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GBP/CAD Potential Pullback Amid ECB's Tightening StanceFollowing comments from ECB's Lagarde after the policy meeting, the Pound Sterling Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) has recovered its highs just short of 1.7000. Lagarde stated that the ECB would not be "pausing" in its tightening as inflation remained high, which was in line with the ECB's accompanying statement that highlighted evidence of persisting inflation pressures in the Eurozone. Lagarde further stated that the ECB policy was not tied to the Fed's policy, suggesting that the ECB will not hesitate to raise rates in the future even when the Fed has paused, allowing the Euro to strengthen. From a technical perspective, the GBP/CAD has reached 1.7145 and then experienced a retracement, with the RSI showing a divergence on the H4 timeframe. Our idea is to look for a pullback between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci area, where a dynamic trendline is present and has previously acted as support for a pullback.
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/CAD: ECB Hikes Rates Amid High Inflation OutlookToday, the ECB increased rates by a further 25bp, in response to the high inflation outlook which is expected to persist for an extended period of time. This rate hike was in line with most expectations and the smallest increase in the current tightening cycle. The ECB's tone has become more cautious, as the statement suggests that the past rate increases are strongly affecting the financing and monetary conditions in the euro area, but it is still uncertain how this will translate to the real economy. The first part of the statement shows that the ECB's previous decisions have had an impact, while the latter part does not specify the extent to which further tightening is required. Although the EUR/CAD made a Double TOP, it is still in a bullish trend on the H4 and Daily timeframes. Therefore, our idea is to look for an opportunity to buy EUR around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which is in line with a support area and the presence of a dynamic trendline that can act as dynamic support. If the price goes below 1.4600, it would indicate a clear change in the trend.
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1100 ahead of ECB policy decisionThe EUR/USD is currently facing initial resistance at the psychological level of 1.1100, which is also a static level and the mid-point of the ascending trend. However, on the downside, the 50% Fibonacci level at the 1.1020 area could act as the next support level for the price to experience a pullback before continuing its bullish trend. In terms of fundamentals, the EUR/USD has gained bullish momentum and achieved its highest daily close in over a year above 1.1050 on Wednesday. The European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its policy decisions later today, and if its outlook highlights a widening policy divergence with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the pair could extend its rally. On the other hand, the USD may gain momentum if the weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the first-quarter Unit Labor Costs data from the US show a big decline in jobless claims alongside a strong wage inflation reading, which could limit EUR/USD's upside. During the Fed's recent policy meeting, it raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to the range of 5-5.25%, as expected. However, Powell's comments during the post-meeting press conference failed to convince markets, and the probability of another rate hike in June is virtually 0. The ECB is forecast to raise its key rates by 25 basis points, which could provide a boost to the EUR/USD if it opts for a significant hawkish surprise. Nonetheless, a deep correction could occur if the ECB refrains from committing to another rate increase at the next meeting.
by FOREXN1
18
GOLD Corrects After All-Time High, USD Index Faces HeadwindsFollowing a fresh all-time high at $2,079.76, gold prices have undergone a sharp correction to nearly $2,035.00, triggered by profit-booking after the Federal Reserve's altered language on interest rate guidance. As the precious metal experienced solid gains, the Fed hiked critical rates consecutively by 25 basis points to 5.00-5.25%. The next support level for a pullback is at the 50% Fibonacci level around the $2020.00 price level and the 61.8% level below $2010.00. These levels may be reached in case of a deep retracement, and as per our long-term forecast, the previous symmetrical triangle broken in the last two days should retest this area, resulting in a strong rejection area. The USD Index is attempting to defend its immediate support level of 101.07, although the downside is currently preferred due to various headwinds such as renewed US banking crisis and debt ceiling issues. US President Joe Biden has no interest in raising the debt ceiling at the expense of his spending initiatives. Additionally, US banking jitters have resurfaced with Bloomberg reporting that PacWest Bancorp is considering strategic options, including a potential sale.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
21
GBP/USD struggles to hold above 1.2600 as USD gains momentumThe GBP/USD pair reached its highest level since June 2022, but failed to sustain the momentum. Despite a modest intraday uptick, the pair struggled to maintain its position near the 1.2600 mark and retreated during the early European session. Currently, spot prices are trading just above the mid-1.2500s and have remained mostly unchanged for the day. The pair is expected to experience a retracement, with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels serving as potential areas of support around 1.2520 and 1.2530. If the price drops below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, a reversal may be in store for the Cable. The Greenback has seen some gains, as it recovers from its intraday losses and bounces back from a one-week low. This rebound in the USD has acted as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. Investors are showing caution due to the looming recession risks, which have also affected the equity markets. This has led to a safe-haven bid for the USD. Despite this, the USD's gains are being capped by declining US bond yields and the Fed's less hawkish outlook.
