Get started

Forexn1

USD/CAD falls as US Dollar weakens and oil prices riseDuring early trading on Thursday, the USD/CAD pair saw a decline, hitting its intraday low near 1.3700. This came after a two-day absence, as the US Dollar weakened and oil prices increased. The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw its sixth consecutive day of decline, with bears pushing the index towards the 102.30 mark. This decline occurred despite the Federal Reserve's announcement of a 0.25% rate hike, as dovish concerns about the US central bank's next move and fears regarding the US banking sector persisted. While the Fed's rate hike matched market expectations, its statement regarding "some additional policy firming may be appropriate" instead of "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate" pushed back policy hawks. The statements made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen were also important. Powell indicated that there would be no rate cuts for this year, providing breathing space for greenback bears. Yellen, on the other hand, ruled out considering "blanket insurance" for bank deposits. Bloomberg also reported that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation would delay the bid deadline for a Silicon Valley private bank. Despite a surprise build in weekly inventories, WTI crude oil continued its upward trend, rising for the fourth consecutive day and ignoring the downbeat EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change report. This was driven by optimism surrounding China and hopes for increased energy demand. Looking ahead, second-tier US and Canadian statistics may entertain traders ahead of Friday's key data, which includes Canadian Retail Sales and US Durable Goods Orders for January and February.
by FOREXN1
3
EUR/USD:FOMC Announcement and European Market DevelopmentsThere are mixed signals regarding the EUR today. On one hand, the FOMC announcement could trigger a recovery in the USD, which would likely have a negative impact on the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, there are positive developments in the European market, specifically in terms of efforts to contain adverse side-effects of the UBS-CS deal, which could boost European sentiment. However, there is also uncertainty around the baseline assessments of inflation and growth, given recent financial market tensions. Regarding the ECB, President Lagarde expressed concern about the ongoing war in Europe and the high inflation rate, and the ECB has raised interest rates by 50 basis points to ensure the 2% inflation target is met. While growth is predicted to be at 1%, underlying price pressures remain strong, and the bank will continue to monitor market tensions closely and be data-dependent in its policy rate decisions. The next meeting is scheduled for 4 May 2023. Overall, the EUR may be influenced by a combination of factors, including the FOMC announcement, developments in the European market, and ongoing inflation and growth concerns.
by FOREXN1
9
GOLD Could Rally Toward $2,000 on Fed's Dovish LanguageThe price of gold is currently below $1,950 and may see a bullish trend as XAU/USD bulls may make one last attempt to rise before the Federal Reserve meets. Mehta suggests that for any recovery to occur, gold would need to be accepted above the psychological level of $1,950 and reach the previous resistance level of $1,960. If the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish outlook, it could cause gold buyers to push the price back to $2,000 and potentially even higher. However, if the previous day's low of $1,935 is breached, selling interest may be reinforced, leading to a potential drop towards the $1,900 level. Should Fed Chairman Jerome Powell adopt a hawkish stance, gold's bullish commitments may be challenged, and the price could fall to the March 17 low of $1,918 before potentially dropping further to the $1,900 round level. "The anticipation of a 25bps increase in the Federal Funds Rate by the Fed will likely hurt the price of gold . Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset, and when interest rates rise, it becomes less attractive to investors seeking higher yields."
