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Is it Time for Commodity Currencies to Shine?As Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which was bullish the USD, the CAD closed the day green as Commercial traders are net-long while Speculators are increasing their short position. Will fading this crowded trade (not max crowded yet) end up being one of the better trades during the first quarter of 2025? This is also not the only currency set up that way. Other commodity currencies include the AUD and NZD. These three currencies are where Speculators are most short. Now we wait for the market to confirm the long trade with a news failure. For new followers, the CMR process is to wait for Speculators (both small and large) to become extremely crowded and then fade their trade after a news failure in the market confirms the trade. You want to be on the same side as Commercials when the market turns. Thanks, Jason
CME:6C1!Long
by Crowded_Market_Report
15
GBPJPY Update: The Bulls Are in Full Control – What’s Next?What’s great, everyone! We’re back with another GBPJPY update, and it’s January 24, 2025. The market has been playing out exactly as we anticipated, and we’ve been capitalizing on every move with precision. If you’ve been following our breakdowns, you’ll remember that on January 17, we entered a long position at the 192.97 level. Some asked if this level would break, and I confidently said yes. Why? Because every retest of the 192.43 structure level held firm, showing strong buying interest. Once we got a confirmed break and close above 193.34 with volume, we knew the next leg higher was coming. Today, we took another long position after an H4 candle closure, targeting the highs at 194.69, which are well within reach. Beyond that, we’re eyeing the 198.10 and 198.85 levels as the market continues to respect the current range. As I always say, the market ranges 75-80% of the time, and knowing how to trade within these areas is key to consistent profits. Looking at the weekly chart, we see a powerful bullish candle forming with strong volume. If it closes this way, I’ll continue looking for buy opportunities up to the range highs. However, if we see weakness or a wick forming at the top, we’ll reassess. Key levels to watch: • Support: 192.43 (previous structure hold) • Targets: 194.69 (hit), 198.10, and 198.85 • Potential pullback areas: 194.00 for a re-entry opportunity As always, the market seeks liquidity, and our entries have been positioned strategically to capture these levels. If you haven’t seen the previous breakdowns, check them out to understand the full picture of this trade. If you’re enjoying these updates and want more in-depth breakdowns, make sure to boost the post, follow, and share with your fellow traders. Stay tuned for the next update as we continue to dominate GBPJPY! See you in the next one – peace!
Long
by BlueOceanFxAcademy
USD/MXN: Is the Uptrend Breaking?Chart Analysis: USD/MXN has broken below a key ascending trendline (blue), suggesting potential weakening in the bullish momentum observed since mid-2024. 1️⃣ Key Support Breakdown: The pair closed below the ascending trendline at 20.25, signaling potential bearish pressure. The next key support lies near 20.00, a psychological level and a significant horizontal zone. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): At 20.38, acting as dynamic resistance following the breakdown. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned lower at 19.05, confirming a longer-term bullish structure remains intact despite recent weakness. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 43.19, showing bearish momentum but not yet oversold. MACD: Hovering near the zero line with a slight bearish crossover, indicating waning upward momentum. What to Watch: A sustained move below 20.00 could confirm a deeper bearish correction toward the 200-day SMA. A recovery back above the trendline and 20.38 could invalidate the bearish breakout and signal a continuation of the bullish trend. USD/MXN's near-term direction hinges on its ability to either hold above 20.00 or reclaim the broken trendline for renewed bullish momentum. -MW
by FOREXcom
GBP/USD Recovery Tests Potential Resistance LevelChart Analysis: GBP/USD has rebounded strongly, approaching the critical resistance at 1.2500, a level that has served as support-turned-resistance in prior sessions. 1️⃣ Key Resistance Level: The horizontal level at 1.2500 is a key inflection point, with a breakout above it potentially signaling further upside momentum. Rejection at this level may see the pair revert lower toward support near 1.2400. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 1.2523, aligning with the resistance zone, increasing its significance. 200-day SMA (red): Trending downward at 1.2790, reflecting the longer-term bearish bias. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: Recovering to 54.67, showing improving bullish momentum but still below overbought territory. MACD: Shows a bullish crossover, suggesting upward momentum may continue in the near term. What to Watch: A daily close above 1.2500 would reinforce bullish sentiment and open the path toward higher resistance levels. A rejection at 1.2500 could lead to renewed selling pressure and a potential test of recent lows. Monitor momentum indicators for confirmation of either a breakout or a reversal. GBP/USD is at a critical juncture, with 1.2500 acting as the line in the sand for the next directional move. -MW
by FOREXcom
#NAS100USD 4HNAS100USD (4H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price has formed a sell engulfing candlestick pattern in a key resistance area, indicating increased selling pressure. This bearish reversal pattern suggests that sellers are gaining control, and the price may start moving lower from this area. Forecast: A sell opportunity is expected as the sell engulfing pattern signals a potential bearish reversal. The price is likely to target nearby support levels if the selling momentum continues. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: Near the sell engulfing area after confirmation of continued bearish pressure. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed above the high of the sell engulfing candlestick to manage risk. - Take Profit: Target significant support levels below for potential downside movement. Market Sentiment: The sell engulfing candlestick pattern reflects bearish sentiment, suggesting a potential reversal from the current resistance area. Proper confirmation is recommended before entering the trade to align with market momentum.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by PIPSFIGHTER
