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NASDAQ Next week expectation #NAS100 Next week..! The price reaches the highest level. And this should be retested. Because 13th of June reaches this price and falls down to 19,479 level. But in a low time frame still running between the Accending channels. But the movement is bearish Because 2 times it is tested with treeline. However once the market opens if the current 4H candle end below 19670 can go for sell to 19352 level. And the buy area located at 18753 - 18933 according to 4H timeframe *My trading plan. Trade at your own risk good luck
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by chamitha45
5
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT: In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for price to attempt the push up, go into resistance where we wanted to short the market into the order region, and then look for the long trade back up from there on the RIP into the levels above. This went extremely well giving us a pin point move from level to level. During the week we updated the idea, which was already going to plan with a new bullish bias level and trade the new Excalibur activations upside into just below where we are now. Plan worked well again giving an almost pip to pip, level to level reaction from our levels and following our bias and analysis posted pre-hand. Well done to those that followed not only gold but the numerous other pairs we trade in Camelot which also gave us fantastic results for the week. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? This week we would say caution on long trades unless we get a pullback into key level support where we feel it’s worth a test, unless the higher levels aren’t taken on or during the early sessions of the week. We have an order region sitting above 2425-35 which is a large region, and if we see price attempt and give us a clean reversal there, we feel an opportunity to short the market is available for traders back down into the 2400 and below that 2385 price region which is where they may want to start to accumulate again. The issue we have here is that 2445-65 level which is a clean region of liquidity if they want to take it and stretch the sellers even more, so here we will caution again, as that level is the extension of the move, be prepared! So, in practice what do we do? Because we’re back in uncharted territory again, we’ll have to treat this as level to level play, we’ll look lower in the highlight region to go long, unless broken, and if they continue to take us up, we’ll trade it level to level looking for the ultimate short trade following our trusted guide. KOG’s Bias for the week: Bullish above 2395 with targets above 2430-35 and above that 2447 Bearish on break of 2395 with targets below 2375 It’s going to be a difficult week with potential of gaps on opening due to a Powell speech later, be fore market open! There is a lot of geopolitical news driving the markets and fear is present, although it’s looking like we’re going higher we would say caution over the week as a sudden turn will be extreme! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
Powerful Fibonacci Trading Strategy For Beginners I am going to reveal a powerful fibonacci trading strategy that I learned many years ago. It combines structure analysis, fibonacci retracement and extension levels and candlestick analysis. Step 1 Find a trending market - the market that is trading in a bullish or in a bearish trend on a daily time frame. AUDUSD is trading in a bullish trend on a daily. Step 2 Execute structure analysis - identify key horizontal and vertical structures on a daily time frame. Take a look at key structures that I spotted on AUDUSD. Step 3 Draw fibonacci retracement levels. Here are the important ratios you should look for: 382, 50, 618, 786. In a bearish trend, draw fibonacci retracement levels from the high of the trend to current low based on wicks. In a bullish trend, You should apply fibonacci retracement from the low of the trend to a current high based on wicks. Take a look how I draw the retracement levels, I took the low of the trend and the high of the trend. Step 4 Find confluence. Look for fibonacci numbers that match - lie within key structures that you identified. Support 1 matches with 382 retracement. Support 2 matches with 786 retracement. Remove other ratios from the chart. Step 5 Wait for a test of one of the fibonacci levels that match with key structure The price perfectly tested 382 retracement level. Step 6 Wait for a confirmation on a 4h time frame. Our confirmation will be a formation of an engulfing candle - a strong candle that completely engulfs the entire range of a previous candle with its body. In a bearish trend, we will look for a formation of a bearish engulfing candle. Bearish engulfing candle