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FOREXN1
7
USD/JPY Awaits FOMC Decision with Subdued Trading.The USD/JPY pair is experiencing a lack of clear direction on Wednesday and is trading within a narrow range. The subdued performance of the US dollar is holding back the pair, while a positive risk sentiment is providing some support. Traders seem hesitant and are waiting for the highly-anticipated FOMC decision. The USD/JPY pair is struggling to build on the gains of over 150 pips from the previous day and is trading below the weekly high reached earlier in the day, hovering around the 132.55-132.60 area. Investors are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the FOMC monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled to be announced later during the US session. The Fed is expected to deliver a smaller 25 bps rate hike, and the focus will be on the accompanying monetary policy statement, updated economic projections, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference remarks. Investors will be looking for fresh cues on the future rate-hike path, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term US dollar price movements and providing a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair. The US dollar is currently trading near its lowest level since February 14, which is acting as a headwind for the major. However, the stable performance of equity markets is undermining the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY), which is providing some support to the pair. The Fed recently unveiled an enhanced seven-day dollar swap to add liquidity into the monetary system, while the news that UBS will rescue Credit Suisse in a $3.24 billion deal has eased fears of a global banking crisis and boosted investors' confidence. These factors, along with the more dovish stance adopted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), are likely to continue supporting the USD/JPY pair, at least in the short term.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USOIL: WTI on track to record second weekly loss.WTI is set to end its second week in negative territory and trades close to levels seen earlier this month. The decline in crude prices can be attributed to Russia's recent output and export cuts announcement, as well as a decrease in demand for oil in the US, evident from the accumulation of inventory over the past week. However, renewed optimism surrounding China's reopening and upgraded forecasts for global growth by IEA and OPEC for 2023 are keeping crude prices from completely collapsing. In this report, we will explore the catalysts driving WTI's price. A report from Reuters last week revealed that Russia would reduce its crude production by 500 thousand barrels per day in March, accounting for approximately 5% of its output, in response to the West imposing a price cap on Russian oil and oil-related products. The G7, the European Union, and Australia agreed to ban the use of Western-supplied maritime insurance, finance, and brokering for seaborne Russian oil priced above $60 per barrel. In addition, Russia plans to cut oil exports to western ports by up to 25% in March and re-route exports towards the east. The International Energy Agency raised its expectations for global oil demand in 2023 to 2 million barrels per day, with the rise attributed to China's reopening and an improvement in Europe's economic outlook. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a buildup of almost 10 million barrels in crude oil inventories yesterday, exceeding expectations for a mere increase of 1.2 million. This is the second straight week of significant inventory buildups and could be one of the reasons why WTI prices dropped during yesterday's session. Later today, the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly crude inventories report is due, and it is expected to capture the attention of energy traders. Forecasts indicate that EIA's stocks would increase by 2 million barrels after last week's 16-million-barrel buildup. However, the inventory figure may end up being much higher than expected, based on yesterday's API release. The continuous buildup of EIA's inventories over the past eight weeks suggests weakened demand for crude and increases the likelihood of WTI prices declining further. Finally, the Baker Hughes oil rig count on Friday showed a decline in the number of active oil rigs in the US by 2, indicating a slowdown in demand.
TVC:USOILShort
by FOREXN1
24
EUR/USD: Price to Test Resistance Area Before a Decline.What to Expect for EUR Today: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and ECB President Lagarde's Speech Today, the EUR may face downward pressure as the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is predicted to drop from 28.1 to 14.9. This could lead to reduced foreign investment and a weaker euro. Regarding the central bank's notes, the ECB raised interest rates by 50 basis points to meet the 2% inflation target. Despite projected inflation averaging 5.3% in 2023 and growth at 1%, underlying price pressures remain strong. The bank will remain vigilant of market tensions and rely on data for policy rate decisions. The next meeting is set for 4 May 2023.
