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GASOLINE futures fall to 5-week low on low demand,high inventoryGasoline futures have dropped to a five-week low of $2.6 per gallon, primarily due to an unexpected increase in inventory and a decline in demand. Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates a decrease in gas demand from 8.936 million to 8.519 million b/d last week. Moreover, the total domestic gasoline stock has increased by 1.3 million bbl, while markets had anticipated a draw of 1.267 million. Additionally, WTI crude prices have been falling since hitting a five-month high in April, amid concerns that a slowdown in global growth could dampen fuel demand. Furthermore, OPEC+ has announced a surprising reduction of output by 1.6 million barrels per day for the remainder of 2023, which may further impact fuel prices. From a technical standpoint, the current price is within a bearish flag on a short continuation pattern. The next potential support area is at $2.0 If the price breaks the dynamic trendline of the channel, we may witness a further drop in gasoline prices.
NYMEX:RB1!Short
by FOREXN1
9
Strong Bullish Momentum for EUR/NZD - Potential for Long Setup.The EUR/NZD is currently exhibiting robust bullish momentum, characterized by lower highs and higher highs occurring within a bullish channel. In a recent development, the price underwent a retest of the bullish trendline channel last Friday, followed by a subsequent higher high. Our analysis suggests that this strong momentum of the EUR may persist, with the price potentially reaching the next hurdle in the resistance area of 1.8000 and 1.8050. We are therefore considering a long setup in light of these observations.
Long
by FOREXN1
9
GBP/CHF Rebounds After Dip, Potential for Upside Momentum.The Friday trading session witnessed a downward trend in the GBP/CHF pair, however, from the early North American session onwards, the pair showed a tendency to reverse course and recover some of its earlier losses. On the technical front, the analysis reveals a rebound following the profit-taking event after a recent Double Top formation. There is a possibility of the price gaining new upside momentum and returning to the 1.1300 area.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD:Hawkish Fed Rhetoric Weighs, Amid Inflationary PressureThe NZD/USD was weighed down for the third time this week by the hawkish rhetoric of Federal Reserve officials. While Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker indicated that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, his colleague, Cleveland's Fed President Loretta Mester, suggested that rates should exceed 5% due to high inflationary pressures. Furthermore, economic data from New Zealand has been lacking, with inflation reported lower than the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's estimates at 1.2% QoQ, potentially prompting the RBNZ to pause its tightening cycle. At its latest meeting, the RBNZ implemented a hawkish 50 bps hike. As traders prepare for the weekend, the US economic docket will showcase Fed Governor Lisa Cook in the upcoming week. On the technical side, the NZD/USD is currently under Bearish pressure, with a potential support level around the 0.61000 area, which could signal the start of a bullish impulse in price.
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/CAD Pair Falls on Soft Inflation and Stronger USDDuring the first half of the European session on Friday, the NZD/CAD pair experienced significant selling pressure for the second consecutive day, leading to a five-week low. The NZD was particularly affected by the release of domestic consumer inflation figures on Thursday, which were softer than anticipated, resulting in a less hawkish stance by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue raising interest rates, benefiting the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) amidst a softer risk tone. Consequently, the NZD/CAD pair decreased on the last day of the week. Based on technical analysis, there was a breakout of a bearish pattern within a Bearish channel after a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the Dynamic trendline of the upperside of the channel, suggesting a potential AB=CD Pattern of continuation. As a result, it is possible that the NZD/CAD pair will continue to decrease over the next few days.
