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NFP Prewiew and EUR/USDUS Non-Farm Payrolls report will be the major focus today. Most of the economists are expecting US NFP to post reading in between 183-200K in November. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain between 3.5-3.6% for the month. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to pick up to 0.3% mom. Still, there are signs that the jobs report could disappoint. Firstly, the ADP jobs data released on Wednesday showed that only 67K private payrolls were added. Secondly, the four-week average claims increased to 217K from 215K. Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board declined for 4th straight months while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing data continued to decline. If job growth falls short of expectations and wage growth fails to improve like economists anticipated, USD/JPY could fall toward 108 and EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.1150/80. You can looking also for bullish trades in NZD/USD, which recently saw a major breakout to 4-month highs and may have further to run from here. In the event the jobs and the wage data beat expectations, then we would favor looking for short-term bullish trades in USD/JPY, which remains in a near-term uptrend. Technically, EUR/USD is along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart. The RSI indicator is slightly below the overbought level of 70. We’re looking for the market to get a little overbought on a short-term time frame and to start shorting again for a very small trade. Until 1.1066 minor support is intact, further rise is still in favor. Corrective decline form 1.1179 could have completed at 1.0981. Rise from there would target a test on 1.1179 first. Break above that level will resume whole rally form 1.0879. However, a clear break of 1.1066 (daily 100 SMA) will turn bias back to the downside for testing 1.0981 instead. You can share in the comments bellow what's your trading strategy for today.
by ForexTrendline
Could positive momentum on USD/CNY continue? Risk overall continues to ebb and flow on US-China trade uncertainty and looks somewhat asymmetric, tilted to the downside, based on our view that the HK Bill if passed through the House of Reps could seriously complicate trade talks and the signing of Phase 1. Stock markets are on the rise, and the risk-on atmosphere is weighing on USD, JPY and gold. Last week the US dollar made its the best performance in nearly 3 months against the Chinese Yuan. USD/CNY is likely to hold below 7.05/04 in the near-term with a possible decline likely to be limited around 7.00-6.95. On other side, the technical indicators are constructive, and there appears to be near-term potential rally to the 7.06/08 resistance area (the highs since October's end). The dollar moved above its 20-day SMA for the first time since mid-October. Also on the 4-hour chart this SMA coincide to the middle line of the Bollinger Badns and the price broke above it. It may offer support now. You should take in mind also China PMIs data at the end of the week. Another decline could seriously impinge on the soft landing narrative markets have been forming over the past few weeks and draw a market-negative reaction.
by ForexTrendline
CAD/JPY Four technical reasons to "NORTH"The currency pair CAD/JPY is trade around 81.58 today. There is very interesting situation with H4 and D1 timeframes! Technically, at H4 chart, we notice many reasons for BUY: 1. Third touch of H4 support line which is the same like D1 support. 2. In the same time the price tests D1 resistance (support now). 3. 38,2 Fibo @ the same area. 4. MACD divergence. On daily chart, the price is trading inside of bullish channel and we have formed bullish wedge pattern. If the pair could break above the wedge, bulls could target the base of the wedge around 83.50. This is our medium-term target. Fundamentally and longer-term the BoC have just recently turned more dovish so this pair will be based on who is the under-performer - safe haven or BoC and commodities... As long as the trade rhetoric between the US and China stays positive the pair could keep rising. What do you think, is all mentioned above enough for Buy?
Long
by ForexTrendline
2
Could EUR break the current range today?From technical perspective, the pair is stuck in the 1.1100 - 1.1050 range. And we'll need to see a sharp breakouth in any direction to give us more clarity in the medium-term. For now, while the Dollar index is bullish in the medium-term, we can expect the euro to fall below 1.1050. Additionally, ECB President Lagarde will make her first major speech later today. If Lagarde uses today's speech as an opportunity to clarify her position on easing, we will see a strong reaction in EUR. A dovish prospects can push EUR/USD lower to 1.10, especially if that will be supported by weaker PMIs. More optimistic bias, on the other hand, could raise the euro to a 2-week high above $ 1.11. Outside of this, a positive surprise on PMIs will indicate that the European manufacturing malaise is bottoming and this will helps EUR/USD and German 10-years yields push higher. Further key resistance is 200-day SMA around 1.1175 (Nov. high). Either way, there appears scope for an uptick in EURUSD volatility. Our strategy is for trading in the range - Buy on the top limit and Sell on the bottom border with tight Stop-Losses above 1.1100 for the Sell position and bellow 1.1025 for the Buy. What do you think?