indicates a strong selling pressure and the strength of the sellers. In a bullish trend, we will look for a bullish engulfing candle. It indicates a strong buying reaction and imbalance. Have a look at a bullish engulfing candle that was formed on AUDUSD on a 4H time frame after a test of 382 retracement. Step 7 Open a trading position, set stop loss and choose the target. After you spotted an engulfing candle, open a trading position. Open short after a formation of a bearish engulfing candle and open long after a formation of a bullish engulfing candle. If you sell, your safest stop loss will be 1.272 extension of the last bullish impulse on a 4H. If you buy, your stop loss will be 1.272 extension of the last bearish impulse on a 4H. In our example, our stop loss will be 1.272 extension of a bearish impulse leg on a 4H time frame. The extension is based on high and low of the impulse. If you short, your take profit will be the closest key structure support on a daily. If you buy, your take profit will be the closes key structure resistance on a daily. Here is our take profit level. Being applied properly, the strategy should generate 60%+ winning rate. Always remember to check your reward to risk ratio before you open the trade. It should be at least 1.1/1. Also, before you place a trade, always make sure that you trade WITH the trend and take only trend-following trades. The strategy works perfectly on Forex, Gold, Silver, Oil, Indexes. Good luck in your trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
30
KOG - Identify your zones!Identifying the correct zones and regions for your trading: Many of our followers will know that not only do we have Excalibur targets, we give the exact levels and price points that we want the price to achieve. What we also do, is show you the boxes (zones) on the chart for the wider community, to help steer you in the right direction. Price action plays a huge part in this and it’s something all traders should learn, however, zones are effective, not only in trading the right way, but knowing when you’re in the wrong way! Price is a series of test on levels. It creates trends or ranges but will always do the same thing. Once we understand this, we know it's not the market that is the problem, it’s us, the trader. If we learn it's behaviour all we then need to do is make sure our money and risk management is up to scratch. It's never 100%, but if we test a level, it breaks, structure suggests it's going against us, don't hold on to hope, or add more in the direction you intended. Cut the damn thing like it's a poison to your account. You need to treat this as a business, no matter what your account size. Every day there are large institutions who want to take your money away from you, you’re in this market to take from them and give them as little as possible. You should have a risk model in place, am I going to risk a certain percentage of my account? Am I going to stick to a stop loss of a certain number of pips? Am I going to have a risk reward that makes sense? Your stop loss and risk management plan are your best friend in this market, it allows you to limit the losses and live to trade another day. The market will give you clues as to what it’s going to do, breaks, tests, and retests. We can plan the move before it happens this way, we know if it breaks a level, that level turns into support or resistance then it’s going to go and test the next level. Remember: The market will always give you a chance to get out of a trade if it’s going against you, as traders our ego's take over and we hold on to hope. If you're in a whipsaw and choppy market and in the wrong direction, your safest option, even if it ends up going your way in the end is to get out of it and limit your losses. You can always find another entry point for a better risk reward. Ego is one of the biggest killers of accounts and works both ways. Hold on to a failing plan it will humble you. Show the market you’re too confident, it will humble you! Know when to trade, know when not to trade, know when you’re in the wrong way and accept defeat! The example on the chart is showing you a simple 4H timeframe, with the zones in place. We know price will play zones and levels, it has to test these almost to see if it likes that price point or not. It will either break or reject the level. If it breaks, you will usually see a forceful break, then the retest of the level which turns previous support/resistance into new support/resistance, or it will reject, in which case you will usually find the reversal. When trading with a bias or a target in mind, the market will use these zones (levels) to work within and as traders, we should know that if a level is hit, that’s our target reached, or, if it’s broken, that’s sign that we should either start thinking about managing the trade