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Forex_signals

Market Cycles ExampleEarlier this morning I was working with a student covering the 3 main types of market cycles in FOREX and I figured I would share it. Using USD/JPY 4hr as an example, you can see three differently colored zones. Green/Red reference bullish and bearish price action. The blue zones represent consolidation. Price action is defined as, "basic movements of the price, to generate signals of entry and exit in trades and that stands out for its reliability and for not requiring the use of indicators". Price action is simply how prices change - the action of price. It mostly relates to the pure psychological intention of the majority of traders (Bulls vs. Bears). Consolidation zones (blue) occur simply because buyers and sellers within the market are in agreement. You will see much less volatility and liquidity during times of consolidation. We use this to our advantage with the strategy we have developed, by looking for secondary retests at the bottom or top of areas where consolidation has previously occurred to predict price action before it happens. I suggest that you pull up a 4hr chart and begin to back test by drawing the three types of zones to get more aquatinted with being able to spot these out. This will help you always maintain awareness of which current state the pair you are trading or analyzing is in. 03:05:59 (UTC) Sat Jan 4, 2020
by TayFx
15
Example of an Ascending Broadening WedgeThe ascending broadening wedge is considered to be a reversal pattern, and is bearish in nature. Though the pattern is typically a signal of reversal, continuation of the uptrend is still possible. When present as a continuation pattern, the wedge will still slope to the upside, but the up-slope will typically be found as a pullback within a downtrend. When present as a reversal, the pattern will slope to the upside within an uptrend. Regardless of continuation or reversal, ascending broadening wedges are always bearish in nature. All information and material is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. 01:22:09 (UTC) Sat Jan 4, 2020
by TayFx
7
LONG Platinum: TA for VIP memberHere's requested TA for one of our V.I.P members. We're don't trade this CFD so this is purley technicals on the fly. Plat is one where you have a falling wedge that could develop and a break above the upper trendline that could be of interest. For now its choppy and the risk is in the immediate future since we're still declining in the longtime time frame and that will continue to fall to the downsie (ownside break). Trade at your own risk! In the example below, you can observe that on the lower boundary of the wedg,the peaks become slightly higher each time it comes down to the line. This has the effect of ensuring that none of the trades that are taken short in these regions can turn a profit. Similarly, on the upper boundary of the wedge , the same thing is happening with each of the peaks becoming progressively lower and trapping the higher level longs and pulling them down. There is no way of predicting which direction the price will ultimately breakout.This will be determined by the net volumes that occur. In other words, if there is a greater build-up of short positions over the long positions, then the wedge will break up. 01:14:44 (UTC) Sat Jan 4, 2020
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TayFx
5
10's & 03's to invert again in 2020?FRED:FEDFUNDS 01:37:23 (UTC) Fri Jan 3, 2020 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ This is not financial advice. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Seek a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. I am not responsible for losses or gains that may or may not occur in the marketplace. Forex carries a high level of risk not suitable for all investors.
TVC:US10YShort
by TayFx
1
VIX: Record Net Short OptionsAlthough we primarily trade FX contracts, staying on top of the equity markets around the world can have huge advantages when trying to identify opportunities preparatory to them even showing validity. The CBOE Volatility Index , known by its ticker symbol VIX , is a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility implied by S&P 500 index options. Put simply, this chart represents volatility in the most widely used benchmark in equity markets (SPX) . As you can see, over longer term time frames price has compressed. This can be proven by looking at the average true range indicator (ATR) and historical range percentage indicator (HRP) on the daily timeframe . You will see levels very low; significant because the last time these two indicators were this low on the daily chart the VIX was prior to big spikes in volatility . These are incredibly complacent and quiet markets. There's nothing wrong with equity markets hitting new highs, however the more risk-appetite that traders have in their books and the further it deviates from what we would construe as a well founded risk position. Traders are carrying assets this high up in the market know that their exposure at these prices is risky. This is more of a risk when you consider the representation of volatility seen in the chart above. Looking at futures for the VIX , there is a net short position on the derivatives currently not expired. What's significant though is that the amount of contracts net short is 218,000 a new record. This shows the willingness of the market to take on risk through leverage. Keep in mind, the amount of free cash for Wall Street is at record lows, as the complacency of it itself can be seen just by considering this fact. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ No part of this book may be reproduced or used in any manner without written permission of the copyright owners except for the use of quotations in a book review. All information and material is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. 01:29:02 (UTC) Fri Jan 3, 2020
TVC:VIX
by TayFx
3
Take advantage of institutionalization Commercial & Investment Banks The greatest volume of currency is traded in the interbank market. This is where banks of all sizes trade currency with each other and through electronic networks. Big banks account for a large percentage of total currency volume trades. Banks facilitate forex transactions for clients and conduct speculative trades from their own trading desks. When banks act as dealers for clients, the bid-ask spread represents the bank's profits. Speculative currency trades are executed to profit on currency fluctuations. Currencies can also provide diversification to a portfolio mix. Central Banks Central banks, which represent their nation's government, are extremely important players in the forex market. Open market operations and interest rate policies of central banks influence currency rates to a very large extent. A central bank is responsible for fixing the price of its native currency on forex. This is the exchange rate regime by which its currency will trade in the open market. Exchange rate regimes are divided into floating, fixed and pegged types. Any action taken by a central bank in the forex market is done to stabilize or increase the competitiveness of that nation's