Short
by FOREXN1
9
GOLD prices continue to rise, staying within bullish channelGold prices have rebounded in a corrective fashion after two weeks of losses and are currently trading within a one-month-old bullish channel, which spans between HKEX:1 ,970 and HKEX:2 ,050. Despite a V-shaped recovery from the support level at HKEX:1 ,970, the price of gold has struggled to surpass the psychological resistance at HKEX:2 ,000. Investors are currently preparing for key US data and events that may affect the price of gold. A confident recovery in gold prices was inspired by the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. From a technical standpoint, the bullish channel in which the price of gold is trading suggests that the upward trend may continue.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
29
EUR/USD: All you need to know in this analysis.The USD is being buoyed by the latest economic report, the Fed’s Beige Book, which revealed that economic activity has remained steady in recent weeks, and that credit conditions have understandably tightened following the banking crisis. Additionally, St. Louis Fed's Bullard has been advocating for further rate hikes to counteract persistent inflation and exaggerated recession fears. The recent strong Q1 earnings reports from major US banks like JP Morgan and BofA have also helped to bolster the USD after the sector's crisis in March. Meanwhile, Euro is receiving support from the expectation that the ECB will pursue interest rate hikes, contingent upon economic data. The health of the region’s banks, as revealed by the ECB Bank Lending Survey (BLS), which is scheduled to be released on May 2, will be a crucial factor in determining whether the ECB proceeds with aggressive rate hikes. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has also emphasized the importance of April's HICP inflation in shaping the outlook on rates. In terms of technical analysis, the EUR/USD is currently in a robust uptrend, supported by a dynamic trendline acting as support. Following a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level, the price appears poised to continue its upward trajectory and reach the D point of the AB=CD Fibonacci pattern, indicating a long continuation. As for upcoming data releases, the ECB's minutes, a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde, and the April Consumer Confidence report will be of particular interest to those tracking the Euro, while Fed commentary, Initial Jobless Claims, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing will be the primary releases for the US Dollar.
Long
by FOREXN1
9
GBP/JPY Rebounds on UK Inflation Outlook. Long SetupThe GBP/JPY pair has exhibited a recuperative trend subsequent to hitting a low of 167.36 during the Asian trading session. This upswing can be attributed to the persistent UK inflation, which is compelling the Bank of England to pursue more rate hikes. The UK is experiencing the highest inflation rate among G7 countries, fueled by a scarcity of labor and energy price shocks. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is implementing an expansive monetary policy that includes purchasing government bonds. Our analysis indicates that the price of the GBP/JPY pair has undergone multiple rebounds on the dynamic trendline, and the most recent breakout of the bullish flag confirms that it is moving in the direction of the main trend. Thus, we anticipate a continuation of the bullish rally today.
Long
by FOREXN1
6
GOLD presents bullish opportunity with discount priceGold prices (XAU/USD) are currently exhibiting low volatility after experiencing a recovery phase from 1980.00. However, the yellow metal is struggling to maintain its recovery, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded significantly and successfully defended the crucial support level of 101.65. Investors have allocated their resources into the USD Index due to its safe-haven properties, anticipating the Federal Reserve's (Fed) predicted rate hikes aimed at mitigating stubborn inflation. Given the substantial reduction in US inflation and labor market slackening, this demand for the USD Index appears promising in the short term. Nevertheless, the current price of gold represents a discount scenario, with the metal rebounding on the dynamic trendline in H1, which has previously acted as support. Furthermore, the price remains at a deep Fibonacci retracement, indicating a potential opportunity to purchase the metal at a discount.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
23
EUR/USD Direction Unclear ECB Rate Hike Pace Divides InvestorsThe Euro currency is experiencing a lack of clear direction as investors hold conflicting opinions regarding the European Central Bank's (ECB) potential rate hike pace during its May monetary policy meeting. Some investors remain unconvinced that ECB President, Christine Lagarde, will reduce the pace of policy-tightening to 25 basis points (bps) during a time of critical Eurozone inflation. From a technical standpoint, the currency has undergone a second retest of the 50% Fibonacci level after experiencing a pullback to the 61.8% level. This pattern commonly reflects an AB=CD formation, leading to the creation of a new swing high. Today's market developments will be crucial in determining the Euro's direction, and our forecast predicts a long setup.
by FOREXN1
13
GBP/USD Rises on UK CPI Data. Long Scenario.The GBP/USD pair is exhibiting bullish tendencies and has made strides towards the 1.2450 level in the early hours of Wednesday. The latest UK data indicates that the annual core CPI remained steady at 6.2% in March, surpassing the market's anticipated value of 6%, thus contributing to the appreciation of the Pound Sterling. During the opening London session, the Pound experienced a slight retreat, falling to 1.24000. While lower timeframes suggest bearish momentum for the GBP/USD pair, the higher timeframes reflect a strong Pound. Today's market developments will be crucial in determining the Pound's position.
Long
by FOREXN1
5
USD/JPY Pair Retracts from 5-Week High, Shows Bearish PatternThe USD/JPY pair has retreated from its almost five-week high, which was around the 134.60 region earlier on Tuesday. During the mid-European session, the pair continued its steady intraday descent. Spot prices have now fallen below the 134.15 mark in the last hour, which has caused a significant decline in the previous day's gains and put an end to a two-day winning streak. Our analysis suggests that the USD/JPY pair is still within a Bearish Channel, with the price rebounding from both the upper and lower sides of the dynamic trendline. Furthermore, the trend in the Daily Timeframe remains bearish. Consequently, we anticipate a short impulse towards the lower side of the channel.