or getting out of it. In order to plot the levels, you will need to zoom out of the chart. Similar to the ‘Simple trading strategy’ we have shared in the past, you will use the peaks and troughs dragged across to present day, to identify your zones. Why? You may ask! Because the market is historical, the levels are the levels, and “levels don’t lie”. Concern: What many traders do, and it’s not their fault, it’s just a lack of education and trading experience, is hold on to trades with huge drawdown. They will place a trade in one direction, price goes against them, instead of implementing a stop loss, they will convince themselves the market will come back to this price, so instead “I’ll turn that into a swing trade”. This is the wrong way to think about the market, especially if you’re an intra-day trader, which most of us are. Shown on the chart, you can see, the level breaks, the level is retested, the retest in confirmed and the price moves away from the level. Once, the retest if confirmed, that’s the market telling you the trader, listen, you’re potentially in the wrong way, and we’re going to test another level higher/lower, so prepare yourself. This is a really simple way, together with a risk model in place, to limit losses and maintain a healthy account. Please try it and let us know! As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by KnightsofGold
7
KOG - Simple Trading Strategy Simple Trading Strategy - Generate your own take profit targets. Today we're going to share with you a simple yet effective trading strategy that can be used on any instrument. Like any other trading strategy its not 100%, but, you can see from that illustration how effective it can be in keeping you in the right direction on a pair. You can add Moving averages to this as well as which ever indicators you prefer to use and fine tune the strategy to make it work for you. We must stress, with this strategy you have to have a confident ability in charting and have an understanding of support and resistance levels as well as key zones and regions of liquidity. The bonus with the strategy is it can be applied to all time frames, it can be used to swing trade on longer time frames and to scalp on short time frames. So when we publish our daily morning reviews with our levels and say "LEVEL TO LEVEL" trading, this strategy gives you an idea of what we're suggesting. Also, when we share our 15M levels and zones you can apply this strategy to trade your way up or down to the target. So lets begin: 1) Start with the 4H chart 2) Look for price action where the price was previously in the same range 3) Use the highs and the lows of swings to plot your support and resistance lines 4) Switch to the 1hr chart 5) You are looking for candle body closes above or below the support or resistance lines. The bigger the candle body close the more accurate the target above is. We can use this strategy to take numerous trades in up and down until the target level is reached. This strategy also helps you with your entries and exits. Once you plot the lines and see the price is in between two lines of support and resistance, you will know not to enter a trade. Wait for the pull back on the smaller timeframe or for your chosen indicator to give you the signal!! NOTE: • Lines can never be accurate but try to get them as precise as possible • You must update your lines daily as support and resistance levels change • You must have a risk strategy in place. On most occasions there will be a pullback or retracement on price which can put you in drawdown. • Money and risk management are priority when using this strategy. • Nothing is 100% but once you add the Excalibur target to the chart you have clearer idea of direction. ALWAYS REMEMBER: MAs and indicators are lagging, when using this strategy try to keep it simple and clean. Basic support and resistance levels along with a decent candle body close. Try it, backtest it, apply it. Let us know your findings. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by KnightsofGold
30
Timeframe Tango: Finding Your Trading RhythmWelcome to the thrilling world of timeframes—a place where every minute counts and every candlestick tells a story. You've probably asked yourself a million times, "What's the best timeframe to trade?" Well, buckle up because we're about to dive deep into the mesmerizing world of timeframes and trading strategies! Picture this: timeframes are like puzzle pieces. Lower timeframes, such as the 100 or 500-piece puzzles, are intricate and require patience. Think of them as the fast and furious lanes of trading where every tick matters. Conversely, higher timeframes resemble those 10 or 20-piece puzzles—quicker to solve and offer a broader market perspective. Now, let's talk strategy. It's all about how fast and efficiently you piece those puzzles