USDCAD Will Explode! BUY! My dear subscribers, This is my opinion on the USDCAD next move: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.4323 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.4380 My Stop Loss - 1.4297 About Used Indicators: On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
EURUSD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0473 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.0393 Safe Stop Loss - 1.0518 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
EURGBP - Weak Again!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 EURGBP has been bearish trading within the falling wedge pattern in blue. Currently, EURGBP is approaching the upper bound of the wedge. Moreover, the orange zone is a strong structure. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the orange structure and upper blue trendline. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EURGBP is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Short
by TheSignalyst
2
GBPAUD A Fall Expected! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for GBPAUD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.9685 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.9658 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
1
Trump Threatens Europe with Tariffs: What About the Markets? Hi, I’m Andrea Russo, a professional trader, and today I want to discuss this week's hot topic. Donald Trump has recently revived his old economic slogan, promising heavy tariffs for companies that do not produce within the United States. In a public statement, the former president reiterated that foreign producers would face tariffs if they do not establish manufacturing plants in the USA. A direct attack on the European Union and its Green Deal policies, which he called a "scam". But what impact will this threat have on global markets? In this article, we’ll explore the potential consequences for stock markets, currencies, and vulnerable economic sectors, as well as the ripple effects on global monetary policies. 1. The Context of Trump's Threat Trump’s threat of imposing significant tariffs on foreign companies is nothing new. During his presidency, he initiated a series of trade wars, particularly against China, threatening tariffs on imported goods to stimulate domestic production and reduce the trade deficit. Now, Trump is reprising this approach, focusing this time on the European Union and targeting environmental policies and the Green Deal, which he has long promoted as a "scam" and harmful to American businesses. His proposal to cut taxes to 15% for companies investing in the USA, combined with the threat of tariffs on imported goods, could strengthen his electoral base but has the potential to stir tensions between the world’s largest economies. 2. Impact on Financial Markets Trump's announcement has already triggered reactions in financial markets. While the risk of a global trade war may seem reduced compared to the peaks of 2018-2019, the threat of new tariffs has the potential to create turbulence, especially in sectors that are particularly exposed to changes in tariff policies. Export and import sectors: Companies heavily reliant on imports/exports may be the most vulnerable to these threats. European and Asian producers exporting to the USA could face reduced profit margins if they are hit with new tariffs. In particular, the automotive, technology, and electronics sectors could see demand contraction from American consumers who may have to pay higher prices for imported products. German, Japanese, and Chinese automotive companies could be particularly affected, as they represent a major share of imports into the USA. Currencies: An immediate reaction to these developments could reflect in the currency markets. The USD could strengthen, as protectionist policies are often seen as an incentive for domestic production, making it more attractive to invest in the United States. However, an escalation in the trade war could lead to higher volatility and weaken sentiment toward emerging market currencies, which are more vulnerable to U.S. protectionist measures. 3. Companies and Sectors Sensitive to Tariff Threats Technology sector: Tech companies with strong presences in Asia, such as Apple, Samsung, and Huawei, may face pressure on their profit margins if they are subject to tariffs on exports to the USA. Trump’s policies could push companies to reconsider their global supply chains and set up local production in the USA to avoid additional tariffs. Automotive sector: Another sector highly vulnerable to tariffs is the automotive industry. Foreign automakers may find themselves paying tariffs on imported vehicles, reducing the competitiveness of their products compared to U.S. manufacturers like Ford and General Motors. This scenario could lead investors to reassess their positions on automotive stocks and trade based on expectations of declining demand. Energy sector & Green Deal: Trump’s strong criticism of the European Green Deal could boost the position of American energy companies, particularly those operating in natural gas and oil. The United States may further loosen environmental regulations to stimulate domestic production, benefiting American energy companies over European ones. However, a tariff threat on imported green technologies could hinder investments in renewable energy innovation. 