Short
by FOREXN1
28
EUR/USD: Economists at Danske Bank Predict Lower in 6-12 MonthsDanske Bank economists maintain their strategic case for a lower EUR/USD, predicting the pair to reach 1.02 in the next six-to-twelve months. They argue that this will be driven by tighter financial conditions, relative rates, and asset demand, along with new energy and real rate shocks. In this article, we will explore Danske Bank's reasoning for this forecast and the potential implications for traders and investors. Introduction The EUR/USD has been trending downwards, with the pair currently trading at around 1.19. Danske Bank economists have long predicted a strategic case for a lower EUR/USD, citing factors such as relative terms of trade, real rates, and relative unit labour costs. However, they now also see the potential for a short-term dip in the currency pair due to tightening financial conditions, relative rates, and asset demand. Factors Driving the EUR/USD Forecast Danske Bank's forecast for a lower EUR/USD is based on a combination of long-term and short-term factors. These include: Relative Terms of Trade Danske Bank economists argue that the Eurozone's terms of trade have been deteriorating relative to the US. This is due to the EU's high dependence on exports and a less competitive manufacturing sector compared to the US. As a result, the bank expects the EUR/USD to trend lower over the long term. Real Rates and Growth Prospects Danske Bank also believes that real rates and growth prospects are more favorable in the US than in the Eurozone. The bank notes that the US has outperformed the Eurozone in terms of GDP growth, and that US real rates are higher. This gives the US a relative advantage, which is likely to drive down the value of the EUR/USD. Relative Unit Labour Costs Finally, Danske Bank argues that relative unit labour costs are also more favorable in the US than in the Eurozone. This is due to factors such as wage growth and productivity. As a result, the bank expects the EUR/USD to trend lower over the long term. Tightening Financial Conditions In addition to these long-term factors, Danske Bank also cites tightening financial conditions as a potential driver of a short-term dip in the EUR/USD. The bank notes that financial conditions have already tightened recently, but expects more tightening to come. This could be driven by factors such as relative rates and asset demand. New Energy/Real Rate Shocks Finally, Danske Bank notes that a return to the September lows would require new energy and real rate shocks. While these are difficult to predict, they could have a significant impact on the EUR/USD. Implications for Traders and Investors For traders and investors, Danske Bank's forecast for a lower EUR/USD has important implications. Firstly, it suggests that long positions in the EUR/USD may be less favorable than short positions. Secondly, it suggests that traders and investors should be cautious about entering long positions in Eurozone stocks and bonds. Conclusion Danske Bank's economists maintain their strategic case for a lower EUR/USD, predicting the pair to reach 1.02 in the next six-to-twelve months. This forecast is based on a combination of long-term factors such as relative terms of trade, real rates, and relative unit labour costs, along with short-term factors such as tightening financial conditions and potential new energy and real rate shocks. For traders and investors, this forecast suggests that short positions in the EUR/USD may be more favorable than long positions, and that caution should be exercised when investing in Eurozone stocks and bonds.
Short
by FOREXN1
24
Gold Prices: Analyzing Immediate Support and Resistance LevelsGold is one of the most popular investments globally, particularly during times of economic and political instability. As a precious metal, its value is widely recognized and it is considered a safe-haven asset. Gold prices are affected by a range of factors, including economic and political events, market trends, and demand and supply dynamics. In this article, we'll analyze the immediate support and resistance levels for gold prices. What is Immediate Support and Resistance? Before delving into the analysis, let's first define what is meant by immediate support and resistance. Support refers to the level at which demand for a particular asset is strong enough to prevent its price from falling further. On the other hand, resistance is the level at which supply is strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. Immediate support and resistance refer to the nearest levels to the current market price that have previously acted as support and resistance. February High of $1,960 - Immediate Support for Gold Prices The recent performance of gold prices has been largely driven by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy. The February high of $1,960 is now considered the immediate support level for gold prices. If prices fall below this level, the psychological $1,950 level will be put to the test. This support level is critical as it has been tested multiple times in the past and has held strong, preventing prices from falling further. Multi-Month High at $1,991 - Resistance for Gold Buyers On the flip side, gold buyers need to take out the multi-month high at $1,991 in order to aim for the $2,000 threshold. This level of resistance is significant as it has been a key level in the past and has prevented prices from rising further. If gold prices can break above this level and gain acceptance above the latter, it will be critical to resuming the recent uptrend toward the $2,050 static support. Factors Affecting Gold Prices Gold prices are affected by a range of factors, including: Economic and Political Events Gold prices are sensitive to economic and political