XAU rises high waiting for investors to take profitAccording to signals from the Fed and the market, in this meeting, the US Central Bank will cut the operating interest rate for the first time since March 2020. Previously, the Fed had raised interest rates 11 times, from March 2022 to September 2023, bringing interest rates from a record low of 0-0.25%/year to the current 5.25-5.5%.
The Fed raised interest rates to curb inflation, which peaked at a historical peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Maintaining interest rates at very high levels in the past 2 years has caused many difficulties for the American people and the economy has recently shown many negative signals, affecting the labor market. Many experts are worried that the US economy will fall into recession. Over the past month, Fed officials have sent many signals that the bank will cut interest rates.
Forexchief
XAU waits for news from the US Federal Reserve (Fed)Previously, gold had a strong sell-off after current US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the race for the White House. The pressure to sell gold increased after this commodity increased previously and investors took advantage of taking profits in the context that they wanted to listen to more impact assessments of the rapid changes in world politics.
The decline of many stock markets also caused gold to be sold to compensate for stock purchase contracts. However, bottom-fishing demand quickly increased again for gold. Demand increases quite strongly every time gold reaches the psychological support level of 2,400 USD or 2,395 USD/ounce.
EUR/USDThe attention of market participants is focused on the US inflation indicators and FOMC meeting, although Fed is unlikely to raise the rate (no more than a 30% chance). US statistics on Thursday may increase the reaction of the markets to the Fed's decision and lead to a significant downward correction in the stock market.
EUR/USDThere are few statistics, the main release of the week - US ISM services - will be published today. It is this report that will complement the current NFP, correct expectations for the Fed's policy and determine the main direction of the market. If the components of retail prices show an increase in inflation in the services sector, then the US stock market will fall against the backdrop of a rising dollar. In this case, the Fed may once again surprise the markets by raising rates, which will be extremely negative for the US economy.
GBP/USDGBP/USD
News about the refusal to hold another referendum on Scottish independence has already been worked out. Technical factors give signals for continued growth, but macroeconomic factors do not support this trend. Active growth requires going beyond the resistance level of 1.2250-1.2300. Selling requires a confident breakout of the 1.1850 zone.
EUR/USDEUR/USD
There is no important news this week, but there will be many speeches and comments, but this is not enough for a downward turn. Trading interest is steadily shifting upwards, but a technical correction is needed to remove large StopLoss below the level of 0.9750. New purchases will be relevant only after a confident breakdown of the parity zone.
GBP/USDGBP/USD
The pair never left the main range. Speculative volumes related to the fundamental events of the last week are closed. There is no positive news yet. The balance of volumes is shifting to the sales area. New purchases will be relevant only on a confident breakdown of the protection zone above 1.17.
XTI/USDXTI/USD
The decision to limit prices for Russian oil has been made, but specific values have not yet been set, so this factor does not affect the current market. The priority of purchases is still preserved, but the growth potential is limited by the 100 zones. To break through this level, fundamental factors cannot be dispensed with. Short-term sales can only be considered as a technical correction, not below the 83.00/50 zone.
USD/JPYUSD/JPY
The speculative volumes associated with the reaction to the NFP have already been closed, and the pair is forming a new protection zone. A short-term strong reaction to the US election results is possible, but fundamental targets above the 150 zone are still relevant. The probability of an upward reversal after a correction to the 145 zones is high.
GBP/USDGBP/USD
Problem with the new prime minister must be resolved by October 28, but this is unlikely to have a strong impact on the pound. The balance of volumes is shifted to the buying zone, but there are no fundamental factors for exiting the downward channel yet. New purchases can only be opened on a confident breakdown of the 1.1540-1.15 zone.