by ForexTrendline
2
GBP/USD consolidate in the triangle. Waiting for a big burst!Today our focus Shifts to the Pound. As you can see GBP/USD is moving in a bearish price channel since the end of October. Now the price also consolidate in the triangle, formed on 4-hour chart. At the same time the pair is at critical point struggling around 1.2845. Because the area of 1.2835 - 1.2848 is a dense cluster of levels including the Bollinger Bands 4-hour middle line, the Simple Moving Average 100 on M15 timeframe, the M15 200 SMA, the 1-hour 50 SMA, the 4-hour 10 EMA and the Fibonacci 38.2% on the daily chart. If the price broke below the triangle, we can see the bears to test their next target at 1.2837 before potential further rebound to be seen. On the upside, if the bulls make a clear break above the triangle, the price can test the upper trend line of the bearish channel around 1.2920 before to extend the rally up to psychological 1.3000 level. Fundamentally, take in mind that today is another busy day ahead on the data front. Key stats include October retail sales figures that will influence the Pound. Disappointing numbers would fuel further speculation of a near-term BoE rate cut. The Pound has stood up against quite dire data this week, supported by the general election opinion polls. It’s unlikely that the Pound would be able to stomach dire numbers today, however. What is your trade here?
by ForexTrendline
USD/JPY Four Support Lines and Something Else?!The US dollar has initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but then broke down towards the 200-day EMA. At that point, it’s likely that the US Dollar trying to find support and the market could explode to the upside with some kind of “risk on” type of situation. Beyond that, there are a whole host of issues to think that the market may struggle to break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (on the fall from 114.55 to 106.41). At this point, the market can break above that level 109.50, then it’s likely that we could see a significant move higher. That being the case though, we would need to clear the 110 level to have the signal that we are going much higher. All things being equal, looking at the 50-day EMA sloping higher and reaching towards the 200-day EMA, it shows signs that we could continue to go higher, as this is a major longer-term “buy-and-hold” signal. This is the favorable case for us until the 108.64 support holds. You can see on the chart why this area is so key. Consider also the nonsense coming out of the United States Congress will of course cause some issues later in the day, just as Jerome Powell talking well. Keep an eye on U.S. Treasury yields too. What do you think?
Long
by ForexTrendline
Buy Limit CAD/NZD @ 1.1870Buy Limit CAD/NZD @ 1.1870 SL - 1.1800 (-70 pips) TP1 - 1.2040 (+170 pips] TP2 - 1.2100 (+230 pips) Fundamental Analysis i. 10.15.2019 COT Reports show ~67,000 orders from non-commercial entities (Banks) Longing the CAD and ~56,500 orders shorting the NZD. ii. 2Y Canadian Bonds show a Bearish trend. iii. If the price of the 2y Bond goes down, the Yield goes up. If Yield goes up, the price goes up. Technical Analysis iv. Daily chart shows Support @ 1.1855 and Resistance @ 1.2050. v. To play it safe and get a cheaper price; 4H chart shows a good level of entry just above the 1.1855 Support between 1.1860 and 1.1880, hence the buy limit @ 1.1870. vi. Fibonacci Retracements from the swing low to the swing high show the 1.1855 Support right in between the 0.236 and 0.382 levels. vii. SL placed @ the 0.382 level (1.1800). *Thought about placing SL at the 0.05 level of 1.1695 but due to the quality of information from the COT reports i didn't see a necessity for it. Hopefully I'm right. *fingers-crossed* viii. TP1 placed 10 pips below the 1.2050 Resistance (1.2040). ix. TP2 placed 10 pips below what looked like another resistance just below the 1.2128 swing high.
Long
by aromanFX