events. In times of economic instability, investors often flock to gold as a safe-haven asset. Similarly, in times of political turmoil, gold prices may rise as investors seek stability. Market Trends Market trends can also have a significant impact on gold prices. For example, a weak U.S. dollar can lead to an increase in gold prices, as investors look to hedge against inflation. Demand and Supply Dynamics Like any other commodity, gold prices are also affected by demand and supply dynamics. For example, increased demand from India, one of the largest consumers of gold, can drive prices higher. Conclusion In conclusion, the immediate support and resistance levels for gold prices are critical to understanding market trends and making informed investment decisions. The February high of $1,960 is the immediate support level for gold prices, while the multi-month high at $1,991 is the resistance level for gold buyers. Several factors, including economic and political events, market trends, and demand and supply dynamics, can affect gold prices.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FOREXN1
11
USD/CAD Reverses Early Losses,Defends Recovery Moves in TriangleIntroduction The USD/CAD currency pair is a popular currency pair traded in the forex market. The pair represents the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, with fluctuations in exchange rates being influenced by a range of factors including global economic trends, political events, and interest rates. This article discusses the recent reversal of early losses by USD/CAD, as well as its defense of previous day's recovery moves inside a one-week-old symmetrical triangle. Early Asian Session Losses During the early Asian session, USD/CAD experienced losses. The market was reacting to economic data from China, which showed a slowdown in its economic growth. This affected the demand for commodities, such as oil, which is a significant export for Canada. This led to a decrease in the demand for the Canadian dollar, resulting in the decline in USD/CAD exchange rate. Mild Gains in Early Monday Morning in Europe However, during the early Monday morning in Europe, USD/CAD was able to reverse its early losses and print mild gains around 1.3735. This can be attributed to a few factors, including the US Federal Reserve's announcement that it will maintain its current policy stance on interest rates, as well as the positive sentiment in the US stock market. These factors increased the demand for the US dollar, leading to the upward movement of USD/CAD exchange rate. One-Week-Old Symmetrical Triangle USD/CAD has also defended its recovery moves inside a one-week-old symmetrical triangle. A symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern that is formed when the price is making higher lows and lower highs, creating a triangle shape. This pattern represents a period of consolidation in the market, where buyers and sellers are evenly matched in terms of demand and supply. As a result, it can act as a precursor to a significant price movement in either direction. Conclusion In conclusion, USD/CAD has recently experienced a reversal of early losses, printing mild gains around 1.3735 during early Monday morning in Europe. This can be attributed to a range of factors, including economic data from China, the US Federal Reserve's announcement on interest rates, and positive sentiment in the US stock market. USD/CAD has also defended its recovery moves inside a one-week-old symmetrical triangle, which could signal a potential price movement in either direction in the near future.
Long
by FOREXN1
7
AUD/USD Risk Proximity and Volatility:What Traders Need to KnowAUD/USD Takes a Leg Higher in Early Asian Trading: A Look at the Factors Driving Risk Appetite In early Asian trading, AUD/USD saw a surge in risk proximity, hitting the 0.6730 mark before retracing and trading unchanged. This movement was accompanied by a broader expansion of risk appetite, particularly in high beta currencies, thanks to coordinated efforts from major central banks aimed at addressing liquidity concerns. In this article, we will take a closer look at the factors driving this movement in AUD/USD, and what traders can expect in the near future. Factors Driving AUD/USD Risk Proximity Central Bank Coordination The main factor driving the surge in risk proximity for AUD/USD was the coordinated action taken by major central banks to address the liquidity crunch in financial markets. This included the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank, who all agreed to provide dollar liquidity to their respective banking systems. This helped to ease concerns about liquidity and increase investor confidence, driving risk appetite and boosting high beta currencies like the Australian dollar. Economic Data Another factor driving risk proximity for AUD/USD is the release of positive economic data, particularly from China, which is Australia's largest trading partner. This data included a better-than-expected reading for the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which showed a rise to 51.7 in December from 51.8 in November. This suggests that China's manufacturing sector is expanding at a faster pace, which bodes well for Australia's export-oriented economy. US Political Uncertainty US political uncertainty has also been a factor driving risk proximity for AUD/USD, with the ongoing impeachment proceedings against President Trump contributing to a general sense of unease in the markets. This has led some investors to seek out safe-haven assets, like gold, which has seen a surge in value in recent weeks. However, the coordinated action by central banks to address liquidity concerns has helped to mitigate the impact of this uncertainty on AUD/USD. Trade Tensions Finally, ongoing trade