together. Whether crafting your unique strategy or borrowing a page from the pros, the goal remains: wait for the market to paint your perfect setup. But here's the kicker: you've got to be strategic with your timeframes. Let's break it down with some juicy details! Imagine you're a 9-5 warrior or a student hustling through classes. Your time is precious. So, let's talk hours. How many trade opportunities can you snag in an hour? If you thrive on adrenaline and lightning-fast decisions, the 1- and 5-minute timeframes might be your playground. You're in for a wild ride with 60 to 12 candlesticks printed each hour! Scalping and day trading become your middle names as you seize opportunities left and right. When analyzed correctly, you could see 1-3 opportunities within an hour. But if you've got more wiggle room in your schedule, let's talk swing trading. Picture the 15-minute to minutes—a sweet spot for those seeking a balance between action and analysis. With 4 and 2 candlesticks printed each hour, you've got time to breathe and plan your moves. Now, let's zoom out a bit. Say hello to the 1 and 4-hour timeframes—the realm of short-term swing trading. Here, you're not watching the clock; you're watching the trend unfold over hours and days. With 24 to 6 candlesticks printed in a day, you've got ample opportunities to spot those juicy setups. Think 3-4 trade opportunities a week on the 1-hour timeframe and 1-2 on the 4-hour timeframe. It's the sweet spot between day trading and short-swing trading! Finally, we arrive at the granddaddy of timeframes—the daily chart. Here, we're talking about long-term swings and big-picture analysis. With three to four great opportunities a month, you have time to breathe, plan, and execute precisely. It's like watching the market paint its masterpiece, one candlestick at a time. So, what's your trading style? Are you a scalping sensation, a swing trading maverick, or a long-term visionary? Find the timeframe that fits your schedule like a glove, and let's embark on this epic trading journey together! Catch you on the charts, Shaquan
Education
by ShaquanLopez
Trading Hacks - Deep AnalysisSorry for sound quality, better quality on yt ☝️Dear traders, no one here has superpowers, and I'm just a human after all. Please take everything with a grain of salt. I'm sharing my view and one of the possible scenarios of price action, but mostly - my direct experience. When I enter I try to predict as little as possible and actually follow what the market is doing, joining the market and not arguing with it or forcing my will. Have good trading, keep a constant flow of self-awareness, and do your best. 🙌
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by Yelli_trades
2
15 Essential Topics to Transform into a Pro Trader 📈💹 Embarking on a journey to become a professional forex trader requires a solid understanding of various key topics. Whether you're a beginner or looking to enhance your trading skills, mastering these 15 forex topics will set you on the path to success. Let's dive into the essentials! 💪 1. Understanding Forex Basics 🌐 - Learn the basics of currency pairs, exchange rates, and market participants. 2. Fundamental Analysis 📰 - Explore economic indicators and events affecting currency values. 3. Technical Analysis 📊 - Study charts, patterns, and indicators to make informed trading decisions. 4. Risk Management Strategies 🛡 - Implement effective risk management to protect your capital. 5. Trading Psychology 🧠 - Master emotions and discipline for consistent trading success. 6. Different Trading Styles 🔄 - Explore day trading, swing trading, and position trading. 7. Leverage and Margin 📊 - Understand the risks and benefits of trading with leverage. 8. Market Order vs. Limit Order ⏩ - Differentiate between instant execution and pending orders. 9. Interest Rates and Carry Trade 📈 - Learn how interest rates impact currency values and the carry trade strategy. 10. Correlation in Forex Markets 🔄 - Understand how currency pairs move in relation to each other. 11. Economic Calendar Awareness 📆 - Stay updated on economic events and their potential impact. 12. Backtesting and Demo Trading 📊 - Test strategies in a risk-free environment before trading live. 13. Diversification Strategies 🌐 - Spread risk by trading various currency pairs and assets. 14. Market Sentiment Analysis 📈📉 - Gauge the mood of the market to anticipate price movements. 15. Continuous Learning and Adaptation 📚 - Stay updated on market trends, technologies, and regulations. Becoming a pro trader involves continuous learning and a commitment to mastering these essential forex topics. With dedication and practice, you can navigate the complexities of the forex market and trade with confidence. Happy trading! 🚀💰 Let me know, traders, what do you want to learn in the next educational post?