4. Political and Geopolitical Reactions A likely response to this tariff threat could be immediate retaliation from the European Union and other nations. Countermeasures could include imposing reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods, as occurred during Trump’s previous term. The escalation of such measures could trigger a new cycle of protectionism, amplifying global economic uncertainty. The European Union, in particular, could adopt policies aimed at reducing its dependence on the United States, strengthening trade alliances with Asia and other emerging economies, which could significantly impact international trade and currency valuations. 5. Implications for Investors: Strategies and Risks With growing uncertainty over global trade policies, investors should closely monitor the evolution of this situation. Some potential strategies include: Currency hedging: Investors may choose to hedge their positions in currency markets using instruments like forex futures or currency options to mitigate the risk of unexpected dollar fluctuations. Defensive sectors: Investing in more defensive sectors, such as consumer goods and utilities, which tend to be less sensitive to geopolitical developments, could be a safer strategy in times of uncertainty. Low correlation stocks: Looking at alternative assets or investing in low-correlation stocks (e.g., small-cap stocks or emerging market stocks) could be an interesting strategy to diversify and reduce risk during periods of volatility. Conclusion Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on imported goods signals a return to more protectionist trade policies. While the market’s initial reaction may be volatile, the long-term effect will depend on how the geopolitical situation evolves and the countermeasures taken by U.S. trading partners. Investors should prepare for a new phase of uncertainty, closely monitoring central bank actions, fiscal policies, and corporate strategies to navigate this new economic reality effectively.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Gold Hits $2,770 Target – Will It Break Historical Highs Today?Analyzing the 4-hour chart of gold, we observe that the price reacted to the expected levels of $2,755, $2,757, and $2,759 yesterday, followed by a strong breakout to hit our anticipated target of $2,770. Currently trading at $2,777, gold shows no signs of rejection or a significant pullback. As the final trading day of the week unfolds, the big question remains: will gold surpass its previous historical high of $2,790? With today's growth reaching $2,780, it's just 100 pips away from breaking that record. The opening of New York markets could provide the decisive momentum. A new historical high and even targets beyond $2,800 seem within reach! Stay tuned for updates, and don't forget to support this analysis with your reactions to keep the momentum going. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
12
Potential Reversal or Breakout on GBP/JPY 4HThe market recently broke structure (BoS) to the upside, indicating a shift in momentum. Price is currently approaching a key bearish fair value gap (FVG) and a bearish order block, both of which are potential resistance levels. The EMA 200 is positioned above the price, further reinforcing bearish bias unless price decisively breaks above the FVG and order block. Sell-Side Indication: The presence of a Bearish Order Block and Bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) indicates potential selling pressure. If price reacts strongly to these resistance zones, it could trigger a sell-off. This aligns with a bearish outlook if rejection occurs. Buy-Side Indication: If price breaks above the Bearish Order Block and sustains above the EMA 200, it could signal a continuation of bullish momentum, favoring buyers.
by XAUGoldMaster
GBPNZD Technical buy opportunity below the 1D MA50.Last time we looked into the GBPNZD pair (October 02 2024, see chart below), we issued a clear buy signal at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up, that easily hit the 2.1900 Target: Yet again, the price got rejected at the top of the Channel Up and pulled-back where it is consolidating below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). In the 12 months of this pattern, this has always been an excellent technical buy opportunity, with the minimum immediate rally being +4.15%. As a result, we feel confident buying this pair and target 2.2550. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
USD/CAD: Will the CAD Recover After Trump's Tariff Plans?A bombshell announcement from US President Donald Trump sparked chaos in the foreign exchange markets, as he hinted at imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico as early as February. The news sent the Canadian Dollar plummeting to multi-year lows against its US peer, while the US Dollar staged a modest recovery from its overnight slump. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found itself under intense selling pressure as investors scrambled to reassess the country's economic prospects in light of Trump's protectionist policies. The currency's decline raised fresh concerns about the country's trade relationships and the potential impact on economic growth. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) rallied, shrugging off its overnight dip to a two-week low. Market analysts expect Trump's policies to fuel inflation and force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its hawkish stance, which could boost the value of the US currency. From a technical perspective, the CAD's price chart is currently trading near a critical supply area around 1.4425. Our analysis suggests that the price has reached a turning point after rejecting the key resistance level of 1.4500. We are looking for a bearish reversal, which could set the stage for further declines in the Canadian Dollar. The implications of Trump's tariff threat are far-reaching and have significant implications for Canada's economy. As the situation continues to unfold, investors will be watching the markets closely for any signs of a bearish reversal in the Canadian Dollar. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USD/CAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
10