economy. Central banks (as well as speculators) may engage in currency interventions to make their currencies appreciate or depreciate. For example, a central bank may weaken its own currency by creating additional supply during periods of long deflationary trends, which is then used to purchase foreign currency. This effectively weakens the domestic currency, making exports more competitive in the global market. Central banks use these strategies to calm inflation. Their doing so also serves as a long-term indicator for forex traders. Investment Managers and Hedge Funds Portfolio managers, pooled funds and hedge funds make up the second-biggest collection of players in the forex market next to banks and central banks. Investment managers trade currencies for large accounts such as pension funds, foundations, and endowments. An investment manager with an international portfolio will have to purchase and sell currencies to trade foreign securities. Investment managers may also make speculative forex trades, while some hedge funds execute speculative currency trades as part of their investment strategies. Multinational Corporations Firms engaged in importing and exporting conduct forex transactions to pay for goods and services. Consider the example of a German solar panel producer that imports American components and sells its finished products in China. After the final sale is made, the Chinese yuan the producer received must be converted back to euros. The German firm must then exchange euros for dollars to purchase more American components. Companies trade forex to hedge the risk associated with foreign currency translations. The same German firm might purchase American dollars in the spot market, or enter into a currency swap agreement to obtain dollars in advance of purchasing components from the American company in order to reduce foreign currency exposure risk. Additionally, hedging against currency risk can add a level of safety to offshore investments. Individual Investors The volume of forex trades made by retail investors is extremely low compared to financial institutions and companies. However, it is growing rapidly in popularity. Retail investors base currency trades on a combination of fundamentals (i.e., interest rate parity, inflation rates, and monetary policy expectations) and technical factors (i.e., support, resistance, technical indicators, price patterns). How Forex Trading Shapes Business The resulting collaboration of the different types of forex traders is a highly liquid, global market that impacts business around the world. Exchange rate movements are a factor in inflation, global corporate earnings and the balance of payments account for each country. For instance, the popular currency carry trade strategy highlights how market participants influence exchange rates that, in turn, have spillover effects on the global economy. The carry trade, executed by banks, hedge funds, investment managers and individual investors, is designed to capture differences in yields across currencies by borrowing low-yielding currencies and selling them to purchase high-yielding currencies. For example, if the Japanese yen has a low yield, market participants would sell it and purchase a higher yield currency. When interest rates in higher yielding countries begin to fall back toward lower yielding countries, the carry trade unwinds and investors sell their higher yielding investments. An unwinding of the yen carry trade may cause large Japanese financial institutions and investors with sizable foreign holdings to move money back into Japan as the spread between foreign yields and domestic yields narrows. This strategy, in turn, may result in a broad decrease in global equity prices. The Bottom Line There is a reason why forex is the largest market in the world: It empowers everyone from central banks to retail investors to potentially see profits from currency fluctuations related to the global economy. There are various strategies that can be used to trade and hedge currencies, such as the carry trade, which highlights how forex players impact the global economy. Segal, Troy. “Forex Folk: Who Trades Currency and Why.” Investopedia, Investopedia, 18 Nov. 2019, www.investopedia.com
by TayFx
2
The Basics of a Candle Stick (for Beginners)Candlesticks represent where price action opens and closes in a given time period.For example, when looking at a 1HR timeframe, each candle will represent 1HR of price action and also show where the opening and closing price of that hour was. Green candles show buy pressure Red candles show sell pressure. The larger the candle, the more variance in price action. Wicks are the thinner lines above and below candles that show where highs and lows of price action has reached during the timeframe of a candle. Wicks on the upside represent the highest price it was traded for during that time. Wicks on the downside represent the lowest price it was traded for during that time. Keep in mind that these wicks can be on both the upside and downside of a candle at the same time. Remember, the top wick is the highest the price was traded at, the bottom wick is the lowest that it was traded at. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ No part of this book may be reproduced or used in any manner without written permission of the copyright owners except for the use of quotations in a book review. Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, trade discussions, or other information contained on this website are educational in nature and merely provided as a presentation of trading strategies. Commentaries made on this website reflect our own opinions and trading techniques and do not constitute investment advice. All information and material is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. I'm not a registered investment advisor. 00:58:48 ( UTC ) Thu Jan 2, 2020
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TayFx
2
The Famous Double Bottom (+130 pips)A double bottom is simply the opposite of a double top . This pattern normally occurs during a downtrend and is a signal of a reversal of the downtrend toward an uptrend. It’s easily recognizable by its resemblance to the letter “W”. The initial downward move will find a support at the first bottom and then the price action will rally off the support to a temporary new high (the middle of the “W”). Another selloff will often take place that will reach the same support level of the first bottom, consequently sparking another upward rally. The trend is confirmed when the price breaks through the upper resistance to complete the pattern and reversal as displayed below. These are the most basic pattern structures of double tops and bottoms that you’re likely to come across. ( cont in our course) Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, trade discussions, or other information contained on this website are educational in nature and merely provided as a presentation of trading strategies. Commentaries made on this website reflect our own opinions and trading techniques and do not constitute investment advice. All information and material is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. I'm not a registered investment advisor.
