD Up on Positive Growth DataThe British pound climbed to $1.2560 after preliminary data showed the UK economy grew by 0.1% in the final quarter of 2024, defying expectations of a 0.1% contraction and outperforming the Bank of England’s forecasts. This puts the economy slightly ahead of where it was when Labour took office in July, offering some relief to the government.
However, challenges remain as the Office for Budget Responsibility is set to release an updated economic and fiscal outlook on March 26, with reports indicating a lowered growth forecast. Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25bps to 4.5% last week, its third reduction since beginning its easing cycle in August 2024, while also downgrading its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.7%.
1.2600 is the first resistance level, with further targets at 1.2650 and 1.2700 if the pair moves higher. On the downside, 1.2340 serves as the first support level, followed by 1.2265 and 1.2100 if selling pressure intensifies.
Dollar Weakens as Trade Tensions EaseEUR/USD is hovering around 1.0460 on Friday morning, while the dollar index remains near 107, poised for a 1% weekly decline. The drop is driven by easing trade tensions and expectations of a softer personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index later this month. The dollar weakened 0.8% on Thursday after President Trump directed his administration to explore reciprocal tariffs on countries with unfair trade practices. However, since these tariffs are not expected immediately, concerns over retaliation and inflation eased, reducing uncertainty around the Fed's ability to lower borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, producer inflation data exceeded expectations, following strong consumer inflation figures from the previous day. Despite this, components of the report suggest that core PCE inflation, the Fed's key focus, may come in lower than anticipated.
Technically, 1.0460 is the first resistance level, with further barriers at 1.0515 and 1.0600 if the pair moves higher. On the downside, initial support is at 1.0350, followed by 1.0275 and 1.0220.
Yen Rallies as Trump Delays TariffsThe Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar on Friday, following a 1% gain in the previous session. The yen strengthened as the dollar retreated sharply after President Trump delayed reciprocal tariffs, easing concerns over escalating trade tensions. The latest US PPI report also hinted that core PCE inflation, the Fed’s key metric due later this month, could come in lower than expected.
Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa stated that Japan would respond appropriately to any US reciprocal tariffs, while the Bank of Japan’s hawkish stance continued to support the yen. Although uncertainty remains about a potential rate hike in March, the central bank is widely expected to introduce further increases later this year.
Technically, 154.90 is the key resistance level, with further targets at 156.00 and 157.00. On the downside, 151.90 is the first major support, followed by 151.25 and 149.20 if the pair moves lower.
USDCAD - BEARISH SCENARIOHello Traders !
The USDCAD failed to break the resistance level (1.45957 - 1.46900).
Currently, The price is trading in the support level (1.43100 - 1.42610).
So, Let's expect the bearish scenario :
if the market breaks the support level and closes below that,
We will see a huge bearish move📉
__________
TARGET: 1.41100🎯
SPX500 Is Bearish! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 6,125.45.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 6,020.86 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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GOLD Is Very Bullish! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2,933.30.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2,963.64.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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EURUSD Is Going Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.046.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.054 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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AUDCHF Will Fall! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for AUDCHF.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.571.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 0.568 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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