Short
by FOREXN1
5
GOLDPushes Back Bearish Bias, Looks Bullish. LONG Despite facing some recent struggles, the bulls of XAU/USD have managed to push back against the bearish bias that had dominated the market over the past two days. This has been driven by a retreat in the United States Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has eased to 102.00, with the 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields experiencing mild losses of around 3.60% and 4.18%, respectively, at the time of writing. As described yesterday, the price of gold underwent a deep retracement and formed a double bottom, which was in confluence with the dynamic trendline that acted as support. The bias for gold is currently long, and it appears that the price is bullish in almost all timeframes. As such, we are anticipating a continuation of the long trend. It is important to continue monitoring market trends and conditions, as they can change rapidly and impact the trajectory of the price.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
20
GOLD Bullish Reversal on 78.6% FIBO Level and Dynamic Trendline.During the Asian session, the gold price XAU/USD appears to be susceptible above the psychological barrier of HKEX:2 ,000.00. Although the precious metal had initially shown signs of recovery after reaching a low of HKEX:1 ,992.50 over a four-day period, the upside movement remains limited due to the bullish outlook for the US Dollar Index (DXY). Our analysis indicates the possibility of a new long impulse for gold after it bounces back from the 78.6% Fibonacci Level in conjunction with the dynamic trendline. However, if the price drops below the first Fibo leg, we will consider a potential trend reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
21
EUR/USD in Correction Mode: Potential Pullback Ahead.The EUR/USD currency pair has witnessed a decline in its value and subsequently bounced back from the 1.0975 region. Over the past week, the EUR/USD has been retreating from its recent highs in the proximity of 1.1100. This drop can be attributed to the correction in the upside movement of the dollar. As of now, the price movement of the EUR/USD is expected to continue to follow the dynamics of the dollar closely. It is also expected to be influenced by the diverging intentions of the Fed and ECB banks regarding potential interest rate changes. Despite the hawkish stance of the ECB, which supports further rate hikes, there seems to be a loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region, which contrasts this view. Our analysis suggests that the EUR/USD might experience a pullback in the 50%-61.8% Fibonacci area before setting up for a new long position. However, if the price falls below the 78.6% Fibonacci level, it could indicate a short entry opportunity.
by FOREXN1
12
GBP/JPY Faces Bearish Chart Formation with Mild Gains: AnalysisAt the start of the London trading session on Monday, GBP/JPY shows a slight increase in value, hovering around 166.50. However, the cross-currency pair is facing a challenge in maintaining its upward momentum over the past four days, as it is currently caught in a bearish chart pattern, known as the Head and Shoulders pattern. If the dynamic trendline of the pattern, referred to as the "Neckline," is broken, this could confirm a downside trend for the pair. However, if the price manages to rise above the level of the Right Shoulder, it may indicate a long setup.
by FOREXN1
5
EUR/USD: All You Need to Know for Next WeekThe markets are sending mixed signals in the midst of an uncertain economic outlook. Even central bankers seem uncertain about what to do next. However, recent economic data from the US indicates that the economy is slowing down and inflation is decreasing. Interestingly, there were no banking failures this week. On Friday, the US Dollar rebounded strongly, erasing some of its weekly losses. However, despite this positive development, the overall trend for the dollar remains bearish. Experts predict that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely raise interest rates one last time in May, before initiating a long pause, followed by rate cuts. The bond market also seems to suggest that a recession is on the horizon, with lower interest rates expected by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD exchange rate rose for the week, reaching a year-high above 1.1000. Although the trend is still bullish, some signs of exhaustion are starting to emerge. Next week's Eurozone PMI data could prove critical for the European Central Bank's (ECB) future monetary policy decisions. While the market currently anticipates that the ECB will raise interest rates further, weak PMI numbers could lead to a revision of this outlook for the second half of the year.