tensions between the US and China have also been a factor driving risk proximity for AUD/USD, as Australia is heavily dependent on Chinese demand for its exports. However, recent signs of progress in trade negotiations between the two countries, including the signing of a phase one trade deal, have helped to ease concerns and boost investor confidence. What Traders Can Expect in the Near Future Looking ahead, traders can expect continued volatility in AUD/USD, as the factors driving risk proximity are likely to remain in play for the foreseeable future. Ongoing trade tensions and political uncertainty in the US could continue to weigh on the markets, while positive economic data from China and central bank action to address liquidity concerns could help to support risk appetite and boost high beta currencies like the Australian dollar. Conclusion In summary, the surge in risk proximity for AUD/USD in early Asian trading was driven by a combination of factors, including central bank coordination, positive economic data, US political uncertainty, and ongoing trade tensions. Traders can expect continued volatility in the near future, as these factors are likely to remain in play. However, the coordinated action by major central banks to address liquidity concerns has helped to mitigate the impact of these factors on AUD/USD.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
BITCOIN:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + TECHNICAL ANALYSISHello there! If you're a fan of blockchain-based tokens and are considering investing in cryptocurrencies, you might want to consider purchasing the "progenitor" of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin. Although cryptocurrencies are generally known for their volatility, investing in an expensive token like Bitcoin can somewhat reduce that volatility compared to low-cost cryptocurrencies like Ripple and Cardano, which tend to move more quickly. It's important to note that even though Bitcoin is a five-figure token, it's not incapable of skyrocketing. In fact, under the right conditions, it can provide the perfect combination of stability and explosive growth. While critics have predicted Bitcoin's demise every time it has collapsed since its inception in 2009, it has always fully recovered, and a full recovery to its previous peak of $69,000 would represent a 3-fold step. Critics of cryptocurrency like to say, "It's different this time," but Bitcoin's impeccable track record of fully recovering from at least half a dozen crashes puts the burden of proof on the bears until proven otherwise. So why did Bitcoin collapse this time around? Concerns about increased regulation of cryptocurrencies and the issue of legitimacy are certainly part of the bigger picture, but the main factor contributing to its fall, which began in late 2021, was undoubtedly the market's fear of rising interest rates. However, it's important to consider whether Bitcoin is really competing with government bonds like stocks of big companies are. Currently, 401(k) plans and other large investment funds consist primarily of stocks and bonds, and you won't see bonds competing with Bitcoin for space in these funds. If anything will be temporarily squeezed out of this list when bond yields rise sharply, it will most likely be stocks. Bitcoin's battle for legitimacy and regulatory recognition is currently being fought in the courts. Grayscale has sued the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), claiming that the regulator unfairly rejected its application to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund into a full-fledged spot Bitcoin ETF. Grayscale claims that approved Bitcoin futures ETFs already exist, and it's not being consistent or impartial. Bitcoin is too big and influential to ignore; its market value has already surpassed that of Visa and Mastercard. At this point, regulators must be quick to check and slow to embrace new technology, especially when it disrupts the status quo. While there's no guarantee that a legal Bitcoin ETF will appear in the near future, if and when it finally does, it could open up convenient and affordable access to the world of cryptocurrency to the masses. The creation of Bitcoin-based investment vehicles available through popular stock brokers, 401(k) plans, and investment advisors should be a watershed moment. So, feel free to consider taking a moderately large position in Bitcoin before that spaceship leaves the launch pad. Bitcoin's past propensity for a dynamic recovery when it finally happens suggests the possibility - perhaps even the likelihood - of a rocketing takeoff sooner rather than later.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by FOREXN1
17
EUR/USD Price May Drop Soon - SHORTAccording to the Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia from UOB Group, there is a possibility of a further decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate in the near future. In their recent analysis, they highlighted that the EUR could weaken further but a clear break of 1.0500 is unlikely. Although the EUR traded mostly sideways with a brief drop to 1.0548 in London trade, the price movements appear to be consolidative, and further sideways trading is likely. Looking at the next 1-3 weeks, the strategists pointed out that the EUR has already plunged to a low of 1.0514, and while the rapid drop appears to be too fast, too soon, the risk of EUR dropping further has increased. It remains to be seen if EUR can break the major support at 1.0470. The strategists maintain their view that only a breach of the strong resistance level at 1.0680 would indicate that the downside risk has faded. Therefore, traders need to remain vigilant and watch out for any significant movements in the exchange rate in the coming days.
