Price on the EUR/USD is likely to break the 1.05 lvlThe EUR/USD is pushing lower because of Friday's USD PCE coming out higher then expected, and the previous reading revised higher. This is supposedly the FED's favorite measure of inflation, which gives the FED additional evidence to increase rate hikes. I do not think that the FED will be inclined to raise rates in the March meeting by 50 basis points. It will likely stick to 25 basis points. I am holding onto my positions (short side) and I am looking to place a stop at the 1.06 lvl. If price does break 1.05 (which is likely), price will be able to test out the 1.0450 lvl. At this point, I am deciding on whether I want to keep holding or not because I have other pairs I am looking at.
Forexmarket
GBP Short Setup Straight forward short setup for the GBP / USD .
Perhaps this is too obvious but either way i present to you a nice short setup with easy invalidation .
At the target box we have the 200EMA sitting with .618 fib and the point of control of the range *POC
I don't think we go straight down from here although of course that's possible but i would like to see a
reaction at the level provided and then perhaps a move back up to take out those equal highs before the real move down .
With NFP tomorrow perhaps this is a scenario which will play out during this time .
Trade with a clear invalidation and like follow to support me .
Thanks for stopping by
GBP/USD:The pound was blocked, and the bears reacted strongly?The latest data from the United Kingdom show that the number of people employed in the British labor market has increased by 65,000, higher than the expected 52,000, and the unemployment rate remains at 3.7%.But the pace of wage growth has slowed, which is good news for the Bank of England.Because the central bank is seeking to control inflation, this is another factor to be considered at next week's interest rate meeting.On a global scale, the market turmoil after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has led to huge changes in the market's pricing of the central bank's interest rate outlook in the past few trading days.According to CME's Fedwatch tool, there is now a 25% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting.Even the market has begun to digest the expectation that the Fed will turn to interest rate cuts at the end of the year.Under this situation, the pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates may be eased, which will be of great help to resolve the British government's debt.In terms of interest spreads, the British pound will not be pulled too wide by other currencies.As a result, the pound may be able to gain some support from it.
Due to the rebound of the British pound for four consecutive trading days, it has left the original downward trend channel. However, over time, the market fear caused by the US banking crisis has gradually eased. Today, the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded sharply, suppressing the rise of the British pound and driving the British pound to begin to adjust the market. At present, the British pound has the intention of returning to the downward trend channel.However, if the 1.201 position can be supported, it is possible to carry out a short-term restorative rebound on this basis.
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Time to take profits on EURUSD Good morning traders!
Yesterday I shared a trade on EURUSD to sell it since I didn't give it to my customers, today I want to tell you to take your profits since the market is too low and it will come back up later this day I case you're seller. I could catch it this morning with my customers and made some good profit from it. We closed and I want to tell y'all to close before the market comes back up on you.
For more questions don't hesitate to ask!
AUDNZDHello Traders, here is the full analysis for this pair, let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions, the entry will be taken only if all rules of the strategies will be satisfied. I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if the rules of your strategy are satisfied.
The way I told you, you have to trade like this and you will have more profit always and you will not be a loss.
judgment of technical indicators and application skills1. Simple judgment of support and resistance:
Support and resistance levels are the points in the chart that are subjected to continuous upward or downward pressure.The support level is usually the lowest point in all chart patterns (hourly, weekly, or annual), while the resistance level is the highest point (peak)in the chart.When these points show a downward trend, they are recognized as support and resistance.The best time to buy/sell is near the support/resistance level that is not easy to break.Once these levels are broken, they tend to become reverse obstacles.Therefore, in an uptrend market, the broken resistance level may become support for the upward trend; however, in a downtrend market, once the support level is broken, it will turn into resistance.
2. Understanding of lines and channels:
Trend lines are a simple and practical tool in identifying the direction of market trends.The upward straight line is formed by at least two consecutive low points connected.Naturally, the second point must be higher than the first point.The extension of a straight line helps determine the path along which the market will move.Upward trend is a specific method used to identify support lines/levels.On the contrary, the downward line is drawn by connecting two or more points.The variability of trading lines is to some extent related to the number of connection points.However, it is worth mentioning that each point does not have to be too close.A channel is defined as an upward trend line parallel to the corresponding downward trend line.Two lines can represent price upward, downward, or horizontal corridors.The common attribute of a channel that supports the connection point of a trend line should be between the two connection points of its reverse line.
3. Understanding and understanding of the average line:
If you believe in the creed of "trend is your friend" in technical analysis, then the moving average will benefit you a lot.The moving average shows the average price at a specific time in a specific period.They are called "moves" because they are measured at the same time and reflect the latest average.