by FOREXN1
7
GOLD Price Holds Steady at 13-Month High Amid Fed Policy TalksThe gold price (XAU/USD) continues to hold steady at its highest level since March 2022, reaching HKEX:2 ,040 early on Friday in Asia. The precious metal is seeking more clues to sustain its recent upward trend towards the record high of HKEX:2 ,075, which was reached in 2020. Despite recent inaction, XAU/USD is benefiting from a softer US Dollar due to weaker US inflation signals and talk of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy pivot. These factors have been supported by the latest data and events. The recession concerns and positive news from China, one of the world's largest XAU/USD consumers, are also contributing to the gold price's upward momentum. The immediate direction of the gold price will depend on key data such as US Retail Sales, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and Consumer Inflation Expectations. Traders will be watching these indicators closely to gauge the future movement of XAU/USD.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
22
EUR/USD Targets 1.1100 as Fed and ECB Uncertainty LoomsAs the risk-on sentiment gains strength, EUR/USD is targeting the critical resistance level of 1.1100, while the Federal Reserve is expected to reassess its plan for further rate hikes due to a softening of the US CPI and PPI and a more relaxed labor market. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is divided over the pace of policy-hiking needed to curb core inflation. The USD Index has been declining, and EUR/USD is on track for its seventh consecutive bullish weekly close. In the early European session, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1070, with expectations that the currency pair will continue its upward journey towards the round-level resistance of 1.1100. This is due to the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggling to maintain its downside momentum, remaining in the hands of the bears on Thursday, after the Producer Price Index (PPI) report for the United States showed higher-than-expected softening. This has strengthened the need to pause the policy-tightening cycle earlier than previously anticipated.
Long
by FOREXN1
12
USD/JPY Bears Eye Downward Trend as US Dollar Faces PressureThe current market for USD/JPY is dominated by the bears, who are eagerly anticipating a continuation of the downward trend. At this crucial moment, the trendline support is highly vulnerable. As Tokyo traders enter the market on Friday, the price of USD/JPY remains stagnant, resting below a significant resistance area near 132.70 on the 4-hour charts. The US Dollar is facing pressure, mainly due to the week's data that has led to the belief that the Federal Reserve will pause in its tightening policy campaign, with just one last rate hike scheduled for May. The primary focus of the market has been on the inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease from 6% in February to 5% in March. Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, which was released on Thursday, also indicated a continued decrease in inflationary pressures, with a 0.5% drop last month. Over the twelve months leading to March, the PPI increased 2.7%, representing the smallest year-on-year rise since January 2021, following a 4.9% increase in February. In the event that the price breaks out of the dynamic trendline, we can expect to see a further pushdown in the price, moving in a downward direction.
by FOREXN1
7
GOLD: Promising Long Setup, Anticipated Bullish Surge Ahead!Gold prices skyrocketed following the release of US inflation data, which turned out to be below market expectations. XAU/USD surged from HKEX:2 ,007/oz to HKEX:2 ,028, achieving the highest level in six days. The US Labor Department disclosed on Wednesday that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% MoM in March, missing the market consensus of 0.3%. The annual rate also slowed down from 6% to 5%, falling below the market consensus of 5.2%. Meanwhile, the Core rate met expectations by rising 0.4% in March. As a result of the inflation figures, the US Dollar experienced a decline, with the DXY reaching weekly lows near 101.50, and US yields sinking. The US 10-year bond yield plunged from 3.44% to 3.37%, while Wall Street futures rose significantly. The potential for a new long extension is promising, as the 2.060 target may be reached.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
21
EUR/USD Shows Potential for Growth...In the early Asian session today, the EUR/USD currency pair made a noteworthy move by touching the psychological resistance level of 1.1000. This marks the first time in over two months that the major currency pair has reached this level. While the pair is facing obstacles in extending its rally beyond this point, the upside momentum is still holding strong. This is partly due to the fact that the United States inflation has softened as predicted by market participants. As of now, it remains to be seen whether the price will continue to rise throughout the day. Nevertheless, the current trend suggests that there is potential for further growth.
Long
by FOREXN1
11
GBP/USD: Anticipated Breakthrough at 1.2525 and 1.2600 Levels!According to recent market trends, GBP/USD is anticipated to face resistance at 1.2525, followed by 1.2600. The currency pair has dropped to an intraday low around 1.2480, coinciding with the release of mostly discouraging economic data for February from the UK. The pullback in the Cable pair could be attributed to the US Dollar's corrective rebound, which comes amidst a sluggish trading session and a sparse economic calendar. In February 2023, the UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) saw a marginal growth of 0.0%, failing to meet the expected 0.1% increase, and falling short of the 0.4% recorded in the previous month. While YoY Industrial Production improved, the MoM figures showed a decline. Further analysis of the data revealed an increase in the UK's trade deficit, while the Index of Services remained unchanged.
Long
by FOREXN1
3