Short
by FOREXN1
17
GBP/CHF:Bank of England Holds Emergency Talks Over Credit SuisseAccording to a report by the Telegraph, the Bank of England has been engaged in emergency talks with international counterparts as concerns continue to escalate over the deteriorating situation at Swiss bank, Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S). The bank has been experiencing significant financial struggles in recent times, leading to uncertainty and instability in the wider financial markets. As one of the largest and most influential financial institutions in Switzerland, Credit Suisse Group AG plays a significant role in the global financial system. Given the bank's current financial predicament, many experts are worried about the potential ripple effects that could be felt throughout the international financial landscape. As a result, the Bank of England has been closely monitoring the situation and working closely with other central banks and financial regulators to develop a coordinated response. The goal of these emergency talks is to identify potential risks and vulnerabilities in the global financial system and to develop appropriate measures to mitigate these risks. Overall, the situation at Credit Suisse Group AG has raised concerns about the broader health of the global financial system, and many experts are closely watching developments in the coming days and weeks to assess the potential impact on markets and the wider economy.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
USD/JPY Analysis: Bears Eye 131.00 as Bulls Await 4-Hour SupportLooking ahead, the level of 131.00 is being closely watched by USD/JPY bears, as it may come under pressure in the coming days. Bulls, on the other hand, will need to hold on to 4-hour support. Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 133.40, up from Thursday's Tokyo stock market close of 132.74. Following Credit Suisse's announcement of borrowing up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank to boost liquidity and investor confidence, currency markets were relatively calm on Thursday. The Yen has been trading sideways against the US Dollar, with USD/JPY near trendline resistance, as shown in the daily chart. The daily chart reveals that the market is on the bearish side of the trendline, while also being weighed down by both horizontal and dynamic trendline resistance. The price has fallen below the prior dominant bull trend and support structure, making a downside case possible. However, if the bulls break the resistance, there is a chance of a move higher to test the 135.20s in a 50% mean reversion.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD may continue to fall? ⤵️Let's take a look at some fundamental news regarding EUR/USD: Commerzbank's economists have reported uncertainty regarding the market reaction to the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision today. There are doubts whether the market reaction to the ECB decision will be "normal," given the current situation. The question is, what will the ECB decide today, and how will the FX market react? According to Commerzbank, the market's reaction to the Euro in the case of a 50 basis points (bps) step by the ECB is not straightforward. For a 50 bps rate step to have a EUR-positive effect today, the market must believe that such a step is appropriate. However, if FX traders perceive the situation of the European financial system as fragile, they might consider a 50 bps step to be a mistake. Consequently, they could conclude that this would require much stronger or earlier ECB rate cuts, leading to a EUR-negative effect. It is not certain whether the FX market thinks in such a manner, and perhaps it is not even likely. That said, the possibility cannot be completely ruled out. Hence, the FX market reaction to the ECB's decision remains highly uncertain. On the other hand, a 25 bps step by the ECB is expected to elicit a positive response from the Euro. However, this depends on how convincing ECB President Christine Lagarde is in assuring the market that if the financial system really does calm down, the "missing" 25 bps will be made up for. If the market is convinced of this possibility, it is more likely to respond positively to a 25 bps step. Therefore, the ECB's decision today and the market's reaction to it remain highly unpredictable. It all boils down to how well the ECB can convince the market that its decision is appropriate and necessary, given the current economic situation in Europe.
Short
by FOREXN1
31
AUD/USD remains in bearish channel with AB=CD pattern forming ⤵️As described in our previous ideas, the AUD/USD is still inside a bearish channel, where the dynamic trend line has worked as support to prevent the price from correcting. In the last session, our attention was focused on the formation of an AB=CD pattern, which sees the Target D at the price of 0.6500 before a new correction. The C point of the pattern had a pullback on the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and our idea and analysis remain with the short setup bias. Thank you.