by FOREXN1
12
GOLD Price Surges on US Debt Ceiling Concerns - READ!As per our previous forecast, we emphasized the importance of patience when trading GOLD, and finally, the price has broken out of the upper dynamic trendline of the symmetrical triangle, causing the price to skyrocket in a long setup. The price of GOLD is now looking to surpass the HKEX:2 ,020.00 mark, and its appeal has increased due to concerns regarding the US debt ceiling. An extension of the debt ceiling could result in a downgrade of the long-term outlook for the US. Currently, the GOLD price is heading towards HKEX:2 ,048.75 after a breakout from the symmetrical triangle. During the Asian trading session, the GOLD price (XAU/USD) is showing strength in breaking the immediate resistance of HKEX:2 ,020.00. This precious metal has shifted to a bullish trajectory as mounting concerns for the United States are observed. The US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently warned that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June if the administration fails to raise the debt ceiling and will face problems in making payments. US President Joe Biden is declining negotiations with the US House of Senate Joseph McCarthy as Republicans demand significant cuts in the President's spending initiatives. However, concerns that the US economy won't be able to make payments smoothly may force President Biden to come to the table for debt ceiling talks.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
26
EUR/USD Continues Recovery Despite Challenges - READ !The EUR/USD currency pair has followed our forecast from yesterday precisely. It has seen an increase in buying activity, driving the price to a new intraday high and continuing the recovery from the previous day's session. However, Euro pair buyers are facing challenges posed by mixed Eurozone inflation figures, as well as uncertainties surrounding the role of both the Fed and the ECB in the recent banking fallouts. Additionally, fears of a US default and anxiety surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting serve as additional obstacles for buyers. Nevertheless, traders can stay entertained by monitoring the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI, as they may provide clues for the Fed's policy pivot. Despite these challenges, the EUR/USD pair is enjoying the broad weakness of the US Dollar, and is preparing for the key FOMC monetary policy meeting announcement early Wednesday. By the press time, it has picked up further buying momentum and refreshed its intraday high near 1.1025. Despite mixed Eurozone inflation data and updates from the ECB, the Euro pair is extending its previous recovery from a short-term support line. This could be attributed to unimpressive US statistics and doubts about the Fed's responsibility for the recent banking turmoil.
Long
by FOREXN1
14
Bullish GBP/NZD Trend: Potential Long Position OpportunityDuring the previous trading session, the GBP/NZD currency pair displayed a robust bullish rally, driving the price to the notable level of 2.0400. However, following this upward movement, the price has initiated a retracement and pulled back to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Interestingly, this area coincides with the presence of strong support at 2.000 and the RSI indicator showing oversold conditions. As a result, swing traders might consider taking a long position aligned with the prevailing uptrend, as clearly evident in higher timeframes. Considering these technical factors, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend, with a pullback in this retracement area serving as a viable entry point for traders to take advantage of the upward momentum.