TVC:DXYLong
by TayFx
3
The Power of the 1.27 Fibonacci ExtensionA solid currency trading strategy consists of entering a trade at the right place, having a stop that is properly calculated, and setting a reasonable profit target level that works time after time after time. Many newer traders set too ambitious profit targets expecting the trade to be "the big one" and hoping it will help offset the losses they have accumulated. However, a far more effective currency trading strategy is to set a reasonable profit target each time, not expecting the home run, and being satisfied with smaller profits which on a consistent basis will build the equity in the account surprisingly quickly once the compounding action kicks in. Here is where the Fibonacci tool comes in. This article assumes a trader knows how to use the Fibonacci tool which comes as a standard technical analysis tool on most charting software packages. While the key retracement levels are 38, 50, 62 and 70 percent, two extension levels are commonly used - 1.27 and 1.62 percent. The Importance Of Fib 127 It is the 1.27 level we are interested in. Why? Because price regularly gets to the 1.27 level, or at least within a few pips of it. Price also gets to the 1.62 level fairly often but not nearly as often as the 1.27 level. So if you are trading with the trend, always a safe currency trading strategy, and price has pulled back to the 50 or 62 retracement levels, there is a very reasonable chance price will reach the 1.27 target. If price pulls back to the 79 retracement level it may not go so far. If you trade from that retracement, you will want to take the first profit at the end of the swing as price may not extend beyond that point to the 1.27 or 1.62 level. Some traders just focus on this currency trading strategy when going with the trend: In at the Fib 50 retracement Out at the Fib 127 extension How To Use Fib 127 Here are some other factors to consider when using the Fib 127 extension: Look to see if this level coincides with other factors such as A previous key level of support or resistance on the higher time frames such as 1 hour, 4 hour, daily, or even weekly. The 200 EMA ( Exponential Moving Average ) on the 1 hour or 4 hour. This often provides quite a strong level of support and resistance . A pivot point (Central Pivot Point , R1, R2, S1, S2, or M1-4 levels ) calculated from the previous day's High, Low and Close. Even when targeting the Fib 127 as the profit taking point, it is wise to trim a couple of pips of the limit order. So often price will nearly reach Fib 127 and pull back. Yes it might go on to touch it later but in the meantime price retraces and you have to have the mental stamina to be able to handle that. Many traders would rather just take a slightly smaller profit and save themselves one or two hours of price consolidation with the risk they may lose the profit altogether. A solid currency trading strategy develops over time. A key ingredient is not being too ambitious. The Fib 127 extension level is a reasonable profit target you can use regularly to extract your wages from the Forex market! Jan 01 Comment: Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, trade discussions, or other information contained on this website are educational in nature and merely provided as a presentation of trading strategies. Commentaries made on this website reflect our own opinions and trading techniques and do not constitute investment advice. All information and material is for educational and entertainment purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. I'm not a registered investment advisor.
by TayFx
3
The short term market consensus for USD/JPY have change The short term market consensus for USD/JPY have change to Bullish Our Proprietary Trading System indicates the following: The Long Term Trend (LTT) given by the Global Monthly TIME BAR (GMTB) is currently Bearish The Medium Term Trend (MTT), given by the Global Weekly TIME BAR (GWTB) is currently Bullish The Short Term Trend (STT), given by the Global Daily TIME BAR (GDTB) is currently Bullish The Micro Trend (MT), given by the Global Four Hour TIME BAR (GFHTB) is currently Bullish In light of the above trend analysis we will execute a bullish trade on USD/JPY. Trade #1: Global Entry Signal For Trade #1: Buy @ 109.586 Global Trailing Stop Loss Trade #1: @ 109.099 Global Target Profit Trade #1 : @ 118.874 Global Trade Management Strategy: We applied the Global Trailing Stop System for Global Trading Strategy #3. View Updates Trading is risky There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and Forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose. The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities , currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by Global Financial Engineering,Inc. to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Long
by globalfinancialengineering