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USD/CAD Bearish: Technical Analysis Shows Confirmed Short SetupAccording to recent developments, the end of the first quarter was weak, and this, coupled with the negative but temporary effect of the public sector strike on Q2 GDP, could potentially increase the risk of a contraction in economic activity during the second quarter. Despite this, the Bank of Canada remains determined to focus on trying to get and keep inflation and inflation expectations under control, even if it means overlooking the volatility caused by the strike. Although a weakening economy should prevent policymakers from triggering another interest rate hike. As previously predicted, the technical analysis of USD/CAD shows a pullback of the price on the 61.8% Fibonacci area, which is precisely on the resistance level drawn at 1.36500. Following the pullback, the price has started to decline, confirming our short setup idea for this specific currency pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
11
GBP/JPY Hits Yearly High on BoJ's Decision and Bullish SentimentDuring early Friday trading, the GBP/JPY currency pair rallied to a fresh yearly high of 168.15 as market bulls celebrated the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to maintain the status quo. The technical breakout and strong UK sentiment data also contributed to the pair's upward momentum. As widely anticipated, the BoJ retained its benchmark interest rates at -0.10% and defended the current 0.50% band of the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. However, the central bank also emphasized its commitment to take additional easing measures as needed and maintain market stability. This reassuring message calmed market concerns about any potential changes under the new governorship. Despite the GBP/JPY's impressive growth, traders should closely monitor the next resistance area between 170.000 and 171.500, where the price may experience a retracement or reversal.
by FOREXN1
5
GOLD investors await breakout or breakdown for clearer directionThe price of gold is currently encountering difficulties breaking through the psychological resistance level of HKEX:2 ,000.00 during the Asian session. The precious metal experienced a significant upsurge on Tuesday, as investors sought refuge in bullions amidst the resurgence of banking apprehensions. Currently, the price of gold is trading within a sideways range, and it is only a breakout or breakdown that will provide further insights into the potential direction of the value. As such, we recommend exercising patience until there is a break of either the support or resistance levels before considering any trading actions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
19
USD/JPY forms bearish H&S reversal pattern on hourly chart.On the hourly chart of USD/JPY, it appears that the price is currently situated at the forefront of a bearish Head and Shoulders Reversal Pattern. It is possible that a subsequent move towards the 133.00s may occur. The current sentiment towards risk has declined, and coupled with the decreasing US Treasury yields over a longer-term period, there has been an increase in demand for the Yen. As previously mentioned, the USD/JPY has formed a Head and Shoulders pattern that indicates a reversal, and today, the price has retraced towards the dynamic neckline. As a result, our forecast remains bearish.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
SILVER Consolidates in Triangle Pattern Amidst Uncertain MarketSilver has been maintaining a bullish uptrend, and in the most recent trading session, its price has consolidated within an accumulation Triangle pattern. Traders are currently waiting for a decisive breakout or breakdown of this structure to make informed decisions regarding the next price movement. As of now, the situation is uncertain, and it is advisable to exercise caution and wait for confirmation before entering into any trading positions.
OANDA:XAGUSD
by FOREXN1
13
EUR/USD Faces Resistance Despite Bullish Momentum - LONGThe EUR/USD currency pair has encountered some resistance following its ascent above 1.1060 during the Asian trading session. The loss in upward momentum of the major currency pair has been attributed to a resurgence of the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has made a recovery after reaching a weekly low of 101.20. However, the possibility of a further downtrend is likely given the lack of supportive triggers. Upon conducting technical analysis, the EUR/USD has demonstrated a strong bullish momentum with no observable signs of divergence or a double bottom pattern at present. As a result, our next target for the currency pair is projected to be 1.11000
Long
by FOREXN1
5
USD/JPY Pair Vulnerable Above Support Level - H&S PatternDuring the early European session, the USD/JPY pair is exhibiting vulnerability above the critical support level of 134.00. This is due to selling pressure amidst the anticipated fading of the recovery move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Although the USD Index rebounded after hitting a weekly low of 101.20, the absence of supportive indicators suggests that the recovery move is short-lived. Upon analyzing the 1-hour chart, a Reversal Head & Shoulder pattern is evident in the price action. Our recommendation is to initiate a short trade by entering below the Neckline of the pattern.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
CAD/CHF: Continuing Bearish Trend and Short Setup OpportunitiesThe CAD/CHF currency pair has been caught in a bearish trend since the 4th of April, and this downward trend has persisted, leading to the historical minimum for this pair. Currently, the price movement is not indicating any signs of a reversal or retracement, leaving traders uncertain about where the bearish rally will eventually come to a halt. Across all timeframes, the price continues to exhibit a bearish trend, presenting traders with limited opportunities. Consequently, the best approach for traders is to focus on short setups and continue following the prevailing trend. Given these circumstances, our suggested strategy would be to maintain a bearish outlook and seize any opportunities that arise for short positions. This would allow traders to capitalize on the current market dynamics and potentially earn some gains.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
EUR/USD Shows Signs of Recovery in European Session.In the European session, the EUR/USD pair has been regaining lost ground and currently trades above the 1.1000 level. Despite mixed results from Germany's ZEW Survey, the pair has benefited from the recent weakening of the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields. Furthermore, the Euro has been supported by remarks from ECB Wunsch. As we highlighted in our previous analysis, the pair has found support at the 50% Fibonacci level, coinciding with a dynamic trendline, and has subsequently rebounded, reaching our initial take profit level today. We anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend.