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by TopTradingSignals
3
Understanding Euro Zone Economic NewsEuro Zone Economic News Explained: Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing: The Purchasing Managers Manufacturing report is a survey of manufacturing providers in the Eurozone (EZ) and focuses in on issues such as costs and demand. Essentially, a strong PMI, in which costs are low and demand is improving is bullish for the Euro, whereas a survey that results in increasing costs and decreasing demand implicates speculation against the Euro. Manufacturing is a significant component of the EZ economy, and thus a survey that indicates optimism or pessimism about the sector can really get the markets moving, the Euro in particular. A reading of 50 is a critical measure in the PMI index with a number below 50 indicating contraction and a number above 50 indicating expansionary conditions. Taking a strong position based solely on the PMI Manufacturing Survey though could prove to be regretful. Purchasing Managers Index Services: The Purchasing Managers Services report is a survey of service providers in the EZ and focuses in on issues such as costs and demand. Essentially, a strong PMI, in which costs are low and demand is improving is bullish for the Euro, whereas a survey that results in increasing costs and decreasing demand implicates speculation against the Euro. A reading of 50 is critical measure in the PMI index with a number below 50 indicating contraction and a number above 50 indicating expansionary conditions. The services sector is very important to the EZ and any significant gains or shortcomings could set the Euro climbing or falling. Retail Trade: Retail Trade is the measure of retail sales, and thus the willingness of the consumer to spend. An upswing in this figure could result in Euro buying whereas a shortfall could cause Euro selling. This number is very important to the trader because it correlates to consumer conditions and outlook within the EZ region. If the Retail Trade figure comes in strong it means that consumers are spending money and thus are probably well off, hinting that EZ consumer confidence and the CPI may also be strong. However, if Retail Trade figures are low, it could suggest that interest rates are too high, consumer confidence is sinking, or businesses are suffering. Clearly, a worse than expected Retail Trade figure offers more information (though ambiguity hand-in-hand) than does a strong figure because a strong figure seeks reinforcement from other indicators (such as the CPI and Consumer Confidence survey) and thus lags, whereas a less-than-expected figure immediately suggests that the EZ economy is most likely turning sour in one respect. Traders will often react immediately to this release, but much caution is exercised due to the wide array of implications this number carries with it. It is inadvisable to trade solely on this figure. German Retail Sales: German Retail Sales are very similar to the Retail Trade figure but differ in that they report an aggregate number of sales at retail outlets to provide for a better estimate of German private consumption. Like in Retail Trade, traders will often look to long the Euro should the figure be impressive, and short the European currency should it fall below expectations. Much like Retail Trade, traders will use the Retail Sales figure to better understand the direction of the economy in terms of other key economic releases. One of the few advantages the German Retail Sales has over Retail Trade is the time of release. Because the German figure is reported before the EZ number, traders can “jump the gun” should they wish, though acting in such a manner is not usually advisable in the Forex market. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product: The general rule of thumb when using GDP as a fundamental signal to trade is that an improved number means Euro positive whereas a lesser or unchanged figure translates into Euro stagnancy or bearishness. The Eurozone Gross Domestic Product is a measure of the progress of the Eurozone economy as a whole. The figure is very important to traders because it gauges the level of performance with which the Europeans are proceeding as well as harbingers and undermines the set of economic data that is expected to be reported from the region during a certain time period. Generally, the disclosure of a number that’s either expected or ahead of forecasts sets off bullish signals for the Euro; a number that falls below predictions invokes the Euro bears. GDP data for Germany, France, Italy, and the collective Eurozone region tend to be most closely followed. Current Account: The Current Account Deficit is probably the most comprehensive measure of international transactions for Europe as it is the measure of net exports, (total exports minus total imports). If the figure falls below expectations, slight movements against the Euro should be expected. But it is also important to keep in mind that a number that outperforms or either falls short of expectations is not necessarily going to get the traders to act hastily. The release of this number is monthly and tends to be in accord with the Trade Balance numbers that are generally reported a day or two in advance of the Current Account figure. The Current Account Deficit is usually interpreted in one way; a large negative number is damaging to the European currency. This is because the Current Account is a reflection of the net exports, and if it is negative, it shows that the Eurozone is importing more than it is exporting; a bad sign for industries at home and means that more Euros are going out of than coming into the region. However, the negativity of the number is not what traders pay attention to, but rather the change in it; the marginal change in the Current Account. The