Forexchief
GBP/USDGBP/USD
No matter how much BOE raises rates this time around, speculators are bound to react strongly. Too many pending volumes have accumulated at the border of the range 1.2000−1.2250. If the market reaction to the results of BOE meeting is positive, then a strong upward correction is relevant. If the reaction is negative, then we will fall to the zone of 1.14 and below.
EUR/USDEUR/USD
There are no strong fundamental factors this week, but there may be speculation at the publication of ECB report − the market needs to work out StopLoss above/below range of 1.0100−1.0300. The optimists managed to bring price out of the parity zone, but this is temporary. Above the level of 1.0350, new selling interest is accumulating.
XTIUSDXTIUSD
The balance of volumes is shifted to the sales area. Fears of a global recession and a shortage of demand outweigh the risks of a shortage of oil supply. We will see the market reaction to the increase in production volumes that Saudi Arabia promised to Biden in about 1.5−2 weeks, but for now, we remain sceptical about the growth prospects and the breakdown of the key zones100.
USDJPYUSDJPY
The balance of volumes has shifted to the buying zone, but it is not worth opening new positions yet − the technical correction continues. If the dollar does not interfere, then the bears can make a full-fledged retest of the protection zone of 137.80−136.50 and wait for the results of the BOJ meeting at these levels.
GBPUSDGBPUSD
Reaction to the two rounds of the election of a new prime minister can be considered weak − the pair remains in a strong range of 1.2050−1.1750. Statistics of the current week are unlikely to give a strong enough impulse to break through the borders. The balance of volumes is still shifted to the sales zone and any political negativity can drop the pound below the protection zone of 1.1750/00 by 1.5−2 figures.
EURUSDEURUSD
The pair broke the parity level for the first time in 20 years, and this situation is unsustainable. Sellers are cautiously mastering the area of 0.9950−0.9850, but fixing profits too quickly and cannot consolidate yet. Key price zones remain, although the euro still has a chance for a positive. The level of 1.0050−1.0150 is accumulating buying interest, but the support of the foundation is needed for a confident upward movement. We are waiting for a signal from the ECB.
TeslaTesla made a leap and exited the Ichimoku cloud.
After a three-month decline in quotes to the level of $600 per contract, Tesla made a growth spurt and broke through the trend line of the long-term downward channel. The situation was significantly changed by the Chinese market and sales growth in June was 142% and 135% higher than in the same period in 2021, as stated by the China Passenger Car Association. This fact was positively reflected in the deferred demand of the market and the contract price broke through the resistance of $700, after which it confidently fixed itself above $750 per contract. It is worth noting that at the level of 700 a bullish engulfing candlestick combination was formed, which is a strong technical signal for further confident growth. Not an unimportant addition is the exit on the price chart from the Ichimoku cloud with the potential to test the resistance level of $800-900.
USD/JPYUSD/JPY
The yen made a rather unpatriotic attempt to rally after the assassination attempt on Shinzo Abe, but Nikkei 225 futures in Osaka shed 1.4% of their positive and the situation remained volatile. Investors continue to buy the yen and US government bonds. The main buying interest is above 137.50. The potential for a rollback down is still weak.
GBP/USDGBP/USD
Johnson's resignation may reduce the degree of political uncertainty, which held back the growth of all trading assets involving the pound. Major speculators are just getting ready for strong action and are accumulating buying interest above the 1.20 zone and new buying interest is accumulating. There is still not enough foundation to break through the protection zone, but positive GDP statistics may turn out to be a strong factor for a new direction.
EUR/USDEUR/USD
The couple stopped at the threshold of parity. The fundamental background favours the strengthening of the dollar, but the pace of the euro's decline depends on the macroeconomic data of the current week. The balance of volumes is shifted in the direction of sales, but a technical correction is needed, at least to the zone of 1.0350-1.0420.
XTI/USDXTI/USD
Buyers are trying to make up for losses and will use even insignificant fundamental factors to move up. Oil is supported by rising supply-side risks associated with Kazakh oil flows. Only the worsening of the epidemiological situation with a new lockdown in China can correct the intentions of buyers.
XTI/USDXTI/USD
OPEC+ maintains the same momentum: production growth will not exceed 648 thousand barrels per day, although this is not enough for a confident market balance. Force majeure in Ecuador and Libya remains a short-term speculative factor. In the medium term, interest in buying remains. Active sales are possible after a confident breakdown of the 101.50-100.00 zone.
USD/JPYUSD/JPY
There is growing concern among Japanese industrialists about the prospects for economic growth amid rising commodity prices and the coronavirus outbreak in Asia. Working out the reaction to the statistics, which showed a decrease in confidence in the country's economy, is almost completed, but the trade interest in buying remains. The growth scenario can be considered after a retest of the zone above 136.00/50, with a confident breakdown of 133.20/00 we will fall to the protection zone of 130 and below.
GBP/USDGBP/USD
The pound does not have its own fundamental factors. Tomorrow is the release of the Services PMI and Bailey's speech. No important information is expected, especially since it is not customary in Britain to announce a correction in monetary policy and/or the key rate. So we follow in the wake of the euro and follow the dollar.
EUR/USDEUR/USD
The pair is trying to catch on to the fourth figure. To fall below 1.0350, a strong informational occasion is needed (see the minutes of the ECB and the Fed), otherwise, all southern impulses will die in this zone. Any correction can be used to open purchases with rather modest targets: 1.0550-1.0650.
Alerian MLP ETFAlerian MLP ETF risks falling to 2021 low
ETF Alerian, after updating the two-year high of $42 per contract as part of a long-term uptrend, began a rapid flight to the $30 support level, breaking through the trend line of the two-year uptrend channel. The current downward dynamics of Alerian's decline puts investors in a stupor, the presence of gaps only confirms pessimistic moods. Pending buying demand is below the $30 support level, which could well be the starting point for a subsequent correction with the potential to recover with a renewed high of $50 per contract.
GoldThe US may be left without Russian gold.
The US Treasury Department plans to issue a decree banning the import of new gold from Russia. The relevant information is contained on the official website of the administration of President Joe Biden. Thus, the Biden administration will expand targeted sanctions to further restrict Russia's access to global financial markets. Gold occupies the second place in the external export of the Russian Federation after energy resources. Gold futures ignored this statement and the opening of the trading week shows a low volatility dynamics. The instrument is traded in a rather narrow price range of 1.825-1.850. The $1,800 per contract support level remains key for a solid rise towards the $1,900 per contract target.
USD/JPYUSD/JPY
Results of the last meeting of the BOJ were not in favour of the yen, so the growth of inflationary indicators did not excite traders: the price showed a formal reaction, falling by only a few tens of points. Substantial pullbacks down can be used to open new longs, but there is a strong protection zone ahead with 1998 highs. It can be broken only on strong speculation with fundamental support.