Long
by FOREXN1
20
GOLD prices decline on US Dollar strength and Fed tighteningThe price of gold has remained low for a second consecutive day, in response to a slight uptick in the US Dollar. The expectation of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve has bolstered the US Dollar's appeal, causing it to attract buyers on Monday and, consequently, contributing to the decline in gold prices. Market participants now seem to believe that the Fed will continue raising interest rates to combat high inflation in the US, with a 25 basis point increase expected at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting in May already fully priced in. Additionally, the Fed funds futures market indicates a low likelihood of another rate hike in June. From a technical standpoint, the price of gold has slightly rebounded today, but it remains within a bearish continuation pattern. Our analysis suggests an imminent bearish movement for the metal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY price could potentially decline due to Reversal H&S During the Tokyo session, the USD/JPY pair is attempting to reclaim the immediate resistance of 134.50. This move comes as the new Bank of Japan Governor, Kauo Ueda, emphasizes the importance of maintaining an accommodative monetary policy. Governor Ueda is a staunch advocate for continuing the ultra-loose monetary policy, which has been in place for a decade, on the assumption that Japan's inflation will peak sooner. From a technical standpoint, a reversal Head and Shoulders pattern has emerged on the lower timeframe. If the price breaks below the neckline, currently located around 133.75, the price may decline, and the opportunity to recapture the resistance at 134.50 could be lost.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GASOLINE futures fall to 5-week low on low demand,high inventoryGasoline futures have dropped to a five-week low of $2.6 per gallon, primarily due to an unexpected increase in inventory and a decline in demand. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a decrease in gas demand from 8.936 million to 8.519 million b/d last week. Moreover, the total domestic gasoline stock has increased by 1.3 million bbl, while markets had anticipated a draw of 1.267 million. Additionally, WTI crude prices have been falling since hitting a five-month high in April, amid concerns that a slowdown in global growth could dampen fuel demand. Furthermore, OPEC+ has announced a surprising reduction of output by 1.6 million barrels per day for the remainder of 2023, which may further impact fuel prices. From a technical standpoint, the current price is within a bearish flag on a short continuation pattern. The next potential support area is at $2.0 If the price breaks the dynamic trendline of the channel, we may witness a further drop in gasoline prices.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by FOREXN1
9
Strong Bullish Momentum for EUR/NZD - Potential for Long Setup.The EUR/NZD is currently exhibiting robust bullish momentum, characterized by lower highs and higher highs occurring within a bullish channel. In a recent development, the price underwent a retest of the bullish trendline channel last Friday, followed by a subsequent higher high. Our analysis suggests that this strong momentum of the EUR may persist, with the price potentially reaching the next hurdle in the resistance area of 1.8000 and 1.8050. We are therefore considering a long setup in light of these observations.
Long
by FOREXN1
8
GBP/CHF Rebounds After Dip, Potential for Upside Momentum.The Friday trading session witnessed a downward trend in the GBP/CHF pair, however, from the early North American session onwards, the pair showed a tendency to reverse course and recover some of its earlier losses. On the technical front, the analysis reveals a rebound following the profit-taking event after a recent Double Top formation. There is a possibility of the price gaining new upside momentum and returning to the 1.1300 area.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD:Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Weighs, Amid Inflationary PressureThe NZD/USD was weighed down for the third time this week by the hawkish rhetoric of Federal Reserve officials. While Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker indicated that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, his colleague, Cleveland's Fed President Loretta Mester, suggested that rates should exceed 5% due to high inflationary pressures. Furthermore, economic data from New Zealand has been lacking, with inflation reported lower than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's estimates at 1.2% QoQ, potentially prompting the RBNZ to pause its tightening cycle. At its latest meeting, the RBNZ implemented a hawkish 50 bps hike. As traders prepare for the weekend, the US economic docket will showcase Fed Governor Lisa Cook in the upcoming week. On the technical side, the NZD/USD is currently under Bearish pressure, with a potential support level around the 0.61000 area, which could signal the start of a bullish impulse in price.
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/CAD Pair Falls on Soft Inflation and Stronger USDDuring the first half of the European session on Friday, the NZD/CAD pair experienced significant selling pressure for the second consecutive day, leading to a five-week low. The NZD was particularly affected by the release of domestic consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which were softer than anticipated, resulting in a less hawkish stance by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue raising interest rates, benefiting the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) amidst a softer risk tone. Consequently, the NZD/CAD pair decreased on the last day of the week. Based on technical analysis, there was a breakout of a bearish pattern within a Bearish channel after a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the Dynamic trendline of the upperside of the channel, suggesting a potential AB=CD Pattern of continuation. As a result, it is possible that the NZD/CAD pair will continue to decrease over the next few days.