logic is very similar to that behind the GDP in that if a number comes in below expectations, it could hurt the Euro, whereas if it out performs forecasts, it could prove bullish for the European currency (despite its negativity). However, this number cannot be solely “judged by its cover” because the number says a lot more than meets the eye. For instance, a more negative figure does indeed signal a decrease in net exports, but at the same time could also serve to patron other economic releases, such as consumer spending. If the Europeans are spending a lot of money, and that money is leading them to buy things from abroad as their fiscal conditions are allowing them to do so, then a decrease in net exports doesn’t seem so “damaging” to the Eurozone economy; it could simply mean people are buying things exotic to them because they are better off. Generally though, the trend in industrialized western nations (Eurozone included) has been that a more negative Current Account is damaging to industries at home. So if the figure falls below expectations, at least slight movements against the Euro should be expected. Unemployment Data: Unemployment is a very significant indicator for Eurozone performance. It is reported in the beginning of every month and measures the percentage of the workforce that is currently out of a job but is actively seeking to be employed. Generally, traders understand slight improvements in the unemployment figure (as monthly figures generally vacillate by tenths of percentages) to be positive for the Eurozone economy and will buy Euros, whereas a no-change or increase in the unemployment numbers could lead to Euro stagnancy or dumping across the board. The figure is important because it signals how hard the Eurozone is actually working and helps to foreshadow consumer spending. High unemployment generally leads to lower consumer spending which can be bearish for the Eurozone economy as well as the Euro. The flip scenario is also true, weak Eurozone employment is bearish for the economy as well as the Euro. Generally speaking, unemployment raises concerns about the performance of firms, questioning whether businesses are either not hiring because they do not need more help, or are not hiring because they cannot afford to do so. If the latter is the case, then it could prove even more bearish for the Euro as it could be forecasting sour economic data regarding the productivity of businesses. German Unemployment: The German Unemployment figure is expressed in thousands and measures the change in unemployment in Germany; a positive figure says that more people are unemployed, thus leading to Euro selling, whereas a negative figure is indicative of decreasing unemployment and thus leads to Euro buying. Germany is important because it is the Eurozone’s largest economy. Any big or unexpected movements in this country have significant consequences for the Euro. This figure usually coincides with the Unemployment rate, but offers “greater detail” as it reports actual numbers, so that traders may have substance to trade off of if the rate itself remains unchanged. Consumer Price Index: The Consumer Price Index measures the change in price for a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. The higher the CPI, the more positive it is for the Euro, whereas the opposite is also true. The ECB has a 2% inflation target, so whenever consumer prices grow by more than 2%, the ECB becomes concerned and contemplates the need for rate hikes. If consumer prices grow by much less than 2%, the central bank has more flexibility to adjust monetary policy and interest rates. If the CPI has substantial gains, then the ECB would have the incentive to raise interest rates to keep inflation in check, thereby benefiting the Euro. However, if the CPI remains idle, or prices decrease, then even a rate cut is possible. CPI itself though consists of a few major components: one that includes energy prices, and one that includes food prices. These two constituents are very volatile and thus tend to sometimes “exaggerate” the CPI. Though they are undoubtedly considered when considering inflationary concerns, many times traders will also focus in on the “core CPI” to see how the change in prices in other sectors measured up to the changes in these two key areas. Either way, a sharp increase would generally prompt Euro buying, and a decrease would call for Euro dumping. German ZEW Survey: The German ZEW economic survey reflects the difference between the number of economic analysts that are optimistic and the number of economic analysts who are pessimistic about the German economy for the subsequent six months. Obviously, a positive figure bodes well for the Euro, while a negative number foreshadows Euro selling. The ZEW survey is important because firstly, it gauges the economic productivity of Germany, the Euro-Zone’s largest economy. Secondly, it forecasts the string of economic releases concerned with the different sectors of the economy. For instance, something like Factory Orders, Industrial Production, or even Retail Sales could be implicated (or at least their negative or positive changes) in the ZEW survey. Therefore, the survey is one of the key economic indicators that move the Euro during its time of release; the sentiment that results usually fuels the Euro strongly in one direction (at least in the short-term intra-day period). German IFO Survey: The Germany IFO economic survey is much like the ZEW economic survey in that it measures the sentiment, the confidence, in the German economy, but differs in that it includes the market-moving words of business executives. Usually, an improvement in the figure leads to Euro bullishness whereas a decrease or an unchanged number leads to either Euro stalemating or dumping. The IFO survey usually follows the ZEW and reflects