One of the shortcomings of moving averages is that they lag behind the market, so they are not necessarily a sign of a trend shift.To solve this problem, using a shorter period moving average of 5 or 10 days will better reflect recent price movements than a 40 or 200-day moving average.Alternatively, the moving average can also be used by combining two average lines of different time spans.Regardless of the use of 5 and 10-day moving averages, or 40- and 200-day moving averages, buy signals are usually detected when the shorter-term average crosses the longer-term average upward.In contrast, a sell signal will be prompted when the shorter-term average crosses the longer-term average downwards.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Who Moves the Forex Market | Forex Market Players
Forex is the largest market in the world, with the tremendous daily trading volumes and millions of market participants.
In this educational article, we will discuss who moves that market and who are its 6 the most significant players.
1. Governments
Governments tend to set economic goals and influence the markets with their political decision. They define the course of their nations, issuing policies and imposing regulations.
2. Central banks
Central banks implement the decisions of the governments, applying multiple instruments:
Central banks control the emission of the money, shifting the supply and demand.
They control interest rates and define the credit policies.
Central banks control the international trade and sustain the exchange rates of the national currencies by interventions and handling the foreign currencies and gold reserves.
3. Commercial banks
Commercial banks handle the international transactions.
Over 70% of total Forex Market transactions directly refers to the actives of commercial banks.
Commercial banks are also involved in speculation activities, benefiting from market fluctuations by relying on various strategies.
4. Corporations
Corporation is the business that operates in multiple countries.
With the constant capital flow between its branches and counterparts, corporations are permanently involved in a currency exchange.
Also, corporations usually hedge currency risks, storing their liquidity in particular currencies.
5. Investment funds
By investment funds, we imply the international or domestic professional money management companies. Dealing with hundreds of millions of investments, they quite often are operating on Forex market, buying foreign assets, speculating and hedging.
6. Retail traders
The main goal of retails traders and speculators is to make short terms profits from their transactions on the market.
Typically, the activities of traders constitute a relatively small portion of total trading volumes.
Knowing which forces move the forex market, you can better understand how it works. The spot prices that you see on the charts reflect the sentiment of all the above-mentioned participants.
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GBP rebounded strongly, beware of traps!GBP/USD
GBP/USD continued its technical correction rebound in the short period and climbed above 1.190.However, from the daily line, although GBP/USD has rebounded significantly, it is not enough to change the daily short trend, indicating that the overall trend of GBP/USD at a large level is still weak.In the 4-hour chart, the short-term sustained rebound caused the market to get rid of the weak downward channel and return to the previous level of the channel. Although it still belongs to the downward channel as a whole, the short-term weak market has been technically improved.
At present, there has been a decline in the rebound market, which proves that the upward momentum is gradually being consumed, but as long as it can be maintained at the position above 0.190, it is possible to challenge the position above 0.196. If 0.190 cannot be supported, the pair may fall again and touch the boundary position of the descending channel line.
In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
On The 1.60 level is holding on the GBP/CAD, but for how long?Price on GBP/CAD is pushing a little lower, but is still trading above the 1.60 level. The GBP/USD was able to break lower, below the 1.20 support and was able to hold. It is only a matter of time before the GBP/CAD breaks lower and I still think price is going to be able to do that. It will take about 6 months for this to happen, but in the meantime if price just stagnates, that would be great (I have a trade on this pair).
Will crude oil continue to rebound strongly? Long or short?In the crude oil market, due to the larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and bullish expectations for Chinese demand, concerns that the Federal Reserve's more aggressive interest rate increases will slow economic growth and weaken oil consumption have limited the rebound in oil prices, so the crude oil market is still uncertain.
Judging from the trend, the current crude oil has rebounded strongly in the short term after fluctuating at a low level, but it is not enough to change the daily shorting situation, indicating that the overall trend of crude oil at a large level is still weak.Although the short-term rebound is shown on the 2-hour level chart, the short-term rebound is quite strong, but the pressure is heavy above, and the short-term continuity is a problem. It may continue slightly, but it is difficult to say how much room there is to continue without breaking the low range for the time being.Short-term may be accompanied by resistance loops, the market has returned to operate within the weak range.
In terms of strategy, yesterday's thinking was also high-level shorting, but today's thinking is still high-level, supplemented by low-level long-selling.
Crude oil is shorted near 77.8-78, and the first target is near 75.5
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XAUUSD:How should we seize the opportunity to operateDue to the hawkish remarks of Fed Chairman Powell, it may mean that the Fed will not only raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next two meetings, but may also raise interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the next three meetings, or even 50 basis points. It is also possible.Gold fell sharply and fell below the 1820 line, and is currently trading near the 1816 line.
