USD/JPYUSD/JPY
The traditional process of repatriation of foreign capital before the start of the new financial year has already been completed, so we are waiting for a technical correction. New volumes of buyers are located above the 125 zones, but speculative interest in selling is accumulating there.
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XTI/USDXTI/USD
Price is reacting to information about the US plans to sell on the open market 1 mln barrels a day from strategic reserves over the next six months. This fact is unlikely to break the medium-term bullish trend, especially since the decision of OPEC+ to maintain the same dynamics of increasing production is already putting pressure on active sellers. A fall below the protection zone of 87.50 is unlikely, we are waiting for a rollback upwards.
XTI/USDXTI/USD
Negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran have been suspended. Iran's shelling of Iraqi territory in the area of the US Consulate General caused an outburst of confrontation between Washington and Tehran, although the US reaction is rather calm. The medium-term upward trend is not cancelled, but a technical correction is needed, for which any informational factor can be used.
USD/JPYUSD/JPY
For the yen to reverse the market lacks panic, but it is very likely after the Fed meeting. A breakout of the 117.50-118 zone guarantees growth by 1.5-2 figures, but a move higher is unlikely. The tone of the BOJ press conference will depend on the technical picture that emerges after the close of the Asian session on Friday.
GBP/USDGBP/USD
Changes in BOE policy are not expected, but speculative buying volumes above the 1.3250 zone may call for a strong technical correction, but there are not enough fundamental factors for a steady increase. there are no factors. All large sales volumes are already open, there is no new interest yet. In the area of 1.27, a strong rollback up is possible.
EURUSDAgainst the background of the aggravation of the military conflict in Eastern Europe, the markets unanimously updated their annual lows. From the countries involved in the conflict, there is a massive outflow of capital. The dollar absolutely dominates against the backdrop of aggressive demand for defensive assets.
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We warn you: now it is impossible to draw conclusions about the formation of any new trend. The accumulation of trading volumes in key areas is relevant until the end of this week. Large options were closed last week. The market is in a state of shock, so all technical recommendations should be considered a short-term situational assessment. The euro and oil will be especially volatile.
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The statistics of the current week can cause a strong reaction only if any extreme data appears, with a strong deviation from the forecast. Own fundamental factors for individual assets have almost no effect on real dynamics.
GBP/USDGBP/USD
The current balance of volumes is shifted towards purchases, but the probability of a flat is still higher than an active growth. There are no strong statistics this week. We open long positions at the breakdown of 1.36850/80 with targets of 1.3750-1.38 and higher; sales will be relevant in case of breakdown of the protection zone 1.3450.
EUR/USDEUR/USD
The influence of macroeconomic statistics is weak, the dynamics will depend only on geopolitics. But still, it is worth paying attention to the consumer price index of the EU countries and Lagarde's speech. The medium-term balance is shifted towards sales, we open purchases only after a steady price movement above 1.1450-1.1500.
XTI/USDXTI/USD
Geopolitical risks support short-term growth, but when the situation in Europe normalizes, large hedging purchases will be closed, which will lead to a downward correction. The implementation of the Iran deal could trigger a downward spike with a quick pullback followed by a steady fall below zone 80.
XTI/USDXTI/USD
There has been little progress in negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran, but this fact does not yet affect global prices. The growth of quotations is caused by geopolitical risks, with a decrease in the degree of conflict, the oil will have a strong downward correction from a strong protection zone of 95-96.50.
USD/JPYUSD/JPY
The dollar continues to advance, the current balance of volumes indicates the third attempt to break through the resistance zone above 116.50. But after long holidays, China returns to the market, which can cause a fairly strong downward correction. Friday is a public holiday in Japan.
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GBP/USDGBP/USD
Speculative volumes related to BOE and NPF meeting are completely closed. Investors' appetite for buying will depend on the quality of economic reports, which will be published on Friday. Absence of fundamental factors at the beginning of week gives the market a chance to rebalance volumes, so an active flat in range of 1.37 − 1.35 is most likely. The situation after publication of statistics will develop in the direction of breakdown of boundaries of channel 1.3450 − 1.3750.