Long
by FOREXN1
16
EUR/USD: Interest Rate Hike Expectations - Technical AnalysisEUR/USD is approaching 1.1050 following a recovery, supported by a drop in the USD Index after a short-lived rebound. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to maintain pressure on US CPI. However, investors hold differing views on the pace of interest rate hikes that the European Central Bank will adopt. On the technical side, yesterday's price rebounded from the dynamic trendline at 1.0970, with the next resistance or target point at 1.1050 and 1.1100. Alternatively, should the price reverse and dip below 1.0950, the next support level would be at 1.0850.
by FOREXN1
9
EUR/USD Drops as USD Strengthens during HolidaysEarly Monday, the EUR/USD reached a new intraday low as the bears targeted the 1.1000 round figures. The US Dollar gained strength due to sluggish market activity caused by holidays in many bourses. Keep an eye on the First Republic bidding results to join in on the hawkish Fed bets that may further pressure the EUR/USD before the crucial monetary policy meetings. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is approaching the previous support area at 1.09600, where it may encounter a demand zone and rebound to continue growing towards the target of 1.1100
by FOREXN1
15
GBP/USD Targets 1.2600 Amid US Recovery and UK InflationThe GBP/USD currency pair is currently attempting to breach the significant resistance level of 1.2600, despite a notable recovery in the US Dollar Index. The US economy has exhibited robustness in consumer spending on essential goods and services, thereby increasing the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Conversely, inflationary pressures in the UK persist, with rising food prices and a shortage of labor contributing to the trend. While the Cable underwent a minor correction after failing to maintain levels above 1.2580, its decline was significantly lower than the recovery of the US Dollar Index, indicating that the Pound Sterling is displaying resilience. From a technical perspective, the price opened with a retracement, potentially leading to a pullback to the prior support area before advancing towards the 1.2600 resistance level.
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD Rebounds on US Inflation Surge, Eyes 1.1186 ResistanceThe EUR/USD pair bounced back from its daily low and regained the 1.1000 level after US data was released. This occurred even though the US core PCE, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation, showed a rise of 4.6% in March, which is the same as in February. The high inflation in the US is likely to warrant higher rates, thus driving the EUR/USD pair higher. Furthermore, Wall Street showed solid gains during the mid-day of the New York session, and the US Department of Commerce also revealed that the annual figures for inflation slowed from 5.1% to 4.2%, even though the headline figure slowed to 0.1% MoM, less than the previous month's 0.3%. Initially, the EUR/USD pair dipped to its daily low but then gained 80 pips before stabilizing at its current exchange rates. The technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair shows that it is close to the next strong resistance at 1.1186. This area will be our next target for a long position, and we will wait for the price's reaction before choosing a trade to take.
by FOREXN1
11
USD/CAD Bearish: Technical Analysis Shows Confirmed Short SetupAccording to recent developments, the end of the first quarter was weak, and this, coupled with the negative but temporary effect of the public sector strike on Q2 GDP, could potentially increase the risk of a contraction in economic activity during the second quarter. Despite this, the Bank of Canada remains determined to focus on trying to get and keep inflation and inflation expectations under control, even if it means overlooking the volatility caused by the strike. Although a weakening economy should prevent policymakers from triggering another interest rate hike. As previously predicted, the technical analysis of USD/CAD shows a pullback of the price on the 61.8% Fibonacci area, which is precisely on the resistance level drawn at 1.36500. Following the pullback, the price has started to decline, confirming our short setup idea for this specific currency pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
11
GBP/JPY Hits Yearly High on BoJ's Decision and Bullish SentimentDuring early Friday trading, the GBP/JPY currency pair rallied to a fresh yearly high of 168.15 as market bulls celebrated the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain the status quo. The technical breakout and strong UK sentiment data also contributed to the pair's upward momentum. As widely anticipated, the BoJ retained its benchmark interest rates at -0.10% and defended the current 0.50% band of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. However, the central bank also emphasized its commitment to take additional easing measures as needed and maintain market stability. This reassuring message calmed market concerns about any potential changes under the new governorship. Despite the GBP/JPY's impressive growth, traders should closely monitor the next resistance area between 170.000 and 171.500, where the price may experience a retracement or reversal.
