Bears Knocked Out: Market Sentiment Shifts as Bulls Cut ProfitGuys, don't get me wrong, but it's like they knock out the bears before going down. The sentiment indicators we're looking at agree with that.
In particular, yesterday, with the rise in quotes, some participants are actively draining call options in-the-money with about 15 trading days ahead. In other words, they just cut the profits and didn't wait.
Take a look at this chart
It shows the balance of bullish and bearish open positions among retail traders, and how it change over time. Two things are clear: 1) there's a correlation between how prices move and the number of traders who are long vs. short, and 2) there are certain levels where the balance tips and the trend reverses (basically, it's like a oscillator indicator).
The red line shows your current position. You'll have to make your own decisions and observations.
Use retail sentiment in your trades - it's a great tool that can help strengthen your strategy and make your trading more efficient.
Forexmarket
World gold will reach 2,600 USD/ounce when the Fed cuts interestGeopolitical tensions continue to be a catalyst supporting the gold rally. In today's trading session, XAU/USD is expected to continue to maintain above the 2,500 zone and has the potential to increase further. However, investors should note that if the price closes below 2,499 on the H4 time frame, it could be a sign of a short-term correction.
There is no news for gold today, the current trend is still sideways at 2482 and 2510, it can trade in this price range.
XAU increases sharply to maintain record high priceThe $2,500/ounce level of the precious metal is very difficult to maintain. Because, after reaching a new historical milestone, gold is easily sold off by investors to take profits. Not only that, at such a high price, it is difficult to attract new buyers to the market, also causing this commodity to decrease in price.
The upward trend of gold is still in place and the direction of the precious metal will depend on the policy direction of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
The balance between economic growth and inflation is reduced, which will strengthen the possibility of a stronger interest rate cut. On the contrary, if he is optimistic and does not make a specific commitment, the market may have to readjust current expectations.
XAU receives strong support from USDWeaker USD Supports Strong XAU Gains
XAU is currently at an all-time high
Although gold has since been hit by a wave of profit-taking from investors, the decline in the USD is providing positive support and halting the decline in the precious metal.
Traders are now looking ahead to the annual Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting that begins later this week. In previous years, central bank officials have made market-moving statements at the meeting. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the meeting on Thursday morning.
XAU Could Surpass All-Time HighThis gold buying trend is expected to remain unchanged in the coming period due to the impact of the current economic situation and geopolitical conflicts. At the same time, consumer prices have fallen after hitting a record high, easing pressure on the market.
The focus of gold investors next week is the annual central bank conference at the Fed's Jackson Hole resort. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday, expected to share the prospect of an upcoming Fed rate cut.
Positive US inflation data in July has paved the way for the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The market predicts the Fed will cut by 0.25 percentage points at this meeting.
XAU surges despite positive news for DXYThe drop in jobless claims suggests the US economy is recovering well, which further strengthens the case for a lower-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.
The precious metal, which has been under pressure from the sell-off earlier this week, was further weighed down by the latest inflation report, which dampened market optimism about a September monetary policy pivot.
The US consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in July, compared to a 2.9% increase in the same month last year, according to the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Tai Wong, an independent metals trader in New York, said that a September rate cut was a certainty. However, the latest data disappointed the market by reinforcing the case for a 25 basis point cut, instead of the expected 50 basis points.
$AUDNZD TAKES A DUMP [SELL] INTO MARKET CLOSE.Much-needed price correction for the pair after strong deviation. Expecting the midline between 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci levels. I’ve gathered at least five confirmations on four different higher time frames, with smaller time frames only confirming further. ¡Buena suerte, mi gente!
Long term strategy when trading goldAfter gold fell and corrected from the 0.618% Fibonacci extension stage to $2,455, as readers stated in yesterday`s edition, gold has now recovered barely and misplaced its bearish corrective momentum.
In the short, medium and lengthy time period, the technical shape in addition to the fashion continue to be bullish. With gold breaking above the 0.618% Fibonacci stage, it'll open a brand new uptrend. With the short-time period goal at $2,484 (all-time high) and above the preliminary fee of $2,500-2,505.
As lengthy as gold stays above the $2,455-$2,448 area, it'll nevertheless have a bullish short-time period technical outlook and the principle fashion is highlighted through the fee channel and the principle aid stage is highlighted through the EMA21.
For the day, the technical outlook for gold charges stays bullish because the Relative Strength Index continues to be a ways from oversold territory, suggesting there's nevertheless room for boom ahead. And the tremendous fee tiers may be indexed once more as follows.
Support: 2,455 - 2,448 USD
Resistance: 2,471 -2,484-2,500 USD
XAU price continues to riseThe Fed has signaled it will not wait for inflation to reach 2% before cutting interest rates. However, the US central bank has stressed that it will closely monitor inflation data.
in the context of the US sending more troops and military equipment to the Middle East in response to the possibility of Iran attacking Israel, while the conflict in Ukraine poses new risks.