sentiment along the same lines. However, should there exist a discrepancy between the ZEW and the IFO, traders tend to give the ZEW a bit more favoritism because it lacks the bias of business executives. Trading on either the ZEW or IFO survey isn’t usually very lucrative, unless both of these numbers are in line with each other and reinforce other key fundamental indicators as well. Industrial Production: The Industrial Production figure is a measure of the total industrial output of them Euro-Zone either on a monthly or yearly basis. The number is very significant as an improvement in the figure could lead the Euro to make significant gains whereas a decline or stagnant number could lead to weakness in the European currency. The reason Industrial Production is important is because it is a confirmation of its type of preceding economic releases (PPI, CPI, Retail Sales, etc.); the only key data following the IP figure being the Eurozone CPI estimate. This is why many times, by the time the Industrial Production data is due for release, traders will argue that the market has already “priced in” industrial productivity in the previous economic releases. Therefore, though large gains or losses in this figure could spark some immediate movement in the market, the market has more or less, factored in the expected Industrial Production data. German Industrial Production: German Industrial Production is a composite index of German Industrial Output that accounts for about 40% of GDP. This figure is very important because it measures the level of German Industrial Production; an improvement usually signals a “buy” in the Euro, whereas a decline in the figure constitutes a “sell” to many traders. The reason this particular IP report is more important is because not only does it measure the industrial output of Germany, the EZ’s largest economy, but also because of the fact that though it comes out late in the month, it is one of the first IP reports, and thus serves as a harbinger to the EZ IP report; if Germany saw decline, then the EZ IP report probably won’t be too bright, at least from the perspective of the trader. In a sense, the EZ IP continues to get priced in before its release. The German release has four significant components: manufacturing, which constitutes 82% of the figure, construction, which accounts for 9.5%, energy that has a 5.9% share, and mining which has the smallest share at 2.7%. Though all four components are important for Germany, movement in its largest constituent, manufacturing, usually carries the weight of the figure and has the attention of traders. German Factory Orders: German Factory Orders is an index of the volume of orders for manufactured products in Germany. This is a key figure for many traders, as an improvement in the number signals buying of the Euro, while a shortcoming signals a sell-off. The reason this reading is important is because Factory Orders not only reflect the strength of businesses but also help forecast other key economic releases such as retail sales. If orders are high, then businesses need more inventory, meaning that consumers are probably purchasing more. Traders key in on this figure, especially its components, before reacting towards the Euro. The four major constituents of German Factory Orders include intermediate goods (45.6%), capital goods (35.1%), consumer durables (11.8%), and consumer non-durables (7.4%). All four are very significant, but for different reasons. Traders will take the first two figures, the intermediate goods and capital goods, as an understanding of the strength of businesses within Germany. If there is an increase in these categories, then subsequent economic releases such as the PMI could also look very bright. The second two say much about consumer confidence and retail sales; if these two sectors are outperforming expectations, then the Euro could see significant gains. However, traders are usually wary when interpreting the German factory orders, because given some economic scenarios, gains in some sectors may very well offset losses in others whereas during certain time periods a different emphasis may be given to the different components. Therefore prudent traders will usually first consider the weight of each component before the release comes out and then act accordingly. Eurozone Labor Costs: The Eurozone Labor Costs (inclusive of both direct and indirect) figure reports the expenditures endured by employers in the EZ region in order to employ workers. Traders will generally understand higher costs to be negative for the EZ and consequently short the Euro, whereas decreasing costs may result in buying the Euro. However, it is advisable to understand the complexities involved in labor costs. On one hand, labor costs could be interpreted as a negative for businesses, but on the other hand they could be viewed as a positive stimulus for the economy. This is because firms may simply be hiring more qualified and thus more “expensive” individuals to increase specialization. If this is the case, then individuals within the economy may be better off, signaling that optimism is rising in the EZ; the Euro may see more gains. Also, there exists the possibility that while costs are rising, revenue is also rising, thus keeping total profit for businesses constant, and at the same time increasing payouts to workers, a signal that the EZ is expanding. In this case, the Euro may also be bought. However, understanding this complexity is again subject to the current economic scenario surrounding the EZ; if it is in a situation where expansionism is fertile or businesses have excess capital, then only can the increasing costs in labor justify a long position in the Euro. If that is not the case then increasing labor costs will result in Euro shorting.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
9