by FOREXN1
6
GOLD investors await breakout or breakdown for clearer directionThe price of gold is currently encountering difficulties breaking through the psychological resistance level of HKEX:2 ,000.00 during the Asian session. The precious metal experienced a significant upsurge on Tuesday, as investors sought refuge in bullions amidst the resurgence of banking apprehensions. Currently, the price of gold is trading within a sideways range, and it is only a breakout or breakdown that will provide further insights into the potential direction of the value. As such, we recommend exercising patience until there is a break of either the support or resistance levels before considering any trading actions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
21
USD/JPY forms bearish H&S reversal pattern on hourly chart.On the hourly chart of USD/JPY, it appears that the price is currently situated at the forefront of a bearish Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern. It is possible that a subsequent move towards the 133.00s may occur. The current sentiment towards risk has declined, and coupled with the decreasing US Treasury yields over a longer-term period, there has been an increase in demand for the Yen. As previously mentioned, the USD/JPY has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern that indicates a reversal, and today, the price has retraced towards the dynamic neckline. As a result, our forecast remains bearish.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
SILVER Consolidates in Triangle Pattern Amidst Uncertain MarketSilver has been maintaining a bullish uptrend, and in the most recent trading session, its price has consolidated within an accumulation Triangle pattern. Traders are currently waiting for a decisive breakout or breakdown of this structure to make informed decisions regarding the next price movement. As of now, the situation is uncertain, and it is advisable to exercise caution and wait for confirmation before entering into any trading positions.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by FOREXN1
14
EUR/USD Faces Resistance Despite Bullish Momentum - LONGThe EUR/USD currency pair has encountered some resistance following its ascent above 1.1060 during the Asian trading session. The loss in upward momentum of the major currency pair has been attributed to a resurgence of the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has made a recovery after reaching a weekly low of 101.20. However, the possibility of a further downtrend is likely given the lack of supportive triggers. Upon conducting technical analysis, the EUR/USD has demonstrated a strong bullish momentum with no observable signs of divergence or a double bottom pattern at present. As a result, our next target for the currency pair is projected to be 1.11000
Long
by FOREXN1
6
USD/JPY Pair Vulnerable Above Support Level - H&S PatternDuring the early European session, the USD/JPY pair is exhibiting vulnerability above the critical support level of 134.00. This is due to selling pressure amidst the anticipated fading of the recovery move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Although the USD Index rebounded after hitting a weekly low of 101.20, the absence of supportive indicators suggests that the recovery move is short-lived. Upon analyzing the 1-hour chart, a Reversal Head & Shoulder pattern is evident in the price action. Our recommendation is to initiate a short trade by entering below the Neckline of the pattern.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
CAD/CHF: Continuing Bearish Trend and Short Setup OpportunitiesThe CAD/CHF currency pair has been caught in a bearish trend since the 4th of April, and this downward trend has persisted, leading to the historical minimum for this pair. Currently, the price movement is not indicating any signs of a reversal or retracement, leaving traders uncertain about where the bearish rally will eventually come to a halt. Across all timeframes, the price continues to exhibit a bearish trend, presenting traders with limited opportunities. Consequently, the best approach for traders is to focus on short setups and continue following the prevailing trend. Given these circumstances, our suggested strategy would be to maintain a bearish outlook and seize any opportunities that arise for short positions. This would allow traders to capitalize on the current market dynamics and potentially earn some gains.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
EUR/USD Shows Signs of Recovery in European Session.In the European session, the EUR/USD pair has been regaining lost ground and currently trades above the 1.1000 level. Despite mixed results from Germany's ZEW Survey, the pair has benefited from the recent weakening of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields. Furthermore, the Euro has been supported by remarks from ECB Wunsch. As we highlighted in our previous analysis, the pair has found support at the 50% Fibonacci level, coinciding with a dynamic trendline, and has subsequently rebounded, reaching our initial take profit level today. We anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend.
Long
by FOREXN1
21
GOLD prices decline on US Dollar strength and Fed tighteningThe price of gold has remained low for a second consecutive day, in response to a slight uptick in the US Dollar. The expectation of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve has bolstered the US Dollar's appeal, causing it to attract buyers on Monday and, consequently, contributing to the decline in gold prices. Market participants now seem to believe that the Fed will continue raising interest rates to combat high inflation in the US, with a 25 basis point increase expected at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in May already fully priced in. Additionally, the Fed funds futures market indicates a low likelihood of another rate hike in June. From a technical standpoint, the price of gold has slightly rebounded today, but it remains within a bearish continuation pattern. Our analysis suggests an imminent bearish movement for the metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
8