Short
by FOREXN1
9
GOLD prices continue to rise, staying within bullish channelGold prices have rebounded in a corrective fashion after two weeks of losses and are currently trading within a one-month-old bullish channel, which spans between HKEX:1 ,970 and HKEX:2 ,050. Despite a V-shaped recovery from the support level at HKEX:1 ,970, the price of gold has struggled to surpass the psychological resistance at HKEX:2 ,000. Investors are currently preparing for key US data and events that may affect the price of gold. A confident recovery in gold prices was inspired by the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. From a technical standpoint, the bullish channel in which the price of gold is trading suggests that the upward trend may continue.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
27
EUR/USD: All you need to know in this analysis.The USD is being buoyed by the latest economic report, the Fed’s Beige Book, which revealed that economic activity has remained steady in recent weeks, and that credit conditions have understandably tightened following the banking crisis. Additionally, St. Louis Fed's Bullard has been advocating for further rate hikes to counteract persistent inflation and exaggerated recession fears. The recent strong Q1 earnings reports from major US banks like JP Morgan and BofA have also helped to bolster the USD after the sector's crisis in March. Meanwhile, Euro is receiving support from the expectation that the ECB will pursue interest rate hikes, contingent upon economic data. The health of the region’s banks, as revealed by the ECB Bank Lending Survey (BLS), which is scheduled to be released on May 2, will be a crucial factor in determining whether the ECB proceeds with aggressive rate hikes. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has also emphasized the importance of April's HICP inflation in shaping the outlook on rates. In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD is currently in a robust uptrend, supported by a dynamic trendline acting as support. Following a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the price appears poised to continue its upward trajectory and reach the D point of the AB=CD Fibonacci pattern, indicating a long continuation. As for upcoming data releases, the ECB's minutes, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, and the April Consumer Confidence report will be of particular interest to those tracking the Euro, while Fed commentary, Initial Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing will be the primary releases for the US Dollar.
Long
by FOREXN1
9
GBP/JPY Rebounds on UK Inflation Outlook. Long SetupThe GBP/JPY pair has exhibited a recuperative trend subsequent to hitting a low of 167.36 during the Asian trading session. This upswing can be attributed to the persistent UK inflation, which is compelling the Bank of England to pursue more rate hikes. The UK is experiencing the highest inflation rate among G7 countries, fueled by a scarcity of labor and energy price shocks. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is implementing an expansive monetary policy that includes purchasing government bonds. Our analysis indicates that the price of the GBP/JPY pair has undergone multiple rebounds on the dynamic trendline, and the most recent breakout of the bullish flag confirms that it is moving in the direction of the main trend. Thus, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish rally today.
Long
by FOREXN1
6
GOLD presents bullish opportunity with discount priceGold prices (XAU/USD) are currently exhibiting low volatility after experiencing a recovery phase from 1980.00. However, the yellow metal is struggling to maintain its recovery, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded significantly and successfully defended the crucial support level of 101.65. Investors have allocated their resources into the USD Index due to its safe-haven properties, anticipating the Federal Reserve's (Fed) predicted rate hikes aimed at mitigating stubborn inflation. Given the substantial reduction in US inflation and labor market slackening, this demand for the USD Index appears promising in the short term. Nevertheless, the current price of gold represents a discount scenario, with the metal rebounding on the dynamic trendline in H1, which has previously acted as support. Furthermore, the price remains at a deep Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential opportunity to purchase the metal at a discount.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
21
EUR/USD Direction Unclear ECB Rate Hike Pace Divides InvestorsThe Euro currency is experiencing a lack of clear direction as investors hold conflicting opinions regarding the European Central Bank's (ECB) potential rate hike pace during its May monetary policy meeting. Some investors remain unconvinced that ECB President, Christine Lagarde, will reduce the pace of policy-tightening to 25 basis points (bps) during a time of critical Eurozone inflation. From a technical standpoint, the currency has undergone a second retest of the 50% Fibonacci level after experiencing a pullback to the 61.8% level. This pattern commonly reflects an AB=CD formation, leading to the creation of a new swing high. Today's market developments will be crucial in determining the Euro's direction, and our forecast predicts a long setup.
by FOREXN1
11
GBP/USD Rises on UK CPI Data. Long Scenario.The GBP/USD pair is exhibiting bullish tendencies and has made strides towards the 1.2450 level in the early hours of Wednesday. The latest UK data indicates that the annual core CPI remained steady at 6.2% in March, surpassing the market's anticipated value of 6%, thus contributing to the appreciation of the Pound Sterling. During the opening London session, the Pound experienced a slight retreat, falling to 1.24000. While lower timeframes suggest bearish momentum for the GBP/USD pair, the higher timeframes reflect a strong Pound. Today's market developments will be crucial in determining the Pound's position.
Long
by FOREXN1
5