XAU continues to increase from last weekend's sessionAt the beginning of the trading session in the US market, the world gold price continued to increase from the session at the end of last week. The US unemployment benefit application report released in the middle of last week brought optimism to the stock and gold markets.
After a quiet week, the world gold market is about to receive a series of important information that can affect the direction of the precious metal in the short term. Specifically, the producer price index, consumer price index, retail sales in July, weekly unemployment benefit applications, housing starts and building permits in the US in July, ...
Marc Chandler, General Director of Bannockburn Global Forex, said that the information that the market is most looking forward to is the July consumer price index report, which is likely to remain unchanged compared to the same period last year. This helps the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in September.
XAUUSD 4HR Update XAUUSD 4HR Update
Following the previous analysis we correctly identified the market pivot off the key psych quarter zone and saw a bullish surge back up into the 2400s where price now sits at 2427.45, Going forwards I foreseeing price to make a push for the key level of 2450 and complete the next phase section of 2500 target.
Check out my last update analysis to see how we progressed and leave a comment with your thoughts and ideas below :)
#XAUUSD/H4 GOLD had good trading on the second dayAsia-Europe session analysis on 12/08/2024:
Gold forms a double bottom at 238x and experienced a rebound last week. Currently, gold is rising in the short term; however, technically, gold is expected to correct deeply in the near future.
The main trading trend for today is BUY. Key price levels to watch: 2400-2405; 2407-2411 and 2455-2460. Resistance zone at 2433-2437 is unlikely to be today’s peak. Attention should be given to the 2455-2460 zone for a potential long-term sell order.
Recommended Orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 2407-2411
SL 2405
TP 2414 - 2430 - 2455.
Plan 2: BUY XAUUSD zone 2403-2405
SL 2399
TP 2410 - 2430 - 2437 - 2455.
Plan 3: SELL XAUUSD zone 2457-2460
SL 2463
TP 2450 - 2437 - 2400 - open.
Investors hope gold will increase in the coming time.Most industry experts predict that gold prices will remain flat. Most retail traders expect gold prices to rise.
The market will be paying attention to some notable economic news this week, including the July PPI, July CPI, July retail sales and weekly jobless claims, the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey for August, etc.
The market is currently focused entirely on the prospect of a September interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Gold investors will pay close attention to the Fed's speaker list this week.
XAU Rising Strongly After Deep FallGold (XAU/USD) rose on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak, although it lacked momentum and remained below $2,400 heading into the European session. Investors remain concerned about the economic slowdown in China and the possibility of a US recession. This, coupled with escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, should act as a supportive factor for gold. Moreover, expectations of more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the US dollar on the defensive, confirming the positive outlook for the non-yielding precious metal.
XAU increased sharply in today's US sessionDespite a slight decline from the early morning, the yellow metal has pared its gains from the day amid selling pressure amid concerns that demand will be sluggish in the coming period. Investors’ concerns were heightened as the official report released on Wednesday showed that the People’s Bank of China continued to hold steady in July.
Thus, the bank’s reported gold reserves have remained unchanged for the third consecutive month. According to Krishan Gopaul, senior analyst at the World Gold Council, China’s gold holdings remain at 2,264 tonnes and still account for about 5% of its total reserves.
XAU slightly down todayBOCI head of commodities Amelia Xiao Fu said that gold still has some weakness, mainly due to the strength of the US dollar, but the macro environment for gold is relatively positive.
Investors expect central banks to cut interest rates, which will limit the possibility of gold falling, if not push gold prices to new record highs. He expects gold prices to reach $2,500 in the short term, said Forex.com market analyst Fawad Razaqzada.
XAU is sideways todayForecasting the gold price trend, although gold has had two consecutive sessions of price decline, experts said that the decline of gold has been significantly limited thanks to expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September and concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
XAU falls as investors sell offGold prices fell today (August 6) as investors continued to sell gold to cover losses in the stock market. Markets are also continuing to feel the negative impact of the cancellation of the "yen carry trade" as well as concerns about a recession in the US and globally, reducing demand for precious metals.
Stock markets plunged from Asia to North America as investors fled riskier assets while betting that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will need to cut interest rates quickly to boost US economic growth.
XAU plunged this morningGold prices “plummeted” at the start of the week because of robust promoting stress as traders persevered to promote gold to cowl losses withinside the inventory marketplace. The inventory marketplace “wobbled” on the cease of ultimate week as recession fears unfold following a disappointing jobs report. The S&P 500 fell almost 4%, with maximum of the promote-off taking place on Thursday and Friday. The Nasdaq ended the week down almost 5% from its excessive and formally entered undergo marketplace territory.
Although taken into consideration a secure haven in instances of uncertainty, specialists say gold become now no longer proof against the promote-off on Monday as traders dumped property throughout the board.
Despite the pointy fall in gold prices, analysts stated gold, which has won extra than 16% this year, may want to regain momentum withinside the future, because of chronic financial and political uncertainties in addition to expectancies of a price reduce via way of means of the United States Federal Reserve, which could gain bullion.