Short
by FOREXN1
11
USD/CAD:Oil Weakness and Financial Turmoil Shake Markets ⤴️On Wednesday, the USD/CAD experienced a wild ride due to renewed pressure on oil prices, which weakened the Canadian Dollar and sent the pair to the 1.3800 level. The price pressure on oil started with rumors swirling around Credit Suisse bank, which was seen as a potential victim of the fallout from Silicon Valley Bank's financial crisis. This led to some perceived threats attributed to Credit Suisse that could have been tangled up with SVB's situation, causing panic among investors. While all allegations against Credit Suisse's CEO have been denied, the Swiss banking regulator intervened and promised to provide liquidity solutions if needed, which did little to calm markets. The situation triggered a fresh wave of sell-offs among risky assets, with oil prices taking the biggest hit. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell below the $70 mark as investors started to worry about surging borrowing costs and the potential cracks in financial systems. The corrective downturn in oil prices that began earlier this week has given a boost to USD/CAD, but falling US Treasury yields are keeping a lid on any appreciation in the US Dollar. The pair is mainly being driven by oil prices, rather than any other factor, as the Bank of Canada has paused its rate hiking cycle. Meanwhile, the US released its Retail Sales figures and Producer Price Index (PPI) data for February on Wednesday. The Retail Sales figures were downbeat, with a MoM reading of -0.4% compared to the previous month's 3.2%, and a Control Group reading of 0.5% compared to the previous 2.3%. However, there were some signs of relief in the PPI data, with a MoM reading of -0.1% from the prior 0.3%, and a YoY reading of 4.6% from the prior 5.7%. Overall, the financial turmoil triggered by rumors surrounding Credit Suisse and concerns over oil prices has sent shockwaves through markets, causing investors to worry about the potential impact on global financial systems.
Long
by FOREXN1
3
NZD/USD Struggles Amid Concerns Over New Zealand's Q4 GDP ⤵️Despite a recent uptick in the value of the Kiwi currency, the NZD/USD pair is struggling to overcome intraday losses. The weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP figures from New Zealand have raised concerns about a potential credit rating cut for the country. The recent troubles faced by major banks in the US and Europe have also sparked fears of a return to the 2008 financial crisis, which has had a negative impact on riskier assets like the Antipodeans. Traders are keeping an eye on Goldman Sachs’ economic outlook and China’s threat to European shares as they navigate a sluggish market session. Despite a slight recovery in intraday losses, the NZD/USD pair remains depressed near 0.6160, down for the second consecutive day. The downbeat Q4 GDP figures from New Zealand have weighed heavily on the Kiwi pair, with YoY figures also falling short of expectations. Concerns about New Zealand’s credit rating have been raised due to the nation's current account deficit remaining too large. Meanwhile, the latest bank fallouts in the US and Europe, including Credit Suisse, have heightened fears of another financial crisis. On the positive side, news that Credit Suisse is seeking to borrow up to CHF50 billion from the Swiss National Bank to strengthen liquidity has eased fears somewhat. Anonymous sources have also suggested that US banks are less vulnerable to the Credit Suisse debacle. Furthermore, emergency talks by the Bank of England and market chatter suggesting no immediate negative reaction from the Federal Reserve and ECB during their monetary policy meetings have helped to calm risk aversion. Looking ahead, traders will be watching for any major movements in the bond market and any further developments regarding the bank fallouts. Second-tier US data about employment, manufacturing, and housing activities may also have an impact on the NZD/USD pair.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
AUD/USD: FIBO Levels and Stochastic Divergence for SHORT ImpulseYesterday, as previously discussed, the price within a Bearish trend experienced a pullback on the dynamic resistance, coinciding with the Fibonacci level area between 50% and 61.8%. This resulted in a potential downward impulse for the price. Furthermore, it is important to note the existence of a Divergence on the Stochastic indicator, which indicates an overbought situation. Considering these factors, it is our professional opinion that a short impulse continuation in the direction of the main trend is likely to occur. As such, it would be prudent for traders to carefully monitor these developments and position themselves accordingly.
Short
by FOREXN1
8