Judging from the 4-hour level chart, the trend of the K-line has been continuously overcast and the trend is weak; however, it should be noted that the current price is close to the early support band, and the short-term deviation rate is also somewhat large, which may mean that gold's room for decline will not be too large; in the trend of the small-level cycle, the downward trend of gold has also begun to slow down, and there is a high probability that there will be a trend of adjustment and repair at the end of the market; therefore, you can consider looking for long-term opportunities near 1815.
Operation: It is recommended to pay attention to multi-order opportunities near 1815, stop loss at 1813, and look at 1825-1830 at the target point.
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Fluke is the culprit of increasing risks, while hesitation is the culprit of missed opportunities.Patience is the key to victory, confidence is the guarantee of success, and I hope everything will go well in the coming time.
OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD
Short GBPJPY position in the near term
There is a clear signal of a short-term top in GBPJPY, and there is a demand for a pullback. Short-term trading can be positioned for short positions.
Personal trading suggestion: Enter a short position at 163.550-164.000 with a target of 161.200.
I have in-depth research on futures products such as cryptocurrencies, foreign exchange, stocks, gold, and crude oil. I also update daily trading strategies. Thank you for your attention and likes. Friends who have questions can leave me a message in a timely manner, and I will provide the most reliable advice to help you.
Will the NZDUSD be able to hit the 0.70 lvl this Year?This pair is one of my top focuses for this year and I almost let it slip by. After conducting my R/A this weekend I came to find out that the New Zealand economy might start over heating and the RBNZ is possibly going to be in a position to keep rising rates. The RBNZ is looking to raise rates to around 5.5% (at least that is what is projected). The data on New Zealand is:
Annual GDP: 6.4% and ranging
Unemployment: 3.4% and declining
Wage Growth: 4.3% and rising
Inflation Rate: 7.2% and rising
Industrial Production: 16.1% and rising
Manufacturing PMI: 50.8 and ranging
Retail Sales: -4% and declining
Housing Index: 186.2791 and declining
The technicals are also showing a double bottom and a descending wedge which adds to the probability that price might push higher.
Sentiment is also pushing more towards neutral for the USD as there are starting to be increased talks about the FED slowing down on interest rate hikes and being more dovish.
The Fundamentals, Technicals, and Sentiment are lining up which push my conviction lvl around the 60% lvl which got me to start planning on how to build a decent position on this pair. I have a position on this pair already at 10k (I am look to build to a standard lot for now).
This is what I am look at. If price stays above the 0.60 lvl, then it is highly likely that price will push higher. If price pushes below the 0.60 lvl by the end of March, then I don't think I am wrong, but I would think that I was too early. I would take my loss and retrograde for now and then come back in. My objective is to build a position up on the NZD before the 0.65 lvl (possibly around the 0.63 lvl, if lower, that would be ideal). If I am able to get into a full position before the 0.65 lvl, see price push higher to 0.68, and place a stop around the 0.65 lvl, I would be in a good spot to just hold onto the NZD and see if it pushes up higher.
If this doesn't work, like always, back to the drawing board to update my plan accordingly. But I think this is a high probability trade that will last for a while.
Like always, these are my thoughts and this is how I trade. Please come up with you own plans and ideas and ways to trade. This can be extremely risky and with the uncertainty in the markets, I could potentially blow up my account if I am not careful. Y'all have some great trading out there.
GBPAUD UPDATE
Potential shorts lining up for a NY session move, on the 15m TF we can see price is over extended to the upside sooner or later the institutions that drove the price up will take profits on there longs and this will create a retracement move. We can also Identify how the market is testing a psychological level of supply at 1.8000 in confluence with a 4H zone and High of previous week.
There are two Beautiful Asia session imbalance's to the downside with gaps to potentially fill giving us more confidence to expect the bearish move soon. For entry confirmations I am looking for price to take out the sell side liquidity above the current HOD and HOPW then will be monitoring on the 5m TF for potential short entry confirmations.
Remember this is an idea based on current PA if we dont get ENTRY CONFIRMATIONS we will not take the potential setup.
USOUL OUTLOOKThis week NFP release will be the center of attention for future interest rate release from the federal reserve.
With price currently within indecision, we might as well be expecting a breakout or a rejection from supply at 81.87 due to newly weekly mitigation at 73.70 which buyers have shown momentum in the last seven days.
If price fails to break 80.53- 81.87 range, I see selling opportunity back to major support at 77.43 where I will be anticipating for long if validated back to supply at 81.87
If 77.43 invalidates as support I see further decline towards 73.70- 73.18 range.